Is General Aviation Dying in the USA?

Jay Honeck said:
That's the initial technical problem.

The societal problem of tort reform may well prove to be a tougher nut to crack. Quad copters are loud, make a mess of everything with down wash, and you just know that some Gomer will land one on a baby carriage.
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And isn't permission from the property owner required to land one on private property? I'm wondering how Amazon will determined whether the person placing the order has the property owner's permission.
 
Palmpilot said:
And isn't permission from the property owner required to land one on private property? I'm wondering how Amazon will determined whether the person placing the order has the property owner's permission.
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You'll click an "I Agree" box, or your order cancels, simple as that; no different than being forced to accept any other terms.
 
Henning said:
You'll click an "I Agree" box, or your order cancels, simple as that; no different than being forced to accept any other terms.
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How do they know the person clicking the box has permission from the property owner? My prediction is that tenants would click the box with or without the property owner's permission.
 
The entire Amazon drone thing is so fraught with problems and impracticalities that either the company will come to it's senses and quietly allow the boss's crazy idea to die, or they will bankrupt the company trying.
 
Dav8or said:
The entire Amazon drone thing is so fraught with problems and impracticalities that either the company will come to it's senses and quietly allow the boss's crazy idea to die, or they will bankrupt the company trying.
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It's a marketing stunt. If Amazon was serious about it, they'd be pouring a HUGE amount of capital into it and not talking about it to keep from tipping off competitors.

Instead, they're spending a tiny amount on supposed R&D for the project and getting a gigantic return in the form of free publicity from virtually every news outlet in the world. It's a brilliant and very cost-effective marketing plan. But it's not going to result in any real-world drone delivery products, at least not until — like you say — they invest enough in it to risk bankrupting the company. Amazon isn't doing that right now, and I don't think they ever will.
 
Dav8or said:
Agreed. Flight training is thriving in the SF Bay Area. Nearly all of it aspiring airline pilots, both foreign and domestic. The vast majority once they go back home, or finally get the job at the regionals, will never set foot in a piston single ever again.
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How do they afford to live in the SF Bay Area on an aspiring airline pilot's budget where rents are about double the national average wage and people pull stunts like this?

http://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/man-lists-tent-backyard-airbnb-899-month/story?id=32136361
 
Palmpilot said:
What is your source for that information?
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Me. Listen to the radio. Check in at the flight school. Watch who gets out of the school planes at the gas pumps. Not a lot of 40+ somethings that "Always wanted to fly". Lots of young kids that have their eyes on the perceived prize.
 
1RTK1 said:
They go to places like the old castle air force base and live in old dorm style rooms. Most all of the students there are young Chinese, or at least 99% of the ones I have seen..
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Yeah, China wants to develop a GA infrastructure as well as air carrier, because they saw how it worked in the U.S. in natural disasters like Earthquakes, and how they lacked that ability in the big quake. Remember, they own Cirrus and TCM (the SR-22 with a TD-350 would be one very capable airplane that would run on simple fuel, could even extend the cabin and increase payload), and I've heard conflicting things on the level of PRC involvement in the procurement of Mooney.
 
Henning said:
Yeah, China wants to develop a GA infrastructure as well as air carrier, because they saw how it worked in the U.S. in natural disasters like Earthquakes, and how they lacked that ability in the big quake. Remember, they own Cirrus and TCM (the SR-22 with a TD-350 would be one very capable airplane that would run on simple fuel, could even extend the cabin and increase payload), and I've heard conflicting things on the level of PRC involvement in the procurement of Mooney.
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So GA is more than just a plaything of the rich? Who'd have thunk it! ;)
 
Henning said:
...and I've heard conflicting things on the level of PRC involvement in the procurement of Mooney.
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A front corporation was set up in California to purchase Mooney. All the money came from China. It is impossible to know the root source of the money, but likely the Chinese government is involved. Chinese corporations and Chinese government seem to go hand in hand over there.
 
Dav8or said:
A front corporation was set up in California to purchase Mooney. All the money came from China. It is impossible to know the root source of the money, but likely the Chinese government is involved. Chinese corporations and Chinese government seem to go hand in hand over there.
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We have never done anything like that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars

Lots of similarities to today's society.
 
Dav8or said:
This is so true, however, the difference seems to be that here, the corporations tell the government what to do and over there, the government tells the corporations what to do. A distinction, but I guess the net result about the same.
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In China the relationship is overt. Here, it's much more subtle and covert.

I didn't even believe it existed here, until the government in Iowa built a hotel I had to compete against. Then, I woke up to how corrupt and rife with "crony capitalism" America has become.
 
Dav8or said:
A front corporation was set up in California to purchase Mooney. All the money came from China. It is impossible to know the root source of the money, but likely the Chinese government is involved. Chinese corporations and Chinese government seem to go hand in hand over there.
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So you dont believe the story about the enterpreneur who saw the inherent value in this company and used his hard earned own money to buy it :wink2:
 
Henning said:
Yeah, China wants to develop a GA infrastructure as well as air carrier, because they saw how it worked in the U.S. in natural disasters like Earthquakes, and how they lacked that ability in the big quake. Remember, they own Cirrus and TCM (the SR-22 with a TD-350 would be one very capable airplane that would run on simple fuel, could even extend the cabin and increase payload), and I've heard conflicting things on the level of PRC involvement in the procurement of Mooney.
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What is the expected impact to TCM and American operators of said engines by function of this Chinese ownership? Are materials and manufacturing quality expected to decrease further?

Same goes for Cirrus? Any unintended consequences of having American labor controlled by Chinese overlords? Are profits being properly taxed domestically, or are the Chinese funneling the lion's share of the profits back to their mainland?

To me, all this foreign ownership in our already declining manufacturing sectors, is incredibly troubling.
 
To me, all this foreign ownership in our already declining manufacturing sectors, is incredibly troubling.
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I think it was Lee Iakoka (sp??) who said something like "We can't build a great country by taking in each other's laundry." I think his point was a service based economy can only go so far. Somebody has to make something.
 
somorris said:
I think it was Lee Iakoka (sp??) who said something like "We can't build a great country by taking in each other's laundry." I think his point was a service based economy can only go so far. Somebody has to make something.
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At least we're doing a good job making software as a country.
 
somorris said:
I think it was Lee Iakoka (sp??) who said something like "We can't build a great country by taking in each other's laundry." I think his point was a service based economy can only go so far. Somebody has to make something.
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Why not? If manufacturing is cheaper abroad and services in the US are of a higher quality such that they can command a price premium (they are), then this is just being economically efficient, pareto maximum and all that.
 
hindsight2020 said:
What is the expected impact to TCM and American operators of said engines by function of this Chinese ownership? Are materials and manufacturing quality expected to decrease further?

Same goes for Cirrus? Any unintended consequences of having American labor controlled by Chinese overlords? Are profits being properly taxed domestically, or are the Chinese funneling the lion's share of the profits back to their mainland?

To me, all this foreign ownership in our already declining manufacturing sectors, is incredibly troubling.
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It's my understanding that the FAA has some airworthiness considerations wrt imported parts, no? Pretty much the same as for a US-made part.
 
frcabot said:
Why not? If manufacturing is cheaper abroad and services in the US are of a higher quality such that they can command a price premium (they are), then this is just being economically efficient, pareto maximum and all that.
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What about the balance of payments? How do you export services?
 
1RTK1 said:
They go to places like the old castle air force base and live in old dorm style rooms. Most all of the students there are young Chinese, or at least 99% of the ones I have seen..
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I don't think the students at Palo Alto Airport are living at Castle. They're more likely to be making good money at Google than trying for airline careers, IMO.
 
Palmpilot said:
I don't think the students at Palo Alto Airport are living at Castle. They're more likely to be making good money at Google than trying for airline careers, IMO.
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Palo Alto airport is located smack dab in the middle of the Bay Area tech bubble. What happens there is not even close to representing what goes on in the rest of California, much less the rest of the country. It's tough for people there to see and understand that from inside the bubble.

You are correct though, at Palo Alto there are a lot of people getting their tickets and buying airplanes just for fun. Corresponding to the higher demand and fatter wallets, the rates are high there and people seeking the left seat in an airliner are better served elsewhere.
 
frcabot said:
Why not? If manufacturing is cheaper abroad and services in the US are of a higher quality such that they can command a price premium (they are), then this is just being economically efficient, pareto maximum and all that.
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This kind of theory is as weak as trickle down economics. It doesn't work that way at all. Most service jobs don't pay diddly. The guy that owns the business that provides the service might make good money, but the guy who actually provides the service, doesn't make diddly in most cases.

I'm no economist (who are actually just high paid witch doctors/weather forecasters than anything else), but if you look at the percentage of GDP that manufacturing used to account for in say the '70s, then look at the percentage now, then compare the median income for Americans then and now, then look at the unemployment and under employment figures today and it sort of paints a picture of what really happened.

Good paying jobs got turned in to crappy paying jobs, or no jobs at all. How can this be when the want ads are full of positions for high paying tech jobs and the like and many of these companies are having to import talent from overseas?? It's happening because the "retooling of America" isn't working.

Bottom line is, in any society anywhere in the world, not just America, a certain percentage of the population is just not cut out to be brain power. They are better suited to muscle power. 40 years ago we had a pretty good ratio going on and we did well as a whole, but our pursuit of higher corporate profits, new technology and the consumers thirst for everyday low prices has lead to our decline and a huge rift in wealth.

I don't have any great answer to this problem as it's a tough nut to crack, but one thing is for sure, the service sector can not take up the slack left from the decline of the manufacturing sector.
 
old cfi said:
This doesn't help: http://www.floridatoday.com/story/m...announced-piper-aircraft-vero-beach/30185091/
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This seems like GA as usual to me. Since I started my involvement in GA back in 1998, the industry has been boom and bust all the time. It seems that you either read the "Xxxxxx airplane company is hiring 100 new employees", or "Xxxxx airplane company is scheduled to lay off 100 employees". Airplane sales are very fickle it seems.

As to Piper specifically, they just never had enough money to do anything new. Their Malibu based planes are the only thing of real profit for them. The trainer market is becoming competitive and they haven't been able to bring the cost down on the old PA-28 derived planes from the 50s and 60s. They are less and less competitive.

Their decline is actually really predictable. All new airplanes are just too expensive for small companies to create and bring to market. These days you either need large corporate sponsorship, government sponsorship, or one hell of a sales/pitch man. Piper has none of these.
 
Dav8or said:
This is so true, however, the difference seems to be that here, the corporations tell the government what to do and over there, the government tells the corporations what to do. A distinction, but I guess the net result about the same.
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A very important distinction, and remember, the government is still Communist. The net result depends on what people will choose, and how the leaders lead. That goes for anywhere, everywhere, and everyone.

When the progress of money is put before the progress of mankind, all mankind, that is when mankind suffers, plain and simple. The majority of humanity lives in a state of suffering because of the choices we as a society make, and the leaders we choose to follow.
 
The service economy pitch has been the greatest bait and switch imparted on the American proletariat in post WWII history, second only to globalization as a net positive for the median American. Hearing about increasing jobs on the part of politicians and nobody wanting to tackle the salary ranges and benefits of said jobs, is like a constant nails on chalkboard to me. It's so disingenuous it's hard to take anyone who speaks categorically on the domestic economic policy from a national microphone seriously. Nobody has the political will to admit it's a complete generational downgrade in income and expectations, and our collective standards of living, when adjusted for personal debt levels, reflect that outcome so brightly you could see it from Pluto.

The re-tooling of america could happen effectively, but it will require governmental education/training eugenics because private industry has no interest in sticking their necks out when they bask in the aggregate national labor surplus we suffer from currently. Additionally, re-tooling our economy to take back export industries would renege on trade behavior we've allowed other super powers the freedom to exercise, and that would not bode well for us since we have so much foreign owned debt to said players. So, it's easier to default on our own populations, while acquiescing to the monied minorities that buy our elections and who have no real need to remain in the Country if things go south. Tragic, what happened to our middle class.
 
There is no such thing as a "service economy", it's servitude. America was built as an agrerian society, lots of jobs filled by slaves. Next the Industrial Revolution and Civil War replace the majority of agriculture jobs with machines with newly freed slaves going into industry jobs, or share cropping for their former masters, investor land owners, or the bank. That basic system remains in place today with the Ag Banks taking a larger roll than before. Share cropping is still widespread though. We haven't added many agriculture jobs since then though, and shortened the worker supply, ergo all the Mexicans in the industry. If anything more efficient machinery has even cut some jobs in total. But more efficient machines also replaced labor in industry, and offshoring heavy industry has left us short of productive jobs for unskilled people. The answer is Urban Agriculture in abandoned industrial and commercial buildings.
 
Dav8or said:
Palo Alto airport is located smack dab in the middle of the Bay Area tech bubble. What happens there is not even close to representing what goes on in the rest of California, much less the rest of the country. It's tough for people there to see and understand that from inside the bubble.

You are correct though, at Palo Alto there are a lot of people getting their tickets and buying airplanes just for fun. Corresponding to the higher demand and fatter wallets, the rates are high there and people seeking the left seat in an airliner are better served elsewhere.
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So how is GA doing in the rest of California? Does it appear to be dying?
 
Palmpilot said:
So how is GA doing in the rest of California? Does it appear to be dying?
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In short. Yes. There are hot spots of activity like Palo Alto and popular destination airports that are doing fine, but when you travel to the hundreds of airports California has, most are struggling and some are just plain ghost towns.

I have no practical purpose for GA, my license or the airplane I own. I fly for fun and enjoyment only. One of the things I like to do is go to as many different airports as I can given my plane's ability to get in and out, flying budget and time. I have not been to all the airports in California but I have been to a load of them. The vast majority do not look like Palo Alto.
 
Dav8or said:
In short. Yes. There are hot spots of activity like Palo Alto and popular destination airports that are doing fine, but when you travel to the hundreds of airports California has, most are struggling and some are just plain ghost towns.

I have no practical purpose for GA, my license or the airplane I own. I fly for fun and enjoyment only. One of the things I like to do is go to as many different airports as I can given my plane's ability to get in and out, flying budget and time. I have not been to all the airports in California but I have been to a load of them. The vast majority do not look like Palo Alto.
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How do they look compared to the way they used to look?

(Not a rhetorical question. I really want to know.)
 
Dav8or said:
In short. Yes. There are hot spots of activity like Palo Alto and popular destination airports that are doing fine, but when you travel to the hundreds of airports California has, most are struggling and some are just plain ghost towns......
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I used to bomb around central CA in a C-150 in the early 90s. Most of the airports I saw were sleepy little "ghost towns" then. Looking at sky vector, it seems some of the ID codes have changed But, all the airports in my logbook are all still there.
 
Dav8or said:
In short. Yes. There are hot spots of activity like Palo Alto and popular destination airports that are doing fine, but when you travel to the hundreds of airports California has, most are struggling and some are just plain ghost towns.

I have no practical purpose for GA, my license or the airplane I own. I fly for fun and enjoyment only. One of the things I like to do is go to as many different airports as I can given my plane's ability to get in and out, flying budget and time. I have not been to all the airports in California but I have been to a load of them. The vast majority do not look like Palo Alto.
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That's just how things are going.

Look at airports in urban areas all over the country and they are thriving. Many larger cities have multiple GA airports booming.

People are more and more congregating in urban environments as a whole, especially those who make a lot of money. GA is declining, but even if it weren't, you'd still see many of these older rural airports looking like ghost towns.

The jobs are in the cities.
 
Palmpilot said:
How do they look compared to the way they used to look?

(Not a rhetorical question. I really want to know.)
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I learned to fly and lived in CA in the late 80s/early 90s. The comparison is staggering, especially since I was based at Long Beach which was a hive of activity both GA and Commercial with Douglas on the field. Tha activity I saw last January was a mere shadow of what it was then.
 
Dav8or said:
This kind of theory is as weak as trickle down economics. It doesn't work that way at all. Most service jobs don't pay diddly. The guy that owns the business that provides the service might make good money, but the guy who actually provides the service, doesn't make diddly in most cases.

I'm no economist (who are actually just high paid witch doctors/weather foreecasters than anything else), but if you look at the percentage of GDP that manufacturing used to account for in say the '70s, then look at the percentage now, then compare the median income for Americans then and now, then look at the unemployment and under employment figures today and it sort of paints a picture of what really happened.

Good paying jobs got turned in to crappy paying jobs, or no jobs at all. How can this be when the want ads are full of positions for high paying tech jobs and the like and many of these companies are having to import talent from overseas?? It's happening because the "retooling of America" isn't working.

Bottom line is, in any society anywhere in the world, not just America, a certain percentage of the population is just not cut out to be brain power. They are better suited to muscle power. 40 years ago we had a pretty good ratio going on and we did well as a whole, but our pursuit of higher corporate profits, new technology and the consumers thirst for everyday low prices has lead to our decline and a huge rift in wealth.

I don't have any great answer to this problem as it's a tough nut to crack, but one thing is for sure, the service sector can not take up the slack left from the decline of the manufacturing sector.
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It's immature thinking, simply voicing what some crackpot like laffer would spout. Without manufacturing we are cooked. Making beds for minimum wage isn't going to cut it. As Ross Perot stated..." Not free trade but fair trade" we do not demand fair trade so we deserve to get run into the ground. It's not a tough nut to crack. It's common sense. To quote Perot again..." Are we to wind up delivering pizza to each other?!" So far the answer is yes.
 
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