Gary
En-Route
So.. what if the Earth's mean temperature rises 3 degress C? What will things look like?
IMHO, Brian Fagan does a credible job of "forensic metereology" by looking at the time period of ~700AD to ~1400AD, a period he calls the Great Medieval Warm Period where global mean temperature increased about 3 degrees. Chock full of different studies by different scientists from coral reef experts to ice sheet coring to lay out what the Earth's climate was like during that time.
Bottom line... it ain't pretty for some people.
The result of this shift in temperature resulted in warmer, stable and wetter weather in Europe and eastern Asia which increased food production, allowed for greater travel and the growth of cities, culture and a blossoming population. Fits in well with Guns, Germs and Steel which has a similar conclusion, but for somewhat different reasons.
Things were not so good for other parts of the world, such as the American Southwest, Central America and northern China. Severe droughts (much worse than we have experienced in the last 500 years)caused major disruptions including famine, collapse of governments and mass migrations of the survirors.
It is Mr. Fagan's view that the next war will not be about oil, political supremacy or land but over water.
A very good read, well thought out and logically organized. Mr. Fagan does a good job of explaining rather technical theories such as the differences between an El Nino and a La Nina and how the North Atlantic Oscillation can affect weather far beyond the Atlantic area.
Clearly the author believes that "Global Warming" is a threat, but his arguments are not shrill and he backs them up with facts.
Think I'll install my water cistern next week.
Gary
IMHO, Brian Fagan does a credible job of "forensic metereology" by looking at the time period of ~700AD to ~1400AD, a period he calls the Great Medieval Warm Period where global mean temperature increased about 3 degrees. Chock full of different studies by different scientists from coral reef experts to ice sheet coring to lay out what the Earth's climate was like during that time.
Bottom line... it ain't pretty for some people.
The result of this shift in temperature resulted in warmer, stable and wetter weather in Europe and eastern Asia which increased food production, allowed for greater travel and the growth of cities, culture and a blossoming population. Fits in well with Guns, Germs and Steel which has a similar conclusion, but for somewhat different reasons.
Things were not so good for other parts of the world, such as the American Southwest, Central America and northern China. Severe droughts (much worse than we have experienced in the last 500 years)caused major disruptions including famine, collapse of governments and mass migrations of the survirors.
It is Mr. Fagan's view that the next war will not be about oil, political supremacy or land but over water.
A very good read, well thought out and logically organized. Mr. Fagan does a good job of explaining rather technical theories such as the differences between an El Nino and a La Nina and how the North Atlantic Oscillation can affect weather far beyond the Atlantic area.
Clearly the author believes that "Global Warming" is a threat, but his arguments are not shrill and he backs them up with facts.
Think I'll install my water cistern next week.
Gary