How do those hurr forecasters work?

[Let'sgoflying!]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

Just wondering how they are able to predict a 90d right turn on Wilma.
And how they do it... .the jet seems far away, there is a blocking high but it is well to the northern states, (maybe the closely spaced isobars over Tx?)
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/data/progs/hpc_24_fcst.gif
they seem to think it will follow the weak stationary front?

 

[wsuffa]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

Just wondering how they are able to predict a 90d right turn on Wilma.
And how they do it... .the jet seems far away, there is a blocking high but it is well to the northern states, (maybe the closely spaced isobars over Tx?)
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/data/progs/hpc_24_fcst.gif
they seem to think it will follow the weak stationary front?

Dave,

Look here at the forecast discussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[Alan]

I've been watching the predicted tracks for Wilma the past 2-3 days. The variety of tracks change. Often. Every time the site is updated all the lines go somewhere different than before. I do not believe there is much chance of a specific accurate prediction.

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

Thanks Bill

A LARGE AND STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I think this means the upper low pressure to the NE is forecast to draw the system in that direction?

This is the only comment I noted that discusses steering of Wilma.