KVLL - KMIE, Sunday Jan. 21 at 1500Z

azure

azure

Final Approach
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Messages
8,293
Location
Varmint Country
Display Name
Display name:
azure
KVLL - KMIE, Sunday Jan. 20 at 1500Z

The forecast soundings show a shallow saturated layer capped by an inversion with temperatures at the tops anywhere from -15C to -10C. A strong cold front is coming through right now. The TAFs along the route forecast low VFR and high MVFR BKN-OVC ceilings with -SHSN. I read the soundings as suggesting a stratocumulus layer and don't find the snow showers very comforting since there could still be a lot of supercooled water near the tops. I'm planning to do this trip VFR because of this, even though I'd rather be IFR on a longer jaunt like this.

Thoughts?
 

Attachments

  • skewt.22133.gif
    skewt.22133.gif
    29.2 KB · Views: 24
Last edited:
That's moving through pretty quickly, but if you were up in that you would get ice just below the tops and the surface is too cold to really have an out.
 
I think I'll be doing the flight following thing if I'm VFR -- I'm pretty sure that somebody can see me at 3000 all the way.

If by some chance the stratocu deck doesn't materialize by launch time, I'll file IFR (and be spring loaded to ask for lower or cancel and duck under).

The TAFs for western MI are already several hours too fast in bringing in the lower clouds. Not sure what is happening there.

Edit: oh, it's just the colder air is taking its time moving in. Okay, we'll see what happens in the morning.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top