Would you fly in this?

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Pbtx0, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    I was planning on just going out and flying around with no particular destination this afternoon (its currently 5PM) but the current radar in my area looks a little iffy. I'm curious to see what others thoughts are about it. I'm located at the black dot due east of Tyler on the attached radar image. The prig chart shows a low pressure passing right over us with the associated squall line. When I look at the radar loop it does appear to be building but mostly building away from my airport. Current condition are VFR with only a 9 knot wind. I contemplated departing and flying around north of the airport but have ultimately decided to wait it out and see how it develops. My concerns are twofold. One, there is some substantial convective activity <20 miles from my airport and I'm a concerned about wind shear and turbulence. Two, I am concerned that while I'm out flying the convective activity may envelope my airport making it impossible to get back in. What are your thoughts? Am I wimping out or does this seem like a sound decision? I know ultimately I have to feel comfortable about flying but I want to see what some more experienced minds think about my reasoning.
     
  2. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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  3. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Looks like ya got a few convective sigmets less than 16nm south of you.
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  4. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    Yeah. Its looking more and more like I made the right call. I think if I had a planned destination due north I might have considered departing as it is clear north of here but having to return back and no absolute need to depart in the first place is keeping me grounded.
     
  5. Velocity173

    Velocity173 Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I would. It was all southeast of you and moving further southeast. Now would I do a cross country thru that? No way.
     
  6. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    They do appear to be moving away, give it a hr and take a look
     

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  7. Henning

    Henning Ejection Handle Pulled

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    These systems move along and as long as you have fuel to hang out, or other airports nearby you can divert to, you aren't at too much risk of getting stranded. Stay in the clear, stay away from clouds with lots of contrast and motion in them, stay away from green skies, note what direction the anvil tops are blowing and pass the bad clouds on the upwind side of where those anvils would form.

    Or stay on the ground.
     
  8. BigBadLou

    BigBadLou Final Approach

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    I am under the current cold front (just south of you) and I would not take off right now. However, where you are, it should be clear or maybe with some spotty showers but otherwise stable cooler air that is no threat anymore.
    Flying south would be stupid but north of the cold front is generally good.
     
  9. CTLSi

    CTLSi Ejection Handle Pulled

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    A lightning strike will ruin your day...
     
  10. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    Yes it would and the lightning strike data I was looking at was a little sporadic in the area and outside of some of the current radar returns. Ultimately that what kept me on the ground. Its 7 now and the sky is starting to look a little worse here despite the convective activity moving south. I think I made the right call.
     
  11. kayoh190

    kayoh190 Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

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    If you're not getting paid to do this - sitting it out on the ground is never the wrong call. Don't stress it, man.
     
  12. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    My sentiment exactly. Just figured I would learn a little from it too.
     
  13. cirrusmx

    cirrusmx Line Up and Wait

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    you are second guessing the flight and asking in an internet forum to seek justification/encouragement to go. If you feel iffy don't go.
     
  14. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    Negative. Reread my post. The decision was already made. I wanted to discuss the weather and my reasoning behind not going.
     
  15. Neal Howard

    Neal Howard Cleared for Takeoff

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    It's always better to be sitting on the ground wishing you were up in the sky than the other way around.;)
     
  16. Twin_Flyer

    Twin_Flyer Cleared for Takeoff

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    +1 :yeahthat:
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  17. Ryanb

    Ryanb Administrator Management Council Member PoA Supporter

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    See if it moves out, however anytime you have to question the wx its probably not the best time to go.
     
  18. poadeleted20

    poadeleted20 Deleted

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    What I'd do really doesn't matter unless you're a 10,000-hour ATP/CFI professional pilot. What matters is whether you feel comfortable with it based on your qualifications and experience. If you're not sure, remember the adage about it being better to be down here wishing you were up there than up there wishing you were down here. Then sit back and watch the weather from the ground, and see what you think about it. If you feel you could have flown in it safely, next time you see this you can go ahead and fly with confidence.
     
  19. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Not so much as LLWS.
     
  20. jmcsherry

    jmcsherry Pre-Flight

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    Along the lines of Ron's reply, I might have ventured into that weather under the right circumstances. But that is for a CFII in a Cirrus, with a few thousand hours of practice, and some experience in such weather. BTW, what equipment should be part of that decision, right?
    When I was a 100-hour private pilot and still finding things out, I would (and did) stay in the FBO and talked to the guys coming in from it to find out what they had done and why.
    Always, "if it don't feel right, don't do it", or
    "if you have to ask the question, you likely already know what the answer should be"
     
  21. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    I don't think that having 10,000 hours and and ATP/CFII, etc. makes you immune to wind shear and turbulence. I would never fly in something I didn't feel comfortable flying in and made that decision yesterday based on that feeling. My intent with this post was to discuss the weather and my reasoning not seek the blessing of other pilots. Just some simple discussion in a discussion board
     
  22. txflyer

    txflyer En-Route

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    Fly it like you STOL it ♦
    I didn't look at the OP links, because who the **** has the time to look and read everyone's links? :lol:;)

    The way I look at it, if you're asking a talk board to make a go-no-go weather call, I think you already have your answer.
     
  23. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Well that's not my ideal demographic :D
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2014
  24. Henning

    Henning Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Ok, well, your reasoning was/is not valid, but that is irrelevant. The reality is that systems like that are very safe to fly around especially in the pattern as long as you keep an eye on the clouds and get on the ground when you see an angry one come your way. Or you can often get out of the way. This wasn't a well organized Supercell type of activity so you had good space between angry clouds to hang out in or pass around through while you wait for where you want to go to clear in a few minutes. These storms don't sit in one spot or last very long. The ceilings are typically high enough not to cause a factor.

    The reasoning is really you didn't want to go because you weren't sure you would be safe, and that's fine, just don't convince yourself something is unsafe without experiencing it though. Seek out some mentoring in local weather from local business and utility pilots, learn the details so you can make better informed decisions in the future.
     
  25. Pbtx0

    Pbtx0 Pre-Flight

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    Thank you. This is what I was looking for.
     
  26. Henning

    Henning Ejection Handle Pulled

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    No worries. You have to be ready to fly around some weather to get any real utility out of a plane in your neck of the woods. As long as you have reasonable ceilings and you aren't seeing black roiling clouds in every quadrant, it's probably flyable during non icing conditions. A little bit of rain is no big deal, slow down for serious turbulence (remember that book Va is at Gross weight and that Va reduces with reduction in weight as well). One thing about flying around weather, you need to carry extra fuel reserves for diversions and loitering time.

    The nice thing about TX is all the straight line farm and ranch roads. If it all looks like it's about to go to hell, land on one, try to pick one with no poles, but even those are usually far enough over you'll not hit them. Tons of strips in back yards as well.

    See if you can get a ride along with a pipeline pilot on mainline route.