Accidents giving GA a bad name

deonb said:
Yes and no. It depends on whether you travel to get somewhere (miles matter), or if you travel for leisure (hours matter):

Miles:
Fatal accidents (fatalities) per 100M miles:
  • GA: 7.46 (13.1)
  • Motorcycles: 38.8 (38.8)
  • Driving: 1.32 (1.47)
  • Commercial Air travel: 0.05 (1.57)
Hours:
Fatal accidents (fatalities) per 1M hours:
  • GA: 11.2 (19.7)
  • Motorcycles: 15.5 (15.5)
  • Driving: 0.528 (.588)
  • Commercial Air Travel: 0.2 (6.5)
So depending on whether you're looking at fatal accidents or fatalities, you're about the same off as a motorcycle in terms of hours, but you're MUCH better off with GA in terms of miles.
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In the miles example, what were the speeds used to determine the numbers? And am I reading it correctly that the number of fatalities in commercial air travel is about the same as driving (using miles as the measuring stick)? That seems hard to believe.
 
midcap said:
I think if we all flew as much as we drove out vehicles, our safety record would be much better also.
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Agreed.
Also, if drivers had as much training and paid as much attention as pilots, we would see fewer driving crashes.

I personally have been in 6 ground vehicular collisions over my life span. None of them were caused by me and none of them were an "accident", they were all "crashes waiting to happen". Texting, not looking both ways, failure to read signage, arrogance, pure dumba**ness etc.

But since you can buy a "license to kill" (what I call the Driver's License) for a few dollars (varies by state) with not much training, driving became inherently more dangerous due to vast recklessness of the vehicular operators (I cannot bring myself to call all of them "drivers").

Planes don't fall out of the sky often. Usually it is pilot error. Similarly, cars do not crash on their own, the operator is frequently to blame. More training and recurrent training for drivers could help but we all know that's not going to happen. :)
 
May have been mentioned but posted this in another thread:
Just did a quick search of the NTSB database last year from Jan 1 to now US only. Last year 125 fatal, this year 109. All accidents last year (US only) 763, this year 680.
 
Acrodustertoo said:
In my years as a teacher I have heard it all from the younger generation. These are college students by the way. None have ever been in a ga aircraft but almost all have an uncle or grandfather who flew. The only thing they think airplanes do is crash, they think it is dangerous as hell to fly. Most do not have a clue how an airplane works aside from the wing makes it fly.

The only exposure the majority of people have to ga is the news when one crashes.
It is only going to ge worse for ga I'm afraid, this new generation has zero interest in things that involve them getting off the couch and putting the phone down. How are they going to make a decision to spend enormous amounts of money to get their ppl and then spend enormous amounts of money on an airplane when they have no desire to getvoff their butts.
Our oldest boy just turned thirteen, as of now he wants to be a video game reviewer and tester on YouTube ! In his mind he is going to make large amounts of money doing this. I had to have a few sit downs with him to explain supply and demand principles in the workforce. We tried to get him into aviation and he said that flying would be boring! He did perk up when I told him what kind of money an airline Capt. Can make. Oh well, the world needs all kinds I guess.
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In my experience aviation is a very tuff nut to crack, I'd NEVER try to nudge someone into aviation, it's one of those thing you have to want 100% for yourself and by yourself, if you don't know off the bat that it's for you, if it doesn't feel like a calling, it ain't for you.

I would suggest to a kid, becoming a RN or ships captain, that seems to go well for folks I've met.
 
James331 said:
In my experience aviation is a very tuff nut to crack, I'd NEVER try to nudge someone into aviation, it's one of those thing you have to want 100% for yourself and by yourself, if you don't know off the bat that it's for you, if it doesn't feel like a calling, it ain't for you.

I would suggest to a kid, becoming a RN or ships captain, that seems to go well for folks I've met.
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I had our son go on an "introductory" flight last year and he absolutely loved it, he then went for a flight with my father last summer and liked that as well.
I am not trying to push him into aviation but was using the data as a way to maybe get him out of the fog his brain is in lately. He will do what he wants in the end but he is not going to be living in my basement to do it!
Every semester now I give the students a nice speech about their electronics usage. I pick a student and they tell me how many hours a day/week they spend staring at their phone r playing video games, then we total that amount for a year. That shocks them first off. Then we total up how many hours it takes to build an airplane from scratch, 1500-200 hours. In most cases these students would be able to build an airplane/car/boat/house/shop/cabin etc etc in as little as 1 1/2 years to 2 years time if they just spent their time wisely. Most give the same exact answer to that and it is " I don't have money for that". Then I have to explain to them that if they want some thing bad enough they will find a way to make it happen. I know most of them have plenty of money for beer and their diesel truck with the obnoxious stereo but don't think they have time or money to do anything constructive with their time.
 
Acrodustertoo said:
I had our son go on an "introductory" flight last year and he absolutely loved it, he then went for a flight with my father last summer and liked that as well.
I am not trying to push him into aviation but was using the data as a way to maybe get him out of the fog his brain is in lately. He will do what he wants in the end but he is not going to be living in my basement to do it!
Every semester now I give the students a nice speech about their electronics usage. I pick a student and they tell me how many hours a day/week they spend staring at their phone r playing video games, then we total that amount for a year. That shocks them first off. Then we total up how many hours it takes to build an airplane from scratch, 1500-200 hours. In most cases these students would be able to build an airplane/car/boat/house/shop/cabin etc etc in as little as 1 1/2 years to 2 years time if they just spent their time wisely. Most give the same exact answer to that and it is " I don't have money for that". Then I have to explain to them that if they want some thing bad enough they will find a way to make it happen. I know most of them have plenty of money for beer and their diesel truck with the obnoxious stereo but don't think they have time or money to do anything constructive with their time.
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If they have a diesel then they could have easily paid for flight training and bought an airplane.

Last dealer quote I saw for a new engine on my truck was about 18k.
 
teejayevans said:
I like to see a graph superimposed of estimated number of hours flown...
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Well like others have said, the per 100,000 flight hours isn't an exact science. I still think it's a fair assumption that the actual rate of accidents has been on a steady decline since the late 70s early 80s.

Same trends with both airline and military aviation. Army aviation in particular is less than 1/4 of the accident rate they had in the 70s and 80s. If they actually kept track of stats before FY72, it would be even more disproportionate.

Fact is, aircraft are safer, pilots are trained better and the services offered to them are far better than decades ago. A rash of accidents in 2016 doesn't mean it's a trend. All it does is allow the media to over exaggerate things to get viewers.
 
Cluemeister said:
In the miles example, what were the speeds used to determine the numbers? And am I reading it correctly that the number of fatalities in commercial air travel is about the same as driving (using miles as the measuring stick)? That seems hard to believe.
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Assumptions are:

GA speed: 150mph
Car & Motorcycle speed: 40mph.

From here. The data (on all 4) is a bit old - 2005. But GA and Auto figures hasn't changed that much over the last 10 years. Commercial air might have (or maybe not that much if you include non-US carriers). This is more to show Motorcycle vs. GA.
 
ronnieh said:
...Single engine piston aircraft (include light twins in this) are dangerous. This does not mean I should not have ridden bikes or flown, just that I accepted the danger. I have not been in a piston plane in many years, and plan to keep it that way. I choose to no longer take the risk...
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The last Nall Report shows mechanical causes only accounting for about 4% of fatal non-commercial fixed wing accidents, with about 82% being caused by pilots. That suggests that the risk of GA flying has far more to do with the nut behind the controls than with how many engines the plane has, or whether it has pistons.
 
midcap said:
If they have a diesel then they could have easily paid for flight training and bought an airplane.

Last dealer quote I saw for a new engine on my truck was about 18k.
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That is kind of the point of it all, they could easily afford such things in life if they really wanted it but they seem to make every excuse why it isn't possible.

The one student that I had who was showing interest in aviation came up with a grand scheme. He was going to buy an ultralight and use it for coyote hunting, with the thought of shooting from it! I had some very strong words about that. He is the same student who came into my office one day and said he had bought a conoe, then went on to say he needed a generator for the conoe. I asked what for of course out of curiosity. He says, I am going to float the Yellowstone river at night and shoot all the raccoons, this place is infested with raccoons. The generator is to power a spot light. I had a very lovely conversation with him about that undertaking.
 
For commercial air travel, it has become so safe (at least within the US and Europe), that one or two incidences will throw the number way out of proportion for a given year. We now go several years regularly with nothing happening, if you get one year where there are two or even three crashes, that number will go to hell. Then you will see the predictable public outrage, and they will completely ignor driving statistics.

For GA, the slight uptick is likely a sing that more people are flying as the economy is stable and maybe slightly better. So you get all those people who have not touched a plane in 3 years jumping back in. You may also see a small uptick with the changes in medical. Not that I am against the changes, but you will have pilots that have not flown because of failing medicals that can now get back in the air. Finally, the same uptake seems to happen every summer, when rusty pilots get the itch. So much seems to be related to frequency and practice, more than anything else. I really want to see GA thrive again, but I also know that GA thriving will mean more visible accidents, even if digging into the numbers reveal it continues to get safer.
 
Acrodustertoo said:
That is kind of the point of it all, they could easily afford such things in life if they really wanted it but they seem to make every excuse why it isn't possible.

The one student that I had who was showing interest in aviation came up with a grand scheme. He was going to buy an ultralight and use it for coyote hunting, with the thought of shooting from it! I had some very strong words about that. He is the same student who came into my office one day and said he had bought a conoe, then went on to say he needed a generator for the conoe. I asked what for of course out of curiosity. He says, I am going to float the Yellowstone river at night and shoot all the raccoons, this place is infested with raccoons. The generator is to power a spot light. I had a very lovely conversation with him about that undertaking.
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Yep, if you want to do somthing bad enough you will figure it out, but it may take time.

What I found thus far in my short time training thus far is that you really have to fit a certain personality type to be a GA pilot.

You have to have self confidence and a can do attitude and be up for a challenge and not give up when things get tough.

I just don't want to be a pilot, I want to be a safe, efficient and tidy pilot.
 
Acrodustertoo said:
That is kind of the point of it all, they could easily afford such things in life if they really wanted it but they seem to make every excuse why it isn't possible.

The one student that I had who was showing interest in aviation came up with a grand scheme. He was going to buy an ultralight and use it for coyote hunting, with the thought of shooting from it!
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Maybe the kid watched this video:

While this flying is a little nuts where legal not sure why shooting coyotes from an ultralight would be particularly an issue.
 
drotto said:
For commercial air travel, it has become so safe (at least within the US and Europe), that one or two incidences will throw the number way out of proportion for a given year. We now go several years regularly with nothing happening, if you get one year where there are two or even three crashes, that number will go to hell. Then you will see the predictable public outrage, and they will completely ignor driving statistics.

For GA, the slight uptick is likely a sing that more people are flying as the economy is stable and maybe slightly better. So you get all those people who have not touched a plane in 3 years jumping back in. You may also see a small uptick with the changes in medical. Not that I am against the changes, but you will have pilots that have not flown because of failing medicals that can now get back in the air. Finally, the same uptake seems to happen every summer, when rusty pilots get the itch. So much seems to be related to frequency and practice, more than anything else. I really want to see GA thrive again, but I also know that GA thriving will mean more visible accidents, even if digging into the numbers reveal it continues to get safer.
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I seems to me that GA Pilot's personalities tend to be a double edge sword. That same sense of adventure which gives you the itch and motivation to fly may also spill over into the risk assessment department of your psyche. I.E. gethomeitits.
MAKG1 said:
Why would you go through an instrument rating and completely avoid IMC?
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I don't think I would be able to fly enough hours to stay proficient. Not good enough, but highly proficient.

I'll say with the exception of somthing like a small layer of clouds at 1500-2000 agl.

I will say that, I want to get an IFR ticket so in case somthing does happen and I get stuck on top I can get down safely.
 
midcap said:
I don't think I would be able to fly enough hours to stay proficient. Not good enough, but highly proficient.

I'll say with the exception of somthing like a small layer of clouds at 1500-2000 agl.

I will say that, I want to get an IFR ticket so in case somthing does happen and I get stuck on top I can get down safely.
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If you can't stay proficient, you can't get down safely.

Though, honestly, I found that after getting my instrument rating, I spend a lot of time using it in one form or another. But having lots of local marine layer helps that.
 
MAKG1 said:
If you can't stay proficient, you can't get down safely.

Though, honestly, I found that after getting my instrument rating, I spend a lot of time using it in one form or another. But having lots of local marine layer helps that.
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That's a good point, maybe i will change my mind when I actually do the training.

Down here we mostly have to deal with nasty thunder storms that pop up from the gulf and are very tall but not too wide.

During the fall and spring we have a nice thin layer that seems to just linger all the time.
 
midcap said:
That's a good point, maybe i will change my mind when I actually do the training.

Down here we mostly have to deal with nasty thunder storms that pop up from the gulf and are very tall but not too wide.

During the fall and spring we have a nice thin layer that seems to just linger all the time.
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If you get your ticket, file all the time even on a CAVU day that way you'll stay proficient at least with IFR ops. You'd be surprised at how much you remember after taking a long hiatus. I hadn't flown instruments for about a year when I was doing my commercial and CFI ratings. I did an IPC and my scan was still there and I hadn't really forgotten much. As long as you have a good scan initially when you begin IFR training, I think you'll do fine.
 
jordane93 said:
If you get your ticket, file all the time even on a CAVU day that way you'll stay proficient at least with IFR ops. You'd be surprised at how much you remember after taking a long hiatus. I hadn't flown instruments for about a year when I was doing my commercial and CFI ratings. I did an IPC and my scan was still there and I hadn't really forgotten much. As long as you have a good scan initially when you begin IFR training, I think you'll do fine.
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well that's good to know
 
You have to have self confidence and a can do attitude and be up for a challenge and not give up when things get tough.
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This is so very true...and probably the big reason so many aspiring students drop out when they plateau. I'm convinced that some things like crosswind landings or short field landings just require practice, practice, practice! Some lessons my crosswind landings looked really good and then the next day a good crosswind would cause my CFI to grab the yolk on final. That is really hard and frustrating to go through. You just have to get back up and keep at it until corrections and good habits become instinct.
 
A_Valkyrie said:
This is so very true...and probably the big reason so many aspiring students drop out when they plateau. I'm convinced that some things like crosswind landings or short field landings just require practice, practice, practice! Some lessons my crosswind landings looked really good and then the next day a good crosswind would cause my CFI to grab the yolk on final. That is really hard and frustrating to go through. You just have to get back up and keep at it until corrections and good habits become instinct.
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I've tried to grab a yolk before, couldn't do it, the slippery things just won't be grabbed. Yokes are easier... ;)
 
I drank the water in Mexico and survived. Stats are representative of a sample. I am an "n of 1" and so are you. And some of us actually survive this aviation thing.

People have to decide for themselves how worried they will be about a given activity. I've found that people assess risk more by evaluating their trust in me than by looking up stats. :shrug:

Overall I think our stats would improve if we could increase the denominator - total GA hours flown. But whatever the GA accident rate may be it doesn't change the way I fly.
 
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