Henning said:
And that's all part of why I think it would be a good deal. SWA needs somewhere to go, and UAL needs someone to take over. There was more to SWA than peanuts and crackers and dumping first class.
Yeah, there was. But it's well recognized within SWA that there are huge challenges in managing the company.
I think a linkup with UAL could kill SWA. Completely. There are huge cultural differences, and culture is the defining factor in the success of a merger. There are also significant overlaps in the route system, enough that it's not a clear strategic fit.
Take a look at USAir and America West. That was a very complementary merger, and it's still presenting big challenges on the integration. I think it will succeed in the end, but it won't be easy.
SWA would be a better match for somebody like VirginAtlantic that has the Europe route system. Domestically, JetBlue might be a possibility.
The other link-ups that make sense would put Midwest airlines with MaxJet for international service. Midwest is small, but has a unique product, as does MaxJet... they're similar in terms of product, so there's no branding or marketing issue. Likewise, CO and DL might make sense given that there's not a ton of overlap (although either the CVG or CLE hub would have to go). LIkewise, DL and NW or CO and NW could make sense.
I've done enough M&A transactions and integrations to say that I would recommend against a UA/SW transaction, were I evaluating the deal based on what I know today.
It may be that UA gets snapped up by a private equity group that's willing to take on the regulatory risk of trying to merge it with another group. The challenge there is that an airline is by nature highly leveraged, what with most of the aircraft being leased. Most PE groups like to cut costs, extract value, and lever the company up a lot to boost the equity value. UA's current structure makes that harder to do.
Those are my opinions based on my past corporate development work and M&A work. For a somewhat different take, this is an interesting perspective:
http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm#Hot Flash - September 25, 2006 (by the way, elsewhere on that page is a very to-the-point article on the TSA.)