Aircraft Accident Injury Patterns- SteveR?

AdamZ

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Adam Zucker
So SteveR I saw your post in another thread and saw that you do some kind of work with Aircraft Accidents. I also saw that your research has led you to the conclusion that you will not fly in a Cirrius "if your life depended on it"

I'm curious as to what type of research you do and what it is specifically about Cirrus aircraft that makes you feel that way.
 
So SteveR I saw your post in another thread and saw that you do some kind of work with Aircraft Accidents. I also saw that your research has led you to the conclusion that you will not fly in a Cirrius "if your life depended on it"

I'm curious as to what type of research you do and what it is specifically about Cirrus aircraft that makes you feel that way.

We focus primarily on injury patterns in our project and are putting together a large database on the subject. The goal is eventually (within a couple of years) to have upwards of 10,000 fatalities listed in the database from all manner of aircraft from homebuilt to commercial, fixed wing, helicopters, gyrocopters, etc.

It really just has to do with so far they seem (and, as I said in the previous thread we are still expanding the database, so I am speaking based on the couple hundred cases of various types of aircraft) to be more prone to fire in the event of a crash than traditional aircraft made of metal. Also the injuries that we have in our database so far seem to indicate a greater frequency of specific injury than we see in non-composite aircraft.

As I said previously, I am a scientist first and foremost and will modify my stance based up on the data as it continues to unfold. As it stands now, I think Cirrus definitely has a serious issue with their marketing (gearing the aircraft towards people who are probably more aggressive, less prone to admit when they are wrong, and often are low hour pilots) and potentially with the structure of their aircraft. One of my friends (a commercial pilot) uses the analogy of a (Ford?) Pinto to describe how he feels about the fuel system on the SR-22. Until that potential issue is sufficiently cleared up to my satisfaction, I will not fly in a Cirrus aircraft.

Also I think they tend to overplay the role their ballistic recovery system really has to offer in most real world events, in part due to the phases of flight when most accidents occur, the psychology of pilots (especially those flying their own new propeller equipped toys), etc. It might be great for the rare case of an engine failure at altitude with no suitable place to land the aircraft or a gross structural failure (loss of a wing or tail, but that is also going to be the last instinct of a pilot who may believe he is better and luckier than the next guy. The plane may not be ultimately to blame, and often isn't, but it might not make the situation any better.
 
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Who are you doing your research for? Feds, Insurance Industry ,someone else?

If there is a problem with the fuel system thats one thing but the fact that many " agressive" low time pilots may buy them really is not a problem with the plane. As Ron Levy likes to say " Too much plane to little pilot"

Also does your statement apply to all composite aircraft ie Diamonds and Columbias?
 
If, as you said on the other thread, you're only looking at information from autopsies, then at best, you're only finding out that the Cirrus occupants are deader than the non-Cirrus occupants. Since there is little comfort to be had in knowing that in a fatal accident, your corpse will be somewhat less damaged in a non-Cirrus, I don't think your findings have any merit in terms of choosing which plane to fly. I feel you will be much better served by finding ways to choose which pilot to fly with, or if you're doing the flying, to improve your own skills, knowledge, and aeronautical decision making. As I said in that other thread, I have yet to see a fatal Cirrus accident in which a comparable accident in another type was survivable.

OTOH, I agree completely that Cirrus markets to, and attracts as owner/pilots, a lot of folks who appear to evince strongly certain of the FAA's Five Hazardous Attitudes without the aeronautical experience to counter them. I also agree that the BRS has made little difference other than to allow pilots who've made very bad decisions that would be fatal in any other plane to survive the experience, although this seems to go counter to your fundamental argument. Of course, if you're only looking at fatal accidents, those cases where a pilot would have died in another airplane but lived to tell the tale of his/her foolishness because of the BRS won't show up in your database.
 
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Steve, I'll look anxiously for your findings.

If you subscribe to Flying Magazine, on Page 47 of the May 2007 issue had an interesting article titled, "When to Pull the Handle." It has a very intersting review on Cirrus accidents and use of the chute.

The article is not available on Flying's web site nor on NAFI where the author is from. I'll take a shot at posting it here. If the MC believes this inappropriate, go ahead and pull it or notify me to pull it. I'm posting it for it's relationship to the this this thread.
 
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If the MC believes this inappropriate,
We do -- it is clearly copyrighted material and I'm reasonably certain you don't have the publisher's permission to post it. Those who don't have their own copy and want to read it will have to go to a friend or the library.

Sorry...:redface:
 
I believe Steve is pointing to the really HIGH number of fires that turn the Cirrus into a lump of composite. Diamonds don't seem to fail in this mode.

Autopsy info could include CO levels in the blood- a sign that the CV system survived the crash but the occupants asphyxiated to death.
 
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We do -- it is clearly copyrighted material and I'm reasonably certain you don't have the publisher's permission to post it. Those who don't have their own copy and want to read it will have to go to a friend or the library.

Sorry...:redface:
I understandeth. I wish they would post as much on their site as AOPA.

I'll keep looking and should I find a link or contact the author, I'll post it.
 
If, as you said on the other thread, you're only looking at information from autopsies, then at best, you're only finding out that the Cirrus occupants are deader than the non-Cirrus occupants.

:D Well put, Ron. Although, as a non-doctor, I never thought about Doc Bruce's point...

OTOH, I agree completely that Cirrus markets to, and attracts as owner/pilots, a lot of folks who appear to evince strongly certain of the FAA's Five Hazardous Attitudes without the aeronautical experience to counter them.

Without a doubt. I used to think the 5 Hazardous Attitudes were bogus, dreamed up by some consultant. They really do exist-problem is the sort of folks who are the problem are likely fully aware of their attitudes, BUT THEY DON"T CARE!
 
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So, far the funding has been through my school in the form of a grant. It is my hope to find funding from any reputable source that will be willing to help me.

Since there is little comfort to be had in knowing that in a fatal accident, your corpse will be somewhat less damaged in a non-Cirrus, I don't think your findings have any merit in terms of choosing which plane to fly.

I understand where you are coming from, but at the same time I would like to remind you that it was a preponderance of autopsy data (backed up by later testing) that first pushed the automobile manufacturers to realize that shortcomings in their designs actually lead to a high percentage of the fatalities suffered in those vehicles. Granted, it has now been supplanted in that subset of injury pattern research by findings from survivors (or at least initial survivors), but the "deader than the others" is simply not giving an adequate consideration to the fact that in many of these victims did not die from one injury and many of them in fact may have survived (particularly those with thermal injuries as the proximate cause of death) if the structure of the aircraft held up better. I know of one case in North Carolina (in a Cessna by the way) that one of the persons on the plane managed to survive his injuries only to die from fire impingement upon the cockpit. Also, just because an injury is the cause of death, may not mean it was immediately fatal.

People used to believe that aortic trauma was invariably fatal (granted, it's still fatal in ~75% of cases), but people do survive and they need to be given the best chance possible. Flying in a high-tech Styrofoam cup full of 100LL is probably not giving them the best chance. It is not a chance I feel is a risk worth taking, but that's just me.


Granted, looking at those who are deceased has its limitations. I am first to admit that. However, it is the best we have at the moment and the data is more valid (when properly applied) and accepted than you are willing to give it credit for.

Also does your statement apply to all composite aircraft ie Diamonds and Columbias?

At the moment, no. I simply lack a sufficient number of cases involving these aircraft to even make a preliminary assessment.

If you subscribe to Flying Magazine, on Page 47 of the May 2007 issue had an interesting article titled, "When to Pull the Handle." It has a very intersting review on Cirrus accidents and use of the chute.

I don't subscribe, but I will find a copy of the article. Thank you for the advice.

As I said in that other thread, I have yet to see a fatal Cirrus accident in which a comparable accident in another type was survivable.

I tend to agree with this, and perhaps the nature of most of these accidents (high speed, often inverted or leaves the kind of mark only a groundskeeper would appreciate) has more to do with the oft quoted comment from you "Too much plane, not enough pilot" than with the aircraft itself. However, there are clearly issues with systems on board the aircraft that make it potentially less safe than other comparable aircraft. Does it not seem odd that when there is a fatal crash in a Cirrus, you don't occasionally have another person on that aircraft survive as occurs in some cases with other manufacturers? I will admit this is a casual observation, and I don't have enough data to say whether this relationship is truly there or not. However, it is better to look into the possibility and find out that it is not there (and then publish that data), than to simply assume that it does not and potentially cost someone their lives through inaction.

I really do value the input from yourself and everyone else on the project and my theories, for they will only make it easier to include what needs to be included and to see every side of the argument. Thank you for your dissent. If anyone else has any input, I would love to hear it.

Of course, if you're only looking at fatal accidents, those cases where a pilot would have died in another airplane but lived to tell the tale of his/her foolishness because of the BRS won't show up in your database.

OK, what about looking at it such as this: Everyone, including yourself I do believe, frequently states that the Cirrus models have a similar rate of fatal accidents. Now add in those where the BRS did deploy (which is a VERY small percentage of the accidents), excluding those where it was obviously either an inappropriate or accidental deployment. I know of two cases that would be excluded. One of these (the chute deployed on an otherwise functional aircraft in one of the European countries, France IIRC) was actually cited as a "save" by a Cirrus representative that I met once. He didn't like it that I point out that he needed to look up the definition of "save" in front of a group of potential customers.

My issue with the BRS is more with it being used to instill a false sense of security in low hour pilots who have no business being in the aircraft in question. Like I said, my choice not to fly in these aircraft is my own and based on the best evidence I have available. Everyone else is welcome to draw their own conclusions.
 
My issue with the BRS is more with it being used to instill a false sense of security in low hour pilots who have no business being in the aircraft in question. Like I said, my choice not to fly in these aircraft is my own and based on the best evidence I have available. Everyone else is welcome to draw their own conclusions.
I think you are wise not to fly in Cirri piloted by "low hour pilots who have no business being in the aircraft in question," but I would take that advice regardless of the aircraft type. OTOH, I think your data lacks sufficient validity to choose not to fly a Cirrus yourself, as the excellent cockpit layout and avionics systems may help you stay out of an accident that you might stumble into in a less-well-equipped aircraft with poorer cockpit features.

And I still don't like the way they fly, but that's personal taste, not anything related to safety.
 
I think you are wise not to fly in Cirri piloted by "low hour pilots who have no business being in the aircraft in question," but I would take that advice regardless of the aircraft type. OTOH, I think your data lacks sufficient validity to choose not to fly a Cirrus yourself, as the excellent cockpit layout and avionics systems may help you stay out of an accident that you might stumble into in a less-well-equipped aircraft with poorer cockpit features.

And I still don't like the way they fly, but that's personal taste, not anything related to safety.
I guess we shall just have to see how the data shakes itself out. I feel that your insistence upon the superior nature of the avionics does not hold water. If there was really a sufficient margin of improvement in the avionics, etc and all else were equal then explain why they are lost at a similar rate as other aircraft of a similar MTOW and other measures? I doubt it boils down to simply just the experience of pilots, but we shall see I guess.
 
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Actually, the data shows that the TAA aircraft have lower incident/accident rates then conventional aircraft for some types of causes, such as fuel exhaustion, and the better avionics are given the credit.

Conversely, they are have a HIGHER rate on other causes, among them continued VFR into IMC I believe, and the better avionics are given the blame for creating a false sense of security to an inexperienced pilot.

Based on my own experience, I am quite sure I am MUCH safer in the G1000/Avidyne airplanes than in their conventional counterparts, because I have more and better data informing my decisions.

Safety in flying, I'm convinced, is mostly attitude. A constant vigilance, dedication to "making yourself lucky" by learning all you can about yourself, your airplane, and your flight environment, and finally what Terry Pratchett calls "First Sight and Second Thoughts" - the ability to see what really IS, and the constant second-guessing of your decisions, as though you reserved a little part of yourself to watch over the rest, like an internal Check Captain.

If you have the proper attitude, all the other gadgets and knowledge get properly used, and you have the highest probability of success.

If you don't have the proper attitude, you'll make mistakes, not catch them, and build yourself a nice long accident chain leading all the way to the crash site.
 
Ron, if I read Steve correctly his decision not to fly cirri is based upon the data he has so far that leads him to think hmmmm their MIGHT be something here. It does not appear that his data is saying This is MOST DEFINITY a dangerous plane. Of course I don't want to speak for him. I was a bit skeptical myself when I read his post thats why I asked the question.

If I read Steve correctly he is not saying that Cirrius are dangerous planes to fly or that they have in inherent problem that makes them more Prone to crash ( other than the type of pilot in the cockpit) but rather if they do crash the crash may be less survivable than in other planes. In other words the subject is not so much "Airworthyness" but "Crashworthyness". Certainly an interesting subject worthy of study. Look at all the advancements made in planes over the past years that address that specific issue. We went from Lap belts to shoulder harnesses to 5 Point harnesses to airbags now in cessnas and some other planes to the BRS.

I wonder if in the Auto world when they finally put in seatbelts folks thought the same about false security as they do about the BRS. Cars used to be hunks of steel , without seatbelts and with wooden dashes that would kill. Now we have all these saftey features incluing crumple zones, better bumpers, cages for the pax compartment, reinforced roofs. It will be interesting to see where it leads if anywhere. Of course the King Daddy question is what will the cost of saftey be?
 
Adam,

When they started putting seat belts in cars they absolutely were met with skepticism. I remember riding around standing up in the back of my parents car in the early 70's, no seat belts in the back. Even in the late 80's there was a sign at my CG Air Station "You always buckle up in the air, why not on the ground?" because people were still driving around without them.

Like smoking, it can take generations to change a cultural thing. Nowadays it's the rare exception that drives without a seat belt.
 
If Steve's data included nonfatals it would have validity. As it doesn't, and only looks at fatal accidents without any consideration of cases where the accident was survived, it doesn't. As I said before, I have yet to see anyone point to a Cirrus fatal accident where the impact could be shown to have been survivable in another airplane in its class. Absent that, I think Steve's decision based on autopsy results not to get in a Cirrus lacks rational basis. It is like saying you don't want to fly in a twin because twice as many post-engine-failure twin accidents are fatal as post-engine-failure single accidents -- the data ignore the fact that only a tiny percentage of engine failures in twins end in accidents, while most engine failures in singles do.

BTW, my bachelor's degree is in ops research and I have 12 years experience as an aircraft survivability engineer.
 
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Since 1/1/98 there are 37 reports of Cirri accidents. 14 Fires, (This includes the brake overheat taxi accident in which the pilot escaped but the plane turned to a lump of carbon). 37%

The M20M had 15 reports. 3 fires. 20%

Need a few more Mooney M20M reports to get it to statistical significance. Just by Chi square the P~.08. And mind that about 50% of accidents involving fires are fatals.

The Fuel system in the Cirrus is a surviveabilitly concern. This will become quite significant in a year or two if the trend continues. We'll see.
 
Since 1/1/98 there are 37 reports of Cirri accidents. 14 Fires, (This includes the brake overheat taxi accident in which the pilot escaped but the plane turned to a lump of carbon). 37%
That's some pretty heavy breaking! Are these both the 20 and 22 or just the SR-22?

The Fuel system in the Cirrus is a surviveabilitly concern. This will become quite significant in a year or two if the trend continues. We'll see.
What's particular about this fuel system?
 
My decision is my own. Whether you think it is a bad decision in your view of the matter is irrelevant. That does not change the validity of the data for its use. If someone had written off postmortem data, we would still be driving around in vehicles with solid steering columns, rearview mirrors that are welded to the roof, or that have non-protected gas tanks.

What I find interesting is that I have been told that my research is more than valid by people who are more training and experience than yourself, and experts in injury pattern research including two of the more widely published researchers on the subject of aviation safety research. You are an engineer, not a physician, not a pathologist, not an injury patterns expert. I respect your opinion and will do everything I can in my power to take your advice and make my research useful and acceptable to everyone. However, that being said I am going to weight the advice of several PhDs and MDs, a little more heavily than a bachelors degree engineer. If you really want to see if this stacks up by looking at non-fatal data, then why not work with me to get access to that data?

I am more than happy to work with you or anyone else who can help me achieve a position where safety is improved, whether I am right or I am wrong. I have nothing against Cirrus, or the people who run it, outside of the fact that I want them to work out the issues and make their aircraft truly the safest out there which I know is the stated goal of their CEO.

And mind that about 50% of accidents involving fires are fatals.

I think that is an oversimplification. While I think the system needs investigated one would need to take into account other factors. I think this is (in part) what Ron is trying to call me on, in that he doesn't think I have thought this out in a way that can account for confounding variables. The angle and speed of impact, the orientation of the aircraft (upright vs inverted), etc must all be taken into account in these. I believe it was Ron (or perhaps Henning) that pointed out that a lot of these accidents are high speed, loss of control accidents. When conclusions are drawn, we need to keep this in mind. Bruce, feel free to message me privately if you would like.
 
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