GA or Commercial for this?

spiderweb

spiderweb

Final Approach
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Feb 22, 2005
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Ben
The trip is
KFDK --> 0B5, departure at 14Z
then
0B5 --> KFDK, Monday, starting at 17Z

C172SP G1000, flight will be IFR (and I'm both current and legal)

Question is for the return flight. Nothing on ADDS website or from briefer that says NO-GO, but the weather channel says some showers around departure area and Hartford areas, and the freezing level might be around 3000-5000. Once I pass Hartford, it will become clear again.

I humbly ask those of you with lots of X-C experience and knowledge of icing for your opinion.

Thanks so much!
Spiderweb
 
What are you thinking Ben? Perhaps others can help you refine your own plan.
 
I can return Tuesday morning, but by then the whole area will be rainy. My main concern is leaving Monday that there might be ice in the clouds. Rain or snow would be OK, but I don't want to be trapped up in New England. Here is the latest prog, but it is for 8 AM. The NWS is saying "stormy in New England."
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Ben,

Check this:

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KORE&state=MA

Forecast for clouds starting at 1-2K, 5C surface temp, and 50% chance of precip. That's questionable, in my book - I'd want to either stay VFR or at a minimum have XM weather aboard if I were going into the clouds (you didn't specify whether this plane has XM datalink). And you're right, it looks like it'll get worse before it gets better.

However, this looks OK:

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And, something to check closer to the time of: http://aviationweather.gov/products/gairmet/

If your schedule would allow a potential early departure on Monday if things do look bad, I would still call it a "go". If you absolutely cannot leave early, maybe not.

However, since you'll be near the edge of the bad weather, another option would be to fly GA most of the way, and land somewhere like Pittsfield and rent a car. Or, fly GA the whole way and if you don't like the forecast on Monday night, fly somewhere to the SW and rent a car and drive back.

This is one of those situations where "it'll probably be OK" is the answer, but if you have time pressure to get back you might want to consider other options.

Me, I'm not in the mood to get felt up by the TSA any more, and I think I'd rather shoot myself than drive the 95 corridor from the Washington area to Massachusetts again, so I'd be looking to do whatever I had to do to go GA. If you can depart earlier on Monday if necessary, it's a "go". If you can wait until later Tuesday or Wednesday, it's a "go".

Otherwise, it's a game-time decision. Look at the forecasts tomorrow right before you want to leave and see what the trend is.
 

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Thanks! I do have XM (and its a G1000). I would be picking up my wife for the trip back, because she's already there. She doesn't want to leave until late afternoon, so I am leaning towards a NO-GO. The option I am thinking about now is to make it a day trip for just tomorrow.
 
XM I don't find to be particularly useful for giving you any info on ice.

This time of year, I pretty much view any trip in a non-deiced aircraft in this part of the country as contingent on a high tolerance for delays. On this weekend's trip to South Carolina, New Hampshire, and back I didn't pick up any ice worth noting (never got more than a frost layer on the boots), but if I were in a 172 I still wouldn't have made the trip.
 
It appears to be less than an 8 hour drive. Personally, I never consider flying commercially if I can drive in less than about 10 to 12 hours. It's just not worth it to me to put up with the BS and it's hard for me to fly (door to door) anywhere in less than about 7 to 8 hours anyway (I'm almost two hours from STL)

Then again, I don't know if the drive can reasonably be completed in 8 hours since it's the east coast.
 
Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't flown IFR in a place where Icing can be picked up. But doesn't the presence of snow mean that icing won't accumulate very quickly if at all?
 
mhockey21 said:
Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't flown IFR in a place where Icing can be picked up. But doesn't the presence of snow mean that icing won't accumulate very quickly if at all?
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Flying through snow below the clouds may result in a clogged air filter and hard IMC, but ice is only a problem in the clouds.
 
New England is under an "omega block". So logn as this holds you should be allright. The low in the outer banks is NOT very low- 1000 mbar. The dominant pressure is a very very dense high pressure over Hudson Bay, and it's really stout.

This is one trip I'd be okay to make, provided that these two screens look the same in 10 hours.
 

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Just as well. Not a great day for flying in CT today. PIREPs for turbulence all over, and the occasional icing PIREP at low altitude, too. On the upside, first snow of the season! On the downside, it appears to be rain now, so that won't last.
 
spiderweb said:
Thanks! I do have XM (and its a G1000). I would be picking up my wife for the trip back, because she's already there. She doesn't want to leave until late afternoon, so I am leaning towards a NO-GO. The option I am thinking about now is to make it a day trip for just tomorrow.
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Words to live by: "When in doubt, don't."

Bob Gardner
 
Wow, glad this generated so many interesting responses. Seems Mr. One-Star might have been wrong this time. What makes me happiest is that he was ON THE GROUND when I was in the air! Bwahahahaaa! :p
 
spiderweb said:
Seems Mr. One-Star might have been wrong this time. What makes me happiest is that he was ON THE GROUND when I was in the air! Bwahahahaaa! :p
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:rofl: Good point!

And who the hell is Mr. One-Star anyway? I can't believe he's still at it. I mean, seriously, get a life, whoever you are! I purposely 5-star every one of Ben's threads that gets a 1-star just because...
 
scottd said:
Correct. In a large majority of the cases, FZRA is a ground-hugging event. FZDZ, on the other hand, can exist at much greater depths. Also, snow can be mixed with ice pellets and freezing rain in some circumstances.
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Yep. Weather is wonderfully three-dimensional. I've had times when it was -FZRA on the ground. Sitting right in the above freezing zone of the temperature inversion, I was flying along, ice-free.

That said, I was doing this in a de-iced airplane.
 
bobmrg said:
Words to live by: "When in doubt, don't."

Bob Gardner
Click to expand...

Which is why my CFII and I didn't even go to OLM to fly after work yesterday. Freezing level forecast to be about 3000 MSL. That 172 likely would have turned into a popcicle, and neither of us wanted anything to do with that. Live to fly another day.
 
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