Weather decision making process

CJones

CJones

Final Approach
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I'm sitting here thumbing through a few different weather sites trying to plan our trip to Alabama this afternoon. There are so many sites out there that all offer their own 'spin' on weather presentation, I started wondering what other people use as their decision making 'process'? Is there a step-by-step process that you usually go through when making weather decisions about a trip?

For me, I usually plan the flight via DUATS, which gives me a quick-and-dirty ETE for the trip. Then I get a Route Briefing from DUATS, which gives me TAF's along my route. It also gives me METARS for airports along the route for the past few update cycles, which allows me to make generalizations about trends in certain areas. I also get a quick look at winds aloft to determine if there is an optimal altitude for speed.

After DUATS, I usually go to ADDS.aviationweather.gov Flight Path Tool and plot my route on the map, then look at AIRMET's, etc. If I'm going to be in the clouds, I will also get a general feel for the icing situation from ADDS and adjust enroute altitudes accordingly.

This process usually works until about 1 hr before departure when I actually look at NWS radar to see if my plan will still hold. If there are buildups, I try to find a route around the buildups, plot it in DUATS (for ETE calculations, TAF for new areas, METARs, etc.), then rework everything through ADDS.

What is your guys' weather making process? I'm not really talking about go/no-go criteria, just what sources and in what order do you go about gathering your information? Since I am studying "Operations Supply Chain Management", I am wondering if I am using the most efficient process. ;)
 
CJones said:
Is there a step-by-step process that you usually go through when making weather decisions about a trip?
Click to expand...

First, 2-3 days before a flight, I'll look at the local forecast on http://www.nws.noaa.gov/. This isn't an aviation site, but can give you a heads-up on trends. In the Pittsburgh area any forecast more than 48 hours is suspect -- there are simply too many variables.


Next, I look at the Surface Prognostic Charts here: http://adds.aviationweather.gov/progs/. These are the most relevant to aviation -- you can see the forecast movement of highs, lows, and fronts, which is most applicable to VFR flying. Highs usually (not always, but usually) indicate VFR weather. there may be clouds and even rain, but it will be the showery type and the visibility and ceilings VFR).


Then, I look at the 500mb chart (found on in the synopsis section under Constant pressure Charts: 500mb FL 180) to get an idea where the lows are heading. Think of the 500mb chart as the steering patterns for the surface pressure systems. If there's a deep low to the northeast, and the surface chart shows a low southwest, you can bet the low will cross overhead, and spoil your VFR flight plans.


The night before the flight I check the Area Forecast (FA) and look in the area I will be flying (i.e., "PA"). I might take a look at the TAFs for the airports where I'll be flying also, to see what the forecast is (http://adds.aviationweather.gov/tafs/ -- be sure to enter the full airport identifier separated by a space, such as KPIT KMGW KAGC).


The day of the flight I have a pretty good idea before I log on what to expect -- I look out the window and see if what's out there matches what was forecast.


Then I use the Java Tool to look at the flight path.


If IFR I use the AOPA flight planner to plan the route, download a weather and NOTAM brief, and file. On the way to the airport I call FSS and get an abbreviated briefing on the route of flight. usually this confirms what I downloaded and read, but it's good to have clarification by specialists trained to interpret the weather.


If VFR (which I rarely use for x-country over 50 miles any more), I'll check the METARS in and around where I'll be flying using the cell phone weather or the weather info at the airport.


Once in flight VFR it's the eyeballs and seat of the pants, along with some AWOS/ASOS listening as I fly. IFR I supplement those with a Garmin 496 with XM, looking at NEXRAD radar returns and comparing to the on-board StormScope.



I'm still learning daily about weather and its impact on flight -- and I'm sure this won't stop -- there's simply too much to know.


But a daily routine of examining the prognostics and the depictions and comparing notes with what you expected can reap huge rewards in your ability to sniff trouble and avoid it.
 
I pretty much just go through the info on ADDS and check for ice/t-storms. Anything else is a non-issue for me.
 
yea chris, I really like the Flight Path Tool on ADDS. its basically running non stop on my home computer.
 
I think that you are a prime customer for Scott Dennstaedt's CD "Internet Wx Brief Roadmap." Among dozens of other things, it includes the checklist you need. Go to www.chesavtraining.com for info.

Bob Gardner
 
Dan,.. that's a great list. Similar to what I try to do,.. but I'm still learning. Thanks for taking the time to put in all those links too....
 
bobmrg said:
I think that you are a prime customer for Scott Dennstaedt's CD "Internet Wx Brief Roadmap." Among dozens of other things, it includes the checklist you need. Go to www.chesavtraining.com for info.

Bob Gardner
Click to expand...

Wow! No kidding! That (among ALL of Scott's other CD's) are on my wish-list. :yes:
 
I check weather.com the days leading up to the flight.
night before the flight I'll look at TAFs along the route with aviationweather.gov
Morning of, I wake up, eat breakfast, go onto DUAT, get a route briefing and file my flightplan, head out to the airport, and check the weather there (either on aviationweather.gov, the FBOs weather computer, or FSS generally in that order of preference - I prefer the first 2 to look at the radar and satellite pics)
 
I use Voyager, check various weather sites, etc.

I have not used the Flight Path Tool but will definitely give it a try!
 
CJones said:
I'm sitting here thumbing through a few different weather sites trying to plan our trip to Alabama this afternoon. There are so many sites out there that all offer their own 'spin' on weather presentation, I started wondering what other people use as their decision making 'process'? Is there a step-by-step process that you usually go through when making weather decisions about a trip?

For me, I usually plan the flight via DUATS, which gives me a quick-and-dirty ETE for the trip. Then I get a Route Briefing from DUATS, which gives me TAF's along my route. It also gives me METARS for airports along the route for the past few update cycles, which allows me to make generalizations about trends in certain areas. I also get a quick look at winds aloft to determine if there is an optimal altitude for speed.

After DUATS, I usually go to ADDS.aviationweather.gov Flight Path Tool and plot my route on the map, then look at AIRMET's, etc. If I'm going to be in the clouds, I will also get a general feel for the icing situation from ADDS and adjust enroute altitudes accordingly.

This process usually works until about 1 hr before departure when I actually look at NWS radar to see if my plan will still hold. If there are buildups, I try to find a route around the buildups, plot it in DUATS (for ETE calculations, TAF for new areas, METARs, etc.), then rework everything through ADDS.

What is your guys' weather making process? I'm not really talking about go/no-go criteria, just what sources and in what order do you go about gathering your information? Since I am studying "Operations Supply Chain Management", I am wondering if I am using the most efficient process. ;)
Click to expand...

I check winds aloft and prog charts first to determine if flying myself is even an option. No point flying into a 40 knot headwind, especially if you don't get the same tailwind on the way back. In our Cherokee that only does 120knots, anything more than 20 knots is a big factor. ADDS winds aloft only goes out 3 days, but the folks there told me that they have data further into the future. I am looking forward to that data becoming available. May be its just me, but I've made plenty of flight with headwinds both ways, and that just doesn't sit well with me. If the wind is unfavorable, I will book an airline flight or rental car.
 
Ralph Butcher's column in the current (June 2008) issue of Flight Training Magazine has a great countdown list starting from one week out by watching the Weather Channel, going through departure and enroute weather products. If you are an AOPA member, you can read the article here.

I also like maps.avnwx.com, a site that Tony Condon mentioned here quite a while ago. It shows METARs, TAFs, SIGMETs, TFRs, PIREPS, Winds Aloft, and even current NEXRAD images, all superimposed on a map. All you have to do is mouse over various spots, and a box pops up with the information. It even shows GoFlyAmerica status for the airports!
________
starcraft replays
 
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EdFred said:
I pretty much just go through the info on ADDS and check for ice/t-storms. Anything else is a non-issue for me.
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That's pretty much all I do. FRZ LVLs, radar, winds, TFRs, and METAR/TAFs. If I'm really anxious about getting to my destination exactly on time, I might check the medium range forecasts and models. Usually, I can afford to get there +- a few hours, and I've realized that there's not much weather that will make a flight impossible if I can adjust my departure by a few hours.

It helps that I usually fly 400+ NM. TS lines become a non-issue if you deviate early. With XM weather, I usually launch if there aren't any large TS system nearby even if the destination looks questionable. Convective weather changes quickly, and more often than not, a way around becomes clear a few hours into the flight.

I used to be "weather obsessed", but I realized a while ago that the only thing that matters to me is not getting into dangerous weather and that almost every day is flyable. I've derived little utility from staring at weather reports days and hours before flights. So it's best altitude for winds, anything of immediate danger, and NOTAMs.

-Felix
 
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I wouldn't say I'm "weather obsessed" but I do keep an eye on the weather map routinely. My flying schedule is fairly open-ended so the next flight might come at any time and it's good to have in mind where the best and the worst is located weatherwise even when I'm not flying.

I use FliteSoft to get an overview of the route wx. Then ADDS for more details. I also use the NWS location weather page for trends. The hourly graph you can view for a given location is handy for getting an idea when the fog will lift or the front will pass if you don't try to look too far into the future.

sba55 said:
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I used to be "weather obsessed", but I realized a while ago that the only thing that matters to me is not getting into dangerous weather and that almost every day is flyable. I've derived little utility from staring at weather reports days and hours before flights. So it's best altitude for winds, anything of immediate danger, and NOTAMs.

-Felix
Click to expand...
 
sba55 said:
I used to be "weather obsessed", but I realized a while ago that the only thing that matters to me is not getting into dangerous weather and that almost every day is flyable. I've derived little utility from staring at weather reports days and hours before flights. So it's best altitude for winds, anything of immediate danger, and NOTAMs
Click to expand...

True, while "weather obsession" may be overkill, reviewing forecasts and then evaluating them for accuracy will help any pilot be a better consumer of weather information.
 
dmccormack said:
True, while "weather obsession" may be overkill, reviewing forecasts and then evaluating them for accuracy will help any pilot be a better consumer of weather information.
Click to expand...
Yes, but you missed my point, which was that I don't care very much about forecasts or their accuracy. If I have a few hours to play with, I can get there on almost any day, and the truly dangerous weather isn't forecast with much precision.

Steve - makes sense. If I was looking for the best times to fly, forecasts would be more important.
 
sba55 said:
Yes, but you missed my point, which was that I don't care very much about forecasts or their accuracy. If I have a few hours to play with, I can get there on almost any day, and the truly dangerous weather isn't forecast with much precision.
Click to expand...

No.. I see your point -- my point is that an interest in weather prognostics and outputs will be further education for any pilot by comparing what's out the window vis what was forecast and then trying to determine why.

I agree that on most days, an IFR pilot with a capable aircraft has only to be concerned with icing thresholds and actual squall lines and thunderstorms.

Not everyone flies that sort of airplane, however.
 
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