Pilot shortage?

DocDerz

Filing Flight Plan
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Jul 14, 2015
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DocDerz
OK, so, this is a pretty polarizing topic. I'm a contributor to Disciples of Flight, and recently, one of our other contributors did a piece on this topic as it relates to airline pilots, which she then followed up with a second piece further exploring the relationship between pilots and the airlines.

And the result has been pretty impressive. A lot of people have something to say, and it's usually very definitive. Not a lot of fence sitting. But after seeing the reaction, and then reading back through some previous pieces on the pilot shortage from AOPA, Aviation Week and others, I keep seeing one very common thread: is there actually a pilot shortage?

"There is!"
"No there isn't!"
"Here's a statistic showing there is!"
"Here's one showing there isn't!"

And so on. Now, I've seen statistics that show a decline in both the airline pilot and general aviation, or private pilot ranks. But does that point to a shortage, or is that more a of a natural decline, and will it stabilize over time? And if it is a decline, will there still be a large enough pool of pilots?

Also, does anybody have a good theory on why the steady decline in pilot numbers over the year? I see "money" cited most commonly, but by itself, is that a big enough barrier to entry?
 
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