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Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Dave Anderson, Aug 13, 2022.
You worry too much….
Why would they kill a profitable product line early. I'm sure they will be manufactured concurrently for a bit until the dust settles. I'm sure there are some other users for TEL that aren't AvGas so it's not going to disappear overnight.
Might even have inventory on-hand. JIT doesn’t make sense for every operation.
There is no other use for TEL. Av gas is the last remaining one and Innospec is the last remaining supplier. (there are some in China, but I doubt any US refiner would be willing to use them)
Avgas and gasoline in the remaining 1-2 countries that still use TEL are the only relatively high volume consumers left. Otherwise TEL is a specialty chemical with few compelling uses.
Why would any US refiner be reluctant to buy TEL from China? The fear that they'd put something *more* toxic in it? I'd bet it's easy enough to test it, and it's not like every other industry isn't sourcing parts and materials from China.
Definitely going to create some confusion and consternation in the industry for a while.
how's that working out?
It's less about China per se, than qualified supplier. Innospec is a fully qualified suppler, has environmental controls in place etc. The Chinese suppliers have none of those. Qualifying a new supplier is a long process and the oil majors just might decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
The lead plant in Liverpool is under considerable environmental and economic pressure. There's a plume of adverse impacts downwind of the plant that have been well documented over the decades. The neighbors want it gone. The owner already went bankrupt once a few years back, and re-organized.
My concern has always been that if the plant were to burn down this afternoon, they would be unlikely to be permitted to rebuild, and also unlikely to make the rebuild investment, given the short apparent remaining life of the TEL market.
I would not be so sure... this made the news last year, in October IIRC, when the two remaining countries that were adding TEL to mogas went unleaded. Libya was one of them... avgas is the sole remaining quantity user of TEL. A few ounces a year are used to calibrating octane engines, but you don't need the Liverpool plant to meet that demand.
You should take a look at it. TEL from Liverpool is clear and water white. TEL from China (Google it for images) is from dirty dishwater to inky black. Yes, there are lead byproducts that give it that poor appearance... but those are lead byproducts we do NOT want in our fuel.
Agreed. And if those neighbors ever discover fire, the plant might be gone the following day.
Maybe to cover the cost of issuing the STC and keeping track of the records.
Racing fuel for autos and marine engines still use TEL.
Not a huge market, but they are out there.
I'm curious as to why they would spin up EAGLE, and then do this?
I get that AvGas is the high volume user, I just mean that Innospec has zero financial reason to kill the product line early, environmental foes or not. It likely makes a decent profit margin, so they will want to run it until it has no further market potential, at least in the volumes currently needed. Once volumes have dropped, I'm sure they will scale it back to serve those smaller niche industries that still use TEL. Having the threat of a facility fire was always there, 100UL alternative or not. Now, they just have a slightly clearer picture on when to reduce production volumes and sunset the product line. Assuming they are tracking the AvGas market data (they certainly should be), they will have plenty of opportunity to produce necessary volumes for whatever remaining 100LL AvGas consumption is there. I don't know a thing about their lead times, but I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of the necessary supply for TEL has already been produced.
Maybe to make a profit?
That's sorta kinda how capitalism works. GAMI didn't do this as a charity. If they have a product that people need or want (like an STC), why should they give it away for free? They can charge whatever the market will bear.
Well, it's helping Walmart and others wreck our economy, and from time to time it helps poison our children, so not well for us. But...it's working out for all of the big box stores that are peddling those products. I'm not presenting it as a good solution, just one that seems practical for the refiners. I don't have any reason to believe they have any concerns about being ethical OR helping the US economy.
So the real issue may very well be that there just are not enough pilots.
If pilot population and hours were growing each year and plane sales matched or exceeded the pre 1978 sales.
Then the companies would have plenty of motivation to invest what ever it takes to solve this problem.
That avgas usage chart in his video reminded me of my stock portfolio lately.
Gami and Swift Fuels had success, and proof no need for the government. EAGLE should be cancelled.
Leaded race fuel is certainly available, but not all race fuels are leaded.
When I raced motorcycles, none of the fancy racing fuels we used had lead in them. Though the did smell like death and dead brain cells if you caught a whiff when opening a can...... errr... what was I typing?
And there I was loving the smell of race fuel, kind of like jet fuel
What did you race? I had a Triumph Daytona 675 I raced in CMRA and WERA Southeast
1970's Yamaha 2 strokes, air and water cooled. WERA, AHRMA, and USCRA.
Nice! My street bike is a Daytona 675. What an outstanding bike.
But unlike aviation fuel, they aren’t bound by government regulation to use it.
With ready availability of a high octane unleaded fuel, I suspect even racing fuel will move away from lead. The race sanctioning bodies will probably ban it, or it'll be prohibitively expensive once the major user (avgas) no longer uses it.
Never said they did. But leaded racing a fuels do still exist.
The best solution is not to legislate fuel at all. Let the people decide for themselves what kind of fuel they wish to use.
Exactly. UL gas has advantages to my engine for which I would pay a premium. How much of a premium? I'm not sure right now, but the market will provide an answer. It's almost like there's a hand, or something.
All we are saying,
Is give Darwin a chance.
Sadly, Darwinism is sometimes a bit too slow....
yup....follow the science.
Sure. Because people are generally so well-informed on fuel chemistry.
And some people are so well informed on how to raise kids, but no one is passing regulations to prevent stupid ones from breeding.
Great idea. I want to use plutonium!
You'll have to also need get some pinball machine parts.
Interesting first post to jump into the fray here.
I'd want to add some RATO bottles to my 182 for high altitude takeoff performance. FAA won't approve it, damn it.
Welcome to POA.
You cheap farquads would all be running bunker fuel for $1.50/gal and a black IMC would descend on every airport in the nation.