Does Ukraine Have the Capacity for a Doolittle Raid.

[wanttaja]

“Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”

With that caveat, is it not notable that no video has surfaced of the missile attack on the Moskva. The Ukrainians have not been shy about publishing videos of other successful attacks up to this point.

Haven't heard exactly where the explosion occurred. May have been beyond visual range of any shore-based cameras. If drones were involved in the strike (like one previous poster claimed) some of them might have been sending signals back. However, the Russians claimed the Moskva sank due to bad weather while it was being towed...which may imply that getting video might have been difficult.

Do our spy satellites have the resolution to have caught the event?

They have the resolution, but probably not the combination of resolution and coverage. Most imaging satellites are in low Earth orbit, and only cross over a given target area ~four times a day, above the horizon only 15 minutes or so...and half the passes are in the dark. Typically, imaging satellites are in sun-synchronous orbits to provide consistent lighting, so they're coming over around 10 AM or 2 PM, local time. Imaging satellites are strategic, not tactical, despite what the movies show.

What MIGHT provide more information are Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Communications Intelligence (COMINT) assets, of which the US has good orbital assets that provide near-continuous coverage. They could detect any signals related to the launch, the air defense radars of the Moskva and its escorts going active, the conversations on the radios, etc. Should be very distinctive (and instructive!).

Third, there's what *I* used to do ~45 years ago in the Air Force: non-imaging infrared satellites to detect heat-generating events. 24-hour coverage. Depending on the detection thresholds, they could have seen the launch flares, any defending missile launches, and most certainly the explosion on the Moskva (we saw the flames of the DC-10 crash in Chicago, and that was with '70s technology).

Finally, let's not forget our naval assets. Don't know if the US Navy has managed to slip a submarine into the Black Sea (hard to dive deep when you have ****s that big) but I'd suspect it'd be shadowing the Moskva and its task group. Should be very obvious if the group was trying to defend against incoming missiles.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Dana]

However, the Russians claimed the Moskva sank due to bad weather while it was being towed...which may imply that getting video might have been difficult.

That was later, wasn't it? They had already admitted the ship was damaged by explosions cause by fire, so I figured it sank while they were towing it back for repairs. But in the fog of battle, who can say?

There may well be video of it, but releasing that video might tell the enemy too much about the surveillance capabilities.

 

[wanttaja]

That was later, wasn't it? They had already admitted the ship was damaged by explosions cause by fire, so I figured it sank while they were towing it back for repairs. But in the fog of battle, who can say?

Yeah, I haven't seen anything resembling a timeline, not even the time the ship sank. It does sound like the explosion preceded the sinking by long enough to take the ship under tow, but, again, we don't know the timing.

News reports also vary in the description of the weather, from a storm to merely choppy seas. A storm would have encouraged the task group to go closer inshore. Clear weather would have made targeting a lot easier.

There may well be video of it, but releasing that video might tell the enemy too much about the surveillance capabilities.

Yeah, that old "sensitive sources and methods" issue. Showing a periscope video of missiles hitting the cruiser would reveal a weeee bit too much. We don't know what intelligence is being passed to the Ukrainians, either. They might have been given very precise location information. They may not have needed such data from us; almost certainly both us and the Ukrainians have someone in the Russian naval staff that can provide movement data.

Typically, militaries use one set of codes and transmission formats during peacetime, and switch to another during war. That way the opposing side's intelligence folks have to start from scratch when the shootin' starts.

Did the Russian go to the wartime mode when they invaded Ukraine? I tend to think not, especially with all the reports of Russian soldiers using CB radios and cell phones to try to communicate. Shouldn't have been an issue with the navy, but who knows? Even if they *did* switch to wartime mode at the start of the invasion, the world has had well over a month to break any codes. The task groups TBS (talk between ships) channels should have been utterly screaming after the explosion, and you'd think we'd be reading that stuff. Either it's "What happened? What happened?" after the explosion or "Someone get that missile!" before it.

I'm convinced the US intelligence community knows what happened....though HOW they know is not going to be revealed.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Dana]

especially with all the reports of Russian soldiers using CB radios and cell phones to try to communicate.

Wouldn't be the first time, I recall a story of one of our soldiers having to use his personal telephone credit card to call his superiors from a pay phone during the fighting in [I think it was] Grenada.

 

[wanttaja]

Sink the Moskva

By Ron Wanttaja

(to the tune of Johnny Horton's "Sink the Bismarck")

In March of twenty twenty-two, the war has just begun
The Russians had the biggest ship, with missiles and guns
The Moskva was the biggest ship, that sailed the old Black Sea
With cannons fully armed, and missiles thick as trees.

We’ll find the Russian battleship that’s making such a fuss
We have to sink the Moskva because Ukraine depends on us
We’ll elevate the Neptunes, and spin the launchers ‘round
We gotta find the Moskva, and then we’ll cut her down!

Out of a cold and dreary day, the Moskva came to around
To threaten little Snake island, Ukrainian holy ground
‘Surrender now’ the Russians said, to the men on that rocky shelf
The only answer they received was “Russians go f*** yourself!”

We’ll find the Russian battleship that’s making such a fuss
We have to sink the Moskva because Ukraine depends on us
We’ll elevate the Neptunes, and spin the launchers ‘round
We gotta find the Moskva, and then we’ll cut her down!

Weeks later Moskva came close ashore, for terror and for shock
A Neptune battery was waiting, and got good target lock
That mighty Russian battleship, is just a memory
‘Sink the Moskva’ was the battle cry that shook the seven seas!

We found that Russian battleship that was making such a fuss
We had to sink the Moskva because Ukraine depends on us
We elevated the Neptunes, and spun the launchers ‘round
We found the warship Moskva, and then we cut her down!

 

[Albany Tom]

I have no information to suggest it was, but it would be hilarious if we sunk it. Not as a thing to escalate things, but along the lines of a private message to knock off the threatening rhetoric, or you're going to find other things disappearing, around the world.

"Andrei, you've lost another submarine?"

 

[LesGawlik]

If you’re suggesting our government does not, then you’d better start digging the bomb shelter in your back yard. As soon as Russia believes that, it’s the end of the world.

Members of our government are simply looking for their next scam to profit from, or the next way they can sell out the US. Or, they don't know where they are. As if that is not bad enough, it is painfully obvious to the entire world.

 

[Sinistar]

Some interesting info coming out of all this.

Never realized the sunk Russian ship was built in the Ukrainian ship yards.

Supposedly the Ukrainians had a somewhat similar ship and purposely scuttled it in the start of the conflict...f that...war.

The Russians spend way more on submarines than surface navy. My understanding is they are supposedly operating up to 6 kilo class boats in the area right now..crazy underwater environment to get mixed up in...but the US and British will take that challenge. Would be awesome if we could silently off all those boats.

The Russian military is really surprisingly not what I expected.

without his nukes in play: If we could establish quick air dominance a couple spectre gunships and unleash 15..20 A10's and this thing is over in 2-3 days max.

Hopefully this doesn't thread lock it. I totally don't get why we keep announcing aid amounts and types of hardware. It should be a nice heavy Neverending supply sent secretly. Nothing tje Russians can do about that. Actions, not words. Pretty sad if its just to get votes. Nothing would be more awesome than the Ukrainians kicking them out and us just biting our lip and letting them have all the hard earned credit instead of us trying to get accolades for helping.

And when is enough civilian casualties? Do we sit back until its 100,000, 200,000..we should have jumped into this thing right away as secretly as possible and brutally. Putin is into for a month now and will never back down.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

You are way too generous.....they ain't that smart.

Members of our government are simply looking for their next scam to profit from, or the next way they can sell out the US. Or, they don't know where they are. As if that is not bad enough, it is painfully obvious to the entire world.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

While my sentiments are with you, in response I think that as a democracy, we shouldn't be silently funding wars. I also think that there is probably much more going on in terms of logistical, Intel and materiel support than is being made public. I don't think what were doing is to gain votes. As far as a never ending supply, should the government fall, as long as there is a Ukrainian insurgency I believe that will happen.

"Without nukes in play"...if only. But it can also be argued that but for nukes in play, this invasion wouldn't have happened. Ace in the hole and all that.

 

[Palmpilot]

German pilots turn hobby into life-saving mission for Ukrainians in need

BERLIN, April 14 (Reuters) - Rene Laumann's childhood dream of being a professional pilot did not come true, but flying became his hobby and is now part of a humanitarian mission.

After Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Laumann started flying small planes on 3-1/2 hour trips to Poland to deliver medical aid to war victims and transport refugees with special needs to Germany.

Over 4.6 million people have fled Ukraine to neighbouring countries since Moscow launched what it calls a "special operation" - the biggest attack on a European state since 1945. More than half of those have gone to Poland, according to United Nations data.

Laumann, 35, is among a group of amateur German pilots who formed Ukraine Air Rescue, a humanitarian initiative using their planes. Five of them regularly fly between the German city of Mainz near Frankfurt and Rzeszow in Poland.

"We have already carried out 20 flights and we transported around 20 people," Silke Hammer, a spokesperson for the group, said in an interview. "Today, we are taking a stroke patient to Cologne."

The pilots transport medical supplies for cancer patients, first-aid kits for bone fractures, styptic drugs and medicines that need to be refrigerated, such as insulin.

At Rzeszow airport, the pilots take on Ukrainian refugees with special needs to an airport near the German city of Bonn to receive further support.

"These are passengers who can't be easily transported overland because they have serious health problems. Some of them are probably children," Laumann said.

"You can never be 100% sure about what to expect. You just have to see."​