Another Amelia Earhart’s plane found story

Buka Island is about 600 miles northeast of Papua New Guinea. That location doesn't fit with the elapsed flight time that put Earhart near Howland Island and her radio contact with the Itasca.

Howland Island is 2,500 nautical miles from Papua New Guinea.
 
I liked this previous analysis of the radio data. Not likely that far back on course.

The TIGHR project has accumulated an amazing amount of data, but what I found with them has me fairly well convinced that their theory is wrong. I believe she had to ditch at sea somewhere near Howland Island, then floated for a few days until the airplane sank.

The most convincing pieces of data to me are radio based:
1) That she reported flying at 1000' under the clouds while searching for Howland.
2) That winds blowing from the east on a NW course would make it less likely for the course to have been south or east of the island.
3) That the weather reported at Howland was cloudy to the north and clear to the south
4) That she only had a 50W GE transmitter
5) That at a 1000' antenna height, the horizon is about 32 miles away.
6) That there was an increasing signal strength received by the USCG ship Itasca several hours before dawn culminating in a very strong signal in the hour before communications was lost
7) That Nikumaroro Island(Garner Island) is more than 400 miles away from Howland.
8) That the combination of distance, horizon, transmitter strength and signal strength make it very unlikely she was near Nikumaroro Island.
9) That the combination of transmitter strength and signal strength practically require that she was within 75 miles of Howland.

There are those who find solace in her landing on an island, surviving and fighting to survive. But the most likely result is that her plane is resting under thousands of feet of water to the NW of Howland Island where prevailing currents would have caused it to drift.
 
I liked this previous analysis of the radio data. Not likely that far back on course.

No matter the skill of the pilot, a ditched aircraft in the ocean isn’t going to float for days, even if by some miracle there wasn’t a hull breach. That plane didn’t stay above the surface for more than an hour or two at the most if it made a water landing, and that is only if it was relatively intact.
 
And they want your money just like TIGHAR.

Ain’t gonna happen.
 
No matter the skill of the pilot, a ditched aircraft in the ocean isn’t going to float for days, even if by some miracle there wasn’t a hull breach. That plane didn’t stay above the surface for more than an hour or two at the most if it made a water landing, and that is only if it was relatively intact.
You aren't taking into account the 1152 gallons worth of sealed empty fuel tanks.
 
You aren't taking into account the 1152 gallons worth of sealed empty fuel tanks.

Plus there are reports of radio signals for several days.
 
Plus there are reports of radio signals for several days.
The triagulation of radio signals that Pan Am did after her dissapperance has come into question becaus the center of the trianglulation moved every day, as in the movement of a ship. Earhart's plane couldn't transmit if it was afloat. As far as voice tramsmissions received, I believe the were real. The plane the Bill Savely's Blue Angel dive team surveyed has the characteristics of an Electra 10, the next series of dives will narrow it down.
 
At least this one is upfront that it may not be her plane.
 
Have done triangulation at sea, I am not fussed about getting inaccuracies. I once had a loran system tell me we drifted 5 miles in 5 minutes while we were anchored.

As far as radios, she had a ventral antenna which would have been underwater, but also a dorsal antenna which stretched from the top of the cockpit to each of the rudders. This would have been out of the water.
 
No matter the skill of the pilot, a ditched aircraft in the ocean isn’t going to float for days, even if by some miracle there wasn’t a hull breach. That plane didn’t stay above the surface for more than an hour or two at the most if it made a water landing, and that is only if it was relatively intact.
A C-130 ditched off the US east coast, and it wouldn't sink. Fuel tanks mostly empty, it floated for two days in rough seas and high winds, as I recall, until the Coast Guard looped a cable around it to jerk it about some, hoping to wash some bodies out. The overhead escape hatches in the cockpit and central cargo compartment were open, and the hull was breached forward, but the aft overhead hatch was closed, and the wings were intact.
 
Have done triangulation at sea, I am not fussed about getting inaccuracies. I once had a loran system tell me we drifted 5 miles in 5 minutes while we were anchored.

As far as radios, she had a ventral antenna which would have been underwater, but also a dorsal antenna which stretched from the top of the cockpit to each of the rudders. This would have been out of the water.

An antenna is only as functional as the communication device attached to it, which would include the power source.

But please understand I’m not against your argument here. It’s a fascinating mystery.
 
The plane the Bill Savely's Blue Angel dive team surveyed has the characteristics of an Electra 10, the next series of dives will narrow it down.

Those characteristics are also shared by the C-45, the military version of the Beech 18. They were widely used as cargo and liason aircraft in all theaters during WWII, including the Pacific.

As I said above, the known elapsed time by Earhart's plane between takeoff from New Guinea and reception of radio signals on the Itasca make it more than improbable that the airplane found near Buka Island is Earhart's.
 
I once had a loran system tell me we drifted 5 miles in 5 minutes while we were anchored.
I once had a loran receiver give me a 60 mile position error over the Cascades in southern Oregon.
 
I once had a LORAN unit in my 150. Then I promptly loosened a mounting screw and relieved the airplane of 3 lbs of dea weight.
 
I once had a LORAN unit in my 150. Then I promptly loosened a mounting screw and relieved the airplane of 3 lbs of dea weight.

I too had a LORAN in my 150 and before the advent of GPS, it was state of the art. Too bad budget cuts spelled it's doom as it would be a good backup for GPS outages.
 
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