Would the IR have made a difference?

[skidoo]

So, last weekend I made a no-go decision and drove to a meeting. 3+ hour drive, or 50 minute flight. The forecast was CAVU for the entire state for the whole weekend except for home base in my valley. For here, there was an overcast forecast for when I desired to return home and the day before and after.. Sometimes, there could be a hole or opening somewhere at one end of the valley where one could get under and make it home. But, I could not count on it.

I am wondering if this would be a prime case for having the IR or if it would not have made difference because of the following. Here were the actual conditions on the day of return:

CAVU everywhere except for the home valley. In the valley, ceiling was 1300 to 1500 ft with in excess of 10 mile visibility below. Clouds were probably 1500 to 2000 ft thick and extended to mountain surface throughout the valley. Mountain peaks were CAVU. Temp on the ground was 32F (0C). No precipitation, just a high fog like layer, stable air. Aircraft is non FIKI, but has prop heat, and pitot heat.

What are your thoughts? If I had the IR, would it have been simple to quickly drop through the layer and get home, or would the temp had prevented that?

 

[gismo]

So, last weekend I made a no-go decision and drove to a meeting. 3+ hour drive, or 50 minute flight. The forecast was CAVU for the entire state for the whole weekend except for home base in my valley. For here, there was an overcast forecast for when I desired to return home and the day before and after.. Sometimes, there could be a hole or opening somewhere at one end of the valley where one could get under and make it home. But, I could not count on it.

I am wondering if this would be a prime case for having the IR or if it would not have made difference because of the following. Here were the actual conditions on the day of return:

CAVU everywhere except for the home valley. In the valley, ceiling was 1300 to 1500 ft with in excess of 10 mile visibility below. Clouds were probably 1500 to 2000 ft thick and extended to mountain surface throughout the valley. Mountain peaks were CAVU. Temp on the ground was 32F (0C). No precipitation, just a high fog like layer, stable air. Aircraft is non FIKI, but has prop heat, and pitot heat.

What are your thoughts? If I had the IR, would it have been simple to quickly drop through the layer and get home, or would the temp had prevented that?

With good visibility and at least MVFR ceilings such a flight would have been a piece of cake if you had an IR and were current/competent. Unless there's a reason that ATC would force you to remain in cloud for a long time you'd hardly notice the little bit of ice you might collect dropping through 2000 ft of cloud and with that kind of weather under the clouds there's little or no chance you'd need to climb back up.

 

[azure]

With good visibility and at least MVFR ceilings such a flight would have been a piece of cake if you had an IR and were current/competent. Unless there's a reason that ATC would force you to remain in cloud for a long time you'd hardly notice the little bit of ice you might collect dropping through 2000 ft of cloud and with that kind of weather under the clouds there's little or no chance you'd need to climb back up.

Wouldn't that depend on the moisture content of the clouds? About a month ago I was coming back from western NY, following V2 westward from BUF at 3000 which is below the MEA, listening to the big iron pilots landing at KBUF. All of them were reporting moderate clear ice during the descent. It was a pretty typical lake stratocu layer. The bases were being reported at 3800 MSL, tops about 7000. Ambient temperature was just about freezing at the surface, and it was dusk and the temperature was dropping. I was happy to be safely below all that.

 

[TMetzinger]

Wouldn't that depend on the moisture content of the clouds? About a month ago I was coming back from western NY, following V2 westward from BUF at 3000 which is below the MEA, listening to the big iron pilots landing at KBUF. All of them were reporting moderate clear ice during the descent. It was a pretty typical lake stratocu layer. The bases were being reported at 3800 MSL, tops about 7000. Ambient temperature was just about freezing at the surface, and it was dusk and the temperature was dropping. I was happy to be safely below all that.

Yes. The temp of the moisture primarily affects the type of ice, and the moisture content primarily affects the severity.

Icing clouds that are relatively "warm" have the potential for clear ice, which is the kind that makes the really nasty shapes on your leading edge.

Caveat - I'm in the middle of studying icing and I may have this wrong.

 

[Ted]

Mixed ice is the nasty stuff more than clear.

Definitely the content of the cloud is what makes a big difference. An experienced pilot like Lance or me would be different than freshly-minted. So it's not just the IR, it's also how proficient you are with using it. You'd also need to have some good idea of the tops - Skew-Ts, PIREPs, etc.

 

[steingar]

If you have really hard, fixed dates, you are far better going by car, with the IR or not. The IR doesn't get you through everything, but it does give you some really nice ways to screw up. If I have that kind of trip pressure, I leave the aircraft in the hangar, though I am just a VFR flyer. But I've driven trips in clear air with a clear forecast because I had to be back.

 

[skidoo]

Yes. The temp of the moisture primarily affects the type of ice, and the moisture content primarily affects the severity.

Icing clouds that are relatively "warm" have the potential for clear ice, which is the kind that makes the really nasty shapes on your leading edge.

Caveat - I'm in the middle of studying icing and I may have this wrong.

Is what I described considered "Known Ice" conditions? Or, would it be legal to try in my aircraft? I can see where I could stay above a bit longer on the approach, and then drop at 1000 ft/ min or more to keep the exposure to under 2 minutes. If it is not precipitating, what is the most one could expect in that amount of time?

 

[somorris]

I am IFR but not current. I would have driven also.

I think Ted is right, you would need to be someone who flies a lot in all kinds of conditions to be comfortable in that situation. At 32F on the surface, it COULD be that any moisture in the clouds would be frozen, or it could be supercooled and would freeeze as soon as you dropped into it. The only solution that I know of is to fly a lot in varied conditions, which is hard to do unless your regular jobs is flying or you are retired and have lots of money.

 

[jesse]

If you have really hard, fixed dates, you are far better going by car, with the IR or not. The IR doesn't get you through anything, but it does give you some really nice ways to screw up.

Says the guy without the instrument rating. I've completed countless flights in the midwest that I wouldn't have been able to do without an instrument rating. They sure don't make it to where you can fly through any weather, but they make it to where you can operate in conditions you couldn't otherwise.

 

[gismo]

Wouldn't that depend on the moisture content of the clouds? About a month ago I was coming back from western NY, following V2 westward from BUF at 3000 which is below the MEA, listening to the big iron pilots landing at KBUF. All of them were reporting moderate clear ice during the descent. It was a pretty typical lake stratocu layer. The bases were being reported at 3800 MSL, tops about 7000. Ambient temperature was just about freezing at the surface, and it was dusk and the temperature was dropping. I was happy to be safely below all that.

Yes the liquid moisture content, or more importantly the size of the water droplets can make a big difference in how much ice collects but even in moderate icing conditions (for a light plane) with a 1500-2000 foot thick layer you can get completely through in less than two minutes and you'd normally be through the worst of the ice in about 30 seconds and that's not likely to cause a serious problem unless there is SLD present. In the presented scenario the layer was not only thin it was reported as "stable air" with no precip further indications that the icing if any won't be all that bad. OTOH, if an airliner had just passed through the same layer and reported moderate ice, one might want to divert to somewhere more benign. The ice downwind of unfrozen water can be pretty significant although when I've been through that on the eastern shore of LM I've never encountered anything that would make an unprotected plane unflyable in just a few minutes.

For the situation described by the OP, it would be a good idea to negotiate with ATC to allow staying above the clouds until a rapid descent to the clear air below them was feasible. What you don't want is getting "stuck" in ice laden clouds for an extended perieod while ATC works on a lower altitude.

 

[gismo]

Says the guy without the instrument rating. I've completed countless flights in the midwest that I wouldn't have been able to do without an instrument rating. They sure don't make it to where you can fly through any weather, but they make it to where you can operate in conditions you couldn't otherwise.

Well, technically IR or not one does have to understand that travel by light plane is less reliable than the airlines, especially WRT weather. Having the IFR option does make it considerably more reliable and even the airlines aren't dependable enough if you really must "get there" and/or get back on time. OTOH, driving your own car isn't 100% reliable either but when others are depending on your travel, folks unfamiliar with the issues of flying small planes are often more understanding if you're delayed by a car breakdown or airline failure than a few ice laden clouds and a light plane.

 

[Henning]

CAVU everywhere except for the home valley. In the valley, ceiling was 1300 to 1500 ft with in excess of 10 mile visibility below. Clouds were probably 1500 to 2000 ft thick and extended to mountain surface throughout the valley. Mountain peaks were CAVU. Temp on the ground was 32F (0C). No precipitation, just a high fog like layer, stable air. Aircraft is non FIKI, but has prop heat, and pitot heat.

What are your thoughts? If I had the IR, would it have been simple to quickly drop through the layer and get home, or would the temp had prevented that?

I would likely have in a stable air 2000' layer, if you have prop heat you likely have >200hp; but then if I had the option of sneaking through under I would likely choose that.

 

[Henning]

Wouldn't that depend on the moisture content of the clouds? About a month ago I was coming back from western NY, following V2 westward from BUF at 3000 which is below the MEA, listening to the big iron pilots landing at KBUF. All of them were reporting moderate clear ice during the descent. It was a pretty typical lake stratocu layer. The bases were being reported at 3800 MSL, tops about 7000. Ambient temperature was just about freezing at the surface, and it was dusk and the temperature was dropping. I was happy to be safely below all that.

That's Strato Cumulous, not Low Stratus, different beasts entirely. Know your clouds and what's in them.

 

[Henning]

If you have really hard, fixed dates, you are far better going by car, with the IR or not. The IR doesn't get you through anything, but it does give you some really nice ways to screw up. If I have that kind of trip pressure, I leave the aircraft in the hangar, though I am just a VFR flyer. But I've driven trips in clear air with a clear forecast because I had to be back.

Oh, that's not true at all, an IR gets you through the large majority of it quite well even in a basic IFR GA aircraft. There are conditions I avoid, and they happen to be the conditions native to my region, embedded TR, I don't go there. Luckily it doesn't stop me because I use options underneath. If I lived in the NE 2/3rds of the country I wouldn't have bought my plane as I'd have a FIKI bird. As it is I can comfortably wait for Kelly to release their heat pad deice. I don't particularly require a FIKI ship so long as it meets my specs, I'm good with it. I wish I could get a hot windshield, that would be cool. Probably cost a quarter mill to do.

But hey, I flew 100 hrs over a year on several trips and always was where I intended to be on the days I intended to be there including flying into OSH.

Most of the NE and West Coast summer IFR though when we want to be having fun, majority of that is good stable air IR stuff. Convective summer weather is easy and better to stay VFR.

 

[Richard]

Know your clouds and what's in them.

A-effing-MEN.

All pilots must necessarily so become at least active lay meteorologists with a severe interest in the weather.

As a mariner, it is a 2nd sense.

 

[Richard]

Lance, given your reply in post #10 I would like your comments on the following:

You have an impending flight. At first light you step outside your home to observe lightly falling snow. The snow flakes appear small but well formed. Every now and then you can distinguish 6 sided shapes in individual flakes. The outside thermometer on your home reads 10 F.

You arrive to the airport and notice that while the snow is not falling at an increased rate, the flakes appear much larger and not as definite in structure. Cigs remain at 1,500, 1 1/2 sm vis, and OAT is 10 F.

Do you launch or not?

This is based on an actual scenario, it is not a trick question. Most of my flying has been in the far western states whereas you live in a northern state. I have had 3 unforecasted ice encounters, one in the climb, two enroute. I am simply trying to increase my knowledge of probability of icing. My question is not about personal minimums.

 

[Henning]

A-effing-MEN.

All pilots must necessarily so become at least active lay meteorologists with a severe interest in the weather.

As a mariner, it is a 2nd sense.

That's what really made decide to fly was to get up next to the clouds I'd watch on watch. I love to get up next to them, the energy and power in there, you can see it and feel the tons of water almost as a gravitational force. Between that and the charge force it can be pretty intense. I'm always on with ATC; if I want altitude and it's skinny between the clouds or I want to get close I'll tell them "Looks ahead where I can get trough clear of clouds and prefer to, not sure VFR limits clear. Would you prefer I file for clearance?" It comes back 50/50 when it comes back anything but "That's your decision to make", then I file. Regardless they never have a problem allowing deviations to stay in the clear around TRs.

When I was coming back from OSH there was a big line that extended across central FL, MCO was closed, there was nobody getting through it. I saw my route through on the beach line transition. ATC called me as I was approaching the line that was over Cape Canaveral, "Ignore all airspace, it is all yours, there is no one else flying, find your way through there best route you can find.", "Have route sighted, 25', 25 miles vis in the clear and upwind 180kts fat, dumb, and happy thanks." but that was straight up VFR.

 

[azure]

That's Strato Cumulous, not Low Stratus, different beasts entirely. Know your clouds and what's in them.

Where did I say they were low stratus???

Wouldn't that depend on the moisture content of the clouds? About a month ago I was coming back from western NY, following V2 westward from BUF at 3000 which is below the MEA, listening to the big iron pilots landing at KBUF. All of them were reporting moderate clear ice during the descent. It was a pretty typical lake stratocu layer. The bases were being reported at 3800 MSL, tops about 7000. Ambient temperature was just about freezing at the surface, and it was dusk and the temperature was dropping. I was happy to be safely below all that.

 

[steingar]

Says the guy without the instrument rating. I've completed countless flights in the midwest that I wouldn't have been able to do without an instrument rating. They sure don't make it to where you can fly through any weather, but they make it to where you can operate in conditions you couldn't otherwise.

Mistyping, Meant to put down that the IR doesn't get you through everything...

 

[bobmrg]

With good visibility and at least MVFR ceilings such a flight would have been a piece of cake if you had an IR and were current/competent. Unless there's a reason that ATC would force you to remain in cloud for a long time you'd hardly notice the little bit of ice you might collect dropping through 2000 ft of cloud and with that kind of weather under the clouds there's little or no chance you'd need to climb back up.

ATC can't force you to remain in clouds: you are the PIC with emergency authority to do your own thing if necessary, Just say "unable" or use the E word. Up here in the icy Northwest, just mentioning ice gets their attention in a hurry.

Bob Gardner

 

[Alexb2000]

Yes the liquid moisture content, or more importantly the size of the water droplets can make a big difference in how much ice collects but even in moderate icing conditions (for a light plane) with a 1500-2000 foot thick layer you can get completely through in less than two minutes and you'd normally be through the worst of the ice in about 30 seconds and that's not likely to cause a serious problem unless there is SLD present. In the presented scenario the layer was not only thin it was reported as "stable air" with no precip further indications that the icing if any won't be all that bad. OTOH, if an airliner had just passed through the same layer and reported moderate ice, one might want to divert to somewhere more benign. The ice downwind of unfrozen water can be pretty significant although when I've been through that on the eastern shore of LM I've never encountered anything that would make an unprotected plane unflyable in just a few minutes.

For the situation described by the OP, it would be a good idea to negotiate with ATC to allow staying above the clouds until a rapid descent to the clear air below them was feasible. What you don't want is getting "stuck" in ice laden clouds for an extended perieod while ATC works on a lower altitude.

+1. Other than considering the above, what's the big deal? IMO if you are not willing to fly these conditions after a sensible evaluation then don't bother with IR (or move to FL).

 

[Henning]

Where did I say they were low stratus???

The OPs situation is low stratus, you were comparing apples and oranges.

 

[redtail]

ATC can't force you to remain in clouds: you are the PIC with emergency authority to do your own thing if necessary, Just say "unable" or use the E word. Up here in the icy Northwest, just mentioning ice gets their attention in a hurry.

Bob Gardner

As a low time VFR pilot(~160hrs) who haven't started on my instrument yet, I really appreciate the wealth of knowledge and experience you guys bring to this forum. This statement is something I try to keep in mind on every flight. "I am PIC" & "unable" and not be hesitant to use it or the E word if necessary.

Thank you sir, I enjoy reading every post you write

 

[gismo]

Lance, given your reply in post #10 I would like your comments on the following:

You have an impending flight. At first light you step outside your home to observe lightly falling snow. The snow flakes appear small but well formed. Every now and then you can distinguish 6 sided shapes in individual flakes. The outside thermometer on your home reads 10 F.

You arrive to the airport and notice that while the snow is not falling at an increased rate, the flakes appear much larger and not as definite in structure. Cigs remain at 1,500, 1 1/2 sm vis, and OAT is 10 F.

Do you launch or not?

This is based on an actual scenario, it is not a trick question. Most of my flying has been in the far western states whereas you live in a northern state. I have had 3 unforecasted ice encounters, one in the climb, two enroute. I am simply trying to increase my knowledge of probability of icing. My question is not about personal minimums.

I'd want more information, and significantly more if I was flying an unprotected airplane. Heavier snow typically means thicker clouds I suspect the larger, poorly formed flakes are coming from a cloud with lots of moisture and temps barely below freezing which can mean ice, even with snow. If I had recent pireps indicating nothing worse than light ice along with tops no more than 2000-3000 above the ceiling, the radar didn't show bands of heavier snow, and the airplane was lightly loaded I'd be willing to go in an airplane with pitot heat as long as there was an approach that worked within a dozen miles or so if I had to come right back down. Take away any of those and you may find yourself in a difficult situation with no easy way out. With a deiced and overpowered airplane (like mine) the conditions you mentioned wouldn't normally concern me unless there was a forecast or report of severe icing or freezing precip. There are other considerations as well, such as where the low and fronts are (the NE quadrant of a fully developed low is usually a pretty good ice factory), nearby significant terrain providing orthographic lifting, or large unfrozen bodies of water can change the picture as well. And of course this is only about deciding to launch safely with options if ice becomes a problem right away, being able to complete the flight depends on much more.

 

[skidoo]

+1. Other than considering the above, what's the big deal? IMO if you are not willing to fly these conditions after a sensible evaluation then don't bother with IR (or move to FL).

It's not a matter of being willing. I don't think that I would have a problem attempting it when rated. No one has yet answered if this condition would be a legal. Would descending through this layer be considered Known Ice, or not? It seems that this kind of condition is common this time of year at my home airport. So, if I can get through it safely and legally, then the IR becomes much more valuable to me.

 

[Alexb2000]

It's not a matter of being willing. I don't think that I would have a problem attempting it when rated. No one has yet answered if this condition would be a legal. Would descending through this layer be considered Known Ice, or not? It seems that this kind of condition is common this time of year at my home airport. So, if I can get through it safely and legally, then the IR becomes much more valuable to me.

I didn't mean what I said in any kind of negative way. I'm simply saying that flying IFR in freezing temperatures means you have to accept that you may encounter icing conditions and the risks associated with it. In parts of the country (like where I fly) that is 6-8 months out of the year. Assuming you've looked at all the weather sources you can, asked for pireps, you have the outs, you have a plan, then I'll say go for it.

As to the legality the FAA has just released another clarification on what is known icing, it is not flying in any cloud below freezing. Nor is it a forecast for icing. It has to be verified icing conditions. So from the description, assuming you asked and no one had reported icing then it wouldn't be known icing IMO.

 

[Henning]

As a low time VFR pilot(~160hrs) who haven't started on my instrument yet, I really appreciate the wealth of knowledge and experience you guys bring to this forum. This statement is something I try to keep in mind on every flight. "I am PIC" & "unable" and not be hesitant to use it or the E word if necessary.

Thank you sir, I enjoy reading every post you write

Declaring an emergency is not something you should think twice about doing, it opens a whole world of help you probably don't realize exists, in the end though it is up to you to pull it out of your ass. BTW, NOT declaring an emergency is no guarantee that an emergency will not be declared for you. Aagain, not necessarily something that ends with more than a phone "Everything alright? Everyone ok?" type call. They know things go wrong, they know we get in a bind up there. Why we are in a bind is irrelevant at that point in time. Even if we get in a bind of a mistake of our own creation, the main thing the FAA wants out of the situation, besides a successful conclusion to the flight, is to make sure that you don't get into that particular failure again.

They aren't traffic cops out there to issue you tickets. The people who I have seen in 20+ years around the industry that get in a bind with the FAA are the ones with an attitude problem.

I have been called to the carpet for talks before, my approach is to be congenial, professional, THOROUGH in my analysis and critique of the situation INCLUDING my personal failings and where I see what I missed 4 steps before the emergency came to light. When it was all over I walked out with a handshake. Never even had a 44709 ride for crashing a plane. They knew there was no point because I had already shown them I had learned what they wanted to make sure I had learned. The FAA, at least at the ATC and FSDO levels, are not your enemy. The people at the FSDO are typically quite experienced airmen and understand the day to day realities of a human in the cockpit and that we make mistakes. The trick is to not keep making the same mistakes. That's what they want to make sure of when the talk to you afterwards.

 

[Henning]

It's not a matter of being willing. I don't think that I would have a problem attempting it when rated. No one has yet answered if this condition would be a legal. Would descending through this layer be considered Known Ice, or not? It seems that this kind of condition is common this time of year at my home airport. So, if I can get through it safely and legally, then the IR becomes much more valuable to me.

Unless someone has reported icing, it is not Known Icing best I recall the rules, but they changed up a few years back. So I'm pretty sure you're fully legal.

 

[azure]

The OPs situation is low stratus, you were comparing apples and oranges.

You might have read that into what I wrote, but I in no way compared the OPs situation with the one above me on V2. All I was trying to say is that with some clouds, you don't want to be in them for even a few minutes without protection. IOW as you say, you do have to know what is in the clouds.

 

[hindsight2020]

My warrior is a dog in the climb on a good day, add a departure into wet-on-the-ground freezing temps where i have no clue where the top of the overcast is? meh, pass.

I can certainly agree, non turbo non fiki small pistons in places where ifr into freezing moisture equals half the year makes flying a part-time seasonal pursuit, at best. These lawnmowers are too underpowered for that kind of guess work. The whole thing is supposed to be fun. Guessing routes around icing layers is not fun, just plain work. Im glad I live in the south where icing is a consideration only a couple weekends out of the year.

 

[skidoo]

IOW as you say, you do have to know what is in the clouds.

Since I can't really Know what is in it until I go through, how about some input from those who have experienced flight through a layer very similar to the described scenario? Those responding to this, please don't confuse the issue with other extremes of clouds, precipitation, or temps.

 

[skidoo]

Unless someone has reported icing, it is not Known Icing best I recall the rules, but they changed up a few years back. So I'm pretty sure you're fully legal.

That, right there makes it worth the IR. My most recent, long time experienced CFI seemed to discourage the IR in this area, basically saying any cloud is visible moisture and since it is freezing much of the year at altitude, he defined that as known icing conditions.

I would think there is a big difference between dropping or climbing through a cloud layer in freezing temp for a couple of minutes and cruising along in the clouds for long durations.

 

[Alexb2000]

Since I can't really Know what is in it until I go through, how about some input from those who have experienced flight through a layer very similar to the described scenario? Those responding to this, please don't confuse the issue with other extremes of clouds, precipitation, or temps.

In your original scenario the clouds were 2,000' thick. Given that thickness just setup a 1,500 per minute descent since you will never really know 100% until you get in there. So you'll be in the clouds 1:20 seconds, even if you pickup some ice you'll be fine. Also, most of the icing is at the tops of the cloud layer, so the chances of it being consistent through the entire 2,000' are slim. Prior to entering the clouds, prop heat, pitot heat, full defrost (I like to give this 10 minutes prior to get really warm). The main thing is to KNOW your outs, in this case the ceiling below being VFR and high enough to complete the flight. You don't want to descend, get into ice, have the ceiling lower than expected, and have to try to climb back up. Another option if you have some nasty looking clouds and you suspect icing, prior to starting the descent, take a pass over the area you're trying to get through and see if there are any VFR holes you can just circle down through, if you have the gas this works a lot of times (if you know the MEA's and terrain). The main thing is just have a plan, tell ATC what you want to do, and why (possible icing), and then just concentrate on flying the airplane.

People get into trouble when they go somewhere with no verified outs and no plan. Even applied to a simple descent through a 2K layer.