That's what you get paid the big bucks for...

[Skip Miller]

... making difficult forecasts.

This guy is more candid in his remarks than I have seen before.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2007
DIFFICULT AVIATION FCST THIS MORNING DUE TO FG/LOW CLOUDS. NOT A
DEFINITE FG EVENT AS MOST SITES ARE JUMPING AROUND A LOT...BETWEEN
1/4SM AND 4SM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. FOR ALL SITES WE HAVE AT
LEAST INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR AROUND OR BELOW FIELD
MINS...ALTHOUGH SBY AND PHF HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR REALLY LOW
CIGS/VIS. ORF IS A TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING...YESTERDAY THEY ALREADY
HAD A 400FT CIG BY THIS TIME...THIS MORNING THE VIS IS JUST BOUNCING
AROUND. BELIEVE THAT AT LEAST A LOW CIG WILL DVLP JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...BUT LOW VIS IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. AFTER 14-15Z...MOST
SITES WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDS...ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE
PLENTY OF CU OUT THERE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE TONIGHT WILL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FG/LOW CLOUD WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AND SIMILAR PATTERN.

-Skip

 

[tonycondon]

yea ive noticed a fair amount of stuff like that lately. i think id rather have the forecaster just say they arent sure than take a WAG and be wrong.

 

[Henning]

... making difficult forecasts.

This guy is more candid in his remarks than I have seen before.



-Skip

I like it, that's the kind of info I used to get when I'd walk into the FSS and talk to a briefer. I'd get probabilities and odds and hedges based on my route as well as alternate possibilities, real information.

 

[Sleek-Jet]

I like it, that's the kind of info I used to get when I'd walk into the FSS and talk to a briefer. I'd get probabilities and odds and hedges based on my route as well as alternate possibilities, real information.

Probably why it's formated that way... so the LM briefers can read it verbaitem and sound like the know what they are talking about...

 

[ScottM]

Probably why it's formated that way... so the LM briefers can read it verbaitem and sound like the know what they are talking about...

I am not sure all the LM briefers can even read. There have been a couple that I am not sure are able to even walk and chew gum at the same time.

BTW my last flight was completely sans FSS, went well even the flight plan filing.

 

[tonycondon]

you use DUATs scott? I really need to figure out how to use that...

 

[ScottM]

you use DUATs scott? I really need to figure out how to use that...

yes sir. With Golden Eagle. I love it!!! To file the FP I am using the interactive mode but it was real easier to do.

 

[Sleek-Jet]

I am not sure all the LM briefers can even read. There have been a couple that I am not sure are able to even walk and chew gum at the same time.

BTW my last flight was completely sans FSS, went well even the flight plan filing.

I haven't called FS in nearly 7 months, and I don't ever plan to ever call again either.

 

[etsisk]

I absolutely like that forecast - let's me know what he thinks, why he thinks it, why he might be wrong and his best guess what to expect!

A breath of fresh air!

 

[Richard]

SFO produces wx discussions like that. They read like a whodunit. This style of writing actually gives a glimpse of their thought process and what they're up against.


When the models don't agree or change too rapidly....

 

[gprellwitz]

Actually, this is not at all unusual, if you know where to look for it. For example, I just came up with this TECHNICAL DISCUSSION by clicking "Forecast Discussion" at the lower right of the NOAA forecast page. The "Non-Technical forecast discussion" this time didn't have anything particularly interesting, but I think that is what the original quote was.

Area Forecast DiscussionThis National Weather Service product is intended to provide a well-reasoned discussion of the meteorological thinking which went into the preparation of the Zone Forecast Product. The forecaster will try to focus on the most particular challenges of the forecast. The text will be written in plain language or in proper contractions. At the end of the discussion, there will be a list of all advisories, non-convective watches, and non-convective warnings. The term non-convective refers to weather that is not caused by thunderstorms. An intermediate Area Forecast Discussion will be issued when either significant forecast updates are being made or if interesting weather is expected to occur.

Think about it. "Well reasoned" from the government!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
300 PM CDT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FOCUS ON UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH HIGH MAX TEMPS AND
HIGH MIN TEMPS. OF A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL ALSO BE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

AS RELATED TO TEMPERATURES...ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN WITH BUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGING IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE VERY DEEP
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE EVEN CONVERGING ON A REASONABLY CONSISTENT SOLUTION
FOR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING CLOSER
TOGETHER TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
GFS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER. THE ECMWF/NAM SPLIT THE ENERGY
INTO TWO STREAMS WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND A STRONGER
SRN STREAM. THE GFS KEEPS MORE OF A SINGLE CUT OFF LOW WHICH SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. CONSIDERING
THE BETTER CONSISTENCY OF THE NAM/ECMWF...AND THAT THE GFS HAS HAD
QUITE A BIT OF TROUBLE HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NAM TREND FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN. BUT REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES...ALL INDICATORS ARE
POINTING TOWARD UNSEASONABLE WARMTH...BOTH FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.
WHILE HAVE NOT BROUGHT TEMPS TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR EITHER ORD OR
RFD...THE LOCAL RECORD CLIMATE SITES...STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS
REACHING OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 90F...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND 500MB HGTS WILL BE ARND 592DM. THE OTHER CONCERN...FOR
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE DENSE FOG...SINCE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-7KT WITH A WEAK...BUT PRESENT SELY PRESSURE
GRADIENT. ANOTHER FACTOR WORKING AGAINST DENSE FOG WILL BE CLOUD
COVER. WITH INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOOKING AT SCT-BKN AC/STRATOCU EXPECTED...AS WELL
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAVE BACKED OFF TO PATCHY
FOG IN DEFERENCE TO THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD BE
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES...THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR SHOULD BE SHUNTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. INTO THE LONGER TERM...HAVE REMAINED
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION. STILL THINK THAT THE GFS IS TOO SLOW IN KICKING OUT THE
UPPER LOW AND THUS KEEPING CONDITIONS TOO COOL FOR TOO LONG.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY
AS THE SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP BACK CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS...SEVERAL CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. FIRST...FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE BECOMING VRB AND CALM WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. GUIDANCE SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH MVFR VIS AND LOCAL
FOG PREDICTOR IS MARGINAL. IN ADDITION...RAPIDLY EXPANDING 6-8KFT
DECK ACROSS NORTHERN IL WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THRU SUNRISE. THEREFORE PREVAILING VIS
3-5SM WITH PATCHY 1-2SM AT THE USUAL LOWER SPOTS.

FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING AS WINDS TURN SSE AND INCREASE TO
10KTS OR SO. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT A BKN CU
FIELD TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. FLOW APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
A LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING ORD/MDW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NE IL. ALSO...MODELS CRANK OUT SOME LIGHT QPF DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS NNW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE 12Z TAFS TO SEE IF PRECIP NEEDS
TO BE INCLUDED...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY FROM MDW/GYY SOUTHEAST
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.

CU FIELD DISSIPATES WITH SUNSET LEAVING CIRRUS FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR
THAT WILL ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ALREADY MOIST LOW LEVELS.
LIKEWISE...WILL ALSO ADDRESS THIS IN MORE DETAIL WITH 12Z TAFS. CMS

&&

.MARINE...

150 PM CDT

PERIOD OF PROLONGED SOUTH FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKES NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AS AREA REMAINS BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG EAST
COAST AND TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR/MINNESOTA TO DROP ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HANGS UP AS WARM FRONT AND PUSHES BACK NORTH OF
THE LAKE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT WINDS MAINLY IN
10-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL
PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUES/WED NEXT WEEK.

RATZER

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL PUT SOME RECORDS
IN JEOPARDY. HERE ARE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS
AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS...

FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY MONDAY
10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8
CHICAGO
HIGH 88(1997) 94(1963) 86(1947) 88(1997)
LOW 69(2005) 70(1879) 66(1914) 68(1939)

ROCKFORD
HIGHS 90(1922) 90(1963) 88(1916) 88(1916)
LOWS 64(1955) 64(1990) 61(1997) 65(1949)

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.