What happened to the long term forecasts?

[ScottM]

I have a trip that departs tomorrow and returns on Sunday. I remember there used to be some nice guesses at what the weather would be for 3,4,5,6,7 days from now. But I cannot find one product. Everything stops 48 hours form now.

The temps look good and I am not expecting icing issues but I am concerned about visibility and ceilings upon my return because the only approach into my home airport is a GPS-B or a VOR-A and I need reasonable ceilings and vis (800-1000AGL and 1sm). I suppose if I had to I could get close to home and shoot an ILS into some other place, leaving the plane for a day or two. But I would prefer to have something helping me with my guesses.

I have been watching the MOS products from NOAA and they help a little. Although right now they are only forecasting to 0600Z on Saturday. My planned arrival is 1700Z on Sunday.

Anyone know of some long term forecast sources?

 

[jesse]

I don't think you're going to find a forecast that is going to provide ceiling information for Sunday that you can make any sort of a reliable decision based upon.

 

[Greg Bockelman]

I don't think you're going to find a forecast that is going to provide ceiling information for Sunday that you can make any sort of a reliable decision based upon.

++++1

 

[Ted]

I've had decent luck with the MOS forecasts if it's not marginal. Give it a shot:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/index.html

Note: This doesn't go until Sunday at this point, and expect it to change a lot of it's currently showing anything below about 3,000 ft ceilings.

 

[ScottM]

And I am not asking for anything "Reliable" I believe I used the word guess more than once. The only realibale forecast I am aware of is the one that starts of with the phrase 'the weather was or is...'

What happened to the old forecast that used to go out that far?

I still see the weather guessers on TV doing 7 and 10 day forecasts. Surely they are not creating their own guesses.

I saw that the MOS forecast go out past 48 hours, but like I said in my first post, they are just going to midnight Saturday right now.

 

[Greg Bockelman]

I still see the weather guessers on TV doing 7 and 10 day forecasts. Surely they are not creating their own guesses.

Anything past about 36 hours is of zero value to me at least.

 

[RMCN172RG]

I use this for long range possibility of making a trip planning.

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/midatlanticWeek.php?page=1&element=MinT

 

[Areeda]

My favorite long term is http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusWeek.php?expandweek=ON#tabs

Edit: Looks like the same one Ray posted with different options

Joe

 

[Dave Siciliano]

I like to look further out at least to see where major systems are and where they are forming an moving. Helps me decide if I need to be more flexible on return days from trips. This at least shows the big picture five days out.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/index.html

Best,

Dave

 

[ScottM]

Anyone know of some long term forecast sources?

I use this for long range possibility of making a trip planning.

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/midatlanticWeek.php?page=1&element=MinT

My favorite long term is http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/conusWeek.php?expandweek=ON#tabs

Edit: Looks like the same one Ray posted with different options

Joe

Thanks that is exactly what I was looking for. I wonder why AOPA WX no longer shows those?

 

[bbchien]

All you can do is look four days up the jetstream. Right about now, that means look at what's just offshore the pacific, for midwest flying on Saturday.

Also look at the upper level predictions at 48 hours as a hint as to where the jetstream is going to bend in 96 hours......

 

[HPNPilot1200]

http://www.usairnet.com displays MOS data in a graphical forecast format that seems to work pretty well.

 

[Teller1900]

Accuweather also does some long term forecasts, but they're pretty generic; not really aviation oriented.