Area Forecast (FA): Its days are numbered

[LuisO]

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns14fa_comments.htm

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), in coordination with
the NWS, has submitted a notice to the Federal Register
announcing its intent to transition seven (7) Area Forecasts
(FAs), used as flight planning and pilot weather briefing aids,
to digital and graphical alternatives. A joint-agency working
group has concluded that these digital and graphical alternatives
better-meet the needs of aviation users. Guidance with respect to
the proper use of these alternatives is forthcoming.

The FA is an abbreviated, plain-language forecast of specified
weather phenomena, covering a geographical area designated by the
FAA and produced by NWS. The FA is used to determine en-route
weather and to estimate conditions at airports that do not have a
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF).

The FA contains weather information in a format originally
developed in the 1930s. By design, it carries a character-count
limitation and is prohibited from describing Instrument Flight
Rule (IFR) conditions reserved for AIRMETs and SIGMETs. It covers
an extremely large geographical area, typically, several states,
and is issued only 3-4 times daily, each valid for 18 hours.
These specifications tend to produce a broad forecast of limited
value. NWS provides equivalent information through a number of
better alternatives.

An FAA-NWS joint-agency working group recommended that the FA be
transitioned to more-modern digital and graphical forecasts,
observations, and communications capabilities that provide
improved weather information to decision-makers. The FAA will
formally recommend that NWS transition six (6) FAs covering
separate geographical areas of the Contiguous United States
(CONUS) and one (1) FA covering Hawaii to digital and graphical
alternatives already being produced by NWS.

The seven (7) Area Forecasts (FAs) affected include:

FAUS41 (BOS)
FAUS42 (MIA)
FAUS43 (CHI)
FAUS44 (DFW)
FAUS45 (SLC)
FAUS46 (SFO)
FAHW31 (Hawaii).

FAs for Alaska, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico will not be
affected at this time.

Existing potential alternatives identified by the joint-agency
working group include, but are not limited to:

- surface weather analyses and prognostic charts
- public forecast discussions
- Significant Weather (SIGWX) charts
- National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
- Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
- Airmen’s Meteorological Information (AIRMETs)

Aviators already use many of these weather products during normal
flight planning. Together, they provide information similar to
that found in the FA. The products listed above are higher
resolution and provide graphical depictions.

 

[Jaybird180]

I can forsee leveraging the data from each (soon-to-be-released) iPhone6 user's GPS 3-dimensional position and barometric pressure to determine what's happening all over the country.

Does Big-Brother have that much computing power?

 

[NoHeat]

For now, an area forecast is the only convenient place to find a forecast for tops.

I wonder if they are planning to provide a graphical forecast of bases and tops -- that would be nice.

 

[Jaybird180]

For now, an area forecast is the only convenient place to find a forecast for tops.

I wonder if they are planning to provide a graphical forecast of bases and tops -- that would be nice.

Skew-T

 

[Fredbob711]

I can forsee leveraging the data from each (soon-to-be-released) iPhone6 user's GPS 3-dimensional position and barometric pressure to determine what's happening all over the country.

Does Big-Brother have that much computing power?

Most Android phones also have built in barometers already

Sent from my Nexus 10 using Tapatalk

 

[LDJones]

For now, an area forecast is the only convenient place to find a forecast for tops.

I wonder if they are planning to provide a graphical forecast of bases and tops -- that would be nice.

+1. It should be very possible by interpreting the skewT data.

 

[ARFlyer]

Well I don't mind reading Skew-T. However, reading the FA for the top data is sometimes a lot faster.

I wouldn't mind them discontinuing the product it they release a new one for base and top numbers only.

 

[Jim_R]

I can forsee leveraging the data from each (soon-to-be-released) iPhone6 user's GPS 3-dimensional position and barometric pressure to determine what's happening all over the country.

Does Big-Brother have that much computing power?

Did you know that there have been phones with barometers in them since 2011? Not every single thing about iPhones is the pinnacle of innovation, nor is their every feature transformative and world-changing.

 

[hook_dupin]

Adding bases and tops to some form of prog chart seems much easier to use that the current FA.

 

[Jaybird180]

Did you know that there have been phones with barometers in them since 2011? Not every single thing about iPhones is the pinnacle of innovation, nor is their every feature transformative and world-changing.

I did not know that. Please provide examples.

 

[dukeblue219]

I did not know that. Please provide examples.

http://gizmodo.com/5851288/why-the-barometer-is-androids-new-trump-card

An app doing what you propose has existed since 2011 on Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ca.cumulonimbus.barometernetwork

I got the galaxy Nexus in January 2012, I believe, and it had a barometer. It's really not all that useful honestly. Barometric pressure doesn't vary THAT much over distance and there's already a massive network of weather stations that provide far more information to computer models and forecasts.

 

[RV10flyer]

I use this for almost real time tops during fairly stable conditions. It is usually really close.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=ct_us

 

[Jaybird180]

http://gizmodo.com/5851288/why-the-barometer-is-androids-new-trump-card

An app doing what you propose has existed since 2011 on Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ca.cumulonimbus.barometernetwork

I got the galaxy Nexus in January 2012, I believe, and it had a barometer. It's really not all that useful honestly. Barometric pressure doesn't vary THAT much over distance and there's already a massive network of weather stations that provide far more information to computer models and forecasts.

I guess there really is somebody as smart as me, before me.

 

[Dr. O]

Apparently the current pilot pool can barely read - especially anything containing more than 140 characters.
Let me predict that the FAA will be disappointed at the response to the diagrams and will find themselves forced to replace diagrams with animated cartoon characters with a voice over by someone famous lest our pilot pool suffer a loss of attention span.
Dora the Explorer is the perfect match up.

 

[LDJones]

Apparently the current pilot pool can barely read - especially anything containing more than 140 characters.
Let me predict that the FAA will be disappointed at the response to the diagrams and will find themselves forced to replace diagrams with animated cartoon characters with a voice over by someone famous lest our pilot pool suffer a loss of attention span.
Dora the Explorer is the perfect match up.

Maybe....but a picture is worth a thousand words. If they can convey the information needed graphically rather than textually it's probably a good change.

 

[azure]

On a different thread I mentioned the graphical winds/temps aloft interactive forecasts on ADDS that go out several days into the future. I find those MUCH more useful than the text versions and would have no problem if the text version disappeared. Instead of values applying at one time, for times 12 hours apart, at discrete points across the country, you have a much finer grid of arrows with barbs and color-coded temps, and a somewhat finer time resolution that is every hour for the first 24 hours, then every 6 hours out to about 72 hours. The only reason I still look at the text form in my briefing is because the graphical version is not yet "official" (or wasn't, maybe that's changed now).

If they can replace the FA with something as information-rich, maybe a few somethings, that would be fine by me.

 

[ARFlyer]

I use this for almost real time tops during fairly stable conditions. It is usually really close.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/rt/viewdata.php?product=ct_us

What's your easy method of converting the pressure tops into altitude ? I do like this product.

 

[B350ATP]

I have used FA's probably 3 times in my flying career. I prefer graphical depictions, and tend to look at them daily, flying or not, to maintain awareness of the weather.

This site is very helpful, I use it alot, in addition to other "tools" in the tool bag

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

 

[RV10flyer]

What's your easy method of converting the pressure tops into altitude ? I do like this product.

I print/saved and use this...

http://www.hsdengineering.com/images/ALT_PRESS_TABLE1.pdf

Remember, this is not precise, but has been close enough for keeping my family safe.

Say I want to fly vfr over the top today to the NW from PMH. I will look at ceilings/visibility/terrain along my route. I will look at sky coverage and the forecast at the destination and surrounding area. I will look at looping satellite imagery. I will look at the lifted index. I will look at the convective outlook. I will then look at cloud top pressure imagery and decide whether I should even climb to take a peek. Well, today is looking to be in the 700-900 mB range with a little green blips mixed in. Anything 600 mB and higher(pressure that is) is a go for me. Time to top the tanks and load the 24 cuft O2 bottle. Fly safe.

 

[gismo]

On a different thread I mentioned the graphical winds/temps aloft interactive forecasts on ADDS that go out several days into the future. I find those MUCH more useful than the text versions and would have no problem if the text version disappeared. Instead of values applying at one time, for times 12 hours apart, at discrete points across the country, you have a much finer grid of arrows with barbs and color-coded temps, and a somewhat finer time resolution that is every hour for the first 24 hours, then every 6 hours out to about 72 hours. The only reason I still look at the text form in my briefing is because the graphical version is not yet "official" (or wasn't, maybe that's changed now).

If they can replace the FA with something as information-rich, maybe a few somethings, that would be fine by me.

I suspect that flight planning apps like ForeFlight use the numerical winds aloft forecast data to generate ETE. Seems to me that would be far more difficult with graphical data.

 

[Palmpilot]

If I'm going to have to learn a new user interface, then I hope the benefits are worth the effort.

I do pretty much ignore the FA description of what the fronts are doing, because I find it much more efficient to look at the graphical representation on The Weather Channel Web site.

 

[azure]

I suspect that flight planning apps like ForeFlight use the numerical winds aloft forecast data to generate ETE. Seems to me that would be far more difficult with graphical data.

Not if the numerical data were still available as well (much as it is for Skew-T plots). The graphical format would be more useful for human briefings, but the numerical data could be used to calculate ETE. If the data had better spatial resolution (at least in the horizontal plane, as the ADDS charts still use discrete altitudes every 3000 feet), then the calculation could take into account finer details of wind velocity variation (though it would not necessarily be more accurate, since the data are after all a forecast).