Potential Fun Tomorrow

[tonycondon]

My CAF Wing is visiting, err, invading, the Heart of America Wing up in Kansas City tomorrow for their monthly meeting. I'm planning an 8:30 AM(14:30Z) departure so we can be there by 10.

GFS/MAV forecast is looking a little foggy for the 15Z forecast, although it seems like the really low stuff will be southeast of KC.

Ceiling:

Vis:

However, the NAM forecast shows a different story. Here is the ceiling at 15Z (no vis forecast in the NAM model):

Total crap between Wichita and KC. Another interesting point, the GFS/MAV forecast showed ceiling and vis clearing off by 18Z for our return, but the NAM doesnt show that significant of improvement. maybe a little but not a lot.

I"ll be interested to see what the TAFs say late tonight and tomorrow morning. This fog has been an issue the last few days down here but I haven't been paying very close attention to if it has been burning off according to forecast. I think that yesterday stayed crummy all day which was pretty much as forecast. I just find it interesting that there is such a difference between the two models. Decreases my confidence in either one of them, for this flight.

 

[steingar]

There is a 50% chance of your flying. The wx will either be good or it won't.

 

[tonycondon]

Actually, that is always correct...most of the time.

LOL

this is pretty typical weather for this time of year. warm air after big snow cover usually makes it foggy for a week or more. The best way to ensure that the fog will lift is to cancel the airplane and start driving in the morning.

 

[tonycondon]

hey it worked last time! after years of holding out and hoping fog would lift just to watch it sit around all day when it was forecast to lift by noon, i canceled some glider flying with Leah. no kidding, as soon as I hung up from talking to the towpilot, the sun started shining! waited half an hour and everything was breaking up so we called him back and went flying. i guess i faked Mother Nature out on that one.

 

[alindsay]

Interesting you bring this up...I've been watching the weather for a planned x-cntry from 3CK to KLNK - want to do a little Pheasant hunting.

Thanks to Scott's previous posts, I found these MOS forecasts. This thread helps confirm what I was gathering from the info.

Tony, I'm also hoping the fog clears mid morning - fingers are crossed.

Allan

PS I meant to add, I'm going VFR with a buddy in his Bonanza so I need it to be good VRF weather too

 

[tonycondon]

well the forecast for arrival pretty much sucks

KC International, a bit north of where I'm actually headed. We're planning on arriving about 1600Z:

KMCI 152330Z 1600/1624 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC005
TEMPO 1600/1604 1/2SM FZFG OVC002
FM160400 VRB02KT 1/4SM FZFG VV001
FM161600 17004KT 1/2SM FZFG OVC005
FM162000 18005KT 1SM BR OVC008

And KC Downtown, a bit closer to IXD:.

KMKC 152330Z 1600/1624 VRB03KT 3SM BR OVC008
TEMPO 1601/1605 1SM BR OVC005
FM160500 VRB02KT 1/2SM FZFG OVC004
FM161600 17004KT 1SM BR OVC005
FM162000 18005KT 2SM BR OVC008

A little better. The MAV MOS forecast is a little better and the GFS forecast is a little worse. Currently everything is socked in.

 

[tonycondon]

Well it looks like Leah and I will have a nice drive.

Home is currently:

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KAAO 161136Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG FEW001 OVC007 02/01 A3014 RMK AO2

and the forecast isn't really supposed to get reasonable until 1/2 hour after desired arrival in KC:

[/FONT]KICT 161126Z 1612/1712 VRB03KT 1/4SM FG VV002
FM161630 16004KT 3SM BR OVC006
FM161900 18005KT P6SM BKN015
FM170200 18005KT 4SM BR OVC015
FM170500 19004KT 1SM BR OVC006

KC is basically 0/0 now and isn't going to get much better for most of the day.

KMKC 161120Z 1612/1712 VRB02KT 2SM BR OVC002
TEMPO 1612/1615 1/2SM FZFG VV001
FM161800 17004KT 3SM BR OVC005
TEMPO 1702/1706 2SM BR OVC002
FM170600 VRB04KT 1SM BR OVC002

 

[AdamZ]

Can some one please xplain those charts to me or direct me to where I can get the ' why it is so explaination'

 

[AdamZ]

I guess Scott my confusion really lies between the two charts. The MAV MOS and the MET MOS. For example the ceiling charts appear very different ( at least to me) for the same time period. Central OK for example looks ok in the MET chart but socked in on the MAV chart.

I suppose you could have some dense fog in an area that is Fcast that is also Fcast to mix out rather quickly but my guess is that these types of charts don't address that sort of thing.

 

[AdamZ]

Scott it would appear though that the MET MOS was more accurate for the area I discribed that being central OK.

Is one model known to have greater accuracy? I guess thats a loaded question as what ever model you use is going to be greatly impacted by the forcaster.

 

[wabower]

It's good that Tony is taking a car. If it's like most CAF groups, he and Leah are probably the only ones who can drive at night.

 

[tonycondon]

by the time we got to New Century we had picked up about 1/4" of clear ice on the antenna on the truck and had to detour off from I-35 for a massive wreck. Vis was somewhere between 100-200 yards and 1 mile for the duration of the drive.

we had a blast visiting the Heart of America Wing. Vis sorta lifted a little after noon but it was never really good. Drove in fog back down I-35. 5 hours later they still had the same section closed due to the wreck. must've been a mess. Somewhere between Emporia and Wichita we drove out the side of the fog. clear skies. sun. wonderful.

 

[akite]

We faked out our fog today. We worked hard to finish up the annual on our tow plane and pulled the Blaik in the hangar to defrost the massive frost left by the continuous fog for the past two days. Then the sun broke through, we got four training flights in with a new solo student that was able to do two flights on his own before sunset. It was a balmy 16 degrees! That is two new solo students for our club, not too shabby for Northern Utah!