The Great Warming - Brian Fagan

Gary

En-Route
Joined
Feb 26, 2005
Messages
3,251
Location
Harleysville, PA
Display Name

Display name:
Gary
So.. what if the Earth's mean temperature rises 3 degress C? What will things look like?

IMHO, Brian Fagan does a credible job of "forensic metereology" by looking at the time period of ~700AD to ~1400AD, a period he calls the Great Medieval Warm Period where global mean temperature increased about 3 degrees. Chock full of different studies by different scientists from coral reef experts to ice sheet coring to lay out what the Earth's climate was like during that time.

Bottom line... it ain't pretty for some people.

The result of this shift in temperature resulted in warmer, stable and wetter weather in Europe and eastern Asia which increased food production, allowed for greater travel and the growth of cities, culture and a blossoming population. Fits in well with Guns, Germs and Steel which has a similar conclusion, but for somewhat different reasons.

Things were not so good for other parts of the world, such as the American Southwest, Central America and northern China. Severe droughts (much worse than we have experienced in the last 500 years)caused major disruptions including famine, collapse of governments and mass migrations of the survirors.

It is Mr. Fagan's view that the next war will not be about oil, political supremacy or land but over water.

A very good read, well thought out and logically organized. Mr. Fagan does a good job of explaining rather technical theories such as the differences between an El Nino and a La Nina and how the North Atlantic Oscillation can affect weather far beyond the Atlantic area.

Clearly the author believes that "Global Warming" is a threat, but his arguments are not shrill and he backs them up with facts.

Think I'll install my water cistern next week. :D

Gary
 
Brian Fagan does a credible job of "forensic metereology" by looking at the time period of ~700AD to ~1400AD, a period he calls the Great Medieval Warm Period...

To be clear, Fagan did not coin the term for that period.

It is Mr. Fagan's view that the next war will not be about oil, political supremacy or land but over water.

War between whom?

Clearly the author believes that "Global Warming" is a threat, but his arguments are not shrill and he backs them up with facts.

I wonder if he agrees with Hansen re: trying CEOs skeptical of AGW for "high crimes against humanity".
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/23/fossilfuels.climatechange
 
Gary;

Thanks for the write up on Brian Fagan's work. I have read some exerpts but not the whole book. I will definately check it out.
Thanks

John J
 
It is Mr. Fagan's view that the next war will not be about oil, political supremacy or land but over water.

I think that's a plausible hypothesis. After all, water is our most important commodity. He must also point out the natural heating and cooling of the Earth over the previous centuries and millenia, well before we coud blame mankind. Climate shifts will happen as long as there is a sun heating the earth.
 
To be clear, Fagan did not coin the term for that period.

War between whom?

I wonder if he agrees with Hansen re: trying CEOs skeptical of AGW for "high crimes against humanity".


http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/23/fossilfuels.climatechange

Didn't know that others have used the term, but then I'm no global climatologist.

The author does not give a prediction on who may be at war, it's quite possible it will be regional rather than based on political boundaries,

I'll have to look up Hanson and see what is position is.

Gary
 
I think that's a plausible hypothesis. After all, water is our most important commodity. He must also point out the natural heating and cooling of the Earth over the previous centuries and millenia, well before we coud blame mankind. Climate shifts will happen as long as there is a sun heating the earth.

Can't argue that! The author clearly shows how the temperature has varied over time (within the realm that we can accurately measure it!). Many people have done this, what I found unique with the book was the next step of trying to re-create what those changes did to the different societies in the world.. What I'm "warming" to (pun intended) is the fact that if indeed, our activities are going to cause a major climatic shift, the consequences will be extremely unpleasant.

Gary
 
What I'm "warming" to (pun intended) is the fact that if indeed, our activities are going to cause a major climatic shift, the consequences will be extremely unpleasant.

Can we agree on the phrase "if indeed there is a major climatic shift, the consequences may be extremely unpleasant"? :)
 
Back
Top