NexGen vs GAO - Deconstruction of the quotes...

[denverpilot]

From this article:

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/GAO_FAABehindScheduleOverBudgetOnNextGen_206198-1.html

The FAA needs to improve its management practices to ensure that the NextGen air traffic system is implemented without further cost overruns and delays, the Government Accountability Office said in a report released this week. The GAO reviewed 30 major programs involved in NextGen and found that half of them were behind schedule and costs had increased from initial estimates by a total of $4.2 billion. The delays ranged from two months to more than 14 years behind schedule, and averaged four years.

Okay, stating the facts GAO found... nothing to argue there...

The FAA didn't comment on whether or not it agreed with the GAO analysis, the GAO said, but the FAA did send a statement to AVweb. "The GAO report includes air traffic programs that are not part of the NextGen portfolio," FAA Public Affairs wrote in an email. "However, from 2004 - 2011, the FAA was 0.8 percent under budget across all major system acquisitions."

My take... "These aren't the droids you're looking for. (hand wave...)"

Or... more to the point...

We stole budget from EVERYTHING else to pay for NexGen, and we were really careful to keep our overall expenditures just less than 1% below our overall budget so we could give out this quote if anyone ever noticed how screwed up NexGen is. We claim NexGen *is* an Air Traffic system, but don't count any of the Air Traffic system upgrades or other items required for NexGen in the NexGen budget. Aren't we cute? Look, over here! Watch my right hand, don't look at my left!

"The GAO report cited four ongoing challenges that it says have led to cost increases and schedule delays: (1) additional or unanticipated system requirements, (2) insufficient stakeholder involvement (such as controllers' input) throughout system development, (3) underestimating the complexity of software development, and (4) unanticipated events including funding shortfalls or work stoppages. "These challenges, if they persist, will impede the implementation of NextGen," said the GAO. To do a better job estimating the cost and completion dates for major acquisitions, the report said, the FAA should require cost and schedule risk analysis, independent cost estimates and integrated master schedules. In its statement to AVweb, the FAA said it has already adopted a majority of the GAO's cost estimation best practices, "and looks forward to reviewing the GAO's recently released scheduling best practices."

Lets see... if we use their numbers and re-word...

(1) we design and implement the system, but we somehow conveniently missed all sorts of stuff it will need in the form of "unanticipated" requirements?

(2) We're so disjointed and huge we forgot to ask the controllers what they'd need to do their jobs in a NexGen world.

(3) We haven't got a clue how to scope software or keep it within a budget and timeline.

(4) And we'll throw any Union or anyone else involved under this bus if they get in our way.

But... NexGen won't make it if we can't get these "challenges" created by self-ineptitude out of the way.

It's not our fault, it's the CHALLENGES fault! Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket. It's the challenges fault!

That final part is the best... translated...

In order to prepare a proper budget in the future, we'll need at least 100 Microsoft Project specialists to create a bunch more reports. We might even consider doing our budgeting and accounting for the project using the same rules as the Government ACCOUNTING Office... but you know, we never thought of that on our own prior to your news agency calling us.

We "look forward to reviewing" how those silly accountants do this stuff. We couldn't be bothered with that up until now... we're the FAA! We have stuff to do!

NexGen, Ho! Thundercats, Ho!

 

[wsuffa]

One of the biggest government IT systems design/integration failures was the FAA's AAS. Compared to that, NextGen looks stellar.

'Course they could just privatize it & let some commercial entity do it (like several states are with toll roads - see Virginia HOT lanes). Decisions, decisions....

 

[denverpilot]

Oh lord. Privatized NexGen. You just gave me shivers.

Maybe utter ineptitude trumps corruption in bid processes and kickbacks for Senators, after all.