How to solve the US pilot shortage

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by FPK1, May 30, 2022.

  1. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Without a bachelors I can tell you first hand, yes.

    Interesting people are getting to the ATP level without ending up in a turbine at some point, that was normally the 1,000hr job
     
  2. Piperonca

    Piperonca Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2015
    Messages:
    1,358

    Display name:
    Piperonca
    It occurs to me that flying isn’t about the money. Having been in aviation in one form or another for most of a century, and my family longer than that, I say it’s a feast or famine occupation. Some strike it rich, etc. Good for them. You’re asking what the roulette wheel will turn up before it’s spun (terrible). If in your heart you want to fly, go for it. I didn’t have a degree when I started, either.
     
    snglecoil, Velocity173 and TCABM like this.
  3. EdFred

    EdFred Taxi to Parking

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    29,023
    Location:
    Michigan

    Display name:
    White Chocolate
    I've paid for almost all my flying. Only some freelance instructing on the side.

    Oh, for me, any job is about the money first. I do my fun stuff outside of work. Even if I went to the airlines, the first question would be, when will I be ahead $$ of where I am now?
     
    Rich Holt and Jackk like this.
  4. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Makes sense
     
  5. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    You have that backwards

    There is, as the airline call it, a “pilot shortage” or more honestly put a lack of pilots who WANT to GET INTO the 121 world. That is the issue.

    I’m not sure I’d say GA, that’s a wide net, but qualified pilots who hold or could get a ATP THAT is who you are trying to get to and attract as a airline.

    Who cares how to attract the pilots who already work for you, they already work for you, their opinions on what would draw someone there are mostly moot

    The question is the tons (and we have TONS) of QUALIFIED pilots in the US who don’t find the INITIAL OFFERINGS of 121 life worth it, those are the people who matter. So what do they need to do to get them to come work for the airlines, because the bad pay and schedule for a carrot on a stick of a Sr major seat ain’t cutting it.
     
  6. TCABM

    TCABM En-Route

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    3,345

    Display name:
    3G
    Not being a hater here, but I will not work in a union shop in any industry for any reason.

    ETA: if the management/labor relationship is that bad to need labor to organize, that’s not a place I want to be.
     
  7. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,699
    Location:
    Nashville, TN

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    You seem to have lost the context of what I'm talking about.

    That context is your statement about "super low regional pay". Regional pay has not been "super low" for a number of years. If "$500,000 ±$150,000", as EdFred posted, is your standard for not being "super low pay" then you won't be be happy with an airline job, of any kind.

    I don't care if you want to be an airline pilot. If you don't, don't. I would never encourage anyone to take this path unless they are already very motivated to do it.
     
  8. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    I agree, the best paying flying gigs I have had were NOT union jobs.

    Though it doesn’t really change the problem, doesn’t matter the excuse of why the airline can’t change, they ether can change or maybe get management to fly damn planes lol
     
  9. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Show me the regional that pays a year 1 new hire 500k, and I’ll send my application in tonight.

    But year one FO @ 60k-75k unless you work all your days off, dealing with roller bags in major airports, unfortunate bases and living in so so hotels, that’s just not attractive to most anyone.
     
  10. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,699
    Location:
    Nashville, TN

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    There are none, so no reason to apply.
     
  11. SkyChaser

    SkyChaser Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2020
    Messages:
    1,268

    Display name:
    SkyChaser
    So...now that the bachelor's degree requirement has basically been dropped, going from zero to hero roughly equals the cost of many four year degrees, more or less. Most entry level jobs pay between $20k - $50k, though some specialized areas do pay closer to $75k+. Why does a year 1 hire need to make more than $85k to be considered "above poverty line"? What am I missing?

    Money doesn't have too much to do with it, in my opinion, though. I think, as someone who thought quite seriously about becoming an airline pilot before meeting my husband and getting married, that being away from home so many nights and the "unscheduled schedule" are huge showstoppers for us "younger kids". If you're single, it's a grand adventure and who cares if you go weeks without darkening your own doorstep? But if you have a significant other or family, it seems like most people my age would rather take a paycut and a boring 9-5 job so they can be a part of their family's daily lives.
     
  12. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    lots wrong here

    for the most part a CPL IFR will cost more than a local generic degree, way more than a trade school certificate.

    And a entry level job for a pilot is a CFI, drop zone, banner tow. You are NOT going from hitting 250hrs to flying for a regional, and that’s a good thing.

    Being away from home all the time would have been a draw back for most every generation.
     
  13. SkyChaser

    SkyChaser Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2020
    Messages:
    1,268

    Display name:
    SkyChaser
    I specified that an ATP should be equal to an average 4 year bachelor's degree. I probably should have said getting a Master's, if a 4 year degree is equal to getting CPL/IFR in your book. Yes, a trade school cert is less, but that isn't what I was using as a comparison. An ATP would cost more than a generic degree, but so does a bachelor's. The national average for a student nowadays is graduating with almost $30k of student loans, and that doesn't include the out-of-pocket expenses every semester. Master's programs were quite expensive when I looked into them. Those zero to hero programs advertise costs of 100k from 0 hours to a position at a regionals. High school diploma to Master's degree probably favorable compares as to first year employment possibilities, and it could easily hit that $100k mark in costs, to make very similar money as a first year ATP at a regional.

    I never said that being away from home is a drawback for only the younger generation, but I'm pretty sure being away is tolerated a lot less by the younger generation.
     
  14. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    With the time, and often INDUSTRY WORKING EXPERIENCE, it takes to build the requirements for a ATP, you’re talking more a PHD.

    Seems good old John and Martha agree

    56826E41-E707-4A6A-9D06-2C7B05F4B678.jpeg

    Not many were getting their CPL and IFR for 30k decades ago, I doubt many with our new inflation and the fuel price gouging are going to be doing it for less than someone in say 2002 could.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2022
  15. SkyChaser

    SkyChaser Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2020
    Messages:
    1,268

    Display name:
    SkyChaser
    Ironically, the higher the level of education you push it to, the closer it comes in both cost and estimated "return" in salary.

    This website says the average debt of a doctorate student is $100k, so it's coming awfully close to costing the same to get a PhD as it costs to go from zero hours to ATP and regional ready.

    In 2009 - 2011, the US Census Bureau took a survey about median income for various disciplines and education levels. Even adjusted for inflation, it is hard to argue that pilots make a lower median income than any other doctorate degree. Michigan State provided this data in a neat chart here.
     
    Jackk likes this.
  16. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    0-ATP as in you're working from the fresh CPL 250 to 1500?

    Because at $160hr average for a plane, if you were going to pay for all your hours all the way to 1500, not even factoring any written, supplies, multi aircraft, check ride fees, CTP these days, and so on, that’s $240,000.00

    If you go the working route, where you have had probably 2-3 jobs as a pilot to get the ATP mins, educationally that puts you ahead of most PHDs, who really don’t have much full time working in the wild experience in their field of study, outside of academia, when they get their PHD.
     
  17. SkyChaser

    SkyChaser Cleared for Takeoff

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2020
    Messages:
    1,268

    Display name:
    SkyChaser
    I'm not sure how those "zero to hero" programs work - maybe you work at the school or something until you get your minimum hours? Not sure, just know that there were quite a few "zero to hero" programs promising to take you from absolutely no flight time to working at a regional airline for $100k about a year or two ago when I was looking into everything.

    I totally agree that most ATPs have way more real experience when they start than the average PhD!
     
    Jackk likes this.
  18. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Problem with CFIing to a ATP is not many get the XC and night and whatnot when they hit 1500, so the smart money is CFI to 500, next job, 1k tt first turbine, ready for ATP @ 1500
     
  19. Jeff767

    Jeff767 Line Up and Wait

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    639

    Display name:
    Jeff767
    If your goal is to get hired at a major you still need a college degree or a much stronger resume including some management experience. The other option without a degree is a regional with a flow program. A significant number of pilots hired at the majors have Master degrees. If you don’t have a degree and want that job show you are making progress via online courses ect..
     
  20. EdFred

    EdFred Taxi to Parking

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    29,023
    Location:
    Michigan

    Display name:
    White Chocolate
    So it's not just as simple as "after a year you get any schedule you want" as you initially made it out to be. You also didn't answer how long I have to be at a regional first.
     
  21. jordane93

    jordane93 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2013
    Messages:
    10,466
    Location:
    Long Island, NY

    Display name:
    Jordan
    After a few months at my regional I was getting weekends off which is what I wanted and any other specific days off I needed. In this hiring environment, people are getting hired at legacies without any TPIC time and are spending 2-3 years at a regional. Also guys are leaving for Spirit, Frontier, and JetBlue after only a 1 or less at their regional.
     
  22. EdFred

    EdFred Taxi to Parking

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    29,023
    Location:
    Michigan

    Display name:
    White Chocolate
    Thanks for the info...now, how long before I'm "mid six figures" so basically over 350k?
     
  23. jordane93

    jordane93 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2013
    Messages:
    10,466
    Location:
    Long Island, NY

    Display name:
    Jordan
    FedEX and UPS pay the best and I think they’re upgrade time is quick. Assuming you leave a regional in 2 years and upgrade in 3 years to captain at one of those carriers you should be around $350K. I believe @Sluggo63 works at one of the cargo carriers. He may be able to chime in.
     
  24. EdFred

    EdFred Taxi to Parking

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    29,023
    Location:
    Michigan

    Display name:
    White Chocolate
    I heard was "impossible" to get on with either of those places unless you're basically related to someone in the flight department.
     
  25. jordane93

    jordane93 Touchdown! Greaser!

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2013
    Messages:
    10,466
    Location:
    Long Island, NY

    Display name:
    Jordan
    No idea. Probably easier to get on now than it was a few years ago.
     
  26. Jeff Oslick

    Jeff Oslick En-Route

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2005
    Messages:
    4,789
    Location:
    Fullerton, CA

    Display name:
    Jeff Oslick
    I don't know where you're getting your math from, but getting a BS/MS/PhD combined is well north of 10,000 hours of class, study and research time. Closer to 20,000 hours for many fields. Even acknowledging that 1,500 hours does not at all represent the time spent actually "on the job", it certainly isn't 10x 1,500 hours.

    The second part is a non sequitor. The experience you get while earning a PhD serves to train you to work independently in your field at a level that only some with a MS degree can do, and far fewer with only a BS. You really cannot compare a degree program to FAA certificates; the learning processes and goals of the training are very different.
     
    TCABM likes this.
  27. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Comparing class room “hours” with flight hours doesn’t really work, and if you were going to pay for all your hours you’d need to pay for 1500 as that’s the number. A good deal of PHDs never leave the school environment, and the hours researching whatever on their laptop at Starbucks just isn’t in the same realm as logging those hours flying to put foot on your table on the proverbial dark and stormy night
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2022
  28. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    I know a person who just got on with delta who did not have a BA or above degree. Flowed up to another major, put in a app and got the call.

    Thankfully most of the airlines have wised up and removed the silly degree requirement.
     
  29. martym

    martym Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2018
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    MI

    Display name:
    martym
    The grapes on those vines will always be sour to some.
     
  30. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Some people like less money and more time in hotels?
     
  31. EdFred

    EdFred Taxi to Parking

    Joined:
    Feb 25, 2005
    Messages:
    29,023
    Location:
    Michigan

    Display name:
    White Chocolate
    Looks like the UPS option unless you are still in school is:
    Then after that:
    Additional notes:
    That's just to get the F/O interview. Who knows how long you sit right seat.

    But of course you gotta get hired at Ameriflight first.

    Current jobs there:

    Beech 99 - 51k,
    meet 135 mins

    Beech 1900 - 69k
    meet 135 mins
    previous 121/135 experience

    Saab 340 - 72k plus $0.18/mile
    Meet 135 mins
    Previous 121/135 experience
    3,000 TT, 1000 PIC, 500 hours XC (defined at point to point), 500 multi, 500 turbine, 200 hours instrument (50 must be in an aircraft), 100 hours night

    EMB-120 - 72k no mileage.
    Same experience as 340

    SA227 - 69k
    2,000 TT, 1000 PIC, 500 hours XC (defined at point to point), 250 multi, 200 turbine, 100 hours instrument (50 must be in aircraft), 100 hours night

    So, gotta start on the 99 and work for who knows how long until you are a check airman, instructor, or management, and also start throwing money at a bachelors.

    Not to mention the massive pay cut from what I am doing now.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2022
    TCABM and Jackk like this.
  32. Jeff Oslick

    Jeff Oslick En-Route

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2005
    Messages:
    4,789
    Location:
    Fullerton, CA

    Display name:
    Jeff Oslick
    That was part of my point, there is no comparison, so none should be drawn.

    I could equally argue that a good number of fresh ATPs don't have much time beyond hopping around the patch in a 172.
     
    TCABM likes this.
  33. martym

    martym Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2018
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    MI

    Display name:
    martym
    some people like to argue with over-generalization fallacies?
     
    Groundpounder and nauga like this.
  34. Larry in TN

    Larry in TN En-Route

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2013
    Messages:
    2,699
    Location:
    Nashville, TN

    Display name:
    Larry in TN
    Is it still fake news? I've seen additional posts confirming it.
     
  35. martym

    martym Pre-takeoff checklist

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2018
    Messages:
    192
    Location:
    MI

    Display name:
    martym
    Supply and demand. At one time the joke was you need "at least 2 shuttle landings"
     
    EdFred likes this.
  36. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    You are not getting a ATP by hopping around the local area in a 172
     
  37. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Guess that’s why they are having a shortage of people who want to fly for them?
     
  38. Jeff Oslick

    Jeff Oslick En-Route

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2005
    Messages:
    4,789
    Location:
    Fullerton, CA

    Display name:
    Jeff Oslick
    Extend the local area out to 50 miles, and yes, the vast majority of it certainly can be.
     
  39. Jackk

    Jackk Ejection Handle Pulled

    Joined:
    May 19, 2022
    Messages:
    413

    Display name:
    Jackk
    Appears you have a 172, you a ATP?
     
  40. Jeff Oslick

    Jeff Oslick En-Route

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2005
    Messages:
    4,789
    Location:
    Fullerton, CA

    Display name:
    Jeff Oslick
    182. No, but I've been partners in the plane for 17 years with a captain for a major.