Aircraft ownership forecast


Filing Flight Plan
Jun 12, 2022
Display Name

Display name:
Any forecast on Single engine prices in the next 5 years?

I mean holy cow I can’t believe how prices have soared.
Now that Covid restrictions have been lifted and gas prices are soaring airplane sale prices should stabilize,one would hope.
Over-leveraged gas-guzzlers on sale soon?
@crzepilot check out the Calling the Peak thread and a few other threads here.

People are discussing the oryxes and seem to be in two camps. I can't tell which is the majority.

1. (my camp) prices were ran up by low interest rates, several returning to flying or seeking GA as an alternative during free money COVID and sudden training demand (also COVID related - or at least accelerated by COVID) and they will correct with higher interest rates and gas prices.

2. Lack of supply of GA planes for years was eventually going to lead to the current shortage situation driving prices up, and prices may pause here, but won't come down.

IMO luxury goods and other large ticket items will suffer especially if we start to see layoffs.

I cover the grocery/retail sector at work and they've seen a shift from buying what you want to buying what you need in the past 3 months or so. Non-food holiday buying was slow coming into this weekend (fireworks/sparklers, hats, glasses etc you normally see at the grocery store heading up to the 4th). We'll see this week if that sold through . . .

Retail overall is experiencing growing inventory whereas they've been mostly sold out the past two years.
My personal outlook!!!!

Some planes that are tried a true trainers (172, 152, Warrior, Tomahawk, Beech Spot, Skipper) will command a higher prices as these are in demand. I am seeing some pretty beat up 172 going fast and going for if not asking, darn close to it. On the other hand I am seeing some Beech Sundowners and Grumman priced pretty much at vRef.

I was ready to pull the trigger a few months back, but watching what the stock market is doing, and like others have said, coming out of the backside of COVID, I'm sitting tight right now but looking.