Oshkosh Accident today?

jfrye01 said:
Not to derail the thread, but I was at OSH yesterday, saw on the news a plane crashed in a corn field...looked like an RV, bent up pretty bad...never heard anything else about it...
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That was a botched landing, according to the news. Guy was landing on a grass strip and something went wrong.
 
Jay Honeck said:
What makes (and keeps) OSH safe is the NOTAM'd procedures. I've been to little pancake fly-ins that were much scarier, simply because people were free-lancing everything.
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Its not that OSH is unsafe it is just that if you operate little airplanes at that volume some of them are bound to crash. Same as Sturgis, Daytona, or Americade.
 
vince said:
It does. Give me a year. Any year. And I will produce deaths for you. This is anywhere going to or coming from Osh. A fiery death in front of adoring spectators at Oshkosh itself? No... But people die going there and coming from. Every year.
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I'll try 1964 for $500 Alex. Yes, I was there at Rockford.
 
"A ship in the harbor is safe - but that is not what ships are built for."

John A. Shedd
 
vince said:
No they wouldn't have been flying this distance necessarily.



Don't tell me Oshkosh is more safe than the other kind of flying we do usually. I flew the approach and did the departure. There were an awful number of planes out there. Lots of planes in a confined area. And there was definitely also more traffic out there hundreds of miles away. It was a lot more busy than usual.
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Then the highest cause of accidents in your fact scenario should be mid-air collisions, yet miraculously, that doesn't happen. ATC and the Fisk Approach seem to be doing something right.

Yes, saturation is certainly an issue coming into OSH. I work flightline ops every day at AirVenture, and I am listening on 118.5 and hear exactly what is happening between ATC and the pilots. Velocities overtaking Bonanzas. Pilots afraid to touch the grass, endangering landing or departing traffic behind them. Pilots being told "check gear down" when flying over the quarry. Warbirds coming in from Warbirds Island, mixing with landing RVs, and business jets arriving on the RNAV approach to 27. I haven't seen it all, but I've seen a lot.

Personally, I live 58nm south of OSH. Unless I'm at AirVenture, I stay on the ground during that time. There is a LOT of traffic going over my house. My CFII was a 10,000 hour retired AA MD-80 captain, flew into OSH once using Fisk, and vowed to never do it again, because of what he called "flying formation with amateurs."

Still, when I work on Flightline Ops and see the thousands of pilots landing in front of me over the week, I tell myself "I CAN DO THIS TOO." I want to bring another pilot with me, but I hope to do it next year, at least for the day. (I'm considering renting a camper for the week otherwise.)
 
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Jay Honeck said:
What makes (and keeps) OSH safe is the NOTAM'd procedures. I've been to little pancake fly-ins that were much scarier, simply because people were free-lancing everything.
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I've flown to a dozen "pancake breakfasts" or "brat lunches" and feel the same way.
 
I read that this was Breezy's 50th anniversary with 13 showing up at Osh.
 
Breezies have well known bad behavior in slow tight turns.
 
ClimbnSink said:
If you count to and from around the country it certainly is true. Direct Osh vicinity dunno. That many flights/hours and someone has to die. The big motorcycle rallies are the same, someone ain't going home alive. Just the way it is.
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We could count on nearly 10 deaths each year from Biketoberfest and Bike Week. Those guys were mostly morons.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
Someone dies in a plane crash at Osh every year. It's par for the course.
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Well, no. I ran a search on the online NTSB database for fatal accidents in Oshkosh. From January 1 1980 to December 31st 2012 there were 22. However, three did not occur during the Fly-In period. So that's 19 accidents in 34 years.

Moreover, there's a curious grouping of accidents... only ten of those 34 years actually saw a fatal:

Year - # Fatal Accidents
1982 - 2
1983 - 2
1988 - 1
1990 - 2
1992 - 3
1998 - 1
2001 - 2
2006 - 3
2007 - 2
2008 - 1

Years not listed did not have a fatal.

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
Well, no. I ran a search on the online NTSB database for fatal accidents in Oshkosh. From January 1 1980 to December 31st 2012 there were 22. However, three did not occur during the Fly-In period. So that's 19 accidents in 34 years.

Moreover, there's a curious grouping of accidents... only ten of those 34 years actually saw a fatal:

Year - # Fatal Accidents
1982 - 2
1983 - 2
1988 - 1
1990 - 2
1992 - 3
1998 - 1
2001 - 2
2006 - 3
2007 - 2
2008 - 1

Years not listed did not have a fatal.

Ron Wanttaja
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Ron,

Since you're the accident statistics guru, any chance you can easily (don't go to too much trouble) find the number of accidents (fatal and non-fatal) for folks flying to and from Oshkosh each year? That way Ted can have something firm to back pedal on.
 
I can think of at least one not listed here - Cub going into the lake while turning final for 27 or whichever one it is there. That was in 2011 IIRC +-1 year
 
moonshine said:
I can think of at least one not listed here - Cub going into the lake while turning final for 27 or whichever one it is there. That was in 2011 IIRC +-1 year
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I sorted on "Oshkosh" as the accident location. That case was listed as near Van Dyne Wis.

Edit: And on that one, I will just say: Ick.

"...An autopsy finding listed “multiple cysts to white matter of cerebral hemispheres of brain, consistent with Cysticercosis” and that no larvae were found during a microscopic examination.

"The Center for Disease Control and Prevention states, “Cysticercosis is a parasitic tissue infection caused by larval cysts of the pork tapeworm. These larval cysts infect brain, muscle, or other tissue, and are a major cause of adult onset seizures in most low-income countries. An individual acquires Cysticercosis from ingesting eggs excreted by a person who has an intestinal tapeworm. “

Ron Wanttaja
 
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Anymouse said:
Ron,

Since you're the accident statistics guru, any chance you can easily (don't go to too much trouble) find the number of accidents (fatal and non-fatal) for folks flying to and from Oshkosh each year? That way Ted can have something firm to back pedal on.
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I'll try...the problem is, the NTSB changed its format several times and the same search filters don't work across the whole span of years. I thought I had a good PDF to post, until I realized that it didn't list anything after 2009.

I'm using "Oshkosh", "EAA", and "Airventure" as filter elements, and manually eliminating those accidents that aren't related to the fly-in.

The other problem, of course, is that there's nothing to require NTSB investigators list where the plane's ultimate destination or start point is. A plane may crash between Bismarck and Butte, but the NTSB investigator doesn't have to mention that it started two weeks earlier in Oshkosh.

The 1982-2009 set I got to work has about 30 accidents. I'll see what's the hold-up on getting the whole time span to come out. I'll run a combined summary of the at-Osh accidents and the to/from Osh ones.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Jay Honeck said:
Counting people flying to/from OSH is absurd. Those people would have been flying somewhere else, and gone down just as surely.

I've been here 32 times, I'm here right now, and can count fatalities at the show on one hand. It is a very safe event.

I will bet a nickel that there are more fatalities in the Camp Scholler crowd, driving to/from OSH.
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The number of non-flying attendees is about 10 times the number of fly-ins. Flying is about 10 times more dangerous (on a per 100,000 hour basis) than driving. So a theory stating that the fatalities among fly-in and non-fly-in guests are probably about equal has some backing. But aviating is still vastly more risky than driving.
 
Flying to Oshkosh was definitely the most high risk flying I have done so far this year and I loved every second of it and will do it again next year. Who wants to live forever anyway?
 
vince said:
Flying to Oshkosh was definitely the most high risk flying I have done so far this year and I loved every second of it and will do it again next year.
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Well... I bet the only "high risk" portion was that within ~25 miles of Wittman Field. Everything else should have been just "ordinary" flying risk.
vince said:
Who wants to live forever anyway?
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To quote Joseph Heller, I intend to live forever or die trying....

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
Well... I bet the only "high risk" portion was that within ~25 miles of Wittman Field. Everything else should have been just "ordinary" flying risk.
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True, but I've seen people push weather, fuel, and W&B for Osh specifically. All of those contribute to higher risk en route. I'd bet you see more people do it for Osh specifically vs "ordinary" flying.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
True, but I've seen people push weather, fuel, and W&B for Osh specifically. All of those contribute to higher risk en route. I'd bet you see more people do it for Osh specifically vs "ordinary" flying.
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And when you have a deadline for when you want to be somewhere, that can definitely increase the risk.
 
Palmpilot said:
And when you have a deadline for when you want to be somewhere, that can definitely increase the risk.
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...and for some aircraft, the pilgrimage to Oshkosh is one of the longest or even the only serious cross country of the year. Think Pietenpol or Breezy (completely independent of this year's accident).

No data to demonstrate that results in more accidents but it likely increases risk.
 
rwellner98 said:
But aviating is still vastly more risky than driving.
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Ron, is this remark accurate? Seems I know more people that have died in crashes than car wrecks but ...... maybe that's my answer right there? :confused:
 
flyingriki said:
Ron, is this remark accurate? Seems I know more people that have died in crashes than car wrecks but ...... maybe that's my answer right there? :confused:
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Not my zone of expertise, but: I've heard the fatality rate per 100,000 miles is about four times higher for GA than for driving. Except for motorcycles...these have about the same rate as GA.

GA is never going to get its accident rate as low as driving, given the current US automobile infrastructure and driver behavior (I'm referring to the fact that MOST drivers, for instance, stop at red lights). Flying requires a better sense of judgement (weather, etc.) and the consequences of minor problems is more severe (mechanical failures, running out of fuel, etc.).

The difference of course, is that pilots are the masters of their fates. All but very few accidents depend solely on the actions of one pilot or the condition of one plane.

You can fly from Seattle to Oshkosh and arrive safely if you ensure the plane is in good shape, get proper training, and make the right decisions on the way. You can drive from Seattle to Oshkosh with a car in good shape and skills at the max, but you're STILL vulnerable to the actions of the thousands of other drivers and cars you'll pass along the way.

Pilots are ever-vunerable to the "golden B-B", but drivers have to contend with thousands of rusty pickups with "Bubba" painted on the tailgate and empty beer cans rolling around in the bed.

Metaphorically speaking, of course.... but I'd rather risk the B-B than Bubba.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Well said, Ron. At least if I die in a plane crash, it was probably my own fault.
 
I'm pretty sure that it was 2005 when a C182 flew into a power windmill enroute to Oshkosh, not too far away.
 
wanttaja said:
I sorted on "Oshkosh" as the accident location. That case was listed as near Van Dyne Wis.

Edit: And on that one, I will just say: Ick.

"...An autopsy finding listed “multiple cysts to white matter of cerebral hemispheres of brain, consistent with Cysticercosis” and that no larvae were found during a microscopic examination.

"The Center for Disease Control and Prevention states, “Cysticercosis is a parasitic tissue infection caused by larval cysts of the pork tapeworm. These larval cysts infect brain, muscle, or other tissue, and are a major cause of adult onset seizures in most low-income countries. An individual acquires Cysticercosis from ingesting eggs excreted by a person who has an intestinal tapeworm. “

Ron Wanttaja
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I think one just got added to the "enroute to OSH" column.
 
RotorAndWing said:
I think one just got added to the "enroute to OSH" column.
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:rofl:

This is exactly what I was talking about. Not counting accidents to and from OSH is stupid. The pressure of arriving in that area and dealing with the traffic greatly increases your opportunities to get into an accident. Especially if you are stale like Henning was. He probably hadn't flown in months before this trip.
 
I flew in the Air Venture Cup race and then into the show. My wife was calling out traffic the whole way in. It was amazing how many people just decided to not fly above the railroad tracks. I didn't find it that hard but the 10 or so planes in front of me and to the right sure did. We were able to maintain proper spacing with the planes in front of us and they gave us runway 27 despite a pretty significant crosswind. I gave it my best college try but the crosswind was just too much for my LSA, and we went around to transition to 36R. It was funny, I got on the ground and a guy I knew in a RV-7 landed right behind me and told me how funky it was landing on 36R with the winds. I guess they were really shifting around quite a bit. It was very exciting to fly in. This was my 4th time flying to Oshkosh and second time landing at OSH. My wife said right away she was up for doing it again and this was her first trip. She really enjoyed the air race too.

When it came time to leave I took off on 36L and made a quick hop over to see John the FBO manager at Portage and top the gas off. John is one of the nicest guys you will meet. The winds were pretty calm there and mostly just a really calm crosswind. Portage is a bit short and has power lines at one end. This clearly favors an approach from the end without the power lines on final :) The two planes in front of me had that same idea. I made radio calls the whole way in and only heard the two guys in front of me landing. As I am on short final, poof, out of nowhere this guy is on short final landing the other direction with no radio calls at all. I guess he could have been NORDO.. He looked to be some sort of Cessna. He breaks left, I break right and make the go around call. John said he was looking to see what was going on and suspected the guy had the wrong freq in. In any case, that guy never came back to land. It just shows you have to be ready for anything to happen to and from OSH and it could be more dangerous in the local area and not even at OSH. Shortly after I landed several planes diverted in as a result of the closed field for the crash. It was sad as we didn't know exactly what had happened but knew it was bad.

Bottom line, I will be going back again next year and plan to fly in. I always watch the EAA webinar on flying in and read the NOTAM several times before flying in and out. It really is well organized considering how many planes are in such as small bit of airspace.

Carl
 
Twice flown in, different runways each time, exceptional ATC requests both times, managed to accomodate both times. Can't wait to go back!

Yes there are a lot of slow, clueless idiots in the pattern. But you'll find them anywhere a huge bunch of planes fly anywhere. Just listen to the posts on this forum, you'll hear a lot of them....
 
I witnessed a fatal at Oshkosh long before I became a pilot.

A Falco "The Ferrari of the Air" - part of a demo team - did an inverted flat spin,
..."And he'll pull out
....he'll pull out...
...
...FOLKS, please stay clear of the runway area to allow access for the emergency equipment."

I had been behind that guy at the ice cream line just an hour before.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
True, but I've seen people push weather, fuel, and W&B for Osh specifically. All of those contribute to higher risk en route. I'd bet you see more people do it for Osh specifically vs "ordinary" flying.
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That's a very good point, one I hadn't considered. However, it would seem that the "pressure's off" on the return, and that the return flights shouldn't count against the Oshkosh toll. No greater risk on the return than any other GA cross-country.

Bill Watson's point is a good one, though, the draw of Oshkosh might tend to attract pilots whose long-distance skills aren't up to the challenge.

Ron Wanttaja
 
wanttaja said:
I'll try...the problem is, the NTSB changed its format several times and the same search filters don't work across the whole span of years. I thought I had a good PDF to post, until I realized that it didn't list anything after 2009.
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OK...got that one whipped. Attached is a summary of both fatal accidents at Oshkosh, and fatals where the NTSB report states the plane was going to or coming from the Fly-In. Dates are constrained to the fly-in period. Total was 66 fatal accidents from 1982 through 2013. This includes all types of airplanes, certified and experimental. A total of 110 lives were lost. Most years saw an Oshkosh-related accident *somewhere*.

To find the ones going to or from OSH, I searched the Narratives (plural, because that was the problem mentioned above) for "Oshkosh", "OSH ", "EAA", and "Airventure" (threw that one in for Jim W.). Cases were manually checked to throw out ones that didn't apply (crash in the Oshkosh mountain in Oregon, EAA Biplane crash during initial test flight, etc.).

Ron Wanttaja
 

Attachments

  • Oshkosh-Related Fatal Accidents 1982-2013.pdf
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wanttaja said:
That's a very good point, one I hadn't considered. However, it would seem that the "pressure's off" on the return, and that the return flights shouldn't count against the Oshkosh toll. No greater risk on the return than any other GA cross-country.

Bill Watson's point is a good one, though, the draw of Oshkosh might tend to attract pilots whose long-distance skills aren't up to the challenge.

Ron Wanttaja
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Don't forget about the people that load up on stuff and try to take it in their already overloaded airplane.
 
wanttaja said:
That's a very good point, one I hadn't considered. However, it would seem that the "pressure's off" on the return, and that the return flights shouldn't count against the Oshkosh toll. No greater risk on the return than any other GA cross-country.

Ron Wanttaja
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The return trip thing makes sense but I have to admit that I was under more 'pressure' on the ad hoc return than the well planned trip to Osh. After packing the tents, packing the plane and planning the downwind dash home, the delay due to the accident caused much churn than one might expect. In the end we all knew we weren't unpacking the tent and returning to the porta-johns no matter how well maintained. We all desparately wanted to be home and that created a great deal of pressure to at least depart the area to land somewhere closer to home.

I'm thinking that there are more than a few versions of that story in the big city and I'd vote for including the return trips in the stats if there were such a vote. Everything out of the ordinary can generate 'pressure'.
 
Anymouse said:
Don't forget about the people that load up on stuff and try to take it in their already overloaded airplane.
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I would of bought 4 cases of oil at the $55 price, about 25 lbs a case. I wanted some margin with 3 on board & 1/2 fuel, so I limited myself to 2 cases. The new Aircraft Spruce catalog felt like 2 lbs too, then the other odds & ends.
 
wanttaja said:
That's a very good point, one I hadn't considered. However, it would seem that the "pressure's off" on the return, and that the return flights shouldn't count against the Oshkosh toll. No greater risk on the return than any other GA cross-country.

Bill Watson's point is a good one, though, the draw of Oshkosh might tend to attract pilots whose long-distance skills aren't up to the challenge.

Ron Wanttaja
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I think the return flights do count. I need to be home to work/family on a predictable schedule. Which meant that Thursday's delay put me 3 hours behind the "weather window" I'd identified for making an easy flight. The 3 hour delay caused the en-route weather to deteriorate from "Great" to "OK". Another 30 minutes and I might have needed to overnight somewhere or push hard to get home in worsening weather.
 
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