How much do you worry about scattered thunderstorms?

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drotto

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drotto
I am planing on doing trip this weekend of about 2 hours VFR. I know long range weather stinks. Hell short range weather can stink. At this point they are projecting scattered showers and thunderstorm possible. Five or so days out is this enough to scrub the trip yet? Even if the weather is predicting a possibility of scattered TS, how many would still plan on flying (remember this is VFR)? My passengers are well aware that safety is my first consideration.
 
I don't listen to weather guessers until about two days out. I also don't sweat much over scattered thunderstorms. You have an airplane. Fly around them. If it becomes too much, land, grab a computer and take a look.

The biggest tip I can give when going into uncharted waters is to always have a way out. Always. It can either work out better than expected or worse than expected but if you have a way out to safety, you don't have much to worry about.

Also, don't fly into one. Ever. It should be common sense but it happens more often than it should.
 
Plan your trip as best you can. If it looks good then go ahead.

Flight following does a good job of alerting you of scattered cells. At least they have the few times I was flying around them. But you can usually see and avoid them, if they are scattered.
 
Personally, I wouldn't scrap the trip until the day of. Wx this time of year is very unpredictable, at least in the part of the country I live in. Thunderstorms in my opinion are definitely something to cancel a flight over. I've been there and done that, not again! Scattered showers not so much as long as the bases are relatively high and visibility is good.
 

Especially if it's day VFR


See and avoid.

No biggie
 
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There's pop ups all the time during the summer. Take a look at the convective outlook and keep a safe distance. Best to depart early in the am or at night.
 
The first thing I'd consider is your schedule flexibility. If you can move your departure times forward or back as needed or cancel the trip altogether at the last minute then I wouldn't worry about the possibility for a few scattered thunderstorms. Oftentimes I don't know if I'm going until I wake up the morning of the proposed trip. If your schedule is rigid with no time on either end and you must leave at your scheduled time or things won't work then you might want to consider scrapping the trip now and looking at another more reliable mode of transportation.
 
Good advice in the previous replies. Keep an eye on the weather. Thunderstorms are unpredictable as to where they'll be. Get a radar app on your phone. I use MyRadar the free version. That will give you a good idea of where the storms are right before you takeoff. As Capt Kirk said, give T-storms a wide berth, DON'T EVEN TRY FLYING THRU THEM, land if you have to. Flight following is good as the controllers should tell you where the cells are, a line of cells, etc. They can be very helpful. Be careful!
 
I plan on VFR flight plan, as well as flight following. The plane also has a Garman 750 with weather. I know the weather lags by upwards of 10 minutes, but it is something.
 
Scattered doesn't bother me from a flight planning standpoint. I plan the flight, and if there are no storms, or if the radar indicates scattered, I launch, trying to aim for the thinner areas of convective activity. In flight, I use cell data, ADS-B, and my eyeballs to identify any build-ups and adjust my course accordingly. If I can't get around safely, I land until the storm(s) pass.

Realistically, here in the South, convective activity is an every day occurrence, so you have to deal with it if you want to fly between March and October.
 
There are such differences possible with "scattered tstorms".

Most of the days with sct TS that I deal with require zig-zagging and sometimes widely circling the destination ie even approaching it from the 'other side' in order to complete the flight.
I have also been blocked by them when they coalesced into unpredicted, no-longer-scattered tstorms, ie a 120nm line. (no problem, just set down and wait)
I have been in sct TS that became so close together with no path through to make me land 60miles off the direct track to await safe passage.
Last month I was on a 250nm trip that required upon departure an immediate, 90° deviation from the desired track, for 50 miles, in order to get away from nastiness along the route...but once past I was easily able to continue.

Also, the ones I see are mostly "storms with good vis and maybe even clear skies between" which is way easier than what I have seen in the upper midwest / great lakes where it is low ceilings and vis between the scattered storms due to very high humidity.

Consider also if there is lateral movement (worse than stationary) and if there is rapid growth or if they are relatively static in size when looking at them.

No way would I cancel a flight 5 days in advance for weather.
 
drotto said:
I plan on VFR flight plan, as well as flight following. The plane also has a Garman 750 with weather. I know the weather lags by upwards of 10 minutes, but it is something.
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Your eyeballs will tell you a LOT more than XM or ADSB weather. Radar tells you where it's raining now (or maybe 10 minutes ago) not where it's going to rain in 15 minutes, or where cumulus is towering.
 
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drotto said:
I plan on VFR flight plan, as well as flight following. The plane also has a Garman 750 with weather. I know the weather lags by upwards of 10 minutes, but it is something.
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XM weather should be used only as a "big picture" type of tool. Do not use it to squeeze a 2-mile gap between level 5 cells. I use to give myself an idea of whether I'll deviate left or right and to what amount. That's about it.

If you're VFR only, use it to keep yourself heading to VFR areas within your gas limit.

We can sit here and give you tips and ideas all day long but you'll never truly learn until you go out and do it yourself. Just remember what I said: Always have a way out to safety.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
.

Also, the ones I see are mostly "storms with good vis and maybe even clear skies between" which is way easier than what I have seen in the upper midwest / great lakes where it is low ceilings and vis between the scattered storms due to very high humidity.
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IMO, this is critical. Bumbling around in poor visibility in the vicinity of thunderstorms is a no-go. I'll only play "dodge the storms" if I can actually see the storm(s).
 
The advice about always having a way out is the key. Take that advice all the way to the beginning. You'll hear people say that you should plan every landing as a go-around and every instrument approach as a missed approach and then, if conditions end up being favorable, you can decide to go to plan B which is actually landing. Do the same thing with flight planning. If it's an important trip, plan to drive. Then, an hour before your planned departure time by car, decide if you can go by plane. Definitely don't commit to a flight five days before, and don't commit to canceling a flight that far in advance either, unless it's really a critical trip and the distance doesn't allow you to drive it. If the trip is just for fun, then you can wait even longer and decide to go by air after you preflight the plane.
 
Five minutes. A weather radar guru told me that, when I asked how fast can a block of clear air transform into a thunderstorm. Worst case. I'm on the east coast, where they build fast, form lines, and persist.

If they start appearing like popcorn, have a place to sit down and regroup. Out west, my experience was usually of slow, majestic builds, lot's of room and time to consider. When I got back east, I found they hunt to kill, often in large, imbedded packs. I figured out that taking off on the leading edge of a cold front was real sketchy, too.

So, as everyone else said, scattered is fine, as long as you can see them. And watch your back, don't let your retreat path get cut-off either. If there isn't a big, big gap you can run to, call it a day. . .
 
I realize I am likely being over cautious, but it is my nature (despite the fact I fly). Like I said, I am fully aware long range forecasts stink. The scattered thunderstorm thing is a question I have had for awhile. I am in the east and about 50% of the summer the weather will say scattered storms possible, like the currently do for this coming weekend. For now the entire weekend is listed as humid, sunny to partly sunny with scattered shows or thunderstorms possible. From my experience this means a localized quick hit storm has maybe a 10% chance of happening.

The difficult thing is trying to plan with passengers, and gently warning them the trip may not happen.
 
drotto said:
I realize I am likely being over cautious, but it is my nature (despite the fact I fly). Like I said, I am fully aware long range forecasts stink. The scattered thunderstorm thing is a question I have had for awhile. I am in the east and about 50% of the summer the weather will say scattered storms possible, like the currently do for this coming weekend. For now the entire weekend is listed as humid, sunny to partly sunny with scattered shows or thunderstorms possible. From my experience this means a localized quick hit storm has maybe a 10% chance of happening.
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I don't know where in the east you are but in the mid-atlantic T-storms are a daily occurrence. One of the best ways to avoid them is to fly early in the morning and be finished by noon. If you are going to fly in the afternoon, use your eyeballs to avoid rain shafts, use flight following, and strategically (not tactically) use your XM weather/ADS-B weather to avoid the worst of the build-ups. Scattered thunderstorms are temporary in any given location, so landing and waiting it out for a bit can work out too.
 
drotto said:
The difficult thing is trying to plan with passengers, and gently warning them the trip may not happen.
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If it makes you or your passengers feel any better, airliners can't fly through thunderstorms either.

Honestly, don't worry about your passenger's feeling in that regard. They made the decision to join you on the trip. If it happens, great, if not, no biggy. In my experience, summer T-storms may delay, rarely cancel trips.
 
Didn't realize how fast a storm could develop until I was coming back on a flight the other day. Was supposed to be perfect weather, with maybe a few scattered clouds ~7,000 ft. The skies were clear and calm, but then about half way back I started to see cumulus clouds ahead. They looked like they were far apart and high, so I figured they were the 7,000 scattered I was expecting and wasn't worried. Shortly after I got under them, though, I started feeling updrafts... it was so bumpy, and occasionally I was actually gaining/losing hundreds of feet at a time. I was having a hard time staying under the Bravo, so thankfully they ended up clearing me into it, which alleviated a lot of my stress.

When I got back on the ground, I had a text from one of the pilots I met with at my destination asking if I got back OK... she said she had seen some "interesting looking cumulus" over in my direction and was worried. Out of curiosity, I looked at the METAR and TAF and they were still reporting scattered at 7,000 (the clouds were not scattered and were much lower) and nothing about rain or a storm. The winds, which were supposed to be calm, were gusting to 16 kts. I went ahead and filed a PIREP, and the rain started falling on my way home. It only stormed for a few minutes and then the skies cleared back up... go figure. Definitely crazy how fast it just popped up like that, and it hadn't even been on the forecast.

Here's a picture I took from my car before leaving the airport (can actually see a little Cessna entering in the pattern... top right). Less than an hour earlier, I had been in clear skies.
upload_2016-8-9_9-31-44.png

Definitely time to start on my instrument rating! :)
 
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I think that's PP in that little Cessna! :eek::rolleyes:

sorry, don't know what made me do that...
 
What usually happens with weather is you fly towards a front and begin to overtake it. Now if its scattered T storms you might be able to navigate around them. If not, you land and wait for the storms to pass. Usually does so in a day or two. Then you can proceed. Seldom more than two day wait.
 
drotto said:
I am planing on doing trip this weekend of about 2 hours VFR. I know long range weather stinks. Hell short range weather can stink. At this point they are projecting scattered showers and thunderstorm possible. Five or so days out is this enough to scrub the trip yet? Even if the weather is predicting a possibility of scattered TS, how many would still plan on flying (remember this is VFR)? My passengers are well aware that safety is my first consideration.
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5-days out things can change. if it were me I'd leave the plans intact until 36-48 hours out. if no change at that point I'd scrub. which of course means that the day of your flight will be CAVU.
 
Cajun_Flyer said:
Didn't realize how fast a storm could develop until I was coming back on a flight the other day. Was supposed to be perfect weather, with maybe a few scattered clouds ~7,000 ft. The skies were clear and calm, but then about half way back I started to see cumulus clouds ahead. They looked like they were far apart and high, so I figured they were the 7,000 scattered I was expecting and wasn't worried. Shortly after I got under them, though, I started feeling updrafts... it was so bumpy, and occasionally I was actually gaining/losing hundreds of feet at a time. I was having a hard time staying under the Bravo, so thankfully they ended up clearing me into it, which alleviated a lot of my stress.

When I got back on the ground, I had a text from one of the pilots I met with at my destination asking if I got back OK... she said she had seen some "interesting looking cumulus" over in my direction and was worried. Out of curiosity, I looked at the METAR and TAF and they were still reporting scattered at 7,000 (the clouds were not scattered and were much lower) and nothing about rain or a storm. The winds, which were supposed to be calm, were gusting to 16 kts. I went ahead and filed a PIREP, and the rain started falling on my way home. It only stormed for a few minutes and then the skies cleared back up... go figure. Definitely crazy how fast it just popped up like that, and it hadn't even been on the forecast.

Here's a picture I took from my car before leaving the airport (can actually see a little Cessna entering in the pattern... top right). Less than an hour earlier, I had been in clear skies.
View attachment 46963

Definitely time to start on my instrument rating! :)
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wow.....looks a lot like the gulf coast during hurricane season in the afternoons.
 
Scattered? I don't. Here in the Midwest it's chance of scattered TS 4 out of 5 days from April through September
 
Well, flight is scrubbed now anyway. Flew today, and after landing noticed the nose gear actuator is leaking. Granted I had bad landings today, but I doubt that is what caused it. Still ticked at myself.
 
MAKG1 said:
Your eyeballs will tell you a LOT more than XM or ADSB weather. Radar tells you where it's raining now (or maybe 10 minutes ago) not where it's going to rain in 15 minutes, or where cumulus is towering.
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Right!

If you're eyes down on your XM/ADSB/iWhatever while navigating VMC around CBs....

56410d1404743925-how-use-car-dealership-survey-leverage-get-better-deal-youre-going-have-bad-time.png
 
midcap said:
wow.....looks a lot like the gulf coast during hurricane season in the afternoons.
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Trivia time! What US city gets the most rain? (hint gulf coast)


Mobile Alabama! Seriously.
 
EdFred said:
Scattered? I don't. Here in the Midwest it's chance of scattered TS 4 out of 5 days from April through September
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Same in many parts of the country.

"Scattered" tells me I might have to deviate a bit or maybe even make an unscheduled fuel stop/coffee break until some cells pass.
 
Depends on the year of course, but so far Hilo is in the lead (MOB top 10) and I didn't see Sitka listed. Many on the top 25 are along the Gulf Coast. Remember, I said rain, not snow and rain. ;)

Cajun like your avatar, I need to go back & read your post again w/ all those crazy pics
 
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drotto said:
I am planing on doing trip this weekend of about 2 hours VFR. I know long range weather stinks. Hell short range weather can stink. At this point they are projecting scattered showers and thunderstorm possible. Five or so days out is this enough to scrub the trip yet? Even if the weather is predicting a possibility of scattered TS, how many would still plan on flying (remember this is VFR)? My passengers are well aware that safety is my first consideration.
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If they are , "Widely Scattered", I fly. Anything other than that I stay on the ground. In Florida, especially in the summer, a severe thunderstorm can develop in 10 t0 15 minutes.

Cheers
 
Isolated and Scattered I'll deal with if I'm VMC or have actual radar. If I'm IMC, the student wants to be IMC or I have to be IMC and no radar it's a GIANT NO!!!. I get the , "We have ADS-B or We can use ATC/FSS" or the "I'm tired of waiting all day to not fly because your to picky" during training. In the airline it's the passengers complaining.

I've actually almost had a blanket party on a crew I commuted on. The two pilots almost had 10 pilots and their flight attendants about to beat them for taking off through a squall line.
 
MAKG1 said:
No. Astoria, OR gets more, and last I checked, Oregon was in the lower 48. The Gulf Coast may be soggy, but there are temperate rainforests along the northwest coast. Not many cities there, but Astoria is one.
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Take it up with the people who did the study. I promise you, they care WAY more than I do.
 
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