Cirrus safety vs Mooney safety

Which is the most likely to save your behind??

  • The Mooney Roll Cage

    Votes: 28 48.3%
  • The Cirrus Parachute

    Votes: 15 25.9%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 15 25.9%

  • Total voters
    58
Searching the NTSB database, there have been 30 accidents in the SR20, 13 of them fatal. There are 15 accidents listed for the DA40, with only 3 fatal.

BTW - The three Diamond fatals:

Pilot flies into power line after descending below safe altitude in IMC
Pilot flies into a lake after buzzing his buddy in a boat several times. Clearly, all types of aircraft are affected by idiots.
Pilot flies into the ocean on an instrument approach after flying from Florida to California over the course of only 42 hours (of total clock time, not flight time!) Fatigue, anyone? Oh, and he was flying an approach, at night, in heavy precip, after reporting moderate to severe turbulence earlier on that leg. :hairraise:

Oh, and the Cirrus stalls at 56 knots, the Diamond at 49. Doesn't sound like much, but it's about a 15% difference, and a 30% increase in kinetic energy to dissipate in the event of a crash.

One final thought: The Diamond not only has fuel tanks, but those fuel tanks are located between the two main wing spars (yes, there are two). Probably one of the least likely aircraft to have a tank breach - And there have been ZERO post-crash fires in the DA40. None. That's a huge survivability factor.
 
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BTW - The three Diamond fatals:

Pilot flies into power line after descending below safe altitude in IMC
Pilot flies into a lake after buzzing his buddy in a boat several times. Clearly, all types of aircraft are affected by idiots.
Pilot flies into the ocean on an instrument approach after flying from Florida to California over the course of only 42 hours (of total clock time, not flight time!) Fatigue, anyone? Oh, and he was flying an approach, at night, in heavy precip, after reporting moderate to severe turbulence earlier on that leg. :hairraise:
You are referring to three DA40 fatals. There have also been four DA20 and one HK36 motorglider fatal accidents. A fatal DA40 accident last week has not made it into the NTSB database.

Diamonds are commonly used as trainers (including the USAF academy) so utilization is probably at least as high as Cirrus and with lower time pilots. Cirrus aircraft probably have higher IFR and cross country utilization.

The DA20 and DA40 have benign handling characteristics and are probably more forgiving. Cirrus aircraft have been involved in a fair number of fatal low level maneuvering accidents.
 
I think a big part of the reason the DA40 is "safer" is that for about the same wingspan it's 800 pounds lighter and stalls 10 knots slower. That's a lot less energy than a Cirrus.

Mari,

I was comparing the DA40 to the SR20 (which isn't as much heavier - 515 pounds - and only stalls 7 knots slower), not the more-popular SR22... But I had the same thought at about the same time you did:

Oh, and the Cirrus stalls at 56 knots, the Diamond at 49. Doesn't sound like much, but it's about a 15% difference, and a 30% increase in kinetic energy to dissipate in the event of a crash.

I also don't think its mission is quite the same. The Cirrus is much more of a traveling machine. It's 35 knots faster in cruise.

Nope - Wrong Cirrus. The SR22, sure - But my analysis was only comparing SR20 crashes. The SR20 is only about 5-10 knots faster than the DA40, and the payloads are similar.
 
One final thought: The Diamond not only has fuel tanks, but those fuel tanks are located between the two main wing spars (yes, there are two). Probably one of the least likely aircraft to have a tank breach - And there have been ZERO post-crash fires in the DA40. None. That's a huge survivability factor.

Ooooh... See the pic that Gary posted. An excellent illustration of how well-protected the DA40's fuel tanks are!
 
Turns out that the SR20s are flown three times as often as DA40s, and so the per trip and per hour accident rate for SR20s is lower than the DA40s.

OK - I just made that "three times" part up. The point of the above being that accidents normalized to "fleet size" is a statistic only of value to insurers. Fleet size normalization would work for aircraft that are comparable in the missions flown, but the DA40 and SR20 seem different enough (to the pilots flying them) that the latter are likely to see a higher utilization factor.

Ummmm... Bull****.

The DA40 and SR20 are only 5-10 knots different in cruise speed, and less than 50 pounds different in payload. Their missions are nearly identical. I doubt there's any difference at all in utilization between the two.

If you have REAL statistics to back up your assertion, I'm all ears. But making stuff up as you've done above doesn't add anything to the discussion.
 
See, you can't get a Cirrus partisan to think straight to anything but his already drawn conclusion.....No tanks.
 
You are referring to three DA40 fatals. There have also been four DA20 and one HK36 motorglider fatal accidents. A fatal DA40 accident last week has not made it into the NTSB database.

I'm aware of the latest one - But I'm not aware of the latest Cirrus accidents, so I left it to what's in the database, as I discussed in my previous post.

I'm also trying to keep this an apples to apples comparison - I know, this thread is SO not apples to apples! But, that's why I'm not comparing the DA40 to the SR22, and I'm not comparing the SR20 to the DA20 or HK36.

Thanks for posting the DA40 wing picture - That's an excellent illustration of the design.
 
Are you angling to be a sales rep for Diamond? :rofl:

Well - If I was gonna sell airplanes, I think Diamond is the company I'd want to work for!

I'm the world's crappiest "salesman" - I can only "sell" products I truly believe are the best. I couldn't work for just anyone selling things. But I could definitely sell Diamonds. :yes:
 
Yabut which one is less ugly?:wink2:

Mari,



Nope - Wrong Cirrus. The SR22, sure - But my analysis was only comparing SR20 crashes. The SR20 is only about 5-10 knots faster than the DA40, and the payloads are similar.
 
Ummmm... Bull****.

The DA40 and SR20 are only 5-10 knots different in cruise speed, and less than 50 pounds different in payload. Their missions are nearly identical. I doubt there's any difference at all in utilization between the two.

If you have REAL statistics to back up your assertion, I'm all ears. But making stuff up as you've done above doesn't add anything to the discussion.

Sigh. You make stuff up about them being flown on comparable missions then demand others prove your made up assumption is false! Yeah, that makes sense. How come you get to make things up?

(By the way, I do appreciate the effort you took to look up the number of accidents and fleet sizes for each aircraft type.)
 
Sigh. You make stuff up about them being flown on comparable missions then demand others prove your made up assumption is false! Yeah, that makes sense. How come you get to make things up?

(By the way, I do appreciate the effort you took to look up the number of accidents and fleet sizes for each aircraft type.)
Gloves and humor are now off, Jim. You're the only one with totally fabricated information in evidence. "flown three times a much". Yeah. Pulled out of your __ss.

Get real.
 
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Yeah, but you have an unfair advantage since you already know Ralphie. Annual sales just to him would exceed your quota.
Well - If I was gonna sell airplanes, I think Diamond is the company I'd want to work for!

I'm the world's crappiest "salesman" - I can only "sell" products I truly believe are the best. I couldn't work for just anyone selling things. But I could definitely sell Diamonds. :yes:
 
Cirrus fanboy.




:D

Hah! :rofl:

Actually, generally I don't bash the Cirri. They're nice airplanes. They did a pretty good job making a plane that's easy to fly - In fact, the only major safety problems I see with the *airplane* relate to crashworthiness. I think Cirrus reps oversell the airplane a bit, and with the number of non-pilots they sell to, I wonder how many of them realize there is such a thing as a "no-go" decision.

The rest of it is the fault of the pilots - But by making such a safety-oriented airplane, Cirrus seems to have lulled their pilots into thinking that THEY don't need to be safety-oriented too.

Yabut which one is less ugly?:wink2:

The one that only has one wing on each side. :rofl:

The Cirrus isn't a bad-looking plane, as long as you ignore the abrupt, square split between the two different airfoils they used.
 
Jim admitted in his post that he made up that number to prove a point. Even I don't hold it against him.

In my opinion the DA40 is the safest general aviation piston airplane. The available data backs that up. It has got to be the most fun to fly four seat technically advanced aircraft. I love the centerstick and the incredible view. Fly one and you will understand why Flyingcheesehead and I are so fanatical about it.
 
Sigh. You make stuff up about them being flown on comparable missions then demand others prove your made up assumption is false! Yeah, that makes sense. How come you get to make things up?

YOU are the one who made something up, not me.

I pointed out that there aren't any significant differences in performance between the two, which would indicate that they have similar missions. If you can come up with some reason as to why airplanes with such similar missions and performance would somehow be used differently, I'm all ears.

(By the way, I do appreciate the effort you took to look up the number of accidents and fleet sizes for each aircraft type.)

You'll find that I really like data... And here's some data for you:

The best way I could think of to compare usage data was to look at airplanes for sale. So, I set up a spreadsheet (they're gonna have to send me to Spreadsheets Anonymous pretty soon) and entered the year and TTAF for all of the SR20's and DA40's on a popular aircraft sale web site. It should be a representative sample, with over 40 aircraft of each type.

The results: Cirrus SR20's fly an average of 132 hours per year, Diamond DA40's fly an average of 124 hours per year - Less than a 10% difference. (Mmmm, data. My favorite.)

Not NEARLY enough to explain away double the accident rate, and nearly quadruple the fatal rate. :no:
 
In my opinion the DA40 is the safest general aviation piston airplane.

When making such statements, it's important to emphasize passive vs. active. I believe you mean passive. Active safety features would generally go unreported, since the pilots then land without issue after a problem occurs.
 
I don't know about the statistics, but it seems to me that there are a lot more DA-40s being used as flight school trainers than Cirri. I know that one local flight school leases three of them on a regular basis for Air Force Flight Surgeon contracts. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those DA-40s flew quite a bit. The Cirrus aircraft might be doing a lot more flying with private owners, but I'd think that the DA-40s might be doing more takeoffs and landings in the training environment. I don't have any proof though...

Ryan
 
When making such statements, it's important to emphasize passive vs. active. I believe you mean passive. Active safety features would generally go unreported, since the pilots then land without issue after a problem occurs.
I mean that fewer people manage to kill themselves in DA40s for what ever reason. There appear to be fewer crashes, both fatal and nonfatal. Perhaps more conservative pilots choose Diamonds or it is much easier to fly safely. Who knows? That was not the reason I chose to buy one but it is reassuring. I better not get too cocky before I bend one myself.
 
Jim admitted in his post that he made up that number to prove a point. Even I don't hold it against him.

I didn't either - I remember how I felt about the latest greatest shiniest thing when I was a student pilot - but then he said this:

Sigh. You make stuff up about them being flown on comparable missions then demand others prove your made up assumption is false! Yeah, that makes sense. How come you get to make things up?

In my opinion the DA40 is the safest general aviation piston airplane. The available data backs that up. It has got to be the most fun to fly four seat technically advanced aircraft. I love the centerstick and the incredible view. Fly one and you will understand why Flyingcheesehead and I are so fanatical about it.

Exactly. As I've said several times lately - The DA40 isn't perfect, no airplane is, but Diamond really knocked one out of the park with it. Great airplane, and it has already provided me with lots of :):):)'s. :yes:
 
I don't own stock in Cirrus or Diamond (or Mooney), never flown in any of them, and don't have a dog in this show. But in trying to determine what the differences are between the Diamond DA40 and the Cirrus SR20, I came across some interesting material, starting with this marketing brochure from Cirrus comparing the specs, features, and costs of the two (gosh, can you imagine which came out looking like the better deal?):

http://www.whycirrus.com/compare/pdf/cirrus-vs-diamond-da40-xls.pdf

On the other side of the ledger, we have Diamond touting its safety (click on "Judge for yourself..." link):

http://www.diamondaircraft.com/why/safety.php

Diamond claims either 0.16 (text) or 0.208 (chart) fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours. (A more useful metric than accidents per fleet size.) By comparison, they claim the average GA fatal accident rate is 1.27 per 100,000 hours. Their rate compared to the GA average is quite remarkable. They can thank the quality of their pilot population.

But wait! Here is what Cirrus claims:

http://www.whycirrus.com/safety/cirrus-history.aspx

All Diamond Single Engine (SE) planes are claimed to have twice as many accidents (fatal and non-fatal) per 100,000 hours than Cirrus!

So what about fatal accidents per 100,000 hours? I could not find it there, but this article makes some claims:

http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/SafetyHowSafeIsACirrus.aspx

Cirrus has between 1.42 and 1.76 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours. The article also claims average GA fatal accident rate is about 1.19 per 100,000 hours. Since the period covered by the Diamond stats above and this author are likely different, the average rates would be expected to be similar but not identical (1.27 vs 1.19).

So are there statistics that can tell us something about the Cirrus pilots who had fatal accidents? This article attempts to determine where myth and fact reside:

http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/Safetylessonslearned.aspx

Quoting some highlights:

  • General experience:
"Surprisingly, high-time pilots are involved in more than half of the Cirrus fatal accidents. Critics of Cirrus Design often complain about the marketing to newbie pilots, so they expect a rash of accidents involving low-time pilots. Not so."​
  • Time in type:
"About half of the fatal accident pilots had less than 150 hours of experience in an SR2X. Two fatal Cirrus accidents occurred during training, one during transition training and the other during primary training of an experienced helicopter pilot."​
  • Poor weather decision making:
"Weather is a huge factor in Cirrus accidents [...] Two-thirds of Cirrus fatal accidents involve bad weather (IMC), including low ceilings, fog, icing and thunderstorms."​
  • Failure to use CAPS:
"My estimation is that 30% of the fatal accidents had a high probability of success if the pilot had pulled the CAPS handle; overall 23 of 41, or 56%, had a high-to-middle level probability of success"
 
YOU are the one who made something up, not me.

My post's style was semantically equivalent to beginning it with "Hypothetically, if...." (I had actually considered writing it that way.)

If I had made it up I wouldn't have said in the same post it was a hypothetical in order to demonstrate the possible erroneous assumption you were making!

By the way - nice research on the TTAF values from online used-aircraft listings. Very clever. The only thing I could think of prior to seeing your post was to somehow record the Hobbs hours of a random sample of aircraft by physically going to them. But in any case, you've made a good case to me with plausible statistics.

Yes, Diamond does seem to have a much lower fatal accident rate. But WHY?

I also noted a couple years back when I considered someday building an RV-9A that there had never been a fatal accident in that model (I was later corrected - someone told me privately that the test bed for the RV-9A crashed with fatalities. Ah, here it is: http://www.rv-9.com/prototype accident.html)

Do some aircraft seem to attract a better class of pilots? Or are remarkably more forgiving of flying mistakes? Or easier to land and take off?
 
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But in trying to determine what the differences are between the Diamond DA40 and the Cirrus SR20, I came across some interesting material, starting with this marketing brochure from Cirrus comparing the specs, features, and costs of the two (gosh, can you imagine which came out looking like the better deal?):

http://www.whycirrus.com/compare/pdf/cirrus-vs-diamond-da40-xls.pdf

Wow... That is so far off it's not funny.

First, there's the blatant falsehoods:
* 75% cruise performance of 137 KTAS - I get 139-140 on less than 75%, on an older, slower, non-XLS bird.
* 700 fpm sea-level climb and 450 fpm at 6,000 feet: Right out of the performance tables in the POH, sea-level climb is 900 fpm and at 6,000 feet it's 600 fpm. Yes, that's at gross weight, and based on my experiences so far, maybe even a little conservative.
* 10.7 gph at 6,000 feet? Only if you're running awfully rich. I get more like 8.5 gph at 6,000.
* 12.8 nmpg - Hmmm. 8.5 gph and 140 knots is 16.47 nmpg.
* Dual alternators not available? Wrong again. And on the Diamond, the 2nd alternator comes with air conditioning, too.
* "Robust/Fault-tolerant electrical system" not available? Funny, I have more backups on the DA40 than a Cirrus does, with easy load-shedding via the Essential Bus, and the completely isolated oh-**** backup Emergency switch & batteries too.
* Separate baggage door not available? Well, I guess technically you could say that and consider it the truth, since Diamond's separate baggage door can be used to load people, but come ON. :rolleyes:

And then, there's the stuff that's misleading at best:

* Front seats not adjustable - Well gee Cirrus, your rudders aren't adjustable either!
* 56 gallons vs. 50 gallons usable fuel. Hmmm, I see that they don't point out the difference in fuel burn at all...

Of course, I don't expect Cirrus to actually tell the whole truth in a comparison between the SR20 and the DA40XLS - They'd probably never sell another SR20. Not that it's a bad plane - But the DA40 is better.

Diamond claims either 0.16 (text) or 0.208 (chart) fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours. (A more useful metric than accidents per fleet size.) By comparison, they claim the average GA fatal accident rate is 1.27 per 100,000 hours.

The problem with all of the "per 100,000 hours" statistics is that it's a guess. Nobody really knows how many hours each type is flying. I think my comparison of TTAF's is about as close as you can get to reality.

All Diamond Single Engine (SE) planes are claimed to have twice as many accidents (fatal and non-fatal) per 100,000 hours than Cirrus!

Shocking. :rolleyes2: Again, it's a guess.

  • Time in type:
"About half of the fatal accident pilots had less than 150 hours of experience in an SR2X. Two fatal Cirrus accidents occurred during training, one during transition training and the other during primary training of an experienced helicopter pilot."​

True of pretty much any type. Time in type is one of the most reliable indicators of pilot safety, and that's why your insurance cost goes down significantly once you have a reasonable amount of time in type.

  • Poor weather decision making:
"Weather is a huge factor in Cirrus accidents [...] Two-thirds of Cirrus fatal accidents involve bad weather (IMC), including low ceilings, fog, icing and thunderstorms."​

Probably a huge factor in all accidents, unfortunately - Though I have no doubt that Cirrus is probably higher than average because they market their planes and train their pilots in a way that would tend to make them feel invincible, IMHO.

  • Failure to use CAPS:
"My estimation is that 30% of the fatal accidents had a high probability of success if the pilot had pulled the CAPS handle; overall 23 of 41, or 56%, had a high-to-middle level probability of success"
[/QUOTE]

I would agree that there are a lot of situations where CAPS would have saved the day - but the red handle didn't get pulled. (There are a number of NTSB reports that state that the locking pin was not removed from the red handle - Which is pretty much item #1 on the Cirrus preflight checklist. The chute's pretty useless if you can't pull it when the time comes. :frown2:)

The problem is, it seems that people allow themselves to get INTO a situation that would require the chute by using the chute as one of their outs in their preflight decisionmaking. Then, when it comes time to pull the chute, they realize how stupid of a decision that was, and they don't pull it, they try to save the plane when it's already too late. I think there's other psychological factors involved as well - For example, to pull the red handle, you first need to admit to yourself that you're no longer in control. That's a very difficult thing for a lot of pilots.

My post's style was semantically equivalent to beginning it with "Hypothetically, if...." (I had actually considered writing it that way.)

Probably a good idea for you to try that next time, so you're not misunderstood.

If I had made it up I wouldn't have said in the same post it was a hypothetical in order to demonstrate the possible erroneous assumption you were making!

If you think I'm making an erroneous assumption, best to prove it with real data instead of made-up data.

By the way - nice research on the TTAF values from online used-aircraft listings. Very clever. The only thing I could think of prior to seeing your post was to somehow record the Hobbs hours of a random sample of aircraft by physically going to them. But in any case, you've made a good case to me with plausible statistics.

Thanks - I think that's probably about as good as we'll get with these stats, unless the FAA starts requiring A&P/IA's to send them each airplane's TTAF each year after the annual.

Yes, Diamond does seem to have a much lower fatal accident rate. But WHY?

That's a question that nobody can definitively answer. But, there are a multitude of possible answers:

1) Diamond doesn't sell their airplanes as being the ultimate transportation solution - Result: It's easier for a Diamond pilot to stay on the ground on a bad-weather day, since they don't have the expectation that "the plane will get me there."

2) Diamond doesn't have a chute. Yeah, this should not adversely affect safety, but it sure seems to. Some of the Cirrus accident reports are just mind-blowing when it comes to reliance on the chute.

3) More forgiving. Diamond has a long wing with a high aspect ratio that results in excellent glide characteristics, and stalls slower. That means less energy to dissipate in an accident. Also, the Diamond's tail surfaces are much larger, and the handling qualities are excellent. It's a really nice-flying airplane.

3a) Since it's such a nice-flying airplane, Diamond pilots might be more likely to do more hand-flying, keeping them more proficient for when the gadgets fail.

4) Once you've gotten yourself in a crash - Diamonds don't burn (see aforementioned discussion of the tank design). Cirruses do. I think that's a LARGE part of the high incidence of fatal accidents with respect to total accidents on the Cirruses.

Other than that, the two airplanes really have a lot in common, so it's hard to come up with other reasons why there is such a disparity in the safety record. :dunno:
 
I like the DA40. Too bad you're stuck with the stick in the pax lap. I'm really not a fan of that.

When are they going to push the DA50 out the door??? That will be a really nice plane, and will be very compelling if they get a decent diesel in there.
 
I like the DA40. Too bad you're stuck with the stick in the pax lap. I'm really not a fan of that.

When are they going to push the DA50 out the door??? That will be a really nice plane, and will be very compelling if they get a decent diesel in there.
I love the stick although it makes it harder to use charts. The DA50 is probably years away at best. I think Diamond put the DA50 on hold while they sorted out engine issues with the DA42 twin and working to get the D-Jet certified.
 
When is the jet supposed to be ready? I sat in a cabin mockup when LBJ was in office.

I love the stick although it makes it harder to use charts. The DA50 is probably years away at best. I think Diamond put the DA50 on hold while they sorted out engine issues with the DA42 twin and working to get the D-Jet certified.
 
Lots of airplanes have post crash fires. I know one that had a precrash fire.

Like this?
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I found an excellent introduction on the subject of crashworthiness. It was a collection of papers presented at a NATO conference. The emphasis is on helicopters (UH-60) but the general principles apply. You can download the individual papers which are about 15 pages in length.

http://www.rta.nato.int/pubs/rdp.asp?RDP=RTO-EN-HFM-113

Paper 3: Injuries in Fatal Aircraft Accidents
Paper 6: Human Tolerance and Crash Survivability
Paper 7: Basic Principles of Crashworthiness

These papers are fairly graphic. There are some anatomical references that may not be general knowledge but these reports are fairly easy to read and only require a basic understanding of physics.
 
Keeping the greasy side down is my option :D
 
I'm no expert, as I've never flown a Cirrus. I have flown a Diamond- forget exactly which one, and it was lots of fun. Very responsive, very simple with fadec controls. And I've owned a Mooney for several decades. Have no idea about the safety record of Diamonds.

Seems to me that there's a demographic self-selecting difference in aircraft purchasers. In broad generalization, the pilot who opts for a nice shiny Cirrus (a) has plenty of money, (b) is a risk-taker (c) expects stellar performance and is attracted to new and flashy (d) is confident in his abilities, dismissive of his limitations, and (e) has faith that ultramodern technology- whether glass panel or parachute- will get him out of trouble. I'd venture that those traits get people IN trouble. The guys I know who fly Mooneys, most of them, seem to be performance-oriented as well, but conservative enough to go for a metal airframe and fewer bells and whistles. It's a bit of a cult, and the old C-model Mooniac is as proud of his machine as any very-well-heeled brand-new Ovation-3 owner. But Mooney owners, maybe knowing there's no parachute, might not as likely to take weather- and terrain- risks, and put overmuch faith in 'idiot-proof' rescue devices . That's a guess. It's not parachute OR roll-cage that saves the bacon. It's a pilot who's just a little conservative when that's what's needed.
 
I'm no expert, as I've never flown a Cirrus. I have flown a Diamond- forget exactly which one, and it was lots of fun. Very responsive, very simple with fadec controls. And I've owned a Mooney for several decades. Have no idea about the safety record of Diamonds.

Seems to me that there's a demographic self-selecting difference in aircraft purchasers. In broad generalization, the pilot who opts for a nice shiny Cirrus (a) has plenty of money, (b) is a risk-taker (c) expects stellar performance and is attracted to new and flashy (d) is confident in his abilities, dismissive of his limitations, and (e) has faith that ultramodern technology- whether glass panel or parachute- will get him out of trouble. I'd venture that those traits get people IN trouble. The guys I know who fly Mooneys, most of them, seem to be performance-oriented as well, but conservative enough to go for a metal airframe and fewer bells and whistles. It's a bit of a cult, and the old C-model Mooniac is as proud of his machine as any very-well-heeled brand-new Ovation-3 owner. But Mooney owners, maybe knowing there's no parachute, might not as likely to take weather- and terrain- risks, and put overmuch faith in 'idiot-proof' rescue devices . That's a guess. It's not parachute OR roll-cage that saves the bacon. It's a pilot who's just a little conservative when that's what's needed.

You bring up some interesting points. As an engineer, I submit that it is impossible to accurately compare the safety record of different aircraft types. There are way too many control variables to account for.

You would have to account for inherently difficult to measure controls like:
  1. Type of flying any given set of aircraft that are being compared are used for and the inherent saftey differences in the type of flying that predominated (ifr vs. vfr, x-country vs. local, sporty vs. conservative, etc.)
  2. Type of pilot buyer (i.e. Do very different pilots buy a Mooney than an SR22? Do they have different levels of experience? Do they accept different levels of risk? Do they posess different levels of skills?)
You then have to ensure you normalize for fleet size and hours flown with inherently sketchy data. With a lack of reliable control on 1 and 2 and the large MOE and small sample sizes of the data we do have it's all pure and wild speculation. That's why these high horse people :incazzato:who state that they absolutely know a certain aircraft is unsafe (ie. SR22) or a certain type (i.e. experimental) are just blowing so much wind (with all due rerspect).

There is one thing I can state with certainty and it is the only statistic I truly care about. Sportsman N808AR has a 100% perfect safety record - no accidents, incidents, injuries, or fatalities. I'm just focused on ensuring it stays that way.
 
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I read in a magazine (Car and Driver?) that if you want a safer car put an airbag in the steering wheel. If you want a safer driver, remove the airbag and replace it with a dagger.


Other - avoiding the crash in the first place.

(you did ask "most likely")

Yup truer words...... for both of thos comments.
 
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