Tomorrow

[azure]

Winter is making a comeback in Michigan over the next two days. Toward KFNT and KBAX they are expecting freezing rain tonight. But here, farther south in metro Detroit, they are only expecting rain through 00Z Monday, in fact the rain is expected to come to an end by 15Z or so, with low MVFR ceilings lingering through the afternoon. The interesting thing is that the mid levels in the southern parts are supposed to stay well above freezing for quite a few hours afterward, as long as you are east of US-23, basically a line from KFNT to KTOL. At KVLL the current Skew-T forecasts show about 5C up at 5000 MSL and nothing below 3C anywhere between there and the surface (they show decreasing temps for the first 2000 feet or so, then a well-defined inversion -- I'm thinking a lot of moisture trapped under that inversion, so visibility might not be so good, but still...)

Might this be a chance to get my ticket wet, say for a couple of hours starting in the 16-17Z time frame? (This is assuming that the morning soundings don't show a different picture.) What I'm proposing is not a XC but just shooting a few approaches into KPTK, then coming back and flying the RNAV into home base.

Part of me says wait and see, but another part says maybe this is too close for comfort regardless, with the forecast tight thermal gradient implying too great a chance of lower than forecast temps and ice if the colder air starts working farther east. What say folks here? Would you go or no go? I plan to check the CIP/FIP as well as airmets... wondering what other forecast tools would help clarify the picture?

 

[gismo]

Winter is making a comeback in Michigan over the next two days. Toward KFNT and KBAX they are expecting freezing rain tonight. But here, farther south in metro Detroit, they are only expecting rain through 00Z Monday, in fact the rain is expected to come to an end by 15Z or so, with low MVFR ceilings lingering through the afternoon. The interesting thing is that the mid levels in the southern parts are supposed to stay well above freezing for quite a few hours afterward, as long as you are east of US-23, basically a line from KFNT to KTOL. At KVLL the current Skew-T forecasts show about 5C up at 5000 MSL and nothing below 3C anywhere between there and the surface (they show decreasing temps for the first 2000 feet or so, then a well-defined inversion -- I'm thinking a lot of moisture trapped under that inversion, so visibility might not be so good, but still...)

Might this be a chance to get my ticket wet, say for a couple of hours starting in the 16-17Z time frame? (This is assuming that the morning soundings don't show a different picture.) What I'm proposing is not a XC but just shooting a few approaches into KPTK, then coming back and flying the RNAV into home base.

Part of me says wait and see, but another part says maybe this is too close for comfort regardless, with the forecast tight thermal gradient implying too great a chance of lower than forecast temps and ice if the colder air starts working farther east. What say folks here? Would you go or no go? I plan to check the CIP/FIP as well as airmets... wondering what other forecast tools would help clarify the picture?

In general, as long as the wx is coming from the opposite direction as your home base you ought to be able to make a hasty retreat if things develop faster than predicted.

 

[azure]

Well the thermal profile from the soundings hasn't changed much since last night. It looks like up near KPTK there is/will be a thin cold "nose" around 2000 MSL that is below freezing. Everywhere else in this area is above freezing up to about 8000 feet. There are no icing airmets for SE MI beyond 15Z, and the current airmet is only above 8000. The CIP/FIP shows zero forecast icing anywhere below 13000 all the way to 19Z for areas east of KLAN, then it starts to edge closer in the lower levels with a very sharp cutoff, west of which there is forecast SLD.

The only problem is that the ceilings have come up quicker than forecast everywhere except north of KFNT and down towards KTOL. Might not be worth the trouble. I'll have to keep watching and see whether the trend continues.

 

[Marauder]

Well the thermal profile from the soundings hasn't changed much since last night. It looks like up near KPTK there is/will be a thin cold "nose" around 2000 MSL that is below freezing. Everywhere else in this area is above freezing up to about 8000 feet. There are no icing airmets for SE MI beyond 15Z, and the current airmet is only above 8000. The CIP/FIP shows zero forecast icing anywhere below 13000 all the way to 19Z for areas east of KLAN, then it starts to edge closer in the lower levels with a very sharp cutoff, west of which there is forecast SLD.

The only problem is that the ceilings have come up quicker than forecast everywhere except north of KFNT and down towards KTOL. Might not be worth the trouble. I'll have to keep watching and see whether the trend continues.

I flew for years in upstate NY near Lakes Erie and Ontario. You need to be careful with temperature inversions and the weird stuff that happens with it. If the winds aloft are pulling air across the lake and your flight path, all bets are off. Icing predictions made by the forecasters are based on a number of factors. Where ice actually is often a totally different story.

Any of us who fly near the lakes will tell you how weird icing can be. I always look for the tops reports and try to stay away on days where I may not be able to out climb it if I encounter it. I also would like to have a decent base report. The last thing you want is to have conditions where you can't get above or below it. I have a healthy respect for icing especially since I fly without FIKI equipment.

 

[azure]

Yes, me too (no FIKI). I'm off to the airport to think some more about this and maybe talk to my CFII. The lifting ceiling is actually a positive since now the cloud bases are well into the inversion. I may just file to somewhere like KPHN at 5000 or so just to get solo experience in actual, even though it's not really IFR conditions and I won't get a loggable approach from it. The winds are not actually off any nearby lakes right now though (Lake Michigan is usually far enough away to not have much affect this far east), but I don't like forecast temps JUST above freezing in the clouds.

I was toying with the idea of going down to KTOL, but I see they're actually getting precip now -- making for the possibility of a thin layer of freezing rain if the thermal profile is just a tad colder than predicted. Definitely to be avoided.

 

[Marauder]

Yes, me too (no FIKI). I'm off to the airport to think some more about this and maybe talk to my CFII. The lifting ceiling is actually a positive since now the cloud bases are well into the inversion. I may just file to somewhere like KPHN at 5000 or so just to get solo experience in actual, even though it's not really IFR conditions and I won't get a loggable approach from it. The winds are not actually off any nearby lakes right now though (Lake Michigan is usually far enough away to not have much affect this far east), but I don't like forecast temps JUST above freezing in the clouds.

I was toying with the idea of going down to KTOL, but I see they're actually getting precip now -- making for the possibility of a thin layer of freezing rain if the thermal profile is just a tad colder than predicted. Definitely to be avoided.

Sounds like you are going about this correctly. Poking the lion with a long stick is fine for learning. Sticking your head into the lion's mouth is a different story

 

[azure]

So I consulted with my CFII and discussed all the options. In the end the fact that the cold layer was very thin (< 500 feet) with no icing forecast was the deciding factor, and I decided to file to KPTK. I'll start another thread about my experience, since it was rather interesting.