Whooping cough is back... again

[Pi1otguy]

This time it's an epidemic level 600+% increase in WA.

Today Secretary of Health Mary Selecky announced that whooping cough disease has reached epidemic levels in Washington. So far in 2012, 640 cases have been reported in 23 counties as of March 31. This compares to 94 cases during this same time period last year, putting Washington on-pace to have the highest number of reported cases in decades.

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2012_news/12-038.htm

Is this just a slowly spreading epidemic following the same issue in CA a year or so ago from the decades of parents opting out of vaccines or is this a new strain for which a vaccine doesn't exist?

Could it be people are specifically skipping the tDap shot due to the obvious side effects? Each and every tDap shot I remember involved days of soreness & extreme fatigue that sapped my will to do anything.

 

[wabower]

My Dad died at 76 from lung disorder that was diagnosed when he was late 60's. It was a byproduct of whooping cough when he was a kid. Bad stuff.

 

[Doggtyred]

This is primarily the effect of decreased vaccination. Herd immunity requires >80% vaccination to protect the few who CANNOT be vaccinated due to health or allergy reasons

That crackpot in Britain who got folks thinking vaccines cause autism bears much responsibility for misleading people. To the point he has blood on his hands.

People forget that these diseases are deadly or debilitating (the old ones -polio, pertussis , diphtheria, etc, even chickenpox can kill and maim). And they forgot or never knew how bad it could be, BECAUSE vaccines were so effective at preventing disease.

 

[Henning]

Of course there are! There are nutcases on this board that are pregnant right now (supposedly) that argue vehemently against the evil of immunization.

 

[bbchien]

Unfortunately we can't just let them morons who oppose vaccination die. We rely on HERD immunity to protect the vulnerable.

Pa Ingalls (Laura Ingall's Wilder's father) is supposed to have died from it.

This nation is lost. Lost lost lost.....

 

[murphey]

Could it be people are specifically skipping the tDap shot due to the obvious side effects? Each and every tDap shot I remember involved days of soreness & extreme fatigue that sapped my will to do anything.

That reaction varies. I had tDap a few months ago with no reaction other than the waiting time at the clinic.

 

[weilke]

Once the percentage of crazed granola-eaters gets beyond about 22%, a civilization is doomed. The west coast is getting there.

 

[DavidWhite]

Unfortunately we can't just let them morons who oppose vaccination die. We rely on HERD immunity to protect the vulnerable.

Pa Ingalls (Laura Ingall's Wilder's father) is supposed to have died from it.

This nation is lost. Lost lost lost.....

I genuinely worry when the good doctor posts something like this.

 

[DavidWhite]

I remember they had 2 or 3 cases of whooping cough at my school when I was in 2nd or 3rd grade. Nasty stuff.

 

[John221us]

Once the percentage of crazed granola-eaters gets beyond about 22%, a civilization is doomed. The west coast is getting there.

The west coast is quite sane, though a bit more liberal, possibly, in places (nothing wrong with that). To find the true nut cases, you much venture inland to the more isolated and rural areas where militias and communes thrive. It is your first amendment schizophrenics that are convinced that immunization is a government plot to control our free will and refuse to participate.

 

[jesse]

Hm. I honestly have no idea what I have or haven't been vaccinated for. The last vaccination I remember getting was in early middle school.

 

[Henning]

Once the percentage of crazed granola-eaters gets beyond about 22%, a civilization is doomed. The west coast is getting there.

We have a planet full of pots and kettles all of the same light absorbing pigmentation. You are no different that they, you just have a different subject that you are an idiot about that will deny the progress of mankind. That's why the entire planet is doomed. If Earth was a TV show it would be called Moronanthon.

 

[steingar]

An epidemic of a disease easily vaccinated against. I'm afraid I'm with Bruce on this one. I'm really not looking forward to the Polio and Smallpox epidemics. They're still extant in the world, and far worse than Whooping cough.

By Odin I never thought to see such a thing in my lifetime.

 

[Henning]

An epidemic of a disease easily vaccinated against. I'm afraid I'm with Bruce on this one. I'm really not looking forward to the Polio and Smallpox epidemics. They're still extant in the world, and far worse than Whooping cough.

By Odin I never thought to see such a thing in my lifetime.

If you make another 20 years you'll see what happens when the fresh water runs low and we don't have the energy online to deal with it and 9 billion people.

The real truth of the matter is though that these diseases need to come back. We overstepped with modern medicine and saving lives, we really have. Look at the population scale of the planet, it existed comfortably at around a half a billion people for all of recorded history until the just before the last century. With the advent of sulfa drugs and immunizations, the population quickly ramped up to 2.5 billion, and then the biggie hit. The most evil thing that has ever befallen the course of humanity; antibiotics. With the advent of antibiotics we basically spit at natures ability to limit our population to a level that Earth can support. Modern medicine has turned the human race into a disease on the planet, a pest that destroys everything in its path as it finds what it needs to consume.

The problem is that people are short sighted and only see the side of an issue they want to see. Yes, it's wonderful that little Timmy didn't die and a family didn't have to grieve at that time. But grief is a natural constituent of our lives, and with all procrastinated things we don't like, this just gets worse with time and when it finally catches up, the results are scales of magnitude worse than they would have been with no intervention.

What we need to restrict medicine to is quality of life issues, not quantity. If you're gonna die from it, you die. If you're not gonna die from it, lets make sure it doesn't reduce your quality of life or your productivity.

If we just ban antibiotics across the world, the population would be back to manageable levels in a few decades, and the selection criteria for population reduction would be as egalitarian as nature her self. There will also be an evolutionary improvement in disease resistant genetics at the end.

 

[weilke]

The west coast is quite sane, though a bit more liberal, possibly, in places (nothing wrong with that). To find the true nut cases, you much venture inland to the more isolated and rural areas where militias and communes thrive. It is your first amendment schizophrenics that are convinced that immunization is a government plot to control our free will and refuse to participate.

The militant bible-thumpers tend to be spread out further, they dont infiltrate whole communities, states and continents like the granola eaters. The last two major whooping cough outbreaks have been in Cali and Washington state, not in rural Nebraska. Some of this is related to farm-worker communities with limited access to healthcare and a high proportion of abroad born children. But yes, the bible-thumpers are a problem for vaccine control of communicable diseases. This is from MMWR regarding measles:

Unvaccinated persons accounted for 105 (89%) of the 118 cases. Among the 45 U.S. residents aged 12 months−19 years who acquired measles, 39 (87%) were unvaccinated, including 24 whose parents claimed a religious or personal exemption and eight who missed opportunities for vaccination. Among the 42 U.S. residents aged ≥20 years who acquired measles, 35 (83%) were unvaccinated, including six who declined vaccination because of philosophical objections to vaccination. Of the 33 U.S. residents who were vaccine-eligible and had traveled abroad, 30 were unvaccinated and one had received only 1 of the 2 recommended doses.

The problem is that the CDC has to be so damn PC about how they word their comments and is careful to report their data in a way that nobody can actually figure out which community is affected.

 

[astanley]

I'm extremely allergic to the DPT shot; I've never been subjected to the newer dTAP. I'm specifically allergic to the pertussis portion and have had to rely on herd immunity my entire life. As a kid, I couldn't go on field trips during the winter and if there was an outbreak our doctors office would call home and I'd get to spend a week or so at home.

People who do not vaccinate their children make me very, very angry.

 

[DavidWhite]

You can't fix stupid.

 

[Missa]

You can't fix stupid.

And in this day and age you can't even just let it die.

 

[Henning]

You can't fix stupid.

True, but again, we have been stupid and short sighted in our application of medicine, so it's not just the people who don't vaccinate that are stupid, the entire medical community & culture of fearing death is stupid. As a species we are very clever at solving problems. However, we are not so clever at predicting the problems our solutions cause, then we are too stupid to change our approach when we see that our commitment to action is going wrong. Much like pilots who continue an approach they see is going wrong and end up crashing rather than simply going around. Here the stakes on both ends of the decission tree are much higher.

 

[Gmaper]

True, but again, we have been stupid and short sighted in our application of medicine, so it's not just the people who don't vaccinate that are stupid, the entire medical community & culture of fearing death is stupid. As a species we are very clever at solving problems. However, we are not so clever at predicting the problems our solutions cause, then we are too stupid to change our approach when we see that our commitment to action is going wrong. Much like pilots who continue an approach they see is going wrong and end up crashing rather than simply going around. Here the stakes on both ends of the decission tree are much higher.

Maybe something else will thin the population. Here is excerpt from a report I read this morning.

"A recent study at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT researchers says that the world could experience from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current swiftness.

Australian physicist Graham Turner says in the Smithsonian magazine that the world is on the road for disaster and that recent evidence agrees with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth.""


http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...hers-predict-global-economic-collapse-by-2030

 

[Henning]

Maybe something else will thin the population. Here is excerpt from a report I read this morning.

"A recent study at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT researchers says that the world could experience from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current swiftness.

Australian physicist Graham Turner says in the Smithsonian magazine that the world is on the road for disaster and that recent evidence agrees with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth.""


http://www.allvoices.com/contribute...hers-predict-global-economic-collapse-by-2030

What will do it in 20 years if nothing does before will be the fresh water crisis at 9 billion people. Without switching to H2-fuel cell energy to produce fresh water, we will be unable under current technology to meet the demands.

 

[Henning]

The problem is multi fold, not only do we keep the sick from dying, we legislate the stupid safe as well. Our collective fear of dying is not only destroying the planet, it's destroying the gene pool as well so the worse the problems get, the less capable we are of dealing with it.

 

[flyingron]

Even if you're not allergic to the vaccine, you gotta rely on herd immunity. There are times when the vaccine in an individual just isn't effective. There was a church where a lot of the congregation were antivaccine types. They had an exposure to the measles and while you'd expect the unvaccinated to be infected, so were several who thought they were protected by being vaccinated.

 

[steingar]

No such thing as a vaccine with 100% effectiveness. But if you vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated (the allergies are somewhat rare) you can largely eliminate viral diseases. The fact that enough people remain unvaccinated to spawn an epidemic is deeply disheartening. People ignoring one of the greatest advances of our age for mostly stupid and spurious reasons.

 

[Pi1otguy]

No such thing as a vaccine with 100% effectiveness. But if you vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated (the allergies are somewhat rare) you can largely eliminate viral diseases. The fact that enough people remain unvaccinated to spawn an epidemic is deeply disheartening. People ignoring one of the greatest advances of our age for mostly stupid and spurious reasons.

Gotta disagree with you. The greatest health breakthrough was indoor plumbing and sewage treatment.

But as we increase the number of diseases we vaccinate for it will change affect our views on their usefullness. I had chickenpox as a child and I still have a few marks & bumps from it at age 30. I remember how much it sucked to have it way back then but I'm still on the fence about pox parties vs a shot for my future children.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Of course there are! There are nutcases on this board that are pregnant right now (supposedly) that argue vehemently against the evil of immunization.

I think you got the wrong board, although the color os somewhat similar.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

True, but again, we have been stupid and short sighted in our application of medicine, so it's not just the people who don't vaccinate that are stupid, the entire medical community & culture of fearing death is stupid. As a species we are very clever at solving problems. However, we are not so clever at predicting the problems our solutions cause, then we are too stupid to change our approach when we see that our commitment to action is going wrong. Much like pilots who continue an approach they see is going wrong and end up crashing rather than simply going around. Here the stakes on both ends of the decission tree are much higher.

funny you should mention this, considering your proposal below

What will do it in 20 years if nothing does before will be the fresh water crisis at 9 billion people. Without switching to H2-fuel cell energy to produce fresh water, we will be unable under current technology to meet the demands.

We may reach 9 billion, we may not. As a culture gets richer, the tendency has been to reduce its population growth. Many European countries have seen population loss recently.

Getting back to unintended consequences, check out the bolded part below

Do you think nuclear energy technology has not advanced just because industry and idiots decided in their mass stupidity they didn't want it? Like they ever had a choice, bloody moronic race. The anti nuke scare mongers can blame themselves for global warming, though I kinda like it. So all you Greenies, this is how you can atone for the sins of your shortsightedness. We are now able to do this very safely, especially if you keep the nuke out over the deep ocean canyons, suspended neutrally buoyant several hundred feet in hulls that can be detached from the tending TLR platform and dispatched into the great pressures of the deep abysmal canyons will keep everything in check as it fizzles away. Compared to the tectonic activity that's going on down there, it would be a pimple on th azz comparison. The TLR rigs take the electricity for electrolytic H2 production. The waste heat from that process will be used to dry the algae produced on the adjacent greenhouse barges with the algae growth farms. Both the H2 and the oil is then brought to port. This also allows us to deny nuclear technology to anyone, we just provide them the H2. If we do this as a public utility, the US could be a major exporter of H2, fresh water, and carbon neutral algae fuel oil products. The US could actually take a lead in the market and start actually taking care of our own without having to go blow somebody up while we pay them for the fuel to do it with.

We know very little about these subduction zones where the deep abyssmal canyoins are located. It is difficult to get robotic explorers down there- partly due to the pressure and the distance from the controlling ship, partly because the systems capable of such exploration are over-subscribed for other work. We should learn more about this biosphere before dumping anything down there and creating problems from our nuclear/hydrogen "solution"

 

[bbchien]

"Oh, but we can't vaccinate. They'll become autistic! Think of the children!"

Prof. Steingar and I watch with dumbfounded amazement.....

 

[Henning]

funny you should mention this, considering your proposal below

We may reach 9 billion, we may not. As a culture gets richer, the tendency has been to reduce its population growth. Many European countries have seen population loss recently.

Getting back to unintended consequences, check out the bolded part below



We know very little about these subduction zones where the deep abyssal canyons are located. It is difficult to get robotic explorers down there- partly due to the pressure and the distance from the controlling ship, partly because the systems capable of such exploration are over-subscribed for other work. We should learn more about this biosphere before dumping anything down there and creating problems from our nuclear/hydrogen "solution"

If the abyssal canyons prove to survey unable, there are many other very deep high pressure areas where we currently have had TLR rigs safely moored for over a decade. Solutions are about attitudes, failures are inevitable and fixes will be found. By never starting though one can never succeed even if they can't fail so you stagnate. With a growing population, this is untenable. The issue is not making mistakes, the issue is not admitting to mistakes and continuing on dogmatically in the face of impending doom, full throttle ahead. That's what I mean about the not so clever on managing our great technological ability. If we can manage to survive until the next evolutionary advance, we will likely become a great species. My hopes for that happening are not high.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

If the abyssal canyons prove to survey unable, there are many other very deep high pressure areas where we currently have had TLR rigs safely moored for over a decade. Solutions are about attitudes, failures are inevitable and fixes will be found. By never starting though one can never succeed even if they can't fail so you stagnate. With a growing population, this is untenable. The issue is not making mistakes, the issue is not admitting to mistakes and continuing on dogmatically in the face of impending doom, full throttle ahead. That's what I mean about the not so clever on managing our great technological ability. If we can manage to survive until the next evolutionary advance, we will likely become a great species. My hopes for that happening are not high.

I found it amusing that you talk about consequences while vehemently advocating a course of action for which we do not know what consequences, if any, might occur.

I know we won't always get it right, and I'm for advancement.

Another issue is that there is too much information out there, some of it released before it really should be. The person in the UK that linked autism to immunizations was considered a credible expert, and still is in many circles.

The general press doesn't help either- they sensationalize anything and too many people think they are getting facts, and contribute to the information overload.

 

[Skylane81E]

Germ theory of medicine and anistecics.

Two biggest advances IMHO

 

[Henning]

I found it amusing that you talk about consequences while vehemently advocating a course of action for which we do not know what consequences, if any, might occur.

I know we won't always get it right, and I'm for advancement.

Another issue is that there is too much information out there, some of it released before it really should be. The person in the UK that linked autism to immunizations was considered a credible expert, and still is in many circles.

The general press doesn't help either- they sensationalize anything and too many people think they are getting facts, and contribute to the information overload.

Consequences shouldn't be feared and avoided, they should be properly managed. They are an issue to deal with, we just need to improve how to deal with them other than the Chicken Little method or the dogmatic adherence to what has been found to cause negative consequence. That is the situation we are in right now with energy. When we consider all the rest of our needs besides just energy going forward, the elegance and economics of going H2 fuel cell with nuke as the driver is the obvious best solution to go forward with. It will have to happen eventually, this waiting for cold fusion and antimatter energy is not going to be able to come online in the next 20 years unless our alien overlords drop Running plants in our laps.

Perhaps it's it's the whole Rapture mentalitality so pervasive in the world that keeps people from thinking too far into the future. Every generation for the last 1200 years has had a very vocal constituency with a still worlds greatest propaganda arm in the history of mankind to decry to the entire world that nothing matters in the future because you will see when God delivers his judgement and you should spend all your time making babies and worshipping God. Why doesn't the Vatican build the H2 business? God knows they've got the money. They've been charging a 10% flat tax forever; if you cheat you burn in Hell. You know how they paid for all those Cathedrals? They would sell a special dispensation that guaranties your loved one passage into heaven, and the fee was often all the savings of an extended poor family. "whatever you have up to...".

The Roman Empire never fell, they closed the doors, did a facelift and name change and opened back for business as The Roman Catholic Church. They have had the biggest empire and tax collection scheme in the world since. Since the water aspect of it alone will be the biggest benefit to mankind ever, and when multiplied with it being such elegantly produced electricity + heat transported for 11% the mass of the water, a weeks worth for a family could be as little as 15kgs to transport in a cylinder representative in size of a typical scuba bottle.

Really, think about it, this is the perfect undertaking for them and it will allow them to finally after over 2000 years conquer the world. Julius Ceasar will shed a tear of joy in his grave.

The good thing though is they will get it done and unify global society. The question is, what do they do with the power.

The Roman Empire has the ability to take over the planet. Last couple of times they gave it a real go, the results were pretty interesting.

As for the media, pretty much straight evil intent anymore.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Wow. Enough said.

 

[RotorAndWing]

Consequences shouldn't be feared and avoided, they should be properly managed. They are an issue to deal with, we just need to improve how to deal with them other than the Chicken Little method or the dogmatic adherence to what has been found to cause negative consequence. That is the situation we are in right now with energy. When we consider all the rest of our needs besides just energy going forward, the elegance and economics of going H2 fuel cell with nuke as the driver is the obvious best solution to go forward with. It will have to happen eventually, this waiting for cold fusion and antimatter energy is not going to be able to come online in the next 20 years unless our alien overlords drop Running plants in our laps.

Perhaps it's it's the whole Rapture mentalitality so pervasive in the world that keeps people from thinking too far into the future. Every generation for the last 1200 years has had a very vocal constituency with a still worlds greatest propaganda arm in the history of mankind to decry to the entire world that nothing matters in the future because you will see when God delivers his judgement and you should spend all your time making babies and worshipping God. Why doesn't the Vatican build the H2 business? God knows they've got the money. They've been charging a 10% flat tax forever; if you cheat you burn in Hell. You know how they paid for all those Cathedrals? They would sell a special dispensation that guaranties your loved one passage into heaven, and the fee was often all the savings of an extended poor family. "whatever you have up to...".

The Roman Empire never fell, they closed the doors, did a facelift and name change and opened back for business as The Roman Catholic Church. They have had the biggest empire and tax collection scheme in the world since. Since the water aspect of it alone will be the biggest benefit to mankind ever, and when multiplied with it being such elegantly produced electricity + heat transported for 11% the mass of the water, a weeks worth for a family could be as little as 15kgs to transport in a cylinder representative in size of a typical scuba bottle.

Really, think about it, this is the perfect undertaking for them and it will allow them to finally after over 2000 years conquer the world. Julius Ceasar will shed a tear of joy in his grave.

The good thing though is they will get it done and unify global society. The question is, what do they do with the power.

The Roman Empire has the ability to take over the planet. Last couple of times they gave it a real go, the results were pretty interesting.

As for the media, pretty much straight evil intent anymore.

 

[Doggtyred]

Hm. I honestly have no idea what I have or haven't been vaccinated for. The last vaccination I remember getting was in early middle school.

Then I would respectfully suggest you get your tetanus booster. Lasts 10 years, and if you have an ER visit for a wound, they boost it if its been 5 years since the last one.

 

[Doggtyred]

An epidemic of a disease easily vaccinated against. I'm afraid I'm with Bruce on this one. I'm really not looking forward to the Polio and Smallpox epidemics. They're still extant in the world, and far worse than Whooping cough.

By Odin I never thought to see such a thing in my lifetime.

Smallpox only exists in Russian and American bioweapons/research labs.. Its not been seen in the wild since the 70's.

 

[steingar]

Smallpox only exists in Russian and American bioweapons/research labs.. Its not been seen in the wild since the 70's.

Small pox is still extant, though in remote areas, as is Polio. My fear has always been the rate of world travel could easily bring these scourges back into existence. Given the appalling rate of vaccination for extant Western viruses, I can only imagine the level of discord if one these truly horrible scourges makes a comeback. There is something really wrong with our culture when an easily eradicatable disease like Whooping Cough creates an epidemic. Something badly wrong.

 

[Henning]

Small pox is still extant, though in remote areas, as is Polio. My fear has always been the rate of world travel could easily bring these scourges back into existence. Given the appalling rate of vaccination for extant Western viruses, I can only imagine the level of discord if one these truly horrible scourges makes a comeback. There is something really wrong with our culture when an easily eradicatable disease like Whooping Cough creates an epidemic. Something badly wrong.

The positive note is that for the very large part, the people who travel to those areas get their vaccinations before they go. I had to give the the last rounds of shots to myself and crew as we pulled into Indonesia. Now I can play with rabid dogs infected with Japanese Encephalitis.

 

[Jay Honeck]

An epidemic of a disease easily vaccinated against. I'm afraid I'm with Bruce on this one. I'm really not looking forward to the Polio and Smallpox epidemics. They're still extant in the world, and far worse than Whooping cough.

By Odin I never thought to see such a thing in my lifetime.

Just make sure your kids are vaccinated -- and then sit back and enjoy the ensuing Darwinistic exercise.

It's tough medicine, but maybe the only solution is to kill off a whole bunch of these idiots...

 

[bluee]

This time it's an epidemic level 600+% increase in WA.

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat/2012_news/12-038.htm

Is this just a slowly spreading epidemic following the same issue in CA a year or so ago from the decades of parents opting out of vaccines or is this a new strain for which a vaccine doesn't exist?

Could it be people are specifically skipping the tDap shot due to the obvious side effects? Each and every tDap shot I remember involved days of soreness & extreme fatigue that sapped my will to do anything.

I had a TDAP shot three weeks ago, with no reaction.