Why are so many people afraid to fly in small airplanes?

Ignore the statistics and go fly yourself.

In case it's not clear yet, my opinion is "Be aware of the statistics and go fly yourself."

The trouble with ignoring the statistics is it can lead to complacency, invulnerability, machismo, and excessive risk-taking in general, which are not consistent with safe flying.

I think flying can be done safely, but it's not going to happen if we fool ourselves about the risks.
 
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In case it's not clear yet, my opinion is "Be aware of the statistics and go fly yourself."

The trouble with ignoring the statistics is it can lead to complacency, invulnerability, machismo, and excessive risk-taking in general, which are not consistent with safe flying.

I think flying can be done safely, but it's not going to happen if we fool ourselves about the risks.

The old saying still goes: "Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself."

Statistics are a source of learning material. For instance, if I look at the stats for the last ten years and see that there was one fatal accident due to a pilot's decision to land his airplane on a shopping-center roof, but 74 fatal accidents due to carb ice, which of those causes bear thinking about? And learning more about?

Those are just made-up numbers, by the way. But carb ice does get an awful lot of poorly-educated pilots.

Dan
 
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This has already been covered in this thread. The data shows that the smaller number of fatal accidents is a result of the fact that less time and miles are spent in GA airplanes than in cars.

So, in whatever time I have left on this planet, I am much less likely to end up in a smoking hole from flying an airplane as compared to driving a car?

Spending less time in a more hazardous activity does not make it a less hazardous activity. (If you disagree, then you should have no qualms about spending one hour per year playing Russian Roulette!)

So that argument does not stand up to even cursory scrutiny.

If I played russian roulette one hour a year, the chances that I would end up in a pine box are WAY more than, say, 100 hours in a LSA.

Spending just 1.32175 seconds playing russian roulette has a higher risk than 6000 hours in an LSA. Plus there is no return whatsoever for the risk - it's just a stupid thing to do. Hence the qualms.

The argument sticks.
 
I don't have any "Chief numbers", I'm not talking about any specific model, I'm talking about GA fixed-wing overall.

If we're looking for a way to try to cheat the stats, a good way is by characterizing ourselves as part of so small a subset of the whole that we've eliminated the "bad" statistics, carving out a data set that's too small to have any meaning, and then trying to draw meaning from it.

In other words, in the past 5 years there have been 0 GA accidents in which the pilot was a half-greek, half-bald, computer-geek, Orioles fan, CP-ASEL with between between 600 and 700 hours in his logbook. We have therefore proven statistically that there is 0% chance of me crashing.
-harry

You mentioned Chiefs, specifically.

NTSB-reported accident record shows that crashes are less likely to be fatal in a Chief than in many other aircraft models.

F=M*A
 
Dunno. I'm a bit distrustful of pilot self-evaluations, for all the published reasons. I like to fly with other pilots watching/evaluating. If they have a better way or see something I don't, I want to know about it, since that's how I've learned much of what I know now. That hasn't changed since I started flying (51 years and 13k hours ago) and will happen again at about 1630 LCL tomorrow.


Nope -- I'm my own worst critic.

Aren't you?
 
I don't have any "Chief numbers", I'm not talking about any specific model, I'm talking about GA fixed-wing overall.

If we're looking for a way to try to cheat the stats, a good way is by characterizing ourselves as part of so small a subset of the whole that we've eliminated the "bad" statistics, carving out a data set that's too small to have any meaning, and then trying to draw meaning from it.

In other words, in the past 5 years there have been 0 GA accidents in which the pilot was a half-greek, half-bald, computer-geek, Orioles fan, CP-ASEL with between between 600 and 700 hours in his logbook. We have therefore proven statistically that there is 0% chance of me crashing.
-harry

Ah, but one of the first things taught in Statistics class is that statistics don't "Prove" anything. So, this conclusion is a fallacy. What you have done in your example is reduce your sample size of qualifying criteria to so low that your results are statistically insignificant. It wouldn't pass any statistical tests... Statistics can provide valuable information, but can also be used to mislead those who do not comprehend the statistical language by leaving out some statistical information. Those who understand the language, would simply conclude that the particular statistic presented had insufficient information to draw any conclusions from it or simply throw it out as meaningless.

But, with good data and knowledge of sample size, etc., there are a lot of statistical tests that can be done that can provide valuable information for what one would like to know.
 
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Ah, but one of the first things taught in Statistics class is that statistics don't "Prove" anything.

At best, statistics show correlation - not cause and effect.

So, this conclusion is a fallacy. What you have done in your example is reduce your sample size of qualifying criteria to so low that your results are statistically insignificant. It wouldn't pass any statistical tests... Statistics can provide valuable information, but can also be used to mislead those who do not comprehend the statistical language by leaving out some statistical information. Those who understand the language, would simply conclude that the particular statistic presented had insufficient information to draw any conclusions from it or simply throw it out as meaningless.

But, with good data and knowledge of sample size, etc., there are a lot of statistical tests that can be done that can provide valuable information for what one would like to know.

The information can be valuable, but again, you have to understand more than just the quality of the correlation.

If the number of accidents correlates well to passenger miles, does that make me more or less likely to have an accident in a 2 seat aircraft compared to a 6 seat?

Near as I can tell, for the most part (there are a few exceptions) pilots end up dead as a result of a lack of stick and rudder skills and / or bad decisions (including flying in to IMC without the skills).

Sometimes these conditions are systemic and sometimes someone just has a bad day... And, I'm sure many of us can think of examples of each of these.
 
Dunno. I'm a bit distrustful of pilot self-evaluations, for all the published reasons. I like to fly with other pilots watching/evaluating. If they have a better way or see something I don't, I want to know about it, since that's how I've learned much of what I know now. That hasn't changed since I started flying (51 years and 13k hours ago) and will happen again at about 1630 LCL tomorrow.

That's fine, and that's why a learning pilot seeks instruction in new airplanes, new equipment, or for additional ratings.

Looking back over the last 5 years, I've flown with 10 different instructors in a wide variety of airplanes and learned a whole lot from each -- even those that weren't uber-CFI.

My point is -- a good pilot owns his/her development and proficiency and doesn't wait for guidance.
 
You mentioned Chiefs, specifically.
I was responding to an example.
NTSB-reported accident record shows that crashes are less likely to be fatal in a Chief than in many other aircraft models.
You're making a statistical argument. Did you arrive upon it numerically, or just by browsing and coming to a general conclusion?

You would need to know how many hours are flown in Chiefs annually to make this assertion. Do you know this number? Unless this number is larger than I'd guess it to be, then you're probably working off a data set that's too small to generate much in the way of conclusions.

Some of us are certainly in the "above average" safety category. The thing is, whenever such conversations arise, I never hear anybody volunteer that they're in the bottom half, and somebody has to be there, too.
Is this the "it's so slow it can just barely kill you" argument? :)
-harry
 
The "angle" will be very close.

Not sure what your question is...?
The question is how many fatal accidents were the result of a pilot landing his aircraft off-airport, under control, into a field, but having too much speed to stop on that small field in time ... as opposed to stalls, spins, loss of control, scud-running, flying into terrain/power-lines, etc.

It seems very intuitive that the slower you're moving the safer you are, but we do seem to find lots of ways to reach the earth at speeds well above stall, and angles of arrival much larger than we'd like.
-harry
 
How do you define good pilots?

My observations over the years have led me to conclude that all pilots are deemed to be good pilots until they crash, then everybody at the airport suddenly (under their breath and safely out of range of the NTSB investigators) knows all of their short-comings and why they weren't really that good after all.

Unfortunately, some good pilots crash too, but probably not as frequently as the poor ones, and maybe for less-ignorant reasons. Professional pilots know that ongoing training is required and accept it as part of the package. Their accident rate when flying similar aircraft is a sliver of the overall GA rate, so it seems pretty clear (to me anyway) that continued training is a major contributor to safety, along with experience, judgement, maturity and luck.

We can debate the philosophy till hell freezes, or we can cut to the chase and acknowledge the reasons that pilots are reluctant to train are cost and fear of failure (being exposed as inept). What else can they be, other than a few arrogant *******s think they are better than they are and don't need any help from anybody.

If every licensed pilot was told that one full day of annual training was required each year, that it was free and that it would be specifically tailored and confined to the equipment and locale in which that pilot operates, how much kick-back would we get from them? The only caveat would be that the pilot had to satifactorially complete each portion the review before being signed off, and couldn't fly again until they did.

Doing such training as a LOFT session in a sim would allow much more realistic training for carb ice, IFR into VFR, fuel problems, deteriorating weather, impossible turns, pattern stall-spins, terrain and many other known killers that can't be taught in a plane.

I convinved a friend who also owned a 210 to accompany me to Flight Safety for my annual recurrent sim training. Within a month, he experienced a turbo failure after takeoff, with a chock-full airplane on a hot day. He had to dodge big buildings to return to the airport, and credits the training for his survival. His letter to FSI still hangs on the wall in their Wichita facility. Would he have made it safely without the training? He doesn't think so, and he's a smart guy. I'll take his word for it.

It's not that we don't know why pilots get killed, we just don't have the means or the resolve to lower the rate. That's probably not going to change, and the accident rate won't either.


That's fine, and that's why a learning pilot seeks instruction in new airplanes, new equipment, or for additional ratings.

Looking back over the last 5 years, I've flown with 10 different instructors in a wide variety of airplanes and learned a whole lot from each -- even those that weren't uber-CFI.

My point is -- a good pilot owns his/her development and proficiency and doesn't wait for guidance.
 
The question is how many fatal accidents were the result of a pilot landing his aircraft off-airport, under control, into a field, but having too much speed to stop on that small field in time ... as opposed to stalls, spins, loss of control, scud-running, flying into terrain/power-lines, etc.

It seems very intuitive that the slower you're moving the safer you are, but we do seem to find lots of ways to reach the earth at speeds well above stall, and angles of arrival much larger than we'd like.
-harry


As I mentioned in an earlier post, the majority of NTSB-reported fatalities in Chiefs involve low-level manuvering (buzzing, impromptu aerobatics, etc).
 
Dunno. I'm a bit distrustful of pilot self-evaluations,
I agree. For one thing, I think it's often easier to see someone else's mistakes than your own. For another thing there are many pilots out there who are not their own worst critic. In fact I would say most are convinced they are doing things the right way, their way. In some ways it's necessary to have the self-confidence to believe that what you are doing is right, but occasionally it can be a detriment.
 
I convinved a friend who also owned a 210 to accompany me to Flight Safety for my annual recurrent sim training. Within a month, he experienced a turbo failure after takeoff, with a chock-full airplane on a hot day. He had to dodge big buildings to return to the airport, and credits the training for his survival. His letter to FSI still hangs on the wall in their Wichita facility. Would he have made it safely without the training? He doesn't think so, and he's a smart guy. I'll take his word for it.

It's not that we don't know why pilots get killed, we just don't have the means or the resolve to lower the rate. That's probably not going to change, and the accident rate won't either.

Sure, a few days at a state-of-the-art training facility would benefit everyone.

So would dual everythings, terrain proximity warnings, and whole-airplane-parachutes.

:rolleyes:

Here on Earth the majority of GA pilots have just enough expendable income to fly -- sometimes.

The question is -- how to we reach, encourage, improve, prepare those pilots that make up the bulk of the GA population and the accident statistics?

I think the most cost-effective is regular training sessions as Ive mentioned earlier. But in between those sessions, self-evaluation is critical and constant.

You posed the "What if it's free?" scenario.

Well, Air Safety Foundation and WINGS stuff is free -- what percentage of the GA pilot population uses those resources?

I do, and I encourage all those I fly with to as well.
 
I agree. For one thing, I think it's often easier to see someone else's mistakes than your own. For another thing there are many pilots out there who are not their own worst critic. In fact I would say most are convinced they are doing things the right way, their way. In some ways it's necessary to have the self-confidence to believe that what you are doing is right, but occasionally it can be a detriment.

So you don't self-critique during and after a flight?
 
So you don't self-critique during and after a flight?

Nah, if it's back in the hangar in one piece and I'm not shaking like a dog passing a peach-seed, what's not to like?
 
So you don't self-critique during and after a flight?

I try not to critique myself during the flight - it just makes me mad leading to degrading the performance. After the flight there's usually a group of fellow aerobatic competitors that are assembled to laugh at my antics and ponder things like "was that an avalanche or were you shot down at the top of that loop?" or "how many times during that sequence did you get to practice your upset/recovery technique?" Helpful stuff like that...
 
I try not to critique myself during the flight - it just makes me mad leading to degrading the performance. After the flight there's usually a group of fellow aerobatic competitors that are assembled to laugh at my antics and ponder things like "was that an avalanche or were you shot down at the top of that loop?" or "how many times during that sequence did you get to practice your upset/recovery technique?" Helpful stuff like that...


It depends on the flight. If I'm doing approaches under the hood or practicing in IMC, I critique on the long drone to get set back up (safety pilot can help, here).

Flying patterns I'll evaluate on downwind.

On Cross country there's usually plenty of time.
 
I wonder what percentage of fatal accidents involve such an angle of arrival?
-harry

Chiefs will have a lower fatality rate because they stall at 40 MPH. Even if they spin in, the airplane will hit the ground at a lower speed because its wing loading is so low. If it runs into the side of a mountain in cloud, it will do it at 80 mph. If the pilot loses control on landing, he goes for a bit of a tumble. All of these accidents will hurt a lot more in, say, a 210 or Bonanza. Everything happens a lot faster in aircraft with higher wing loadings and therefore stall and cruise speeds. Impact forces increase by the square of the increase in speed.

Dan
 
So you don't self-critique during and after a flight?
Usually the mistakes I make are in full view of someone else. :rofl:

Truthfully, if I make a mistake I acknowledge it, file it away for something not to do again and move on.
 
Chiefs will have a lower fatality rate because they stall at 40 MPH. Even if they spin in, the airplane will hit the ground at a lower speed because its wing loading is so low. If it runs into the side of a mountain in cloud, it will do it at 80 mph.
Dan

Yep.

The wing design changed after the war -- pre-war stall speeds solo are around 36 MPH, MGW 38 MPH or so indicated in mine. Stall characteristics are incredibly benign. I wonder why they changed wings?
 
So, in whatever time I have left on this planet, I am much less likely to end up in a smoking hole from flying an airplane as compared to driving a car?

I'm willing to accept that the insurance company's price structure is a reasonable proxy for the answer to that question, but it's still necessary to recognize that pilots' likelihood of dying is reduced by limiting the amount of time they spend in general aviation flying. It doesn't prove that GA flying is safer than driving, it just proves that you can improve your survival odds by reducing the amount of time you spend in riskier activities.

And, although it's definitely true that one can reduce one's risk of an early death by spending less time flying, and insurance pricing reflects this, personally I would rather see pilots reduce it by engaging in more conservative decisionmaking.

If I played russian roulette one hour a year, the chances that I would end up in a pine box are WAY more than, say, 100 hours in a LSA.

Spending just 1.32175 seconds playing russian roulette has a higher risk than 6000 hours in an LSA. Plus there is no return whatsoever for the risk - it's just a stupid thing to do. Hence the qualms.

Exactly my point. We all know that Russian Roulette is so dangerous that no one in their right mind would engage in it, and yet if the logic you are using for flying vs. driving were applied to Russian Roulette vs. flying, we would have to say that Russian Roulette is safer, because the number of people who die from it is very small. It's not until you calculate the number of deaths PER UNIT OF EXPOSURE that the statistics reveal which is the safer activity.

The argument sticks.

Oh? Then why did you find it necessary to mention the length of time spent in each activity in your comparison of flying vs. Russian Roulette?

I thought you were claiming that it's not necessary to factor in the length of time one is exposed to each risk. That certainly seemed to be what you were claiming in regard to flying vs. driving.

If one arbitrarily decides to ignore statistics one doesn't like (like the number of deaths per unit of exposure, for example), then OF COURSE one is going to reach bogus conclusions. That doesn't prove that statistics are worthless. It proves that the methodology must be carefully examined.
 
... Even if they spin in, the airplane will hit the ground at a lower speed because its wing loading is so low. If it runs into the side of a mountain in cloud, it will do it at 80 mph...
Are you suggesting that a spin into the ground is surviveable in a slow plane? That crashing into the side of a mountain at 80 mph is surviveable?

This is sort of the "just barely kill you" joke. If 80mph into a mountain kills you, does 180mph into a mountain kill you even worse?

Can we conclude, then, that ultralights must have the best safety record of all?
-harry
 
"Hey sonny, you know why ridin' them motor-sickles and flyin' them little airplanes are like screwing your neighbor's wife?"

"Nope, why?"

"Cause just about the time you think you're getting pretty good at it, you get killed. Heh-heh"


Ba-boom.
 
Are you suggesting that a spin into the ground is surviveable in a slow plane? That crashing into the side of a mountain at 80 mph is surviveable?

This is sort of the "just barely kill you" joke. If 80mph into a mountain kills you, does 180mph into a mountain kill you even worse?

Can we conclude, then, that ultralights must have the best safety record of all?
-harry

Believe it or not, it happens. People survive spins into the ground, sometimes, just not in Bonanzas. People can survive a mountainside crash, too, just like they can sometimes survive an 80 mph head-on with a truck. Not often, but sometimes. Depends on the angle of collision with the mountain, and how much vegetation is in the way. The facts are clear: hitting something at twice the speed involves four times the force. Ouch.

Dan
 
Small aircraft accidents, incidences, and running out of fuel and landing on a freeway get great coverage on the local TV. Accidents like John F. Kennedy,JR. lasted for days. That is why people think they just go up to crash.
 
If I played russian roulette one hour a year, the chances that I would end up in a pine box are WAY more than, say, 100 hours in a LSA.

Spending just 1.32175 seconds playing russian roulette has a higher risk than 6000 hours in an LSA. Plus there is no return whatsoever for the risk - it's just a stupid thing to do. Hence the qualms.

The argument sticks.

Wrong-O. You can make way more money playing Russian Roulette than you ever can flying, you just have to go where the betting is.
 
Wrong-O. You can make way more money playing Russian Roulette than you ever can flying, you just have to go where the betting is.

Really? More on a per-hour basis (this would shock me if not true), or more on a expected lifetime earnings basis (this would surprise me if true)?

Chris
 
I finally talked one of my fearful friends into going up with me in a 172. It took me two month to convince him I would't crash the plane. That's a funny argument because it's like saying: "Gee I'll fly better with you in the plane because my life will be worth more....."
 
Maybe someone could help me with this, I will start off by saying ( I do not have a fear of "flying") I am a pilot and have flown for a little bit of time not allot in fact i just returned from a 150km small cross country solo as a flight of two with a friend. I was nervous the entire time just waiting for the engine to quit on me or the wings to fall off obsessing over it so much that i was disgusted with myself even saying What the He** is wrong with you? Why cant you just fly the plane and watch the birds or watch the scenery go by and I had to sit it down half way. I told my friend I was just feeling weird and wanted to grab a snack at the local FBO which we did and went on our way we dropped the plane off and I let him fly back. On the way back it was like I was sitting in my chair at home watching TV I couldn't have been more comfortable. I am not afraid of larger jets or any jet for that matter. I love flying I love being a passenger it doesn't bother me. I only seem to be bothered when its "just me" and of things that cant happen or shouldn't happen. Im not sure of why i would consider the wings to fall off or become damaged or an aileron to become stuck or the engine to fail at 4k feet with 30+ little airport choices nearby. The thoughts just sneak in there and take over and for some reason I cant get rid of them. I don't know if it is just a lack of experience solo or if its something deeper. If anyone has experienced this or know of someone who has and over came it I would greatly appreciate any advise and this is my passion.
 
I have the same problem...I don't like solo. But as long as I have another pilot or passenger in the plane I'm totally good. :) May want to take your CFI up as a safety net and tell him you don't want his help or advice - but if we're going to die help. :) I did that and it seemed to help I just imagine "What would I do if my instructor was there"
 
I don't think going up with a CFI is going to help much .
You need to build conference and trust yourself . The longer you fly with your CFI the harder this is going to get .
Give.yourself a little credit after all you came back alive after a 150 Km cross country . You can do it .
 
What Ben said, solo flying is the only cure. Suck it up cupcakes.
 
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