How can it be fixed...

EdFred said:
No wind? In west Texas? Bwhahahaha.

Figure a 30kt headwind heading to ABQ. That 120 kt plane that was going to take 4:20 is now going to take 5:45 and that doesn't include stopping for fuel. Even that 150kt plane is going to take 4:20 in that headwind. If you are doing 500 mile trips, you want nothing less than a 150kt bird. Now, finding a 150kt bird that is going to grow with your family for a week...you're narrowing it down quite a bit. Like down to a handful of planes, and a Mooney probably isn't going to be one of them.
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When prethinking about going on a trip out west, I always calculated a 20 knot head wind going West from Ks over ABQ but during flight planning and the actual flights often it was 10-15 knots. However one time it was 65knots direct head wind (in my Cherokee 140) and I had to spend the night in a hotel as I couldn't get to the next major airport without running out of gas. Ground speed of 65mph. I should have paid attention to the SIGMET and landed right away.

That is when I decided to buy a Comanche. A Comanche is more than enough airplane to fly anywhere in the USA. I got a Turbo it was a bit over kill as I seldom fly above 10-11k'.
 
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DavidWhite said:
No real missions, other than a run to KC for BBQ. Lots of lunch runs/beach runs, and it's a chick magnet.
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Dave, anytime you can, stop by Wichita and text me I will meet you at the airport and take you to some great BBQ and Hamburger places in Wichita. I'm self employed, just give me a call before you take off and I usually can manage it.
 
EdFred said:
No wind? In west Texas? Bwhahahaha.

Figure a 30kt headwind heading to ABQ. That 120 kt plane that was going to take 4:20 is now going to take 5:45 and that doesn't include stopping for fuel. Even that 150kt plane is going to take 4:20 in that headwind. If you are doing 500 mile trips, you want nothing less than a 150kt bird. Now, finding a 150kt bird that is going to grow with your family for a week...you're narrowing it down quite a bit. Like down to a handful of planes, and a Mooney probably isn't going to be one of them.
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Would that push you up into turbos/twins in most cases? Would any of the commander 112 or 114s fit that mission?
 
You gotta bet on the westerlies, especially during Nov-Feb, but we get a surprising number of calms and easterlies too. Unfortunately, some of them are on the return trip.
 
supernovae said:
Would that push you up into turbos/twins in most cases? Would any of the commander 112 or 114s fit that mission?
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It would push me to vacation on the coast. :D

Generally winds are higher as you go higher, so a turbo wouldn't do much in that case. Neither would a twin. You could step up to a 180kt plane, but you aren't going to like the fuel bills.
 
Tony_Scarpelli said:
That is when I decided to buy a Comanche. A Comanche is more than enough airplane to fly anywhere in the USA. I got a Turbo it was a bit over kill as I seldom fly above 10-11k'.
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Trade? :D
 
EdFred said:
It would push me to vacation on the coast. :D

Generally winds are higher as you go higher, so a turbo wouldn't do much in that case. Neither would a twin. You could step up to a 180kt plane, but you aren't going to like the fuel bills.
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no one likes fuel bills..

Commercial would be $1400 round trip for 4 at the cheapest rate i can find...

What single would be 180kt guzzler? :)

How about something like this?

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/detail...+Piston/1971/Piper/Comanche+260C/1592677.html

not quite 180kts though..
 
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supernovae said:
Would that push you up into turbos/twins in most cases? Would any of the commander 112 or 114s fit that mission?
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I am a big turbo fan. Take the ABQ trip mentioned and say the jet stream is low as it often is in the winter. Fly out to Lubbock about 6K, then climb to 8K until maybe Anton Chico, then about 10K to get in.

Coming back take it up to 17K and let er rip. Not uncommon to find a 50 Knot push up there. That helps the trip averaging a lot. In fact using a turbo can easily beat your no wind speeds when considering a round trip.

Of course I usually end up with a headwind both directions, but I digress.

Commanders are really nice aircraft. Useful load isn't usually all that great. If you give the group a mission and budget you'll get lots of answers.
 
I'm in the 150-155 range with my Comanche between 5000 and 8000, and burning between 11.4 and 14 depending on altitudes, temps, DA, etc... I'm leaned about as far as I can go. I can push it to 160 if I find the right altitude, and want to burn an extra 2-3 gph.

The Comanche is much more comfortable for me than a Mooney. I did a flight review in a 20J and was banging my head on the door/roof, and had my arm jammed into my side. After an hour I was more than ready to get out.
 
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DavidWhite said:
I usually do Rockport or Port Aransas because the airport is actually right on the beach. Rockport is better for food, Port A is better for beach. It's about 40-45 minutes.

Here's Wednesdays vict......err passenger.
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She's cute.
 
I sat in KSmooniacs J model and couldn't fly it safely and there was not enough room for Scott to get in next to me. I would have felt comfortable if I could have strattled the console and controlled it like a gocart.

My loss, maybe when I was 30... I like too much pasta and pizza I guess and not enough bicycling and exercise. I probably cannot sit right seat in a Matrix....
 
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wabower said:
Well, that sure as hell changed after you bought it.
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Yep, but she is no longer, hasn't been in quite some time; in fact, tomorrow morning I head down to get her annual and some finish up engine work going so I can have up here in March.:D I got a good deal, I tried to give a good deal, but people wanted to steal. I don't need to be stolen from, nor do I need to be insulted by people who don't even bother to look at condition and only see dollars. I wasn't looking for a plane when I bought this one, but I sure as heck wasn't going to walk away from it, planes in this condition are rare as hens teeth and somebody else already spent the big dollars that are required with these old girls. As I said early on, if I die with or in this plane, I'm just fine with that. Funniest thing is the NAAA evaluator just keeps on climbing on it at about $10k every 6 months....:dunno:
 
Call the president of NAAA and tell him you'll take $20k less than the most recent "valuation" and see if he'll take it. When he then directs you to the differences in varying terms used in the business, you'll have a better appreciation of the value of your self-performed evaluation.

Henning said:
Yep, but she is no longer, hasn't been in quite some time; in fact, tomorrow morning I head down to get her annual and some finish up engine work going so I can have up here in March.:D I got a good deal, I tried to give a good deal, but people wanted to steal. I don't need to be stolen from, nor do I need to be insulted by people who don't even bother to look at condition and only see dollars. I wasn't looking for a plane when I bought this one, but I sure as heck wasn't going to walk away from it, planes in this condition are rare as hens teeth and somebody else already spent the big dollars that are required with these old girls. As I said early on, if I die with or in this plane, I'm just fine with that. Funniest thing is the NAAA evaluator just keeps on climbing on it at about $10k every 6 months....:dunno:
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Yahbut it sounds like a baby Mustang on climb-out. After that, who cares unless you're in it?

Tony_Scarpelli said:
This burns about 20 gph, 1/3 more fuel, climbs faster for the first 8000' but is slower and less range than a 260TC Comanche I have.
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PilotAlan said:
Yep. There are LSA out there for less than $60k (and not heavy ultralights, but tube and fabric VFR birds).
http://www.x-airlsa.com/

But people buy the composite/EFIS/IFR equipped, fast looking birds for $130k instead. Or they get a $90k bird and option it to $130k.

Even XAir had to sexy up their bird to get people to buy. It was plain VFR minimum equipment (think a modern Piper Cub), but they had to add an EMS.
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Part of the problem is people see that kind of plane and say, "Well, I could get this for $60k. Or I can get a new Accord for half that, and it will get me + 3 + cargo pretty much anywhere I want to go faster than that and in more comfort, and cheaper."

It gets to the point where you better be flying because you love it to the extent you can sacrifice a lot (or because you've happened to do very well for yourself), because it just doesn't make any sense from any other perspective. And really that is why you're seeing fewer and fewer pilots these days.

I imagine the Accord has a higher vNE to boot.
 
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wabower said:
Call the president of NAAA and tell him you'll take $20k less than the most recent "valuation" and see if he'll take it. When he then directs you to the differences in varying terms used in the business, you'll have a better appreciation of the value of your self-performed evaluation.
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I wouldn't take it anymore, she's not for sale.
 
rcpilot said:
It gets to the point where you better be flying because you love it to the extent you can sacrifice a lot (or because you've happened to do very well for yourself), because it just doesn't make any sense from any other perspective. And really that is why you're seeing fewer and fewer pilots these days.
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Yeahbut, my neighbor across the street thinks I'm rich because I have a $35k 1966 Piper Cherokee, while he's two pickups, two ATVs, a dirt bike, two snowmobiles, a custom chopper, and a gunsafe whose contents could buy my Cherokee by itself.

None of that makes sense from any other perspective. No different, just different toys.
 
I'm not convinced anything needs to be "fixed". In the beginning aviation was a wondrous thing that captured the hearts and minds of just about everyone in the world but seemed to have absolutely no practical purpose whatsoever. Yet there were still people who pursued it.

General aviation is a wide field that contains many different facets. A great deal of it boils down to just sport or hobby and therefore is never going to make financial sense. It's not possible to compare aircraft manufacture with automobile manufacture because of the difference of scale. The automobile industry is just exponentially larger than the private aircraft industry.

It's common to hear complaints about the regulatory burdens but we have to realize that flying through the air is more complex than driving across the land. The experimental sector is doing fairly well but it's not a replacement for certificated aircraft. The intent of an experimental aircraft has always been for the owner (the experimenter) to build and operate it. They've stretched the rules to where there are widespread kits available now but still, it's not the same thing as someone purchasing a certificated aircraft to fly his family around in.

A good example is the recently released NTSB report on the crash of the Galloping Ghost at Reno. Due to the fact that there were dozens of HD cameras filming the incident and because there was no fire all the bits were laying there on the ramp to be collected and examined it's one of the most comprehensive conclusions I've read. It shines a light on the experimental sector because all sorts of things had been done that are just completely outside of the norms that certificated aircraft follow.

So experimental is not for everyone, it's not the answer to the dilemma facing GA. Nor is LSA which, in my opinion, is about as much a dud as the previous Recreational Pilot classification.

I've been involved in GA for over 40 years and it has been pronounced dead several times during that period. It isn't exactly what it was in 1960 or in 1980, it continues to evolve but it'll be whatever people want it to be because the majority of us aren't in it to make money, we are in it to enjoy ourselves. The experimental category is alive and well, so is the antique/classic category but the notion that the private airplane is gonna be like the private automobile - I'm not sure that was ever a viable thing.
 
Just calm down, when the Moller sky car is released next year, it's going to revolutionize the industry.
 
http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html definitely shows 2010 was a bad year.. pilot certificates down like (26%) crazy while there was a slight bump in students.. I'm willing to bet cost was a huge reason for that.

Since we can essentially agree that scale is a big factor in costs, is there any way to scale up engine production to keep those down or normalize them a bit? And do you guys think jeta is the answer? Would standardizing on that work or is mogas the best bet?

I have a feeling we're definitely teetering on the proficiency edge where accidents are bound to Increase because people just don't want to spend the money to keep current and looking at some fields with 7+ dollar gallon fuel I can see why..
 
I look at it like this:
I could go buy a nice brand new car for $125k
Or I could buy a nice 30-55 year old trainer type (172, PA-140/180)airplane, and have about $75k left for gas and Mx.
Or I could go out and buy a new LSA.
All 3 of which would simply be "toys"
But the 30-50 year old airplane would be the most useful one of the bunch.
Because the car, I wouldn't drive much, except on long trips.
The LSA I wouldn't be able to take on long trips.
The 172, PA-28-140/180, would suit just fine for covering all the bases. good for puddlejumping, and pattern work, as well as trips of ~600nm one way.
 
I think you need to find another hobby or resign yourself to the economics of this one. The number of active pilots will decrease by 50% during the next 10-12 years due to age attrition. Plane prices will decrease accordingly, many more will be scrapped. Fuel, labor, maintenance and other costs will be market-driven as well, but expect the manufacturers to simply discontinue supplying parts rather than sell them cheaper. Thinking that the production of any components, especially the big-ticket items, will ever increase is the all-time long shot. Who will be around to need them?

Whatever it is that you plan to do in aviation, you'd be well-advised to get on with it as it's not likely to get any better other than if you're planning to buy a plane. If so, just plan to live for a long time and you'll be able to buy whatever you want for pennies on the dollar. Whether or not you'll be able to fly it remains to be seen.

supernovae said:
http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html definitely shows 2010 was a bad year.. pilot certificates down like (26%) crazy while there was a slight bump in students.. I'm willing to bet cost was a huge reason for that.

Since we can essentially agree that scale is a big factor in costs, is there any way to scale up engine production to keep those down or normalize them a bit? And do you guys think jeta is the answer? Would standardizing on that work or is mogas the best bet?

I have a feeling we're definitely teetering on the proficiency edge where accidents are bound to Increase because people just don't want to spend the money to keep current and looking at some fields with 7+ dollar gallon fuel I can see why..
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Two biggest reasons for high prices are insurance (people keep suing manufacturers) and volume.

How many planes did Cirrus sell last year? How many cars did Ford sell last year?

Sell planes on the level of cars and prices will drop, even with the insurance costs.
 
wabower said:
I think you need to find another hobby or resign yourself to the economics of this one. The number of active pilots will decrease by 50% during the next 10-12 years due to age attrition. Plane prices will decrease accordingly, many more will be scrapped. Fuel, labor, maintenance and other costs will be market-driven as well, but expect the manufacturers to simply discontinue supplying parts rather than sell them cheaper. Thinking that the production of any components, especially the big-ticket items, will ever increase is the all-time long shot. Who will be around to need them?

Whatever it is that you plan to do in aviation, you'd be well-advised to get on with it as it's not likely to get any better other than if you're planning to buy a plane. If so, just plan to live for a long time and you'll be able to buy whatever you want for pennies on the dollar. Whether or not you'll be able to fly it remains to be seen.
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That's not an outlook I look forward too.. I guess if this is the outlook I'd better buy 2 or 3 planes to use as spares..
 
bluerooster said:
I look at it like this:
I could go buy a nice brand new car for $125k
Or I could buy a nice 30-55 year old trainer type (172, PA-140/180)airplane, and have about $75k left for gas and Mx.
Or I could go out and buy a new LSA.
All 3 of which would simply be "toys"
But the 30-50 year old airplane would be the most useful one of the bunch.
Because the car, I wouldn't drive much, except on long trips.
The LSA I wouldn't be able to take on long trips.
The 172, PA-28-140/180, would suit just fine for covering all the bases. good for puddlejumping, and pattern work, as well as trips of ~600nm one way.
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You can get much less expensive ground "toys". I paid less than $4k for a motorcycle with more power than the plane I'm flying now. It's not the fact that you *can* spend a bunch of money if you want, it's that the minimum entry cost is simply too high for most people for something that's merely a toy.
 
Today was a good day. Lowes was supposed to deliver a new dishwasher but it seems it won't arrive until tomorrow so they can't deliver it until Monday. Darn, I was soooo looking forward to installing that thing.

Plan B - drove to the airport and took the Champ up for an hour to warm up the oil for a drain and change. Gorgeous afternoon with low winter sun, high clouds and just the right amount of haze to make everything look like a mystic scene out of Lord of the Rings. Afterwards I changed the oil and worked a bit on the Luscombe. Lots of folks out flying today, Skydivers and gliders at my airport were buzzing.

Believe me, General Aviation (i.e. private aviation) is never going to "die"
 
The other major factor that has always limited GA is the lack of practicality. There is only a small range of applications where GA has any practical value, that is why so many people quit either during training or shortly after getting a PP. Once the fun or challenge of learning goes away, you need some reason to keep flying.
 
Interesting that this conversation started yesterday and today's business section of local wipe features a big article about wage growth going backwards. Maybe it's even worse than we thought for high-end recreational stuff.

supernovae said:
That's not an outlook I look forward too.. I guess if this is the outlook I'd better buy 2 or 3 planes to use as spares..
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wabower said:
Interesting that this conversation started yesterday and today's business section of local wipe features a big article about wage growth going backwards. Maybe it's even worse than we thought for high-end recreational stuff.
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Depends what you consider, "high end". More orders for Mega Yachts >260' than ever.
 
Henning said:
The other major factor that has always limited GA is the lack of practicality. There is only a small range of applications where GA has any practical value, that is why so many people quit either during training or shortly after getting a PP. Once the fun or challenge of learning goes away, you need some reason to keep flying.
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Which is why my flying is recreational soaring and I drive or take the tube for everything else. GA would be in better shpae if we sold it as fun, flying around looking at stuff instead of the magic carpet sham. Dunno how to do that, make everyone get a glider license or start in a floatplane first. The advertisingmoney is in the boring expensive stuff and the people that would rather write about flying then fly or more inclined to the boring.
 
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