Why is this AIRMET ending?

azure

azure

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This is an academic question since forecast conditions at VLL are too low for flying today, but I noticed that the only icing airmet in effect for SE MI is this one:

AIRMET ZULU UPDT 2 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL 132100
AIRMET ICE...MI LH
FROM 60NNE ASP TO YVV TO 30SE ECK TO DXO TO FWA TO 40WSW ASP TO
60NNE ASP
MOD ICE BTN FRZLVL AND 160. FRZLVL 020-040. CONDS ENDG 15-18Z.

and it clearly says conditions expected to end right about now.

But, and I'm by no means a skew-T expert and that's surely why I'm confused, but when I look at the forecast sounding for two hours from now (Op 40 at 2000Z) for VLL and most surrounding areas, it shows below freezing temps and a saturated column up to about 070.

http://tinyurl.com/ycea7y5

(hope the link works, I can't save java applet output with my browser)

So what can I learn about skew-T's from this, if anything? Are these really not icing conditions? Or are they icing conditions but there are other criteria for airmet zulu that aren't met?:confused:
 
Thanks, Scott. So because the icing was mostly light, with only pockets of moderate here and there, conditions didn't meet the criteria for AIRMET Zulu. But still, they wouldn't be safe for prolonged flight in a non-FIKI aircraft. Very important to know!

I didn't realise until just now that the CIP was available on ADDS -- another very good wx product to have handy. I don't think my CFII knows about it either, I'll have to clue him in. Thanks again.
 
dmccormack said:
hunh? :eek:
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I should have said "I'll see if he's familiar with it." He may very well be, but he's never mentioned it when we've talked about icing and weather decision making. Also it's a supplemental product, and as far as I can tell isn't discussed in the FAA's Aviation Weather Services manual. I've seen it discussed online in aviation forums like PoA, and mentioned on NWS but not in IR test prep materials, nor have I seen it on WSI. He doesn't even have internet access at home. Would it really be that surprising if he didn't know about it?
 
scottd said:
Just curious...were you not familar with the Current Icing Product (CIP) at all? Is there another location on the Internet that you have seen CIP?
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I wasn't familiar with it. I had seen it discussed before and even cast a quick glance at ADDS looking for it, but didn't see it at the time. I'm not sure why I didn't see it, all you have to do is click on the "Icing" tab and there it is. Somehow I missed it.

Are Skew-T's there too, someplace that I missed? It would be nice to be able to save the images. The only site I know of that makes them in a format I can read in my browser is http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/ and I can't save those.

BTW, I already told my CFII about your site. :)
 
Liz, I get my Skew-Ts from: http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

As to how to interpret them, I'm no expert. I think ScottD has made a few posts on it.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
Liz, I get my Skew-Ts from: http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/
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Yup, that's the newer URL for the same source that I use. It even says on the page that that link is the new one, and that gifs are available there. I really need to slow down and read the large print more often. Sigh. :sleep:

As to how to interpret them, I'm no expert. I think ScottD has made a few posts on it.
Click to expand...
He's the expert! I just subscribed to his site today, lots of stuff there that I need to know.
 
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