How safe is G.A. flying?

[sba55]

There are plenty of extremely proficient, extremely dead pilots in the NTSB reports. While "proficiency" in itself is a good thing, and no doubt contributes to safety, it is by no means a silver bullet, and cannot prevent errors in judgment.

I wager that the successful part 121 safety record is due in part to an atmosphere where poor judgment has no place - both because pilot judgment has been largely replaced by opSpecs, and because poor judgment is punished severely.

Of course proficiency isn't a silver bullet. I don't think anyone here thinks that.

I agree about the bit about p121. Just need to create a similar a similar atmosphere for yourself.

 

[alaskaflyer]

And the fact that in nearly all 121 and lots of 135 flying you have other qualified crewmen working with you, enhancing the likelihood of an error being detected and corrected early, thus breaking the accident chain.

And of course, requirements for proficiency too.

Put another way, there are errors of omission, and errors of commission, and both are dangerous, and lots of practice may reduce the number of errors of omission to near zero but not protect you from errors of commission if you are otherwise a jackass

 

[ted gilbertson]

As of anything idiots get killed even on bicyles.I had to ask other pilots,do you think is safe to take my 18 month old in the plane on a lap? I read all the accident reports and it spokes me,but how many times have I amost been hit on a motorcycle? My only fears in aviation is engine problems and the biggest one is mid-airs. I drive a semi-truck every day and feel much safer in a c-152. I try to avoid bad situations and hope that I will never have to experience something that I have no power over. My wife will not fly in anything but she also believes that I am not putting our children in danger. Most people who have a bad opinion on GA have never flown in one. It to years of rc plane flying to get my private ticket. One day I came to the realization that if my models always come back I guess I will to. It is true that most Ga accidents come for pilot error,but so do auto accidents,so how can you say planes are more unsafe. As the saying go's "Aviation is not unsafe..its just very unforgiving to mistakes"
Everyone be safe and keep enjoying flying,there was a guy that had a very popular ultralight company and was killed leaving the factory on his motorcycle!!

 

[ted gilbertson]

Discamer: since I want to be an ag-pilot I guess my opinion should be discarded

 

[poadeleted20]

Unless you can claim to have data to support it, I'd have to call this a "hunch".

Data, not a hunch. A couple of years ago, I did an examination of five years of Grumman accident data (including a large number of insurance claims not reported as accidents to the NTSB). The most serious accidents (like fatals) all involved really bad decisions (e.g., over gross, high DA, flew up a box canyon). The majority of the less serious accidents involved screwed up landings, usually due to excess speed for the wrong reasons. But all you need do is look through the NTSB accident reports and see what I'm talking about. In addition, think of the fatal accidents involving pilots you know -- how many of those left you wondering how it happened to such a good pilot, and how many left you wondering why it didn't happen sooner to that pilot?

 

[silver-eagle]

Life is full of challenges and risks. The best you can do is meet the challenges and train to minimize the risks. For your potential passengers, you can allay some of their worries by identifying the recurring training you do, the number of hours you've flown, the types of flying you do.
Crossing the street, my head is on a swivel. I look more like Linda Blair. Even on the so called quiet road, you need to be alert.
Same in a plane. Be as safe as you can, keep proficient, and maintain your situational awareness. Worry about being a statistic on the "pilot error" page.
I would much rather fly than drive. It may be just my perception but I believe pilots adhere to the "rules of the road" more than drivers do for we're always aware that one screw up just might cost us our license.
Statistics can be tortured enough to say anything. For me, it's about the near 500 hours in my log without an incident. It's coming. I just hope I'm prepared to deal with it.

 

[brcase]

Just for fun I reviewed all the November 2007 Single engine airplane fatal accidents in the U.S. here are what I found. I may have speculated a bit more than some people would on some of these accidents but you are welcome to review them yourself and come to your own conclusions.

My Code key (E)=Experiment (D)=Drugs/Alcohol (L)=Low Flying (N)=Night

1. CH108 – 71 year old pilot on 4th flight of experimental aircraft crashes for unknown reasons (E)

2. Mooney – Fuel Contamination and Cocaine usage (D)

3. RV-10 – Low flying, possible engine problem (non-aviation engine) (L) (E)

4. F1B – Formula 1 Racer Spins in for unknown reasons (E)

5. C-172 – Loss of control while maneuvering at low altitude. (L)

6. 601HDS – Take-off Accident, possible controls Jammed (E)

7. T-182 – Night CFIT, (N)

8. PA28R – In-flight Breakup in VFR Conditions (V)

9. Mooney – Night IFR Departure, Loss of control (W)

10. SR-20 - Loss of control On IFR Approach (W)

11. C-177 – VFR - Stall spin on approach (limited time in aircraft and at airport) (V)

12. C-150 – Take off with 30 degrees Flap, and Failed Flap Fuse prevented retraction. With instructor onboard. (V)

13. SR-22 – Loss of control while landing in Turbulent conditions. (W)

14. Challenger, 70 year old pilot , unknown cause (E)

15. T210 – Night VFR Electrical Failure, Hit Trees and Power lines on Short Final. (N)

16. C-182 – Pipeline patrol, Pilot impaired by Alcohol. (D)

17 C-172 – Stall spin from ~700 ft AGL,

18. Mooney – IFR loss of control on Missed approach. (W)

My review shows the follow.

Low Flying = 2 maybe 3 2/18 = 11% 3/18 = 17% (L)
Weather = 3 or 4 4/18= 22% 5/18 = 28% (W)
Alcohol/Drugs = 2 2/18 = 11% (D)
Night = 2 2/18 = 11% (N)

These account for minimum of 55% of the fatal accidents and perhaps as much as 67%.

Also of interest.

4 or another 22% of these were in experimental aircraft although a couple of them may have made it into the Sport Category (E)

If you only fly Day VFR in good conditions in standard category aircraft and avoid the Alcohol/drugs then perhaps only 2 (maybe 3) of these might have been you or between 11% and 17%.

I agree this is a very small snap shot and statistical insignificant and November is a pretty safe month for Crop dusters. But it is interesting to take a look a small random piece of data.

Brian
CFIIG/ASEL

 

[mantakos]

Nobody's claiming immunity. However, you can reduce or eliminate both stupid or bad decisions.

Certainly, that's the goal. Maybe a point of difference, though, is that I'm "assuming" that the NTSB database represents the worst days of "average pilots", whereas I think I hear others assuming that it's something more like the average days of the "worst pilots".

I confess that I have no way of knowing which is more true, though, like everybody else, I _want_ to believe that it's a record of the sad tales that result from the escapades of the "worst pilots", because I'm fairly confident I'm not one of those.

I'm fairly comfortable putting Cory Lidle (perhaps with a bit of an icy heart, on my part) on that "escapades of worst pilots" list. But I have to also explain the losses of Scott Crossfield and Steve Fossett, and near fatal crash of Sparky Imeson. If these incidents were due to "lack of competence", then we're using a definition of that term that's slightly different from the one most commonly used.
-harry

 

[Ted]

Back to the OP's question:

I have certain friends (one in particular comes to mind) who are convinced I'm going to kill myself flying. Said people are afraid of any flying, and the concept of a small plane is just completely terrifying. You will not convince these people. I find the best course of action is just to not talk about it with people who are opinionated and have no intention of changing their minds. It will only frustrate the both of you and place a strain on your friendship.

Most others think it's a really great accomplishment. I don't actually get many questions about whether or not it's safe. In fact, what astonished me was how willing people were to jump in a plane with me, right after I got my private. Then again, they all knew me pretty well, so I think they were basing their trust in me on my character (no laughing from the peanut gallery).

A big thing a lot of people hear about is JFK Jr. not having his instrument rating and crashing because of it. My mom had that concern. Once I got my instrument rating, my mom instantly decided that I was a good pilot, and was no longer concerned. She now has no problem flying with me, but she wants me to fly her places in a cabin class twin. The twin part because she believes in having a backup engine, and the cabin class because she has a hard time getting in and out of standard planes, so she wants the air stair door. Good luck, mom. I asked Santa for a 421 tonight. He said he'd try, but I'm not too hopeful I'll have the keys to one under my stocking tomorrow.

Best you can do is be the safest pilot you can be, and convince people accordingly that flying is safe. Because of the high amount of pilot error induced accidents in GA flying, you really are more in control than in road based travel. Act accordingly, and you'll hopefully contribute to the statistics in a positive way - by not crashing.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

But I have to also explain the losses of Scott Crossfield and Steve Fossett, and near fatal crash of Sparky Imeson.

Crossfield? Yep... But he got bad info from ATC WRT storms. Imeson? Yep... And he'll tell you the mistakes he made, and that we're all human. Fossett? Well, you have a higher opinion of him than I do, I guess. IMHO, he was more of a master of the art of endurance than the art of flying.

One thing that I always go back to is an example from teaching truck drivers. I never had a trainee that said "I don't really care if I have an accident." Pretty much every one said "I want to be safe and accident-free so I have a good record and get my safety bonus." And like the rest of the industry, 2/3ds of them had a minor accident within 90 days - Generally, backing into something or cutting a corner too tight.

After I realized this, I started talking about the psychology of safety with them. I told them that every single trainee I'd ever had said they were going to do their best and be safe, and that still, 2/3ds of them had an accident in the first 90 days. I told them that you can't think about safety 99.99% of the time, because you WILL have an accident in that last 0.01%. I told them that accidents don't happen at high noon on a sunny day with a dry road and a full night's sleep, they happen when the weather sucks, you've been trudging around New Jersey getting yelled at in Spanish or Engtalian by imbeciles on loading docks on a four-pickup load, it's been snowing all day, and you got three hours of sleep. You finally make it over to Columbia or Lamar or Brookville, you're finally in range to finish the trip the next day, you get into a truck stop and you're backing into a parking spot wanting nothing but to get in the bunk as soon as possible - And that keeps you from getting out and looking, and you knock out someone's headlight on your blind side. BTDT. I tell them, DO NOT let yourself think that you don't have to get out and look, because when you're tired and just want to get in the bunk, THAT is when it happens, and in the process of taking care of all the post-accident junk you will take MUCH longer to get into that bunk if you don't get out and look.

What happened to my trainees' accident rate after I started giving that whole spiel to them?

Not a damn thing. I came to the conclusion that ego, combined with not wanting to get in an accident, led people to think that they couldn't get into an accident. Until you have the attitude that "It CAN happen to me," you do not have a safe frame of mind.

I think that as pilots, we have it even a little bit worse - The general public sees pilots as steely-eyed missile men in a way, with a certain amount of bravado. When we become pilots, I think we tend to step into that role, and in doing so, when we get together with a group of pilots we tend to try to one-up each other just that much more, which feeds the ego monster and pushes us ever further from the "It CAN happen to me" attitude that can keep us out of the trees. And the crazy thing is, even though I "know" this, it applies to me just as much as anyone else.

I'd like to think that we on this board are safer pilots than the general pilot population, and I think we probably are to some extent. But, I learned a couple of years ago that WE, yes those of us right here on the friendly blue board, we aren't as safe as we think we are, both individually and collectively. I even posted about it at that point, I believe the thread was called "Safety and the group dynamic." I saw people in a previous thread swearing left and right that they'd never do this, they'd never do that, when in fact I had personally watched those same people do exactly the things they swore they wouldn't. After that thread, I had several others tell me about very near-disastrous things they had done. That's when I realized that as safe as we are because of this board, we are also unsafe for some of the same reasons, and most of it has to do with our incorrect answer to the question "Can it happen to me?"

It CAN happen to you, folks, and until you admit that to yourself (something I'm still having as much trouble with as anyone!), you and I are both accidents waiting to happen. We'll tiptoe past those links in the chain - I can go flying today, because that little tiny issue I found on preflight isn't that bad. It might kill someone else, but they're not as good of a pilot as I am. I can go flying today, because last time the weather was like this, it ended up being OK, so it won't get worse today. I can go flying today, because I know that if my engine fails I'll do a perfect dead-stick landing into an open field, and I know I'm dressed warm enough to stand around in that open field in this weather. I can go flying today, because if anything happens I'm sure I can handle it - Sure I didn't quite get enough sleep last night, but I feel OK. And sooner or later, we're gonna be at the other end of the chain, looking back and feeling a bit silly that we let the chain build to that point.

And that's how good pilots get in accidents. Be safe out there, folks.

 

[gismo]

Crossfield? Yep... But he got bad info from ATC WRT storms.

IMO Crossfield's accident was the consequence of relying on ATC for thunderstorm avoidance, a fairly risky concept. There may or may not have been overconfidence involved as well (I can handle anything mother nature throws at me).

Imeson? Yep... And he'll tell you the mistakes he made, and that we're all human.

I can't remember if Sparky admitted that overconfidence played a part in his ADM that led to the crash but I suspect it did. IIRC, many of the mistakes he did confess involved violating some of his own "rules". What do you suppose precipated that?

Fossett? Well, you have a higher opinion of him than I do, I guess. IMHO, he was more of a master of the art of endurance than the art of flying.

I haven't a clue what caused Fossett's crash.

What happened to my trainees' accident rate after I started giving that whole spiel to them?

Not a damn thing. I came to the conclusion that ego, combined with not wanting to get in an accident, led people to think that they couldn't get into an accident. Until you have the attitude that "It CAN happen to me," you do not have a safe frame of mind.

Unfortunately, the very judgement needed to recognize and heed those subtle warning signs and/or little voices is degraded by the same causes one needs to consider. And I really don't have a good answer for avoiding that. I do believe that a certain portion of our safety is always the result of "luck" and that we should continue work on ways to minimize that portion (although we will never eliminate it completely).

 

[KennyFlys]

Crossfield's accident was characteristic of what happens when the pilot thinks the controller is looking out ahead and the controller thinks the pilot has a better view of what's happening.

Bottom line, if the controller isn't asking you, ask him/her. They may see embedded storms such as what Crossfield encountered. But, if you can't verify what's inside of that cloud, don't keep going. Ask someone or go around it.

Not long before that, an airliner over Arkansas had a similar occurrence and discovered the truth after it was too late not to mention "get it on the ground-itis."

 

[gismo]

Crossfield's accident was characteristic of what happens when the pilot thinks the controller is looking out ahead and the controller thinks the pilot has a better view of what's happening.

Bottom line, if the controller isn't asking you, ask him/her. They may see embedded storms such as what Crossfield encountered. But, if you can't verify what's inside of that cloud, don't keep going. Ask someone or go around it.

Not long before that, an airliner over Arkansas had a similar occurrence and discovered the truth after it was too late not to mention "get it on the ground-itis."

That's pretty much what I meant by: "the consequence of relying on ATC for thunderstorm avoidance, a fairly risky concept" although IMO, even when ATC understands that you want all the help you can get from them WRT TRW avoidance, the assistance given will vary from useless to somewhat helpful. Variables include controller skill/experience, radar equipment, distance from the ATC radar, and controller activity level.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

IMO Crossfield's accident was the consequence of relying on ATC for thunderstorm avoidance, a fairly risky concept. There may or may not have been overconfidence involved as well (I can handle anything mother nature throws at me).

Agreed - And he was bitten by this:

I came to the conclusion that ego, combined with not wanting to get in an accident, led people to think that they couldn't get into an accident. Until you have the attitude that "It CAN happen to me," you do not have a safe frame of mind.

I can't remember if Sparky admitted that overconfidence played a part in his ADM that led to the crash but I suspect it did. IIRC, many of the mistakes he did confess involved violating some of his own "rules". What do you suppose precipated that?

He didn't have the "It CAN happen to me" attitude, at least not on that flight. "It'll be OK, just this once..." and it goes downhill from there.

I haven't a clue what caused Fossett's crash.

Nor do I, my poorly-made point was simply that on the list of the truly best pilots of our time, Fossett doesn't make the list IMHO.

Unfortunately, the very judgement needed to recognize and heed those subtle warning signs and/or little voices is degraded by the same causes one needs to consider. And I really don't have a good answer for avoiding that.

Nor do I. As I said, I haven't gotten to the point where I'm not susceptible to it myself. I suspect that very few of us have, and those few are people like CrashAxe who HAVE had something happen. I thought his post on what he'll do differently now that it has happened was one of the best this board has ever had.

I do believe that a certain portion of our safety is always the result of "luck" and that we should continue work on ways to minimize that portion (although we will never eliminate it completely).

And it's probably a larger portion than any of us can really truly admit to ourselves.

 

[dmccormack]

If 99.9% of our friends and family are complete idiots, then the presentation can be dumbed down to their level. But if you're the one who's the pilot, I think you should know the "real" answer, both because your passengers are climbing aboard based on trust in your judgment, and because this real answer is a good basis for forming your dumbed-down response (e.g. "in the same ballpark as riding a motorcycle").

That answer is as "real" as you want to make it. With helmet or without? Night or day? High speed a factor? Fatigue? Worn tires? Inexperienced rider?

Sorry, the statistical route is fraught with bias -- in either direction.

You want GA to be "safe"? State that "90% of accidents are due to pilot error."

You want GA to be "dangerous"? State that "the fatality rate per accident is higher than any other motorized transport."

We pilots won't ever win the "Is flying safe?" discussion quoting statistics. It is a sure loser as the "lies, damned lies, and statistics" can be formulated to support either side.

"Is flying in one of those small airplanes safe?" is not a statistical evidence interrogative. It is usually a plea for more information before I climb into that thing.

 

[jmagger]

I tell people simply, Its not the flying thats dangerous its the crashing thats dangerous.

 

[snowbird]

Does anyone remember a study a few years back that showed a strong correlation between pilot's safety records and their credit ratings? The lesson was that those who play fast and loose with money do the same with aircraft.

 

[brcase]

Nor do I, my poorly-made point was simply that on the list of the truly best pilots of our time, Fossett doesn't make the list IMHO.

When one of my 1st students took his private check ride the examiner asked him. "What is you goal in aviation?" My student gave one of the best answers I have ever heard, he said "I want to ever make it to the front page of the newspaper. I don't want to ever be that good or that bad of a pilot."

Brian
CFIIG/ASEL