COVID Vaccine (2)

Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by X3 Skier, Nov 18, 2020.

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  1. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach

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    Correct, she was able to return back to the office in 10 days. This occurred a few weeks ago, so it's been 3+ weeks since her positive test. Never a symptom from her or anyone in the house. She had a DVT back in college which is what led her to discovering she had the blood clotting factors. She knows the specific clotting factors and is well versed in a few of the blood thinners as she had to inject herself in the stomach area daily while pregnant for 8 months straight for each of our two children. She's a trooper.
     
  2. Matthew Rogers

    Matthew Rogers Ejection Handle Pulled

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    We are only talking confirmed child deaths, so can’t look at the entire us population. And you can’t look at the entire child population because they have obviously have not all been infected. So yes, it is obvious that I am talking about CFR.

    However the number of 1:1,000,000 deaths is quite obviously and blatantly false because we have already had more deaths than that with only a fraction of the population infected. It is about how you can skew the conversation with an incorrect “fact”. Right? 1:1,000,000 looks significantly different and less concerning than the final figure that will perhaps be 1:85,000 to 1:190,000 total population of children dead assuming 100% infection. This is an estimate based on the child case fatality rate of 1:8550 with a 10-20x rate of undiagnosed infections.
     
  3. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    Well, 20% of cases are asymptomatic, so if she is otherwise healthy, not a big suprise that she had no symptoms. For a while, it wasn't clear whether asymptomatic cases are actually able to spread the virus. We now know that they can, but interestingly in some of the korean outbreak investigations, the secondary cases brought on by asymptomatic spreaders all had mild or asymptomatic disease themselves.

    Its a weird disease for sure. There may be a 'inoculum effect' where those who get a larger load of virus at the time of initial infection (and get it deeper into the lungs) suffer more severe disease than those who may have only gotten a small droplet into their upper airway. That may explain why we lost so many young* EMTs and cops early in the epidemic. They may have been exposed to higher doses without the benefit of proper PPE.

    Another oddity is how this appears to kill filipino nurses at a number out of proportion to their representation in the nursing profession. That may just be an artifact of the distribution of filipino nurses who staff many hospitals in NYC, the large texas cities and california metro areas. But it could also point to some genetic factor.

    From those patients we imaged at different points in time (through the ER and later in the ICU), it appears that once the disease sets up shop in the lung, it doesn't really spread. It creates these round 'blotches' of abnormal lung. If we seen them later, they are about the same size but the lung tissue inside is filling up with goo.






    * 'young' in the context of covid, most of them were in the 40-60 age bracket which is old for a cop or FF but young for a covid inpatient
     
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  4. danhagan

    danhagan Pattern Altitude

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    We do a TON of infertility work at my business and am very familiar with what she is having to go through self injecting. We warn the patients with clotting disorders that are using anticoagulents to improve pregnancy rate that they are at risk after delivery while non-pregnant for DVT. A lot of reproductive endocrinology centers turn the Lovenox-Heparin off after delivery and don't warn the patient.
     
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  5. SoonerAviator

    SoonerAviator Final Approach

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    Yeah, I don't recall her specific clotting factors (some random set of letters/numbers she can rattle off at-will, lol). She doesn't use the Lovenox-Heparin injections except when pregnant (which we are hopefully done with now) and when she knows she will be sitting for long periods of time (flying). She did some injections on the 14-hr flight to Dubai and back, as well as wearing some of the compression clothing as a precaution. There's some fairly substantial risk regarding Estrogen birth control to those with certain clotting factors as well, from what she has told me. She works in OB/Gyn, so I get to hear the full gamut even when my eyes are glossed over, lol.
     
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  6. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I, for one, really appreciate it when medical professionals (and others with relevant expertise) share what they know. I'm sure that I'm not alone in that.
     
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  7. Lindberg

    Lindberg En-Route

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    I haven't the time right now to respond to all of your post, but I think this statement is key. It jumped out to me as I would but have expected a professional treating this disease to make such a statement.

    According to the CDC, the death rate is 660 x higher for an 85 year old, and 16 x lower for a 10 year old, than for an 18-29 year old. So statistics like it kills 1% of the people who get it are not only not useful, but also potentially misleading.
     
  8. Lindberg

    Lindberg En-Route

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    The relevant stats are available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
     
  9. Lindberg

    Lindberg En-Route

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    When someone talks about motor vehicle fatality rates in a community, for example, it's not limited to only people who were in accidents. CFR isn't a useful metric for discussing relative risk.
     
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  10. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I am confused about the discussion about death rates. I fail to understand why this is of interest since as noted by PlasticCigar, one has three choices, Vaccination, catch it and recover (or not) or both. If the discussion is to understand the risk of dying from not being vaccinated, this is well understood by anybody who cares to know by accessing readily available data.

    Me, it is really simple, choose vaccinate or don’t vaccinate. If one catches the virus, there is a non zero demonstrated risk of dying regardless of age, conditions or any other factor and a clear indication of actual long term damage vs a very effective set of vaccines that may have a potential effect long term. I’m vaccinated already since I think there is a minuscule chance of adverse effects long term. I don’t particularly want to die (again) or wind up in the ICU. Others may choose not to be vaccinated and either have zero effects because they don’t get infected or don’t have any symptoms or in the worst case, die. Death rates and ICU Rates are not zero and the magnitude is irrelevant to me since dead is dead and getting the 95% effective vaccine is an acceptable risk. As the man says, “You pays your money and you takes your choice”.

    BTW, I haven’t grown a third eye as of today:cool:.

    Cheers
     
  11. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Non-political and keep it that way... just the first controlled study I’ve seen on outpatients receiving the hydroxyclorioquine, Arithromyacin, and Zinc combo.

    Also not surprised. Wife’s hospital started doing it in Apr/May. (They were part of a test, but I didn’t see if it’s this one.)

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304258

    And don’t screw up the thread with the politics either. Posted for the study/stats nerds to pick at.

    Probably should the damn drugs if you’re headed home with symptoms for quarantine, kids. Lower hospitalization, lower fatalities. Ignore the politics and media on this one.

    Numbers.
     
  12. weilke

    weilke Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    That is not a controlled study. That is Zelensky reporting on his experience with his patients. Nothing new, he has been trying to peddle this since April.

    Has nothing to do with the vaccine issue.
     
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  13. PeterNSteinmetz

    PeterNSteinmetz En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Had a patient once who had her pusher come in to give her heroin through the central line placed to treat the infection caused by her substance abuse. After an entire night of trying to figure out the cause of her delirium, including an emergency trip for a flouroscope guided spinal tap, the intern discovered the real story.

    Sad case of bad addiction. The pusher wanted to be sure to keep her addicted because she was a beautiful young woman and valuable to pimp out.
     
  14. wayne

    wayne Pattern Altitude

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    One of our nephews is dating / living-with a woman with lupus. At first they were concerned about her COVID risk with lupus. Then found out those with lupus are not having a much lower risk of COVID than the general population.

    Guess what they take for lupus. Hydroxyclorioquine. So they already have it in their system.
     
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  15. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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  16. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Same being reported for sarcoidosis patients both on hc and steroids. (Rarely at the same time.) Also holding for a number of other immune modifiers.

    Surprising considering most are well into “big time co-morbidity” territory.

    Seems like anything that mellows the immune over-reaction is generally better than nothing.

    On the flip side the medical folks are suggesting caution on the vaccines due to possible autoimmune reactions for most autoimmune disorder patients. However one sarc person out of a group of five digits has done it without autoimmune reaction, but with a definite “didn’t feel good for a while” reaction in a Phase 3 trial.

    Not exactly statistically significant but we all said congrats. She had some incredibly high risks so... good for her.

    As far as why I brought it up, vaccines are lovely — but you still have an enormous logistical problem of distribution to solve. Tons of people are going to still catch this thing long before an approved vaccine can be distributed widely.

    Might as well pay attention to the outpatient options and numbers as closely as the vaccines.

    They won’t be fast. Months minimum. A few “essentials” will be offered it first. Take a while.

    Thanks for the background on the “study”.

    It does still anecdotally match what we’re seeing in the autoimmune groups. Most on these drugs and immune modifiers aren’t having the fatal over-reaction.

    The other interesting reaction is a “not only no but hell no” reaction from the majority of the TM group after the UK trial may have triggered TM in a coupe of recipients.

    Most TM patients would take death or other long term ***treatable*** issues over any chance of additional neuro damage and resulting permanent pain or paralysis. TM has no treatment. A very large percentage try would rather die than risk a worse case of TM.

    (Just passing on the general feel of that group. Not trying to be a downer. TM really is that bad.)

    There will also be a lot of fascinating things learned in five or so years I bet, from how autoimmune patients’ bodies reacted to it.

    Sarc group is all over the map, generally happy about the continued news of lower reactions on virtually every drug normally prescribed, but usually depending on amount of existing lung damage, that changes how wary the person is of all of it.

    In other words a subset that knows they already don’t have any real lung capacity to catch a cold, much less Covid, the flu, anything.

    The fascinating one has been the TM crowd though. Nearly violent reaction. They want that side effect fully investigated and that whole one shut down hard if TM is a true unexplained risk factor.

    That’s how much none of them want to see any of you have that as a side effect. They’re truly angry at that possible side effect.
     
  17. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Fascinating interview with head Moderna guy.

    Points out the vaccine may keep you from getting sick but no data yet on whether it stops you from spreading the virus.

    Therefore... the concept is... could be useless as a way back to “normal”. You won’t die but you’ll still kill someone else who hasn’t gotten it or the vaccine yet.

    I find it interesting he’s going out of his way in interviews to limit product liability like that.

    Can’t decide if brilliant or crazy. Wonder if the lawyers came up with that one before he met the press.

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/moderna-boss-says-covid-shot-not-proven-to-stop-virus-spread/

    Plays right into the human selfishness of the “I’ve got mine. Good luck suckers.” types of personalities.

    Could make for some entertaining nasty human behaviors.

    I’d like to think it’s just a researcher saying “no data” but seems a bit odd since most interviews are scripted and coached these days.

    Or a masterful social engineering move to get tons to want it “immediately” upon release. Me first. Me first.

    If it’s that he’s definitely brilliant. Right up there with Jobs and Musk. LOL
     
  18. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

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    I’ll defer to the medical professionals but I have always thought ANY vaccine protected you, not anybody else from you transmitting an Illness to them, especially if you had been exposed very recently to whatever you been vaccinated against. So this is not anything new to me. If I’m wrong, I’d like to know. No clue how you prove you can’t transmit after vaccination.

    So far I haven’t infected anybody that I know of:D

    Cheers
     
  19. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Or maybe he's just saying the truth. They didn't study that aspect as yet, or don't have enough data to say one way or another. When enough people ask the same question, you will start to be pro-active and answer it.
     
  20. Matthew Rogers

    Matthew Rogers Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Most viruses are not nearly as infectious as COVID (or Measles) so if you stop your own body from producing a lot of virus, you effectively prevent transmitting that virus to another person. Plus without the common immune responses like sneezes, running nose, coughing, vomiting, etc you are less likely to spew any virus to another person.

    But even with Measles, I think the vaccine effectively prevents a person from becoming a vector of Virus transmission, and that virus is an absolute nightmare for community transmission. The problem is that we still only have a 70% effective vaccine for measles, so it really does require that everyone get vaccinated for it to prevent the spread to those that the vaccine did not manage to protect. Anything less than complete vaccination and you have outbreaks like happen in my town last year among the college swim team and spread to the townspeople. Anti-vaxxers don’t help prevent measles.
     
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  21. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    There's been a lot of study with the various chloroquine compounds, by themselves and in combination with other compounds. There's probably some slight improvement, but not enough improvement in enough people to justify the risks of the side effects. If a compound is very effective at improving a condition, it is apparent with a small number of patients. A compound that is less effective needs a larger number of patients in order to see the benefits. The human trials involving chloroquine trials started in China around March. They tested these compounds because they showed activity at a cellular level when they had a SARS outbreak a few years ago, but stopped testing when that epidemic ended. They started the tests again with this new virus, saw chloroquines had in vitro activity, and moved to human trials with the same ambiguous results we see- same studies showed patient improvement, and others didn't. There have been many studies of these compounds, with many people, and there still isn't a clear improvement in COVID outcome suggesting that there is only a slight improvement. The article cited in the quoted post is a small study
    Here is a recent article that says hydroxychloroquine doesn't do much:
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...source=articlePDF&utm_content=jama.2020.22240
    So maybe one of the other compounds studied provides better protection? Maybe another zinc chelation compound would work better?
     
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  22. Bell206

    Bell206 Final Approach

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    Curious. If a person had gone through a covid infection and naturally acquired all the applicable antibodies, would there be any "conflict" between the RNA vaccine mechanism and those natural antibodies? And if one should have those existing antibodies is there any benefit to taking one of the RNA vaccines?
     
  23. chemgeek

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    We won't know for sure how well COVID vaccines will work in terms of preventing infection until they are in widespread distribution. In primate challenge studies, the mRNA vaccines (Moderna and Pfizer) both prevented infection as well as disease. The AstraZeneca (Ad26 viral vector) vaccine prevented disease but not nasal viral replication in primates. But primate proxies are not humans. It seems likely the vaccines shown to be highly effective so far will be able prevent infection (and spread) as well as disease, but it is still early times. But gaining personal protection is a very big deal. However, to protect the immunocompromised, it would be highly desirable to have vaccines that also snuff out broad spread. It is unlikely, however, that this coronavirus, like the other strains of coronavirus, will ever completely disappear from the population.
     
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  24. chemgeek

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    Unless there are unforeseen, deleterious consequences of mounting an enhance immune response to the vaccine by someone already partly or fully immune to COVID, there may be some benefit from being vaccinated. (But there is no experience to fall back on at present.) What we do know is that for all of the vaccine candidates tested so far, vaccinated individuals develop antibody and immune T-cell titers far higher than convalescent patients who recovered from the disease naturally. What we don't know is if there could be undesired side effects from an immune person receiving a second COVID challenge. The risk is likely quite small, however.

    For context, consider that individuals who have had chickenpox can successfully take a shingles (chickenpox) vaccine. And many individuals (me included) have had TWO different shingles vaccines. So multiple vaccination, even after naturally recovering from an infectious disease, is not a priori hazardous, and can in fact be very helpful.

    Personally, I would have no qualms about being vaccinated even if recovered from COVID naturally. You just don't know how robust your immunity will be post-infection, and there is some evidence that whose who experience mild disease from certain viral infections may not develop strong or long-lasting immunity.
     
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  25. Bob Noel

    Bob Noel Touchdown! Greaser!

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    Last edited: Nov 26, 2020
  26. chemgeek

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  27. chemgeek

    chemgeek En-Route

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    Measles is unusually contagious, with an R0 of around 12-13. COVID-19 (R0 around 2.5-3.0) is at least twice as transmissible as influenza (R0 around 1.3), for context. Bear in mind that transmissibility numbers are exponential, so twice as contagious is very significant.
     
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  28. GaryM

    GaryM Cleared for Takeoff

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    they can’t do anything to fix the botched first dosage some volunteers received, but they can at least unpool the datasets and analyze them separately. I suspect they already have. But the statistical significance will be reduced due to the smaller sample size, especially for those who received half of the planned initial dose.
     
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  29. Bell206

    Bell206 Final Approach

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    Another question or 2 if I may. I've had 2 separate serelogic (sp) antibody tests and both came back as a true positive. However, was told each time this was not a guarantee of covid immunity as it would take a different antibody test to determine long term immunity and those type tests are not readily available for use on a large scale. Has there been any movement to open up these other types of antibody tests to the larger population? And, has there been any further determinations on long term covid immunity other than what the CDC states as unknown? Thanks.
     
  30. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    That’s what I wondered looking at the “fake” study as well. The antibiotic shouldn’t be the thing that made a real difference unless it was preventing bacterial pneumonia.

    Zinc is a weird one. People swear by the stuff but it alone has never withstood any serious study either.

    Combinations like that get difficult to study quickly. But does it require the combo or a subset of two items of the three?

    It probably should be mentioned that the people taking HC like it’s candy in the sarcoid groups, some percentage are on various cocktails all the time also.

    So the news coming out of this small but often quite ill group, of unusually low cases of bad responses to Covid... turns into: Which drug or combo is it really?

    Also chuckled at the AZ screwup where giving a lower dose made their numbers significantly better. One report said they’d only be 70% effective if not for the manufacturing cock up. Ha. Not sure I want something from the gang that is hanging on by the “better to be lucky than good” mantra. Haha.

    LOL. What a mess.

    Happy Turkey Day, y’all.
     
  31. X3 Skier

    X3 Skier En-Route PoA Supporter

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    Not to mention the AZ Foulup skewed the “more effective” sample heavily toward younger people.


    Cheers
     
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  32. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    Maybe I'm not understanding your reply in the way you intended, but I wouldn't go so far as to call the study "fake" based on what I saw. The numbers are fairly small. Some of the early Chinese human studies saw similar results which weren't reflected in a larger population upon early testing.
     
  33. denverpilot

    denverpilot Tied Down PoA Supporter

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    Not the one you posted. The one I did. Folks mentioned it wasn’t controlled. I missed that. :)
     
  34. Palmpilot

    Palmpilot Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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  35. Cap'n Jack

    Cap'n Jack Final Approach PoA Supporter

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    We were discussing the same study :)

    As for Astra Zeneca, it seems "luck" plays more of a role in pharmaceuticals than we may like. Ezetimibe (Zetia) was discovered because someone submitted the compound to the wrong screening assay- total accident. I worked with the group that did the high-throughput screening for my own work. These things get discovered because of careful paperwork that puts aircraft logs to shame. It is dry, boring, work to check through all the paperwork for pharmaceutical drugs, even during early-stage drug discovery, before the FDA (or any other government agency) would have any interest.
     
  36. Matthew Rogers

    Matthew Rogers Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Everything is mild compared to measles. It has an R0 of 18.
    COVID has an r0 that is still evolving. I have seen everything from 0.7 to 5.6. The swine flu was 1.5.
    I wonder if the r0 for COVID takes into account all the protections currently in place, or it estimates the spread in a “normal” situation without masks or social distancing.

    But nobody is going to classify COVID as only mildly contagious.
     
  37. chemgeek

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    You have been informed correctly. Serologic tests measure the presence of either IgM or IgG antibodies, both of which decline with time. A positive result does not specify your antibody titer, only that some antibodies are present above the detection level. Long term immunity is conferred by memory T-cells, which are much more difficult to measure. This is not a routine kind of medical test.

    There is no way of knowing the durability of immunity to a disease which no one has had more than 10-11 month recovery time. But it does appear that immunity likely lasts this length of time, as there has not been widespread reinfection. But full immunity to other types of coronaviruses is not terribly durable. This will be a very large natural experiment, and we humans are guinea pigs.
     
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  38. chemgeek

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    R0 is estimated from Rt values in the initial phases of an epidemic, which is typically before any artificial interventions or accumulation of population immunity. In the US, most states had Rt values of 2.0-3.5 in the early days of the epidemic. This is consistent with data in other parts of the world.
     
  39. PlasticCigar

    PlasticCigar Pre-Flight

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    I’m sorry I’m not presenting things for you in a way that makes it easy to rationalize your preconceived opinion that “vaccines are bad.” That number is accurate, but feel free to spin it any way you want to make yourself feel better.

    Since you brought up misrepresentation, what I’m personally wondering is why you keep obfuscating the options and consequences, especially with respect to morbidity and mortality.

    Just to be clear - morbidity represents a disease state and mortality equals death.

    For COVID-19, the overall mortality is about 1-2%. Much higher is some groups and much lower in others. The mortality for the vaccine (as with ALL vaccines) is essentially zero. So your choice here is a zero vs non-zero chance of dying. Given that the overall mortality rate for children less than 12 is exceedingly low (which makes sense since kids don’t normally die), even a small increase in mortality from this disease is disturbing. I will personally chose the “essentially zero” chance of dying from the vaccine versus the nonzero chance of drying from COVID.

    A different issue (what you claim to have experienced from a vaccine and is obviously clouding your ability to think rationally about vaccines in general) is MORBIDITY, or disease state. Again, for adults with COVID it’s about 20% (for significant or lasting symptoms, not just transient flu-like symptoms). For children, we have a disturbing syndrome called MIS-C (https://www.cdc.gov/mis-c/cases/index.html) which has a high morbidity and, prior to this current outbreak, had already been diagnosed in over 1,000 children. I’m sure we’ll hit 1500-2000 by the end of the year. Again, 1,500-2000 kids with significant, sometimes lifelong morbidity who, without COVID, would have been perfectly healthy. To me, that’s VERY disturbing but obviously to you it’s no big deal.

    I respect your right to make your own choices, but if you’re going to accuse me of misrepresentation in order to advance your anti-vaccine agenda and your own self-delusions while insulting me professionally I don’t take too kindly to that.

    Happy Thanksgiving.
     
  40. TipTanks

    TipTanks Pre-takeoff checklist

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    TipTanks
    This thread is a gong show... but count me in as the first in line for a vaccine. How can I not? I was exposed to a bat recently, took the rabies vaccine course...no big deal but guess what? Now I don't worry about vaccines. Vaccinated for tetanus, Hep A B, whatever the childhood ones are. No issues, and I trust they work as intended. Millions of lives have been saved by people much much smarter than me by vaccines that were all new at one time. I cannot out of fear of the unknown reject medical science and risk the outcome of COVID. And beyond that, forget about getting sick, I would like to be able to see my extended family, get on a commercial flight (begrudgingly I will admit) or do anything else with the knowledge that I have a better defense against that thing. Is that alone not enough to make you weigh the risks and decide in favour of the vaccine? The likely outcome is that the vaccine works and the vast majority of people are going to be just fine.
     
    JamesA320 and PlasticCigar like this.
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