GFS MOS prediction question

[mikegreen]

So I am looking at weather for the Dayton-Columbus-Morgantown areas for a paws-n-pilots flight on Sunday morning, from MGY-AXV-MGW and back to MGY.

Here is the GFS MOS prediction as of now (from http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KCMH&state=OH )

This the HPC's surface analysis for Sunday at 12z

(from http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicw...g&arrval=4&vtime=Sun_12Z&ptime=Sun_00Z&ntime= )

Here are my questions:
Why are the ceilings forecast to be so low? I would think the high pressure coming from the NW, and the precip moving to the east (looking at this, too http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html )- would diminish the moisture in the air enough to provide a little less cloud coverage.

What am I missing? I've gone thru some of Scott's avwxworkshops.com stuff, but nowhere near as much as I need to...

Does the trough coming from the NW mean its bringing moist air?

Its a VFR flight, btw.

regards,

Mike

 

[dmccormack]

LOTS of moisture on the ground due to heavy snowfall. Warm temps today resulted in melting. Cold temps over warmer, moist air equals...?

I've done that flight in the other direction (MGW-MGY-MGW).

 

[poadeleted20]

Northeasterly flow brings moisture off the lakes and saturates the air.

 

[dmccormack]

Northeasterly flow brings moisture off the lakes and saturates the air.

North easterly flow??

Lake effect snow which would affect the route of flight would be North or possible Northwest winds.