What would YOUR decision be? (Thought exercise)

[wsuffa]

This is a thought piece for discussion about weather ADM. Time to play Monday Morning Quarterback:

So, let's suppose that you wanted to make a trip yesterday (Sunday) from the DC area to the Dayton, OH area. Goal is to have lunch with a friend in the area. You must be back sometime Sunday as you have a meeting commitment for work Monday AM.

Plan would be to launch out of DC area around 8 AM, flying time of 2:15-2:45 (depending on route and headwinds). Normal ATC routing for GPS-equipped is LDN->EKN->PKB->XUB->Destination. Since you have plenty of fuel, you can go north (to MGW->AIR, then over the V214 corridor and/or APE), or you can head south over the normal route to Cincinnati (Over CRW thence YRK thence FLM thence Destination)... but you need to make the choice before launching as the routing is enough different that it's impractical to backtrack.

You're in a well equipped IFR GA aircraft with XM Weather, IFR-certified GPS/RNAV, and stormscope aboard. You are IFR current (IPC within the last 2 weeks) and well rested for the day. Plane has 5+ hours of fuel. You have Foreflight (fully charged) and being a bit retentive about this you also have paper charts across the route. You've planned for 10,000 or 12,000 outbound - the plane is equipped with oxygen and canulas (you also have a pulse-ox) & is turbocharged for flight up to FL200.

You've been watching the forecasts (TAF, area forecast, and AFD) as well as observing the weather models (maps available on Wunderground.com). You're not too worried about showers or VCSH, but you won't fly in/near convection.

Decision time is 7 AM.

Just for fun, let's also say you also plan to take a passenger that's ok with GA unless conditions are bad or very bumpy, in which case they would rather land NOW.

Here's the forecast & discussion from the night before. The model maps for 12Z-18Z show a fairly wide area along the route of flight with little to no precip during the period. After 18Z, the area fills in with precip.

FTUS41 KILN 162300
TAFDAY
TAF
KDAY 162338Z 1700/1724 18009KT P6SM FEW050 BKN250
FM170700 20008KT P6SM VCSH BKN070
FM171500 21012KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS BKN050CB
FM171800 23011KT P6SM SCT050=

000
FXUS61 KILN 170150
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
950 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT...BREAKING DOWN AN ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY REESTABLISH THIS RIDGE LATER ON MONDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY DAYBREAK...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER OVER CWA AND
OHIO VALLEY TO REMOVE THE ADDED KICK OF DIURNAL HEATING. WHILE
STORMS WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A MARKED LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THE H5 RIDGE IS SUFFICIENTLY BEATEN DOWN BY THE EVENING AND THE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE FLOW NEVER SWITCHES FROM SOUTHWEST AND
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP A
SHOWER THREAT GOING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE CONVERGENT AREA WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY IN THE MEAN FLOW AND A LINGERING SHOWER
EARLY IN THE DAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY IN NERN CWA.

WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE EXPRESSED IN THE FORECAST AT 18Z SUNDAY...I
WAS NOT CONVINCED OF THAT AT THAT HOUR...BUT I HAVE LITTLE DOUBT
THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE OVER CWA DURING
THE DAY AND I AM KEEPING THE GRID UNCHANGED.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT QUIESCENT CONDITIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THAT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF WHEN WEATHER MAY IMPACT TERMINALS. APPEARS
THAT ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z. INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z. HAVE OPTED TO USE
VCSH IN THE TAFS TO INDICATE THIS CHANCE. AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING THAT A MORE ROBUST LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HAVE FORECAST A 3 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS
TO INDICATE WHEN THE BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

And the AFD at decision time. Models show a large "blob" on the north side of the Dayton area for arrival time, it moves eastward centered in your flight path for departure time. Nexrad at decision time shows a line of precip with imbedded cells from just north of LEX to roughly XUB moving northeast:

Area forecast lists tops at or above 20,000.

FTUS41 KILN 171100
TAFDAY
TAF
KDAY 171133Z 1712/1812 19010KT P6SM VCSH BKN060
FM171500 20014G20KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS BKN050CB
FM171900 21012G20KT P6SM BKN050
FM180000 20006KT P6SM BKN070=

(Note that the forecast for KFFO showed VCTS from roughly 12Z to 19Z)

000
FXUS61 KILN 171043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD
BACK ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL
PUSH EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NEW RUNS OF HI RES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF
BRINGING THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY THAT TIME.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD EASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE
FORCING CAUSED BY THE JET. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
WITH THE NEWER MODEL RUNS AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION FROM THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR A BIT EARLIER. HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE POPS NOW ACROSS THE WEST JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...AND IN THE EAST BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

AFTER THIS BAND OF CONVECTION PASSES...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
AND DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE THEREFORE FORECAST A ROUND OF CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUD COVER DOES PERSIST A BIT LONGER INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO
RECOVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THUS THIS AFTERNOON POPS
MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS ONCE THE INITIAL CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BASED ON TIMING
AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE FORECAST BASED ON THE IDEA
THAT SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH
THAT IN MIND HAVE FORECAST A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
WEST...WHILE KEEPING THE EASTERN ZONES IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS WE LOSE DIURNAL
HEATING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...AND THEREFORE A QUICK DECLINE IN POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WILL OCCUR IN THE EVENING. THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE
IN A LULL BETWEEN THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...AND THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE. OPTED TO GO DRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
TO WHAT EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

AS THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY...SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS PLENTY OF SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST 20 TO 30 POPS FOR NOW. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER THAN THIS IN RECENT RUNS. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FROM THE SECOND DISTURBANCE...KEPT
MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSITION ITSELF OVER OUR AREA INTO
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS WILL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL AREA OF PCPN IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BUT A NARROW LINE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER IS WORKING ITS WAY EAST
AND MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE THESE MOVE THROUGH...WE COULD SEE A BRIEF
BREAK BEFORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AFFECTED
BY THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. WOULD THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE THREAT WITH A
PREVAILING -SHRA AND A VCTS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN
THE PCPN AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...BUT FORCING
APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING ANYTHING IN THE
TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

And the TAF (KPKB ) and AFD for the West Virgnia enroute sector:

FTUS41 KRLX 171100
TAFPKB
TAF
KPKB 171121Z 1712/1812 16006KT P6SM BKN030
FM171400 19006KT P6SM BKN040
FM171700 20006KT P6SM VCTS BKN060CB
FM172000 21007KT P6SM SHRA VCTS BKN040CB
FM172300 20007KT 4SM SHRA VCTS OVC025CB
FM180200 21006KT 6SM SHRA VCTS BKN035CB
FM180400 20006KT 5SM BR VCTS BKN050CB=
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
646 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER CROSSES MONDAY. UPPER
RIDGE TAKES HOLD FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM FRONT OVER W EDGES OF FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXTENDS N
INTO NRN LOWER MI...WHERE IT IS OCCLUDED BY A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FIRST PROBLEM OF THE
DAY IS WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL FIRE UP ALONG THE WARM FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF DAY GIVEN A STRONG DEW POINT
/ THETA E GRADIENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SAID DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IS SHALLOW...AND DISAPPEARS BY THE TIME ONE REACHES H85.
NONETHELESS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE EITHER SIDE
OF THE OHIO RIVER JUST W OF THE FCST AREA.

THE ABSENCE OF MORNING DEVELOPMENT WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING TO FUEL AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SECOND PROBLEM OF THE DAY. WITH THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DISSIPATING...AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING HEADED JUST N
OF THE FCST AREA...BEST INSTABILITY IS SHOWN W AND N OF THE FCST
AREA THROUGH SUNSET...KEEPING SEVERE THREAT TO A MINIMUM WITHIN THE
FCST AREA. FASTER STORM MOTION COMPARED WITH SATURDAY WILL ALSO
HELP TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ON E OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH IN
AREA COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET...BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO FORM
TONIGHT WHERE IT RAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON.

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SMALL ENVELOP OF GUIDANCE...AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND HENCE
THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...SAW LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT
POTENTIAL ON HIGHS TODAY. DID EDGE LOWS TONIGHT UPWARD TOWARD
ADJMET GIVEN GUIDANCE ENVELOP OVERALL...DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH
AND LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS.



&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH CIGS JUST
ABOVE 3 KFT IN SPOTS. BIGGER STORY IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE W...WHICH COULD REACH VICINITY OF HTS AS EARLY
AS 14Z. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO WV LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL
TEND TO BREAK UP. HOWEVER...NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP IN E
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. CODED UP SOME MVFR BUT OF COURSE...IFR WILL BE FOUND
RIGHT BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT ANYWHERE IT RAINS LATER TODAY AND / OR TONIGHT
SO TOUGH TO PEG LOCATION ALTHOUGH DID HIT TYGART VALLEY HARD LATE
TONIGHT.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SW AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT S TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT SW.

Here's the forecast at decision time for CMH (your return flight would pass through CMH airspace between 1730z and 1830z):

FTUS41 KILN 171100
TAFCMH
TAF
KCMH 171133Z 1712/1812 17008KT P6SM BKN080
FM171300 18012KT P6SM VCSH BKN060
FM171700 20012G20KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS BKN050CB
FM172200 20010KT P6SM BKN050
FM180100 19005KT P6SM BKN070=

Would you go?

 

[Henning]

I'd go, if I was taking the other guy I'd tell him 'this is going to be a scary trip for you, better take a Valium or something if you want to come."

 

[steingar]

I wouldn't fly through the storms we had yesterday for anything. Heck, I was barely able to drive through them.

 

[Henning]

I wouldn't fly through the storms we had yesterday for anything. Heck, I was barely able to drive through them.

You don't go through them, you go around them.

 

[steingar]

You don't go through them, you go around them.

Good luck going around a series of violent embedded thunderstorms. No doubt you do that every morning before breakfast, but some of us are just mere humans.

 

[TMetzinger]

Looking at all the CB in the TAFs is enough for me to make a "no" decision, based on the motives given in the original post.

 

[Henning]

Good luck going around a series of violent embedded thunderstorms. No doubt you do that every morning before breakfast, but some of us are just mere humans.

Nah, when I hit those I land, ask em to toss the plane in a hangar, go eat and come back after the line passes. Thing is though there's a lot of room between those embedded T-Storms in all those lines, that's why I stay VFR around T-Storms so I can see to avoid them. Rarely do I hit more than an hour or two delay on a trip.

 

[jesse]

Anyone have nexrad images of the applicable route at the departure time? I make most of my decisions based on what's happening at my departure time and what is forecasted to happen during the flight time.

 

[Morne]

The passenger wouldn't like it. I am not yet IR rated so I elected not to fly through that on Sunday. I drove through it and almost bit the farm. Seriously, those storms had Noah checking the local lumberyard...

Henning, your normal practice includes onbord radar, right? I did not see that on this hypothetical situation.

 

[wsuffa]

Anyone have nexrad images of the applicable route at the departure time? I make most of my decisions based on what's happening at my departure time and what is forecasted to happen during the flight time.

There's a 24 hour loop (moves fast, maybe you can frame catch) available on Weatherunderground. Choose the Nexrad display for Dayton, then select the date for yesterday on the archive.

Not great, but shows the picture as it actually occurred across Ohio.

 

[steingar]

Nah, when I hit those I land, ask em to toss the plane in a hangar, go eat and come back after the line passes. Thing is though there's a lot of room between those embedded T-Storms in all those lines, that's why I stay VFR around T-Storms so I can see to avoid them. Rarely do I hit more than an hour or two delay on a trip.

You'd have made it with a delay, but it would have been more than an hour. It was ferocious yesterday.

 

[Henning]

You'd have made it with a delay, but it would have been more than an hour. It was ferocious yesterday.

Exactly, but I always make it. I'm much more concerned with winter weather and icing than I am with late spring/early summer weather. I learned long ago that if I cancel trips for weather, I never get anywhere, so I learned to work with it same as I do at sea.

 

[steingar]

Exactly, but I always make it. I'm much more concerned with winter weather and icing than I am with late spring/early summer weather. I learned long ago that if I cancel trips for weather, I never get anywhere, so I learned to work with it same as I do at sea.

I always make it too. That should be pretty obvious, unless you think I'm typing this from beyond the grave. But my delays are often far more than a couple hours...

 

[wsuffa]

Exactly, but I always make it. I'm much more concerned with winter weather and icing than I am with late spring/early summer weather. I learned long ago that if I cancel trips for weather, I never get anywhere, so I learned to work with it same as I do at sea.

So the given parameters were to meet someone for lunch and fly back same day. That gives about an hour of latitude on the initial flight and somewhat longer on the return.

 

[Henning]

So the given parameters were to meet someone for lunch and fly back same day. That gives about an hour of latitude on the initial flight and somewhat longer on the return.

I'm meeting a buddy for lunch, I call them ad say "Dude, I'll be late, pick up the hookers and the eight ball before I get there so we don't waste time."

 

[AdamZ]

Bill, I'd have stayed on the ground but Its tough not to interject my conservative nature into the scenario.

 

[Henning]

I will admit there have been times aloft I have questioned my decision to be there, but cest`la vie. If you're not in an IFR aircraft it's not a choice, and besides you can't see the pipe IMC.

 

[Skylane81E]

If you called NO you called right IMO

 

[denverpilot]

- Goal is to have lunch ...

- Decision time is 7 AM.

- Just for fun, let's also say you also plan to take a passenger that's ok with GA unless conditions are bad or very bumpy, in which case they would rather land NOW.

You lost me at 7AM.

Then you added a pax that hates bumps and you're going to stuff him/her full of food?

I was out before finishing reading the synopisis.

It's going to be bumpy, and there's nothing like coming home just in time to clean up hurl before an important meeting the next day.

Fun per dollar value... below the point of a reasonable ROI.

 

[Banjo33]

I'd go as well with a plan to stop short. 12-14k and there's a good chance you get above that BKN layer and be able to see the CBs. If you can see them, you can pick your way through them. If you can't see them, then you land short and either wait it out (if it's moving fast enough), plan a route through/around them, or turn around and head home (if it looks to stagnate or regroup). I figure if I get the opportunity to fly, then making it to my destination is a bonus!

 

[wsuffa]

Bill,

If you come to my workshop in Frederick (you are coming, right?) I present a couple of similar scenarios that we'll discuss in detail. Hits right at the heart of this kind of situation...except with a more subtle twist...

Still trying to work schedule for September. Will be there if I can.

Thought I'd toss a scenario out here to see what others might have done. As you know, the scenario changes with any of several factors that I laid out. And (for sake of simplicity), I left off an option or two.

 

[Morne]

So, what would YOUR call have been?

 

[wsuffa]

So, what would YOUR call have been?

Given the specific circumstances, in particular the time pressure, and the stated uncertainty in the forecast, I chose not to make the trip. This was not a must-do trip. Additional factor was the passenger (for reasons not germane to the discussion, the passenger also wanted to see the friend). Had any of several factors been different (like no time pressure on the return), I might well have decided otherwise.

Plan B was to fly to KLEX (which was outside the most significant part of the affected area) and rent a car to drive the 90 minutes to Dayton (I'd have changed the lunch place to somewhere closer to Cincinnati). Adding up the time involved (including the time to fetch a rental car at LEX), it would have been longer than I wanted to spend in travel that day.

So, lunch has been rescheduled.

What's fun about this one is the ability to look back and see how I might have looked at things differently. As it turned out, I most likely could have made the outbound trip into Dayton via MGW/AIR/APE without a problem. The return would have been more problematic - most likely requiring a route down over LEX, then across southern Kentucky, western Virginia, and back up to DC over Roanoke. But I didn't have enough confidence in the forecast over the full 7 hour period to give it a "go" call, especially with the described passenger (I've flown with the passenger before, 3 hours is "max" leg-length for passenger).

Stopping and waiting out the storm when heading eastbound was a non-starter as these were lines of storms moving in the eastbound direction. Westbound, yes, it's easy to stop and wait it out (BTDT plenty of times).

 

[Banjo33]

Ooooh, I didn't see that you were wanting to make the trip and return on the same day. That's a whole different scenario in that case! You need MUCH better WX in that case. I'm thinking slight to zero chance of convection along the entire route. Otherwise you risk having to make a red-eye in order to get home before Monday AM, which is a lot of pressure.

 

[wsuffa]

Ooooh, I didn't see that you were wanting to make the trip and return on the same day. That's a whole different scenario in that case! You need MUCH better WX in that case. I'm thinking slight to zero chance of convection along the entire route. Otherwise you risk having to make a red-eye in order to get home before Monday AM, which is a lot of pressure.

"Slight to zero" is not the criteria for me - with onboard nexrad and stormscope & the turbocharger, I'm willing to navigate around pop-ups that frequently happen in the summer. What IS an issue is a long line of probably convective activity that's harder to circumnavigate (like a squall line). And forecasts that rapidly change due to uncertainty.

The more I learn, the more I realize what more I need to know.

 

[Anthony]

"Slight to zero" is not the criteria for me - with onboard nexrad and stormscope & the turbocharger, I'm willing to navigate around pop-ups that frequently happen in the summer. What IS an issue is a long line of probably convective activity that's harder to circumnavigate (like a squall line). And forecasts that rapidly change due to uncertainty.

The more I learn, the more I realize what more I need to know.

At least with that equipment you can turn around, divert, and sit it out, but due to your time constraints, you made the right call.

 

[wsuffa]

So, I did find a plot of the weather along the route at 0730 local (half hour past decision time, and 30 minutes before proposed launch time):

Link to Flightaware

Note that I'd have been arriving in Dayton from the ESE (in other words, direct route through the two "lines" of heavy precip). In the plot above, the PSA flight made a deviation around the stuff just SE of Dayton.

This is the (as it turned out) radar picture shortly before the proposed 2 PM return launch time: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UCA4812/history/20120617/1738Z/KDAY/KCLE. You could count on the cells 1) moving SW to NE, and increasing in intensity with daytime heating.

 

[Henning]

I look at those images and I see what I expected to see, a relatively easy and clear path though the line, a couple even, that only require a minor rerouting, typical for this time of year.

 

[Alexb2000]

I'd go, no question. You can always divert or land if something changes.

 

[Skylane81E]

I watched the low ceiling churn even between bands of storms.

I'm tall and don't like to hit my head...

 

[Alexb2000]

With no disrespect to the OP, but isn't this a better example of the different kinds of flying vs. a weather go/no go?

90 percent of my flying is getting someplace I need to go on a schedule. So I fly in bad weather all the time, and because of that I might be more comfortable in the scenario described. That said, if I was just going out to burn gas, I might skip it and eat locally.

This is true in all of us and one reason I believe every pilot should take long cross countries several times a year in all weather just to stay comfortable with it.

 

[wsuffa]

With no disrespect to the OP, but isn't this a better example of the different kinds of flying vs. a weather go/no go?

The decision was not strictly a weather go/no-go. It was the combination of factors related to this specific set of circumstances. As I noted before, change in any of the factors may (or may not) have altered the decision.

90 percent of my flying is getting someplace I need to go on a schedule. So I fly in bad weather all the time, and because of that I might be more comfortable in the scenario described. That said, if I was just going out to burn gas, I might skip it and eat locally.

This is true in all of us and one reason I believe every pilot should take long cross countries several times a year in all weather just to stay comfortable with it.

As noted, I'm quite comfortable with the weather in general - it was a "chain of factors" decision. Had there not been the Monday AM meeting, the answer probably would have been different. Had the passenger not been traveling along (leaving them behind was not an option), the decision would probably have been different. Etc. Etc.

It's not a matter of frequent cross-countries (about 75% of my time is long X-C, long being defined as >2.5 hours) in all kinds of weather, it's a matter of considering the totality of the circumstances and reliability of the forecasts.

 

[Alexb2000]

The decision was not strictly a weather go/no-go. It was the combination of factors related to this specific set of circumstances. As I noted before, change in any of the factors may (or may not) have altered the decision.



As noted, I'm quite comfortable with the weather in general - it was a "chain of factors" decision. Had there not been the Monday AM meeting, the answer probably would have been different. Had the passenger not been traveling along (leaving them behind was not an option), the decision would probably have been different. Etc. Etc.

It's not a matter of frequent cross-countries (about 75% of my time is long X-C, long being defined as >2.5 hours) in all kinds of weather, it's a matter of considering the totality of the circumstances and reliability of the forecasts.

Not all of my comments were directed at you, none were a criticism of anyone. Other posters said they have a zero convective tolerance, etc. nothing wrong with that, I'm only saying it's a different kind of flying, and that day wasn't for everyone.

So aside from just not wanting to go (I can understand that), were there any aviation reasons not to fly in your opinion?

 

[danhagan]

In my area I'd go ... but, I'm in the desert and when storms are in my area, you can see them for miles and steer clear VFR. We don't get embedded cells problems in my area that you flat landers suffer. Our storms do move fast, so you have to watch that you aren't in a position you get squeezed.

 

[wsuffa]

So aside from just not wanting to go (I can understand that), were there any aviation reasons not to fly in your opinion?

Plane's fine.

In my opinion there was enough uncertainty in the forecast coupled with the passenger & time pressure to make the decision to not go. I've done plenty of business travel in my plane - had this been a business meeting w/no passenger, I would have gone (probably with the routing to the south, with LEX as the alternate if a hole hadn't opened up on the east side of Cincy toward Dayton).

Wish I had retained the weather model maps from the time period. It's a lot easier to look back and say "coulda"....

 

[MitchB]

Given the specific circumstances, in particular the time pressure, and the stated uncertainty in the forecast, I chose not to make the trip. This was not a must-do trip. Additional factor was the passenger (for reasons not germane to the discussion, the passenger also wanted to see the friend). Had any of several factors been different (like no time pressure on the return), I might well have decided otherwise.

This.

The factors - those other than the weather - are actually what make the forecast a show stopper for me.

I like to always have "an out", and these factors + the forecast make this the kind "box" that end in mishaps.
1. A hard time line = reason to push your limits
2. Seeing a friend / carrying a friend = potential distraction from personal limits
3. Weather that turns worse as you are flying. Too often I've seen senior / mature / experienced pilots continue to fly into bad weather and "self-generate the mindset" that every minute I'm OK, makes this an OK decision...