B17 crash at Dallas.

wanttaja said:
Betcha it can't beat HBA. There's a guy there that says it's a "high probability" the accident was due to a Covid-vaccine-induced blood clot.

Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...

I dunno ... over here they are calling clear Scripture "obscure" and then misusing it to make a point ...
 
RyanShort1 said:
if you're not briefed by someone who was at the briefing, you are NOT flying.
Click to expand...
I keep going back to this comment.

Are you insinuating that you can perform in an air show like this one, and not actually, physically attend the briefing, just be back-briefed by someone there?

If that’s true, I don’t know what to say.
 
Sluggo63 said:
I keep going back to this comment.

Are you insinuating that you can perform in an air show like this one, and not actually, physically attend the briefing, just be back-briefed by someone there?

If that’s true, I don’t know what to say.
Click to expand...

I’ve seen it done on very rare occasions.

Usually the person was doing something less critical like a solo fly by.
 
Flying Keys said:
I think I’d lump altitude into the merging of lanes, at a higher level. Call it general path deconfliction versus focusing on lateral track alone.
Click to expand...

This will probably end up somewhere with a citing of the "Swiss cheese" model of risk management, i.e. institute as many points as possible to block failures. That's already been done, of course, but I'm sure there are major regrets for not adding an altitude separation to that mitigation process.
 
dbahn said:
This will probably end up somewhere with a citing of the "Swiss cheese" model of risk management, i.e. institute as many points as possible to block failures. That's already been done, of course, but I'm sure there are major regrets for not adding an altitude separation to that mitigation process.
Click to expand...

Why are you stating there was no altitude separation when that fact has not been established?
 
Cognitive and survivorship bias came into play for this incident.

"We've been doing airshows like this and never had a problem!"

"It couldn't be his fault. He had 40k hours!"

Ok.

I saw a P63 collide with a B17. Compounding failures that probably started on the ground until the fateful moment. The pilot is responsible when he strapped into the seat.

And yes, I came close to dying in two mid-airs.
 
Sluggo63 said:
I keep going back to this comment.

Are you insinuating that you can perform in an air show like this one, and not actually, physically attend the briefing, just be back-briefed by someone there?

If that’s true, I don’t know what to say.
Click to expand...
Not insinuating - it's been discussed before on more than one forum. There was a bit of a brew-ha-ha not that long ago about that possibly happening at an egregious level when the VAC guys put a TBM into the water off of an airshow.
https://www.airshowstuff.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2788&start=40

Personally, I wouldn't get too sanctimonious over it, especially if it's part of a formation, or, in some circumstances, there might be a separate briefing for a team, (although I certainly think that it could be abused - probably rarely - and the VAC deal doesn't seem to be primarily about the briefing, but some other ADM issues). An additional briefing is often true anyway, usually the flight leader will discuss more specifics, like who's in the lead, etc... and the military teams will attend the airboss briefing, but you know they have their own separate briefing where the meat of the matter is discussed. If you have a flight of 3 and the right wing guy gets his briefing from flight lead, that isn't really that dangerous, in my mind, as long as the lead pilot has given a thorough briefing on the important stuff and is comfortable having the newly briefed-pilot on his wing. He should've written it all down anyway.

There have also been situations where weather kept a plane, let's say a B-25, from arriving earlier in the week. It's on its way, say arriving at 9:30 before an 11am show - plenty of time to show the maintenance and pilot records, check in with the FAA, and get a briefing from flight lead, refuel, and be ready for the 1pm engine start. The difficulty being that the briefing is at 7am in the morning, which makes it impossible for the arriving pilot to be at the briefing. At a good show you probably get a packet that has a visual depiction of the important stuff related to show lines, altitudes, emergency procedures, schedule, and frequencies, etc... and if the plan is relatively simple, it's not really that complicated. When I flew in Wings Over Houston, we had our altitudes, ground points, procedures, what to do if you have an emergency, diversion point, etc. but flying the racetrack isn't hugely complicated, either. The bigger deal is not getting out of place, or off altitude. We were stacked in the L's and O's down at 300' and the T-6 and similar types were at 600' and the C-45 / Beech 18s were at 900 I believe. You could NOT climb into the stack above if you had an issue. It was interesting since the T-6s are faster than an L-5 and I could hear their engine / prop noise above my own engine every time they passed above.

Personally, I doubt that this particular issue was part of the WOD '22 accident chain. Tora lead / P-63 was at the briefing, so would have been Gunfighter and By Request's pilots, and the bombers were all already there from at least Thursday night and the weather was bad on Friday, so there likely wasn't any reason for them not to all be there Saturday morning.
 
Last edited:
FlightmechH3 said:
Cognitive and survivorship bias came into play for this incident.

"We've been doing airshows like this and never had a problem!"

"It couldn't be his fault. He had 40k hours!"

Ok.
Click to expand...

Reminds me a lot of the Dale Snodgrass accident. Lots of folks couldn't believe he could make a mistake.

I cranked up the NTSB accident database and looked up the Probable Causes for the three pilots with the most number of hours: 1. Overloading the aircraft, 2. Taxiing into a tree, and 3. Stall/Spin.

I still remember reading Gann's "Fate is the Hunter" as a kid. Main theme was that accidents will occur, no matter the pilot's experience or ability. Fate is always hunting.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Last edited:
pmanton said:
You see those videos being used by a lot of people. Does posting on Twitter put them in the public domain ?
Click to expand...
Found on the internet doesn't equate to "public domain". I'm not sure what your point is.

Excerts of videos used for review or commentary is allowed under fair use, however.
 
Of all the idiots sharing their opinions of what happened, my favorite is General Chuck Yeager. Now I know, some of you are offended that I would call the General an idiot. Ohters are saying Jack must not know the General died in 2020. Hah, you know nothing!

Several years ago, General Chuck Yeager reached out to me via Facebook, asked for my phone number, and we had a few phone conversations about some photos I took of one of his former planes. Because of what I do, I've had the honor of talking to some very famous people, but this one will be hard to top. I would never have dreamed that he could ruin his reputation so long after leaving the Earth.

I guess what I'm saying is, all of the other idiots now have a leader. Chuck has declared from above (through Facebook), where he probably had the best seat in the house, that "the P-63 pilot did not have situational awareness required in the sky especially at an air show." Case closed. No more speculation is needed.
 
dbahn said:
This will probably end up somewhere with a citing of the "Swiss cheese" model of risk management, i.e. institute as many points as possible to block failures. That's already been done, of course, but I'm sure there are major regrets for not adding an altitude separation to that mitigation process.
Click to expand...

You are probably correct, at least in the first part of your statement.

What we don't know is what the plan was, and what mitigations were in place. It is entirely likely there were several pieces of "Swiss cheese", such as separation laterally, vertically, and timing. Failing even two of those would have prevented this accident, but if all three managed to align, then this tragedy happens. Personally knowing some of the people involved in the planning and flying of this show, I can guarantee you there were safeguards in place or they would not have been involved. However accidents can and do still happen, and however tragic and painful mistakes get made.

Once the investigation is complete, I'm sure all of these details will be released to the public. Without knowing those details, we can all speculate to our hearts content.

In the end it won't matter, because most everyone already has their mind made up what happened and 6 families are still left to grieve.
 
Lowflynjack said:
Of all the idiots sharing their opinions of what happened, my favorite is General Chuck Yeager. Now I know, some of you are offended that I would call the General an idiot. Ohters are saying Jack must not know the General died in 2020. Hah, you know nothing!

Several years ago, General Chuck Yeager reached out to me via Facebook, asked for my phone number, and we had a few phone conversations about some photos I took of one of his former planes. Because of what I do, I've had the honor of talking to some very famous people, but this one will be hard to top. I would never have dreamed that he could ruin his reputation so long after leaving the Earth.

I guess what I'm saying is, all of the other idiots now have a leader. Chuck has declared from above (through Facebook), where he probably had the best seat in the house, that "the P-63 pilot did not have situational awareness required in the sky especially at an air show." Case closed. No more speculation is needed.
Click to expand...

Huh, what?
 
midwestpa24 said:
In the end it won't matter, because most everyone already has their mind made up what happened and 6 families are still left to grieve.
Click to expand...
The families will certainly grieve the hardest, but honestly, I feel like the CAF crews like Tora and the bomber crews are about as close as family as you can get outside of the military and they are grieving literally just as hard. There is a lot of camaraderie and touring, trust and interdependence there. I think that’s a big part of the pain.
 
Lowflynjack said:
Of all the idiots sharing their opinions of what happened, my favorite is General Chuck Yeager. Now I know, some of you are offended that I would call the General an idiot. Ohters are saying Jack must not know the General died in 2020. Hah, you know nothing!

Several years ago, General Chuck Yeager reached out to me via Facebook, asked for my phone number, and we had a few phone conversations about some photos I took of one of his former planes. Because of what I do, I've had the honor of talking to some very famous people, but this one will be hard to top. I would never have dreamed that he could ruin his reputation so long after leaving the Earth.

I guess what I'm saying is, all of the other idiots now have a leader. Chuck has declared from above (through Facebook), where he probably had the best seat in the house, that "the P-63 pilot did not have situational awareness required in the sky especially at an air show." Case closed. No more speculation is needed.
Click to expand...

In case anyone needs proof:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralChu...nCvQ4jU7MhuR4aGXV5DBhcgP1GotovZShu4WEM4oxZUWl

Screen capture:

Screen Capture.png

The situational-awareness comment did not originate with whoever is posting on that page, but with the Blancolirio analysis linked in that post. However it appears to me that it is not the most central point made in the video.

 
Lowflynjack said:
Most likely his widow posting on his FB page. It's become annoying!
Click to expand...

midwestpa24 said:
I've noticed the same and will likely be unfollowing his page. I don't think its appropriate for her to be using his name and likeness to voice her opinion on issues.
Click to expand...

Here's the reason given for continuing to post on his page. Is that sufficient justification? Beats me. :dunno:

Facebook Page.png
 
Palmpilot said:
Here's the reason given for continuing to post on his page. Is that sufficient justification? Beats me. :dunno:

View attachment 112413
Click to expand...


The CAF crash post was not posting “about him” and has nothing to do with Yager’s “wit and history.”

These things might justify keeping the page active. The posting in question is a complete non sequitor in that regard.

So no.
 
Food for thought

9768B562-4A3F-4DE4-9245-0EDFD4179A54.jpeg
https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_90-48E.pdf

I had literally switched off my video during the turn around from the previous pass because my sim has asked if I could pick him up so he could see better, but I would really like to find a video of the previous pass and then the turn - don’t need to see the collision - to see if my memories are correct, how long that turn around took and if there was a switch from close formation with the fighters to the trail.
 
Just saw the video AOPA’s Richard McSpadden did offering his insights into what MAY be areas to look into. Done very respectfully.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Food for thought

View attachment 112421
https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/media/Advisory_Circular/AC_90-48E.pdf

I had literally switched off my video during the turn around from the previous pass because my sim has asked if I could pick him up so he could see better, but I would really like to find a video of the previous pass and then the turn - don’t need to see the collision - to see if my memories are correct, how long that turn around took and if there was a switch from close formation with the fighters to the trail.
Click to expand...

Here’s an analysis of the ADS-B tracks of the B-17 and two of the fighters, including the P-63. You can establish the timing of the turn and the overtake from that.

 
Flying Keys said:
Here’s an analysis of the ADS-B tracks of the B-17 and two of the fighters, including the P-63. You can establish the timing of the turn and the overtake from that.

Click to expand...
I don’t care at all about the ADS-B. I’m still looking for video.
 
Last edited:
RyanShort1 said:
I don’t care at all about the ADS-B. I’m still looking for video.
Click to expand...

I have video of the previous turn showing the fighters remaining in close formation out of the turn with altitude separation from the bombers. The video isn't great, since I had to shoot only short clips due to space constraints on the phone and also mainly focuses on the SB2C. The video ends as they go into the final turn.

Go to 14:18

WpOu0Ci.png
 
Ok, well for sure that agrees with what I remembered that the fighters were in formation on the previous pass.
 
Brian K said:
I have video of the previous turn showing the fighters remaining in close formation out of the turn with altitude separation from the bombers. The video isn't great, since I had to shoot only short clips due to space constraints on the phone and also mainly focuses on the SB2C. The video ends as they go into the final turn.

Go to 14:18

WpOu0Ci.png
Click to expand...

curious if you and/or other folks have sent their videos in to the investigators, just in case
 
Flying Keys said:
Here’s an analysis of the ADS-B tracks of the B-17 and two of the fighters, including the P-63. You can establish the timing of the turn and the overtake from that.

Click to expand...

The problem is you cannot accurately recreate this accident using publicly available ADS-B data. It doesn’t have the fidelity that accident investigators need.

A lot of people are trying it, but they all seem to come up with different measurements.
 
Palmpilot said:
In case anyone needs proof:

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralChu...nCvQ4jU7MhuR4aGXV5DBhcgP1GotovZShu4WEM4oxZUWl

Screen capture:

View attachment 112412

The situational-awareness comment did not originate with whoever is posting on that page, but with the Blancolirio analysis linked in that post. However it appears to me that it is not the most central point made in the video.

Click to expand...

That woman has been a fruit loop since long before Yeager passed away.

Someone needs to cover her front yard with pictures of George Welch.
 
Here is the P-51C which was *presumably* leading the P-63, a split second after the incident. *Presumably* they were setting up for a high speed pass down the show line. This was a change-up from the previous pass where the fighters were apparently on a tighter, inside line, in close formation to each other.

GA6I6Kz.png
 
The only planes with level wings in that screenshot are parked on the ramp, so was anybody at that point on a "show line"? I doubt it. I'd think the outermost track planes ought to be wings level and lined up prior to the inner track planes merging next to them or sequencing in line with them, no?
 
Uh, you guys are figuring it all out. It seems if there was a plan it wasn’t followed very well or well designed.

It’s a very informal part of a low intensity airshow. Honestly, very likely simply not robust enough in any respect.

It’s hard for outsiders to believe it could be so ad hoc. It’s hard for hard core professionals (like McFadden and others) to comprehend ad hoc. I’m here to tell you it’s a REAL possibility. In my mind we are steering straight for invulnerability and complacency. Exactly how it got there is YEARS of success likely.

Unfortunately the level of culpability in this case will likely prevent honesty, and we won’t ever know what we need to know the most.

I’ve seen people walk away from invites to this sort of demonstration, thinking to myself what’s the big deal? Well….

There but by the grace of God go I.
 
Tools said:
Uh, you guys are figuring it all out. It seems if there was a plan it wasn’t followed very well or well designed.

It’s a very informal part of a low intensity airshow. Honestly, very likely simply not robust enough in any respect.

It’s hard for outsiders to believe it could be so ad hoc. It’s hard for hard core professionals (like McFadden and others) to comprehend ad hoc. I’m here to tell you it’s a REAL possibility. In my mind we are steering straight for invulnerability and complacency. Exactly how it got there is YEARS of success likely.

Unfortunately the level of culpability in this case will likely prevent honesty, and we won’t ever know what we need to know the most.

I’ve seen people walk away from invites to this sort of demonstration, thinking to myself what’s the big deal? Well….

There but by the grace of God go I.
Click to expand...
My gut feeling is that there are five or six really good aviators right now we’re asking themselves why they didn’t say “no” or “I have a concern” and realizing that external pressures cost them six friends and possibly the entire airshow circuit.

It would have been worth being put in the chair…
 
Sluggo63 said:
Great.

So he can be a huge flaming ******* douchebag from the grave, too.

Super.
Click to expand...

Fun fact: my uncle was his crew chief at Edwards in the 70's.

My uncle was an &%$ hole on a scale of 10/10. We never got along and he looked down on me for years for going USCG aviation.

From what i gathered, from the horses mouth, that America's Hero was a much bigger &%$ hole than him. Chuck was very lucky to survive many close calls himself from self-inflicted poor judgment episodes.

If I angered any of his worshippers here, I'm not sorry.
 
Fearless Tower said:
That woman has been a fruit loop since long before Yeager passed away.

Someone needs to cover her front yard with pictures of George Welch.
Click to expand...

“…Blackburn, however, maintains that a record on the Muroc radar theodolite, of the two flights Welch made on November 13, 1947, indicated supersonic flights, as well, noting 20 minutes before the X-1 broke the record, a sonic boom was heard over the desert, centered on the Happy Bottom Riding Club,[N 3] dude ranch restaurant and hotel operated by Pancho Barnes.[13]”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Welch_(pilot)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top