The future of pilots.

[John Baker]

I've mentioned previously on POA the concept that in the not so distant future, commercial passenger planes will be pilotless. They will be guided from the ground from point A to B. Most on this board have disagreed with me, that we will always need pilots.

Another thread is about auto pilots. Then a week or so ago, I was reading an article of how researchers are working on completely autonomous combat drones. They will launch themselves, identify and select targets, evaluate the threat, and eliminate the target if it deems necessary. In other words they will need no human input at all to accomplish their mission.

So we have pilotless drones being controlled from thousands of miles away, and now they are researching autonomous aerial robots.

Myself, in light of our snowballing advances in weaponry design, I am convinced that within the next twenty or thirty years, airlines will completely do away with pilots on their aircraft.

What then, if the airlines, through documented comparisons, prove that pilotless airliners are much safer than piloted ones?

What will become of GA when all commercial carriers are pilotless, and considered safer? Will Congress decide having piloted small airplanes flying overhead an unnecessary risk to those on the ground?

I believe our days are numbered. I don't know how long in the future our demise as pilots is going to be, but it is coming.

John

 

[MSPAviator]

I believe our days are numbered. I don't know how long in the future our demise as pilots is going to be, but it is coming.

The motorcar has replaced the horse as transportation, yet people still ride horses? Why? For fun.

 

[John Baker]

The motorcar has replaced the horse as transportation, yet people still ride horses? Why? For fun.

Horses hardly ever fly above peoples houses, airplanes do. Read the sentence just above the one you quoted. What if the public decides they do not want small airplanes flying over their homes? The question will be; Do we really need the risk so a select few rich people can have fun?

John

 

[Everskyward]

Horses hardly ever fly above peoples houses, airplanes do. Read the sentence just above the one you quoted. What if the public decides they do not want small airplanes flying over their homes? The question will be; Do we really need the risk so a select few rich people can have fun?

I think people are more likely to worry about getting into an airplane without pilots than to worry about small airplanes crashing into their home.

 

[Jim_R]

GA may wither away, but it will be due to things like operating costs going through the roof (especially fuel, and especially when 100LL is phased out for something even more expensive), older airframes becoming too expensive to maintain, the "older generation" of pilots and mechanics who've been the heart and soul of GA for 30+ years passing on with little new blood coming in to replace them, etc., etc.

Pilotless planes are not the bogeyman. We've already got enough bogeymen to kill off GA...that one's gotta get in the back of the line, and there won't be anything left by the time his number's called.

 

[zaitcev]

What if the public decides they do not want small airplanes flying over their homes? The question will be; Do we really need the risk so a select few rich people can have fun?

I'll just relocate to China and bribe the right people when that happens. Not to worry. Look, if American public is that dumb, the worse for the public.

 

[wabower]

OOC, John, why in hell is somebody your age (or mine) speding even a second writhing about what happens to GA 20 years from now? Shouldn't be be more concerned with the holding power of adult diapers? Or better yet, shouldn't we be spending our time at the airport while we can still remember how to get there?

 

[John Baker]

OOC, John, why in hell is somebody your age (or mine) speding even a second writhing about what happens to GA 20 years from now? Shouldn't be be more concerned with the holding power of adult diapers? Or better yet, shouldn't we be spending our time at the airport while we can still remember how to get there?

I'm old, true, but I still love bringing up subjects that will rattle em a little.

Your right, unless they come up with some miracle cure for old age, but then why would the want to do that? Social Security payments alone would bring that idea to a screeching halt.

John

 

[denverpilot]

I've yet to meet an engineer of a pilotless airplane willing to volunteer to be the first passenger. That'll be a landmark moment.

SkyNet is running late on becoming self-aware.

 

[Anthony]

SkyNet is running late on becoming self-aware.

That's exactly where this is going. Robots, and unmanned drones fighting each other while people stay safe at home.

As automation continues, I see commercial pilots just being aircraft systems managers, and there for the event of failure. Oh, wait.............

 

[Jim_R]

Of all the transportation systems in America, wouldn't freight trains be the easist to completely automate? The track is static, the route is predetermined, the options along the way are very few.

But I don't think anyone's planning to do away with train engineers in the near future. Why?

I'll start looking for planes to go pilotless after the trains go that way.

 

[Morne]

You should examine your hypothesis from a few other angles:

-Could commercial ocean-cruise-liners/freighters/tankers be run exclusively by computers today? Yes. Are they? No.

-Does automation require very costly equipment/software? Yes. Are other expensive safety equipment currently used by airlines required today for GA (like TCAS)? No.

-What software company will write the code and thus assume the liability for the inevitable crash? It might be technically possible, but legal suicide. Lawyers have been crushing innovation in our society for YEARS.

Just some food for thought.

 

[Everskyward]

I'll start looking for planes to go pilotless after the trains go that way.

There are pilotless trains on a small scale such as the ones that run around airports. Both DEN and SFO have automated trains without drivers.

 

[MBDiagMan]

GA may wither away, but it will be due to things like operating costs going through the roof (especially fuel, and especially when 100LL is phased out for something even more expensive), older airframes becoming too expensive to maintain, the "older generation" of pilots and mechanics who've been the heart and soul of GA for 30+ years passing on with little new blood coming in to replace them, etc., etc.

Pilotless planes are not the bogeyman. We've already got enough bogeymen to kill off GA...that one's gotta get in the back of the line, and there won't be anything left by the time his number's called.

I think part of your commentary strikes home with what I've observed since flying this past year:

I am 62 years old and the vast majority of people around my airport and elsewhere I fly, are older than myself rather than younger. If something doesn't happen to cause a wave of young people learning to fly, GA could very well virtually go away.

We had a meeting at our little airport Tuesday afternoon and except for the crop duster there, I was the youngest out of about 18 people, most all pilots. The crop duster is in his fifties, so I think it's safe to say that there is not a wave of young people flying at our airport.

I think that where there are flight schools, this is most likely a much different situation with lots of young people around.

Doc

 

[fgcason]

Eventually everything will be George Jetson: Get in, push one button, say destination and it'll fly/drive itself there. There will be 175 billion people on the planet packed in like sardines. When an engine does quit and the computer can't solve the problem, there will be so many people that nobody will even notice that a few hundred people went missing.

Here's the thing that I have yet to see anyone come up with an automated solution for: Real world off airport forced landings. Where is the autopilot that can have the mixture pulled over, say, heavily treed mountainous New England and put the plane down in a hayfield instead of ending up in the treetops? There are lots of landing spaces if you ignore standard glide paths and survival of the airplane itself. Seriously, does anyone have a GPS database that's updated every 2 seconds and accurate down to every new sapling, moderate sized rock, cow and parked hay bailer in some obscure farmer's field on the planet? So far a human can sort that out as things change during the descent and computers don't have a chance to pull it off.

The infinitely important dollar sign will win eventually. The beancounters will eventually replace expensive pilots with mass produced low cost software even if the software can't handle anything beyond mild predefined conditions emergencies.

 

[write-stuff]

I think part of your commentary strikes home with what I've observed since flying this past year:

I am 62 years old and the vast majority of people around my airport and elsewhere I fly, are older than myself rather than younger. If something doesn't happen to cause a wave of young people learning to fly, GA could very well virtually go away.

I get this same impression. Young people in general don't consider aviation to be the adventure that they did in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. To many, an airplane is just another form of bus - people have "always" flown, just like they've always had cars to drive. Nothing exciting about it. For most of them, flying is the past, not the future.

 

[John Baker]

I'm thinking it will start in someplace like China. Once the safety record establishes that robotic systems are safer than pilots, it will be adopted by other nations. The U.S. will be one of the last hold outs, refusing landing rights or airspace to pilotless airplanes.

The biggest reason will be much the same reason railroads will not be attempting anything like it soon, the strength of their unions.

China does not have lawsuits for things like a spilled cup of coffee... yet.

John

 

[steingar]

GA will whither and die in my lifetime. I hope I don't outlive it. But folks will always want pilots in front of their airliners, whether the birds need them or not.

 

[Gmaper]

Back in the 1950's magazines like Popular Science and Popular Mechanics frequently had articles predicting that "by the 1990's we will step into our car and tell the car where to take us. The car will do all the driving and we will just ride along in luxurious comfort".

Seems like these predictions didn't quite come true.

 

[wabower]

If the GA version doesn't buzz, won't take off without enough fuel in the tanks and/or lands before it's gone, can safely navigate and land in IMC, doesn't fly drunk or impaired and can avoid stall-spin and loss of directional control during takeoff and landing, all of the issues you raised are insignificant.

If it can maintain wings level and impact whatever it happens to hit at the lowest possible combination of forward speed and vertical speed, it will be much safer than the record achieved by all the current crop of pilots. IF it happens to have a chute and knows when it must be pulled to take advantages of the inherent safety afforded by such an accessory, it will lead the league by a wide margin.

Here's the thing that I have yet to see anyone come up with an automated solution for: Real world off airport forced landings. Where is the autopilot that can have the mixture pulled over, say, heavily treed mountainous New England and put the plane down in a hayfield instead of ending up in the treetops? There are lots of landing spaces if you ignore standard glide paths and survival of the airplane itself. Seriously, does anyone have a GPS database that's updated every 2 seconds and accurate down to every new sapling, moderate sized rock, cow and parked hay bailer in some obscure farmer's field on the planet? So far a human can sort that out as things change during the descent and computers don't have a chance to pull it off.

The infinitely important dollar sign will win eventually. The beancounters will eventually replace expensive pilots with mass produced low cost software even if the software can't handle anything beyond mild predefined conditions emergencies.

 

[Art VanDelay]

There will be a man in the loop for quite some time to come. If only for marketing purposes. On the subject of young people why should they bother with all the expense and effort of grinding around the pattern in some ragged-out old C152 that's older than they are when they can slouch on the couch at home and fly an F-22 in aerial combat on their Xbox while mom makes them pizza rolls ? (actually that sounds kinda good right about now)

 

[TMetzinger]

I think that we're a long way from robo-cars or robo-trains or robo-planes, for psychological reasons.

The main reason is trust. When a passenger gets on a commercial flight, train, ferry, or cruiser, they are putting trust in the captain to get them there safely. No small part of that trust is the traditions built up over the years of captains having skin in the game - literally, and with the tradition of the captain putting his own well being behind the welfare of his passengers.

No software, no matter how well conceived and executed, is going to engender that sort of trust.

It took a long time for people to trust automated elevators, and their airport horizontal equivalents of one train on a single track. The only decision to make on those things is "is it time to stop" and "is it time to go" based on position and timers.

We may someday see automation do more for cars, but I'll bet there will be manual overrides and a licensed driver will be required. That will be the equivalent of autopilots in planes.

I think we're a long way away from driverless cars and pilotless planes.

 

[Meanee]

We are not that far off from robo trains. As mentioned, there are number of automated train systems out there. NYC even has a fully automated subway line (The L train, 8th ave to Canarsie).

Planes? I do not see it. I understand drones and all, but someone's always at controls, even if thousand miles away. Maybe at one point automation will get to the point where pilot is no longer needed, but they will sure as hell would have a pilot there babysit the aircraft.

 

[John Baker]

Fully autonomous combat drones are already in the pipeline, with a few now being deployed. The future for drones to pick out off airport landing sites, avoiding obstacles and such is not so far fetched at all. These suckers can, or will, recognize faces and make their own tactical decisions faster than a humans brain can process the thought that a threat exists.

"Automated drones already in use

While full functionality of the U.S. military’s autonomous attack drone fleet could be as far as two decades away, aerial automated robotics have already been deployed in the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea and other potential battle areas worldwide. According to sources, the U.S. military is actively funding a number of associated research projects involving autonomous combat machines and facial-recognition programs that can pick out terrorism suspects at a great distance, swoop in and deliver a missile payload."

For more; http://www.newsytype.com/11606-automated-killer-drones/

This technology will filter into the private sector, airplanes will have no need for a human pilot.

John

 

[MSPAviator]

I am 62 years old and the vast majority of people around my airport and elsewhere I fly, are older than myself rather than younger. If something doesn't happen to cause a wave of young people learning to fly, GA could very well virtually go away.

There is still interest, but most of my friends go like this when I tell them the plane costs $100/hr to rent. But spending $100 (or more) at the bar or $800 on new wheels and tires on their flashy car is no big deal.

 

[denverpilot]

There are pilotless trains on a small scale such as the ones that run around airports. Both DEN and SFO have automated trains without drivers.

I know one of the operators. They're not exactly pilotless. They're remotely driven. And he says it sucks when the remote fails or a failsafe triggers, halting the train. He gets to hoof it down the tunnel to manually drive it.

 

[Jim_R]

There are pilotless trains on a small scale such as the ones that run around airports. Both DEN and SFO have automated trains without drivers.

I was specifically talking about freight trains in my post, not subways or airport people-movers.

 

[fgcason]

There is still interest, but most of my friends go like this when I tell them the plane costs $100/hr to rent. But spending $100 (or more) at the bar or $800 on new wheels and tires on their flashy car is no big deal.

Instant gratification, image and social status.
It wouldn't be as satisfying to drive around in a faded paint 1980's clunker and the friends they're trying to impress wouldn't want to be seen with someone who had to fiddle with the engine to start it then putter over to the bar in a rattly old chevette with AM radio and torn seats.


So the question nobody really asks: Why is there such a big push to completely automate everything in the first place? Is technology really that infinitely superior? Are people so lazy that they don't want to actually do anything? What is the driving force behind it?

 

[Everskyward]

So the question nobody really asks: Why is there such a big push to completely automate everything in the first place? Is technology really that infinitely superior? Are people so lazy that they don't want to actually do anything? What is the driving force behind it?

Response to the market. I think the majority of people like new technology which makes things easier. I do too. The thing is that it requires somewhat of a learning curve before it really is easier. You only need to look at all the people who voluntarily have ditched paper charts for iPads to see this phenomenon.

 

[Dr. O]

The end of GA will be with a whimper... The people in power will respond to the 'concerns' of the voters and lean on the FAA/DOT/HSA and they will keep adding regulations until GA is priced/regulated out of the reach of any but actors with huge egos and the Bransons of this world...

The complete replacement of an ATP at the airliner controls will not happen in my lifetime or yours... Yes, the military is paying for the R&D but military pilots don't have a union... Airline pilots do, as do train engineers, airline mechanics, flight controllers and FAA/DOT employees... There is also SEIU, etc. and the fact that if B O gets a second term no testing of pilotless commercial airliners will occur in the 2011-2016 time frame as the unions simply will not allow it...

Who is President after 2016 will have vastly more effect on the progression of computer control of commercial airliners... When it does begin expect it to start with UPS/FED-EX freight flying in the midnight to 6 AM slots somewhere in Asia... Likely it will begin by reducing the cockpit to a single pilot and progress from there... Just as CAT 3 approaches "require" computer control, so will the drone control of the passenger airliner begin by reducing the cockpit to 1 pilot plus the 'First Officer' computer or a remote "drone" pilot back at some central hub...

I can see the public accepting a drone pilot as an advance in safety - won't be drunk with a supervisor standing right behind him, won't lock himself in the toilet, etc... I don't see the unions reacting that way though ... It is going to be interesting, as they say in China...

denny-o

 

[Gmaper]

But Denny, the unions are going away too. With state and local governments actively working to reduce collective bargaining rights it seems to me to be just a matter of time before unions are just a distant memory.

 

[write-stuff]

With state and local governments actively working to reduce collective bargaining rights it seems to me to be just a matter of time before unions are just a distant memory.

Finally, something good might come of all this.

 

[Anthony]

I know one of the operators. They're not exactly pilotless. They're remotely driven. And he says it sucks when the remote fails or a failsafe triggers, halting the train. He gets to hoof it down the tunnel to manually drive it.

Plus the tunnel is like a house of horrors. It must be pretty scary running by all that stuff, like the pick axes on the walls, or spinning scimitars to lop off unknowing heads.