Interesting Avweb comment

[iflyforfun]

In discussing AOPA Summit on Avweb, Thomas Yarsley makes a really interesting comment. At a post air-show hanger party, he says they had their own mini-Summit. His comment:

"One consensus: 2020 is a looming A-bomb for GA. Most who spoke agreed that fully 50% of the existing GA fleet - and some associated percentage of GA pilots - will become "retired" in 2020 when the ADSB rules kick in, unless....

Unless one or more of the avionics manufacturers comes up with an affordable (read: <$6k, installed) one-box solution for meeting the requirements. And unless the FAA allows the industry to do it (STC, 337s, etc.). The "one-box" would have to include a glass 6-pack replacement (with all supporting sensors), a WAAS GPS, ADS-B in and out, blind encoder, and ELT."

Seems pretty spot on to me. In the next 6-7 years, we're looking at a great majority of the fleet facing a significant upgrade to stay functional for anything other than Sunday morning flying.

The traditional Garmin approach of bringing a $15k solution (plus installation) to the party will effectively kill a significant portion of the fleet. Heck, we joke that the G430 is ubiquitous, but looking at Barnstormers, a LOT of the fleet doesn't currently have a GPS that can be upgraded to WAAS ... and the 430 has already been abandoned.

I'm wondering if this represents a unique opportunity for someone like Dynon. They've built their entire business model around value for the dollar. This has forced them to focus on the experimental market because "value" and "certified" simply haven't fit in the same sentence. That said, pre-2020 all Dynon type upgrades were effectively optional. Come 2020, not so much the truth.

In addition to the avionics, Dynon has at least a start on the radio work.

Another potential player might be Aspen. They've brought out some really impressive products when you consider the certification hurdle they faced as well as the cost of competing commercial product.

What seems to always be the killer is the ABSURD certification expenses. I wonder if a real role for AOPA over the next 5 years could be on developing a streamlines certification solution that would address cost of complying with the ADSB mandate. Additionally, I believe there is a real need to address STC for installation (maybe, maybe not ... I'm no expert).

Anyway, with the headwinds that GA is facing, this really is another BIG problem. Our traditional industry response I don't think will address this ... we need to find another way to keep 40-50 year old planes (worth $25k-$35k) flying when the mandate hits. Without some type of innovative approach, I agree with Thomas that we'll see a significant portion of the fleet effectively grounded.

Thoughts?

 

[Silvaire]

Or move all of our base, business and activity outside the mode C lines. Either way the airlines have already won.

 

[alaskaflyer]

Thoughts?

Yes. I need to follow through with selling my 170 in Alaska to some person who thinks that the entire state or some portion of it will be exempted for a period of time beyond 2020, and go experimental which was my idea back in the spring. Of course, doing that only solves 1/2 of the problem. Installation approval and certification drives up costs but the equipment will still be expensive even so. Just cuz the Dynon glass panels are cheaper than certified Garmin units doesn't necessarily make them affordable.

 

[Bob Noel]

The ADS-B crap is one of the main reasons I sold my airplane.

 

[LDJones]

I fear they're correct.

 

[Mafoo]

2020 is a long way off.

Think how much has changed in the last 8 years. 8 years ago, there was no such thing as an iPhone, iPad, or Android.

Who knows what will be available in 8 years from now.

 

[N801BH]

Perfect time for Dynon and other "experimental" avionic companies to step up to the plate.. it would be better if the FAA reduced the certification levels so they can come into the market easier.....

At face value it does look dismal.... but I remember when we had to go from Mode A to Mode C and this same conversation took place... We all got through that one too.

 

[Z06_Mir]

Unless I can find 500k on the next 8 years ill still have my 182rg. It might have upgraded this or that, but it's too functional to replace with anything that's not pressurized. And turbo prop preferably.

 

[kyleb]

Perfect time for Dynon and other "experimental" avionic companies to set up to the plate.. it would be better if the FAA reduced the certification levels so they can come into the market easier.....

At face value it does look dismal.... but I remember when we had to go from Mode A to Mode C and this same conversation took place... We all got through that one too.

I wasn't around at that time. What was the upgrade price relative to the value of a typical C-172 or Cherokee 180?

In today's world, the cost of ADS-B compliance to the 2020 standard is easily a third of the value of those airplanes. That's backbreaking.

Honestly, I can't believe AOPA and EAA didn't lie down across the railroad tracks on this mandate.

 

[douglas393]

Why would the FAA mandates make the present 6 pack obsolete. As far as tha ADS-B requirements, why would not a I-Pad or equivalent pad married to an ADS-B receiver which is already available or a free standing hand held device such as a Garmin 796, 696, etc married to a ADS-B receiver, or with a receiver already in the device not be good enough. I guess I am missing something because I would think at least for VFR flights these devices may suffice.

Doug

 

[N801BH]

I wasn't around at that time. What was the upgrade price relative to the value of a typical C-172 or Cherokee 180?

In today's world, the cost of ADS-B compliance to the 2020 standard is easily a third of the value of those airplanes. That's backbreaking.

Honestly, I can't believe AOPA and EAA didn't lie down across the railroad tracks on this mandate.

About the same percentages....

I bought my first plane, N4341X in 1981 for 11,000.... Mid 80's was about the time Mode C was showing up on the scene.... If my memory serves me right the cost for a new transponder, blind encoder and installation was darn close to 4 grand...

 

[AdamZ]

Perfect time for Dynon and other "experimental" avionic companies to set up to the plate.. it would be better if the FAA reduced the certification levels so they can come into the market easier.....

...:

Ding Ding Ding we have a winnah!

 

[comanchepilot]

Over the next 5-6 years the companies that make the portable ADS-B units needs to generate reliability data - and then present that data to the FAA and have the portable units certified - its not 1972 any more - TSO is meaningless when it comes to electronics reliability - they either fail right away or they work til the smoke comes out.

There is today little real-world reliability difference between portable and panel mount units . . . the manufacturers just need to prove it to a bunch of guys sitting at desks in the least modern city in the nation . . .

 

[douglas393]

Over the next 5-6 years the companies that make the portable ADS-B units needs to generate reliability data - and then present that data to the FAA and have the portable units certified - its not 1972 any more - TSO is meaningless when it comes to electronics reliability - they either fail right away or they work til the smoke comes out.

There is today little real-world reliability difference between portable and panel mount units . . . the manufacturers just need to prove it to a bunch of guys sitting at desks in the least modern city in the nation . . .

So it would seem to me that between the competition between Garmin, Dyson, Aspen, and others as well as the pad add-ons it should be a no brainer that a simple relatively low cost solution should be available that will be acceptable to the FAA.

Doug

 

[ClimbnSink]

Perfect time for Dynon and other "experimental" avionic companies to set up to the plate.. it would be better if the FAA reduced the certification levels so they can come into the market easier.....
:

Why would they take capital they built avoiding certification game and spend it playing the certification game?
Consider their certifiwd competitors have a market advantage, they likely cant beat them at the certified game.
Same as suggesting Vans goes.certified and takes on cessna(yeah I know they have in the lsa market)

 

[wabower]

How did Garmin get where they are now?

Why would they take capital they built avoiding certification game and spend it playing the certification game?
Consider their certifiwd competitors have a market advantage, they likely cant beat them at the certified game.
Same as suggesting Vans goes.certified and takes on cessna(yeah I know they have in the lsa market)

 

[N801BH]

Why would they take capital they built avoiding certification game and spend it playing the certification game?
Consider their certifiwd competitors have a market advantage, they likely cant beat them at the certified game.
Same as suggesting Vans goes.certified and takes on cessna(yeah I know they have in the lsa market)

baby steps will get them on the road..

 

[douglas393]

How did Garmin get where they are now?

I would propose that Garmin makes the vast majority of its money on the non aviation applications (automobile, and marine applications mostly, and probably there hiking/biking applications) and a small amount of there profit on aviation. My guess is that a lot of the aviation applications came as off shoots of the marine applications.

Doug

 

[denverpilot]

How did Garmin get where they are now?

At the size company Dynon was at? Kissing more ass than Magellan to the U.S. Military.

 

[NoHeat]

Unless one or more of the avionics manufacturers comes up with an affordable (read: <$6k, installed) one-box solution for meeting the requirements. And unless the FAA allows the industry to do it (STC, 337s, etc.). The "one-box" would have to include a glass 6-pack replacement (with all supporting sensors), a WAAS GPS, ADS-B in and out, blind encoder, and ELT."

That's too much. What most planes will need to continue flying is just a new transponder with WAAS GPS. They mostly already have a transponder in the panel, so the perfect solution would be a new transponder with an integrated GPS that fits in the same hole in the panel. To make it economical, the included WAAS GPS doesn't have to provide any NAV function -- just provide the data for the transponder. So the installation would be just swap the box, install a new antenna, and run a cable to it.

 

[iflyforfun]

Ding Ding Ding we have a winnah!

That was really my original thought. I have no idea what kind of business Dynon currently does but here is a swag. Say they sell 200-300 systems a year with an average ticket of $10k-$13k (base Skyview is $4,900 but it is REALLY EASY to add a bunch of goodies). That puts company revenue in the range of $2M-$4M. Seems low, but argue the numbers with me, I'm all ears.

Now, look at the ADSB mandate in 2020 and think about a viable option. Maybe we'll see a curve with 10% upgrade in 2018, 20% in 2019 and 50% in 2020 with 20% of GA aircraft falling out. Now assume 200,000 GA aircraft in the pool and call it $6k per system. Dynon (for example) gets in the game big with their high value / low cost option. Assume they grab 60% of the market ... not unrealistic if you look at Garmin share of the WAAS GPS GA market.

So someone like Dynon is looking at an opportunity sized something like:
* 2018 - 12,000 units at $72M
* 2019 - 24,000 units at $144M
* 2020 - 60,000 units at $360M

Numbers are pretty staggering, but if you look at starting with a solid low cost base (Dynon D10 or Skyview) and then increase volumes by 2 orders of magnitude, it is fair to assume some pretty significant cost reductions and a real chance to amortize certification costs.

The real trick is to lead the pack with a target price that will keep the competition at bay. Who ever would jump on this would need to show steady progress and avoid any sense of vaporware.

Look at rough cost
* transponder - $1,500 (SWAG based on current mode C, they'd be selling a LOT of them, so maybe could hit).
* current Dynon D10 - $1,600 (retail is $2,200, low volume and note this includes a NON-certified GPS)
* amortized certification cost $500 (that would give you in the range of $20M for certification assuming even only 40,000 units sold
* dunno, must of forgot something - $1,000
* profit $1,500
Total unit cost - $5,600 + installation

From the pilots perspective, for 6-8 AMU installed (not chicken feed by any means, but this is aviation), you would have something that should drop into a standard 3 1/8" hole, provide live weather and traffic and complete low end EFIS capability.

So tell me, where am I wrong.

If someone takes the lead and builds based on significant volumes anticipated, we could really be looking at a relatively low cost increase in cockpit capability.

From the value perspective, I think someone like Dynon or Aspen has a shot. They're both building nice systems that, compared to Garmin or Avidyne, are dirt cheap and easy to install. Dynon has always been a value leader, but Aspen has actually been through the certification route and their system hit the market at 1/4 or less than what Garmin was selling at the time.

More thoughts?

 

[Jim Logajan]

In discussing AOPA Summit on Avweb, Thomas Yarsley makes a really interesting comment. At a post air-show hanger party, he says they had their own mini-Summit. His comment:

"One consensus: 2020 is a looming A-bomb for GA. Most who spoke agreed that fully 50% of the existing GA fleet - and some associated percentage of GA pilots - will become "retired" in 2020 when the ADSB rules kick in, unless....

Unless one or more of the avionics manufacturers comes up with an affordable (read: <$6k, installed) one-box solution for meeting the requirements. And unless the FAA allows the industry to do it (STC, 337s, etc.). The "one-box" would have to include a glass 6-pack replacement (with all supporting sensors), a WAAS GPS, ADS-B in and out, blind encoder, and ELT."

Seems pretty spot on to me.

Seems totally off track to me.

NavWorx is selling an ADS-B transceiver today for $2600. That leaves a hefty $3400 for labor, wire, and bandages while still being under the invented $6k limit.

Where in bloody heck did the rest of those so-called requiements spring? They must have been mighty hammered at that party to see anything in the ADS-B regulations that called for replacing any flight instruments.

ADS-B is expensive nonsense, but not that expensive.

 

[Jim Logajan]

Why would the FAA mandates make the present 6 pack obsolete. As far as tha ADS-B requirements, why would not a I-Pad or equivalent pad married to an ADS-B receiver which is already available or a free standing hand held device such as a Garmin 796, 696, etc married to a ADS-B receiver, or with a receiver already in the device not be good enough. I guess I am missing something because I would think at least for VFR flights these devices may suffice.

Doug

You and I must both be missing something. Beats me how the ADS-B requirement somehow bled off into requiring replacement of even a single flight instrument.

 

[iflyforfun]

You and I must both be missing something. Beats me how the ADS-B requirement somehow bled off into requiring replacement of even a single flight instrument.

I never saw a REQUIREMENT for flight instruments. What I see is a requirement for a WAAS certified GPS and ADS-B transceiver.

Assuming you don't have WAAS GPS - just look at 172s or 182s or Mooneys on Barnstormers - you are looking at a hefty investment. I actually think it is the WAAS GPS investment that is the killer.

Thus, if you need a WAAS GPS and a new transceiver, the question is what you get out of it and can a marginal additional investment bring you significantly more utility. If you bundle a WAAS GPS and transciever into the lowest possible cost box, maybe you are at $4k but you get exactly NO additional utility (maybe throw a $700 iPad into the mix and that isn't true). That said, the WAAS GPS and transceiver are the heart of a nice EFIS (yeah, you need a AHARS).

So, you've got a $25k Warrior with a couple of analog radios. You are looking at $4k just to stay legal or $6k-$7k to have essentially a full glass panel. That starts to look pretty attractive. It is all about volumes driving down the amortization of cost if one guy takes a commanding lead.

 

[iflyforfun]

Seems totally off track to me.

ADS-B is expensive nonsense, but not that expensive.

Maybe I'm way off. Do you or do you not need a WAAS GPS coupled to your ADS-B for the OUT portion of your reporting?

We can get weather for free, but it is the out part that is killer ... yes or no?

 

[Fearless Tower]

2020 is a long way off.

Think how much has changed in the last 8 years. 8 years ago, there was no such thing as an iPhone, iPad, or Android.

Who knows what will be available in 8 years from now.

Excellent point.

 

[kyleb]

That's too much. What most planes will need to continue flying is just a new transponder with WAAS GPS. They mostly already have a transponder in the panel, so the perfect solution would be a new transponder with an integrated GPS that fits in the same hole in the panel. To make it economical, the included WAAS GPS doesn't have to provide any NAV function -- just provide the data for the transponder. So the installation would be just swap the box, install a new antenna, and run a cable to it.

My thoughts exactly, at least as a base offering. From there, you could have the option to output the GPS signal to another (optional) box and feed a NAV device.

 

[Mafoo]

My thoughts exactly, at least as a base offering. From there, you could have the option to output the GPS signal to another (optional) box and feed a NAV device.

Yea, or just have wifi or bluetooth in it, and use whatever handheld gadget people are using in 8 years.

 

[douglas393]

Even if it requires a WAAS GPS receiver, the electronic component is not that expensive. I bought a WAAS/DPGS receiver for my boat for $500 about 7 years ago. Now, I realize it is not certified or approved for aviation use, but the electronics are no different than what is needed in a plane. All that is necessary is to decrease the costs of certification and provide the companies with protection from frivilous lawsuits(which the FAA could do, and should do) and now you have decreased the cost significantly.

The crux of the problem to me, is not is it feasible to do it at low cost(I think that is a nonargument, because even with 2012 technology you can get compliant fairly cheaply and 8 years is an epoch in terms of electronics) but whether or not the FAA, and the letter organizations truly support the future of general aviation. If they do not then the war has been lost before it even started, if they do then we all know what they have to do.

Doug

 

[Anthony]

Do you think the FAA/DHS really wants to facilitate GA, or do you think they'd like to reduce overall flights for workload and security reasons?

 

[Fearless Tower]

Do you think the FAA/DHS really wants to facilitate GA, or do you think they'd like to reduce overall flights for workload and security reasons?

I suspect that many of them could care less about facilitating GA. There are certainly many that would like to see GA die in order to reduce the workload....but the irony in that is this.....2020 happens to coincide with the massive Pt 121 retirements and projected pilot shortage. So, where are the future 121 pilots going to come from if they have no GA fleet to train in?

I am sure that a way ahead will become clear in the next 8 years, but at the present.....looking like a train wreck.

 

[Anthony]

I sincerely hope there is a relatively affordable alternative for fulfilling the ADS-B requirement. It does seem like a very useful tool, but at what cost?

 

[Bob Noel]

Even if it requires a WAAS GPS receiver, the electronic component is not that expensive. I bought a WAAS/DPGS receiver for my boat for $500 about 7 years ago. Now, I realize it is not certified or approved for aviation use, but the electronics are no different than what is needed in a plane. All that is necessary is to decrease the costs of certification ....

And there is the crux of the matter. There have many many many attempts at decreasing certification costs. All efforts have failed.

 

[n12365]

"One consensus: 2020 is a looming A-bomb for GA. Most who spoke agreed that fully 50% of the existing GA fleet - and some associated percentage of GA pilots - will become "retired" in 2020 when the ADSB rules kick in, unless....

I can't see this happening. People like to talk and threaten to quit flying if X happens or Y doesn't happen, but it rarely seems to happen. Marriage and kids are a bigger threat to GA than the ADS-B Out requirement.

The traditional Garmin approach of bringing a $15k solution (plus installation) to the party will effectively kill a significant portion of the fleet. Heck, we joke that the G430 is ubiquitous, but looking at Barnstormers, a LOT of the fleet doesn't currently have a GPS that can be upgraded to WAAS ... and the 430 has already been abandoned.

Less than three years after the ADS-B Out rule was finalized, Garmin has a $6k (plus installation) solution that includes a built-in WAAS GPS. The GDL88 operated on both 978 mhz and 1090 mhz, so you satisfy the ADS-B Out requirements and have access to traffic and weather if you have something to display it on. AvWeb had a short blurb about it a few months ago: http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Garmin_ADSB_Digital_Radar_206974-1.html

Ryan

 

[n12365]

Maybe I'm way off. Do you or do you not need a WAAS GPS coupled to your ADS-B for the OUT portion of your reporting?

No, it doesn't have to be a WAAS GPS, but there are accuracy,precision, reliability, etc requirements that for GA, only a WAAS GPS can meet. So effectively, you need to have a certified WAAS GPS.

We can get weather for free, but it is the out part that is killer ... yes or no?

I don't have a certified WAAS GPS in my plane and each year it gets more difficult to fly in the system without one. If I still don't have one by 2020, I have bigger problems than the lack of a position source for ADS-B.

Ryan

 

[N801BH]

.....

.......but whether or not the FAA, and the letter organizations truly support the future of general aviation. If they do not then the war has been lost before it even started, if they do then we all know what they have to do.

Doug

You are half right....... Nothing scares DHS more then all of us VFR aircraft ,who can fly almost anywhere, at anytime, without having to ask permission. Their solution is to use the ADS-B requirement as a way to track us 24 /7. If you connect the dots it becomes crystal clear on the ability of "them" to keep track of our movements... All in the name of collision avoidence... Yeah, right .. IMHO.

 

[Bob Noel]

Less than three years after the ADS-B Out rule was finalized, Garmin has a $6k (plus installation) solution that includes a built-in WAAS GPS. The GDL88 operated on both 978 mhz and 1090 mhz, so you satisfy the ADS-B Out requirements and have access to traffic and weather if you have something to display it on. AvWeb had a short blurb about it a few months ago: http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Garmin_ADSB_Digital_Radar_206974-1.html

Ryan

$6,000 plus installation would be close the 50% of the value of my airplane (well, the airplane I just recently sold).

Don't get me started on the problems with ADS-B, unvalidated sources, the need for ground ATC radars, and the need for ground based retransmission of targets.

 

[Anthony]

You are half right....... Nothing scares DHS more then all of us VFR aircraft ,who can fly almost anywhere, at anytime, without having to ask permission. Their solution is to use the ADS-B requirement as a way to track us 24 /7. If you connect the dots it becomes crystal clear on the ability of "them" to keep track of our movements... All in the name of collision avoidence... Yeah, right .. IMHO.

This is my thought as well. The freedom to fly NORDO or just with a mode c transponder is coming to an end in the name of police state induced security. Wonder when they will require cars, trucks, and boats to have similar systems?

 

[Fearless Tower]

Wonder when they will require cars, trucks, and boats to have similar systems?

Already exists in the maritime world. Everything above a set tonnage must have AIS (basically xpdr for ships). I am sure the trucking industry is close, if not there already.

 

[Anthony]

Already exists in the maritime world. Everything above a set tonnage must have AIS (basically xpdr for ships). I am sure the trucking industry is close, if not there already.

So I guess GA aircraft below a certain weight will be exampt too, right? I mean if small, personal size boats are exempt, so will little personal planes.