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EdFred

EdFred

Taxi to Parking
Joined
Feb 25, 2005
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30,286
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Michigan
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Display name:
White Chocolate
Yesterday FAs and TAFs were not even remotely close.

OVC050 = SKC ?
 
Same as they were on the redboard last week. LM SW LWR MI and KGRR. ;)

And sorry, the well it was still a VFR forecast doesn't really cut it for me. Forecasts of OVC035 is technically VFR, but if I cancel a flight lesson, because I don't really feel like doing manuevers with only a 1500' block, and then it ends up being SKC, something is wrong.
 
EdFred said:
Same as they were on the redboard last week. LM SW LWR MI and KGRR. ;)

And sorry, the well it was still a VFR forecast doesn't really cut it for me. Forecasts of OVC035 is technically VFR, but if I cancel a flight lesson, because I don't really feel like doing manuevers with only a 1500' block, and then it ends up being SKC, something is wrong.
Click to expand...

Then don't cancel based on a forecast... :skeptical:
 
Global warming predictions for 20 years out are thought to be accurate when predictions for tomorrow can't be done with any accuracy?:mad2:
 
Weather forecasting is amazingly accurate. Weather is so complex that it can only be described with chaotic mathematics. Yet forecasts are often right on, even where I live, where forecasting is particularly difficult because of the confluence of multiple forces.
 
KGRR
FM011800 35008KT P6SM BKN025 <---This never even came close to happening.

FM012000 35008KT P6SM BKN025= <---Neither did this.
 
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Lake-driven cover and precip seem to be almost impossible to predict reliably. Today I was planning a brief hop to top off my tanks with cheap fuel at a nearby field and decided to get a LockMart briefing. I got read the following just-issued FA as part of it:

S HLF LH/SE LWR MI...BKN035 TOP 060 LH. BKN045 TOP 060 MI. BECMG
0204 SCT035 SCT100 MI. OTLK...MVFR CIG.

as well as some TAFs that were all pretty much in the same ballpark. The METARs in the area all seemed to bear out the FA, except that PHN was reporting lower MVFR but still with unlimited visibility. After launching I hadn't gone more than 5 miles before scattered snow spritzes started popping up all over the place and the vis as well as the ceilings headed down toward the low side of MVFR. I started tuning in all of the local ATIS and AWOS stations I could think of but none of them reflected what I was seeing. It was only a few miles to my destination, it was good VFR behind, so I pressed on cautiously, spring loaded to do a 180. I came very close to doing that when I found myself having trouble keeping traffic of another aircraft in the pattern because of poor vis. Then things cleared a little, so I landed, finished my errand and got the heck out of there back to home base.

BTW I had realised that I was being given a useless briefing when the briefer demonstrated a total lack of knowledge of the local environment ("looks like you're under high pressure, no AIRMETs or adverse weather conditions!") and so I asked for specific METARS and whether any radar returns were showing up. He reported no echoes within 100 miles other than a flash or two south of DTW, so it seems all this popped up without warning.

Such is Michigan weather.
 
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scottd said:
Pilots that rely solely on a FSS briefing are fooling themselves in my opinion. There are so many more products that are not utilized by FSS, but do add important details that can (at times) fill in the holes that are left after a standard briefing.
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I've had some of the better briefers tell me as much, in so many words. I don't rely on FSS for wx unless I'm away from my computer, like I was today. I could have gotten the same information from WSI at KVLL but decided to let him read it to me to save a few minutes.

The only thing I wonder about is how recent and sensitive his radar data was. WSI has mosaic and site radar at 5 minute intervals and I'll never know whether I could have seen what was building if I'd ducked inside for a minute.

I'm not good enough yet with Skew-Ts to discern precip type, so even internet access wouldn't have helped me. Anyway with the surface temp at 1C, unless there was an inversion from the surface I'd have been concerned about a melt-refreeze scenario in flight even with plain snow. So if I'd had any idea there was widespread precip, it would have been a no-go.
 
EdFred said:
Yesterday FAs and TAFs were not even remotely close.

OVC050 = SKC ?
Click to expand...
I'm glad they blew it. We had a Wings of Mercy flight scheduled for Monday from TVC-ARB-ERY-TVC (Traverse City to Ann Arbor to Newberry to Traverse City), and it sure looked like getting into ARB could be problematic from the TAFs available Sunday evening. Looked like scud running at best, as icing would keep us from filing.

Monday dawned, as you noticed, CAVU, and stayed that way but for a little patchy scud in the east. The flight was a piece of cake, though we did have to duck under a 13 hundred foot ceiling (about 50 feet thick) getting into Newberry.

John
 
scottd said:
I was assuming you were talking about the morning hours based on the FA that was issued at 1045Z

SRN LM SWRN LWR MI...BKN050 LYRD 140. ISOL -SHSN. OTLK...VFR.

Here's the terminal forecast issued at 1720Z...

KGRR 011720Z 0118/0218 35007KT P6SM SCT150
FM020700 01004KT P6SM SKC=
Click to expand...

I need to make my flight decisions by 10am local. A post noon-issuance does me no good. I've given up on trusting any forecasts.
 
EdFred said:
I need to make my flight decisions by 10am local. A post noon-issuance does me no good. I've given up on trusting any forecasts.
Click to expand...

when did you start?

Pastcasts and PIREPs!
 
scottd said:
Then what do you use to make a go or stay decision? :skeptical:
Click to expand...

I look at current data, and data that has already been observed (generally) to the west of my route. Sat photo loops, radar loops, temps...

But if the NWS can't get a forecast correct 4 hours out, there's no point in believing them for 6 or 8 or 12 hours out.
 
I look at everything available. Forecasts, radar, AIRMETs, current and recent METARs, PIREPs, soundings, and non-aviation stuff like the NWS forecast discussions. I've found the forecast discussions to be especially valuable. They make me aware of alternate possible scenarios to the ones predicted in the TAFs and FA, and also clue me in to how confident they are in the going forecast (which is sometimes: not very). Even when the weathermaker of concern is a synoptic system, timing is often very uncertain as it might slow down or speed up, or saturate the lower levels sooner or later than expected. The forecast discussion sometimes says e.g. that the latest observations suggest the system might be starting to gather speed, even when none of the forecasts reflect that.
 
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