Wind shear?

azure

azure

Final Approach
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azure
I've been looking forward to today since Friday. We will be solidly in the warm sector by afternoon, absolutely no risk of icing all the way up to 10,000. Though it's LIFR now, ceilings and visibility are forecast to improve by afternoon into high IFR/low MVFR category. So I'm thinking of doing some proficiency work in the 20Z - 22Z time frame at either KYIP or KFNT.

I have two weather concerns though: convection and LLWS. The convection is expected to be a morning-only event, with chances for TSRA waning rapidly afterward leaving only scattered SHRA. But there is a 45-50 kt low level jet (not surprisingly, that's what is bringing in all the warm air) and mixing to the surface isn't forecast to be very good (12 kts or so at the surface). The G-Airmet actually shows areas of LLWS potential nearby through the afternoon. I've experienced LLWS in visual conditions but never in IMC and am wondering if I should consider this a no-go condition. In VMC unless it's VERY low-level (i.e. on short final), I'd simply push the nose down and add power to stay on glide path. But in VMC there are more cues that it is happening; in IMC I'd expect just some buffeting and a sudden drop in IAS.

Currently I'm planning to keep watching the weather and checking for wind shear PIREPs and make my decision by 1930Z (which is when I get off work). But more experienced comments would be greatly appreciated.
 
Wind shear does not affect us nearly as much as the "heavies". It is all about inertia.

Looking at the present wx...winds at ground level are higher than forecast. Winds to your SW are 20-30 kts. Tops in the low 30's which is like 40's in the South. Rotation, bow waves and hail noted. I would wait for another day.
 
Yes there is some convection out there, all of it is tracking to our west though, and none of it is progged to come through here in the next few hours. The real problem is the ceilings which haven't come up much at all -- still LIFR most locations. It's starting to improve and will probably improve more later on, but that would mean waiting until 21Z or so, and with the RNAV NA at night now, chances are I'd have to leave the plane at KPTK and find someone to drive me back. I have a long day at work tomorrow, so the hassle is just not worth it to me. :(
 
Yeesh. Even though the chances that conditions would improve in time to go were next to nil, I drove to the airport anyway and wasted a couple of hours talking about it. The ceilings came up as far as 1100 feet, then the rain started. That convective activity had moved east and now was training along a path right over KVLL.

It was completely predictable. The convection was being triggered by an approaching cold front. The front was WEST of us moving EASTWARD, so naturally the lines of heavy precip were also moving toward us. I'm not sure what made me think this might be even remotely doable.

To make matters worse all the local roadways got deluged and it took me two hours to get home after starting out, then turning back, then waiting an hour, then setting out again.

Aargh, what a wasted day... :(
 
This weather is so fascinating and fun to learn about. There will be another day to fly soon. Maybe another lunch get together!
 
I watched the preecip waltz across your area. Looked pretty nasty down here in Cleveland as well.

The way I look at it is my attitude improves every time I go to the airport even if I don't fly =)
 
It is heading my way and due in tomorrow morning. I hope we don't have another Spring like last year. We lost many just South of here due to a tornado. I have a steel reinforced concrete cellar to take cover in.
 
ChrisK said:
The way I look at it is my attitude improves every time I go to the airport even if I don't fly =)
Click to expand...
Not this time for me. It was a serious wake-up call. Normally before a flight I do a totally thorough weather briefing. This time I thought I had a handle on it, but I didn't. I was only watching it out of the corner of my eye, as I got ready for work, hoping to squeeze in a proficiency flight afterward before things got worse in the evening. Before heading to the airport the only thing I checked was the ceilings and current airmets/radar/convective sigmets. If the ceilings had come up sooner, I might have been up flying when the nasty stuff moved in. Sure I would have had advance warning (I have XM) -- but still, IMC is not a good place to be when you need to get on the ground NOW.

I'm thinking I just don't have the time during the week to do a good enough briefing for IFR flying.
 
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