OSH22 Attedance - More or less than pre-COVID?

[CJones]

Was getting some fuel today (now I get to learn how to fly with only one arm and leg) and while chatting with the fuel truck driver, I asked if they have noticed a drop in activity since fuel prices have gone up (I haven't flown in a long while, so I am out of the loop on the activity at the home drome). He mentioned that their jet traffic has pretty much all dried up and other than flight training, regular spam can GA is non-existent.

We're just south of ATL and very near a Cancer Treatment Center of America, so light jet traffic was not uncommon in previous years. And it wasn't uncommon to have a couple of Diamonds, maybe a 172 and the local Pitts guy out in the pattern on nice flying evenings.

That, in combination with a discussion my dad and I were having yesterday made me curious - what are folks' predictions for attendance numbers at OSH this year? On one hand, I could see an increase in attendance due to being (mostly/somewhat) out of the COVID fog. On the other hand I could see attendance being down due to fuel prices. Will the increase/decrease offset each other and be a 'typical' pre-COVID attendance number or ???

 

[tsts4]

Based upon last year’s numbers, I don’t think COVID by itself will have much of an impact. Having said that, the combination of the economy and health concerns might have some impact, but I predict attendance will be about average.

 

[Grum.Man]

I don't think Covid will have any impact but I predict the numbers will either be the same, or slightly dip from last year due to the economy. I have definitely noticed a slow down in sales of hobby goods such as boats/rv/airplanes and even cars. Generally speaking though the aviation community tends to be more wealthy thus immune to the early stages of a falling economy. I for one will not be attending this year mostly due to the cost.

 

[frfly172]

This year is probably going to be all about the money. With high fuel prices being a determining factor for some.

 

[Lowflynjack]

I'm hearing more people say they're going for the first time than I have in the past. I predict the largest turnout ever! I think a lot of people were still leery of COVID last year and it was still a record turnout.

 

[tyndall]

Considering the EAA who squeezes every last penny from anyone who sets foot on the grounds, extended the early bird ticket discounts, I'd say that's an indication attendance will be down. Last year was pent up demand from 2020. This year it's the economy, inflation, and no major draw.

 

[RyanB]

If these so-called supply chain disruptions don't improve (lack of oil filters, tires, tubes, parts etc.,) General Aviation is going to be hit even harder I'm afraid, not to mention sky high fuel prices. I certainly believe a lot of personal and recreational flying has been limited with the shape of the economy right now, but it seems like the demand for flight training is still red hot. My guess is the turn out this year will be lower, if everything else is an indication.

 

[Van Johnston]

I was prepping for first return since 2016. Have my wristbands and notice. Started piling stuff up in the dining room yesterday, then wife tells me she tested positive. Now in my 5 day potential incubation phase....

 

[Aviatordoc]

I booked an airline ticket to OSH and back for less than 400$ a long time ago. Try feeding and IO 540 with that at todays price of 100LL. I will not even get there.

 

[Clip4]

I think it will be average. Airplane owners are not a poor lot and the masses are not noticing Covid numbers are increasing again.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

Bigger than last years....there is pent up demand and folks want out.

 

[baboss]

Bigger. The Friday before is the new Saturday before. I hope I don't get stuck in the South 40.

 

[Steve Costello]

Bigger. The Friday before is the new Saturday before. I hope I don't get stuck in the South 40.

Man. This is no freaking joke. My first year was 6 years ago. Rolled up Friday at midnight, so I just slept in the truck. Saturday at the crack of dawn I went hunting for a spot and landed at Cottonwood and 24th. Been pretty much in that area the following years.

Last year my buddy and I decided to get there much earlier... Friday morning. I thought SURELY we'll get a decent spot.

We ended up at Cedar and 24th, and only just barely that... by nightfall Friday we were already surrounded. By Saturday afternoon, nearly everything north of the emergency runway was taken.

It'll be interesting to see attendance this year, not only from airplane camping, but from just camping camping. It isn't cheap to pull a camper or drive a Class A. Sure, the folks with the Class A coaches are definitely still coming despite getting 6 mpg because the financial impact for them will likely be negligible. But the folks bringing their family in a travel trailer from 500+ miles away? That trip just got a whole lot more expensive for them, and they'll feel it.

 

[keen9]

Considering the EAA who squeezes every last penny from anyone who sets foot on the grounds, extended the early bird ticket discounts, I'd say that's an indication attendance will be down.

They have done the same extension every single year since the early bird discount started.

 

[Lowflynjack]

I booked an airline ticket to OSH and back for less than 400$ a long time ago. Try feeding and IO 540 with that at todays price of 100LL. I will not even get there.

Yeah, I made the mistake of doing the math! Assuming 18 hours round trip, 13 gph, $6/gallon = $1404 Ouch!

 

[kmacht]

Regardless of how many people go or don’t go the EAA press will still claim record numbers. I don’t remember them ever claiming a year over year drop in attendance. I went last year and although there seemed to be fewer experimental aircraft than other years, camp Scholler seemed to have more campers than ever. I’m not going this year due to other family vacation commitments but I still see it as a relatively cheap week long vacation and costs wouldn’t have kept me away. Of course I usually drive from Ct and split gas and camping costs among 2 or 3 friends that want to go too. I used to bring a camper but now just bring a tent and some camping supplies.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

So who thinks they close parking late Monday.....or will it be Tuesday?

 

[masloki]

I call it down from last year. Most of the macro stuff (case rate, economy, fuel prices) is worse YoY. On the positive, travel and vacationing is up YoY and OSH direct costs are fairly low vs other options being up 100%+ (hotels, car rentals, etc).

 

[bflynn]

Last year, I don't remember parking ever closing. I know someone who flew in Tuesday and had to park in Antarctica, but he got in. By Wed, so many had left, there was no problem again.

 

[JB1842]

Man. This is no freaking joke. My first year was 6 years ago. Rolled up Friday at midnight, so I just slept in the truck. Saturday at the crack of dawn I went hunting for a spot and landed at Cottonwood and 24th. Been pretty much in that area the following years.

Last year my buddy and I decided to get there much earlier... Friday morning. I thought SURELY we'll get a decent spot.

We ended up at Cedar and 24th, and only just barely that... by nightfall Friday we were already surrounded. By Saturday afternoon, nearly everything north of the emergency runway was taken.

It'll be interesting to see attendance this year, not only from airplane camping, but from just camping camping. It isn't cheap to pull a camper or drive a Class A. Sure, the folks with the Class A coaches are definitely still coming despite getting 6 mpg because the financial impact for them will likely be negligible. But the folks bringing their family in a travel trailer from 500+ miles away? That trip just got a whole lot more expensive for them, and they'll feel it.

I'm leaving Ohio early Thursday pulling my camper, 535 miles. I'm adding an hour drive but gaining 70 miles by going up though Michigan than across Ohio and Indiana. But I'm "saving" money by avoiding the tolls. Sometime I still wish I lived in Wisconsin.

 

[JOhnH]

I went back and forth on my answer, and finally just gave up.

If it weren't for fuel prices I would say attendance will be way more than pre-covid.
But fuel prices are a sad reality for a lot of us.

But the main reason I personally am not going is that my plane is currently having three cylinders replaced due to sudden high amounts of metal showing up in the oil analysis and an acute case of high leakdown (low compression) results in said cylinders.

I know, I know, but I don't want to fool around. My wife lost an engine one time and had to land on a highway after I made the decision to postpone similar work.

 

[SixPapaCharlie]

Feel like everybody's going earlier and earlier which is forcing everybody to go in earlier and earlier.

I'm going to an event on Friday and flying into Oshkosh on Sunday but now I'm debating flying to Oshkosh on Friday getting my campsite set up and then flying back to the event.

I guess at the end of the day it doesn't matter where they put you. You're going to be walking 10 miles a day regardless.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

People don't skip OSH for fuel prices - They skip other flying so they can still go to OSH.

I'm not sure why they think that getting rusty and then going into the busiest airport in the world is a good idea, but that's how it goes.

I think we'll see numbers similar to last year, which were higher than pre-Covid.

 

[Jim K]

Feel like everybody's going earlier and earlier which is forcing everybody to go in earlier and earlier.

I'm going to an event on Friday and flying into Oshkosh on Sunday but now I'm debating flying to Oshkosh on Friday getting my campsite set up and then flying back to the event.

I guess at the end of the day it doesn't matter where they put you. You're going to be walking 10 miles a day regardless.

Eaa posted pictures today of people already set up in the N40. Crazy. I think I'm going to go with my late week strategy again. As early as people are showing up, I might be the only one there by next Friday.

 

[aggie06]

Feel like everybody's going earlier and earlier which is forcing everybody to go in earlier and earlier.

I'm going to an event on Friday and flying into Oshkosh on Sunday but now I'm debating flying to Oshkosh on Friday getting my campsite set up and then flying back to the event.

I guess at the end of the day it doesn't matter where they put you. You're going to be walking 10 miles a day regardless.

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but part of the problem is the seeming unwillingness at times to keep arrivals moving as fast as they can. Another contributing factor is the mass arrivals process that has created reserved spots for anyone who wants to join. You have to get to the show early enough that you’re in front of where the Cessnas and Bos and Cherokees are planning to park. The mass arrivals get prime real estate no matter when they arrive and all the normies get to just work around them. I know people say that we can get more arrivals in a short amount of time but the runways are closed for longer than there are airplanes on them and with people avoiding the time slots, it causes more congestion at other times (which leads to more lake holds). Changing the mass arrival process to be one where you park on the next row available (whether it be next to the Red Market or on the north side of 27) and aren’t guaranteed to all be together would probably reduce the size of the mass arrivals but would also make it so you aren’t coming early to make sure you get a decent spot.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Maybe an unpopular opinion, but part of the problem is the seeming unwillingness at times to keep arrivals moving as fast as they can.

It's not that they're unwilling to do so. What turned everything into a $#!+ show a few years ago was that when it got busy, people weren't maintaining 1/2 mile in trail and they were having to send a lot of planes back to the beginning, so they asked for a mile in trail, which just got more people trying to jump on top of each other trying to get in.

Go out to Fisk sometime. It's one of the cooler things you can see in Oshkosh. Watch the arrivals and how the controllers handle them. If both runways are open and operating in a way that Fisk can use them both (ie, no mass arrivals, no "special" arrivals, etc) the Fisk controllers can make up for pilots not following 1/2 mile in trail by splitting arrivals that are too close into separate runway arrivals so that the 1/2 mile in trail is still there getting to the runways.

If that isn't an option, the pilots MUST maintain 1/2 mile in trail or it's just going to result in go-arounds and even more of a hornet's nest at the airport, and that's when you start seeing crashes.

If everyone could do these things, it would solve the problem... So practice them before you decide to fly into OSH:

* Maintain 1/2 mile in trail.
* Maintain 90 knots, and know exactly what power setting is required for your airplane to maintain 90 knots so that you're not throttle-jockeying and constantly changing speeds.
* Maintain your 90 knots as far into the approach as you can without making your landing longer.
* Slow down as quickly as you can and steer off into the grass.
* DO NOT key up the mic, EVER, unless ATC asks you a question. I can't tell you how many times I've heard people at Fisk trying to ask for a different runway than they're given, when it's not an option... And then ATC gets behind because you used up their frequency time, and they have to start sending people back to the beginning.
* If you can't fly your Cirrus at 90 knots, go practice. (Sorry to those of you who fly Cirri competently, but IME the Cirri are far more likely to be screwing things up on the arrival than other types.)
* Land on a spot, or at least close to it!
* Make a base-to-final turn starting at 100 AGL. This is what's supposed to happen when you're landing on 18R.
* Land short or long upon request. IME, short approaches are often requested on 27, and if you land on 36R you're supposed to stay on the runway all the way to the end, so know how to keep your speed up as long as you can but slow down under control.

Have a good show, everyone!

 

[CJones]

It's not that they're unwilling to do so. What turned everything into a $#!+ show a few years ago was that when it got busy, people weren't maintaining 1/2 mile in trail and they were having to send a lot of planes back to the beginning, so they asked for a mile in trail, which just got more people trying to jump on top of each other trying to get in.

Go out to Fisk sometime. It's one of the cooler things you can see in Oshkosh. Watch the arrivals and how the controllers handle them. If both runways are open and operating in a way that Fisk can use them both (ie, no mass arrivals, no "special" arrivals, etc) the Fisk controllers can make up for pilots not following 1/2 mile in trail by splitting arrivals that are too close into separate runway arrivals so that the 1/2 mile in trail is still there getting to the runways.

If that isn't an option, the pilots MUST maintain 1/2 mile in trail or it's just going to result in go-arounds and even more of a hornet's nest at the airport, and that's when you start seeing crashes.

If everyone could do these things, it would solve the problem... So practice them before you decide to fly into OSH:

* Maintain 1/2 mile in trail.
* Maintain 90 knots, and know exactly what power setting is required for your airplane to maintain 90 knots so that you're not throttle-jockeying and constantly changing speeds.
* Maintain your 90 knots as far into the approach as you can without making your landing longer.
* Slow down as quickly as you can and steer off into the grass.
* DO NOT key up the mic, EVER, unless ATC asks you a question. I can't tell you how many times I've heard people at Fisk trying to ask for a different runway than they're given, when it's not an option... And then ATC gets behind because you used up their frequency time, and they have to start sending people back to the beginning.
* If you can't fly your Cirrus at 90 knots, go practice. (Sorry to those of you who fly Cirri competently, but IME the Cirri are far more likely to be screwing things up on the arrival than other types.)
* Land on a spot, or at least close to it!
* Make a base-to-final turn starting at 100 AGL. This is what's supposed to happen when you're landing on 18R.
* Land short or long upon request. IME, short approaches are often requested on 27, and if you land on 36R you're supposed to stay on the runway all the way to the end, so know how to keep your speed up as long as you can but slow down under control.

Have a good show, everyone!

Man... If ONLY they would publish this information for pilots to know ahead of time. You know... Almost like a NOTice to AirMen that people could study ahead of time to know how the arrival should work so the pilots and controllers are working together. Man... If only! AND THEN..... if people would actually READ it and FOLLOW it.. Just imagine how things would work!!! Sigh.. Unfortunately, I'm asking for too much.

Even though I haven't flown in for several years now, I'm already dreading the jack-assery that I'm sure we'll encounter up there.

 

[Rich Holt]

It's noon (OSH time) Thursday and the first 2 rows of N40 are full of campers. Working on row 3. Is that normal?

edit: Third row is full now too.

 

[CJones]

It's noon (OSH time) Thursday and the first 2 rows of N40 are full of campers. Working on row 3. Is that normal?

edit: Third row is full now too.

Watching a fairly stead stream of arrivals on ADSBExchange this afternoon. Eventually they're going to have to start saying that the show starts a week LATER than it actually does so then people will arrive on-time instead of a week early.

 

[crash7]

I’m arriving Saturday late morning. I’ll wave from the South 40...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Man... If ONLY they would publish this information for pilots to know ahead of time. You know... Almost like a NOTice to AirMen that people could study ahead of time to know how the arrival should work so the pilots and controllers are working together. Man... If only! AND THEN..... if people would actually READ it and FOLLOW it.. Just imagine how things would work!!! Sigh.. Unfortunately, I'm asking for too much.

Even though I haven't flown in for several years now, I'm already dreading the jack-assery that I'm sure we'll encounter up there.

The crazy thing is, the jackasses don't know what they're missing out on by being on top of their game. Landing in front of thousands of people at the world's greatest aviation celebration is already quite a rush, but when the controller takes valuable frequency time to say "Nice job, welcome to Oshkosh!"... There's nothing better. Even if the "nice job" was for something you had to do to help them out as a result of jackassery.

I've gotten it after the worst bit of jackassery I've ever seen at OSH, I've gotten it for following the procedure and landing long on 36R, I've gotten it for a slam dunk short approach on 27 to help them shorten up the patterns people were flying (got to skip the line a bit!), and even for having a nice aggressive wing rock that's impossible to mistake for the turbulence that's always there that time of year. Do well, get the reward.

 

[Rich Holt]

The crazy thing is, the jackasses don't know what they're missing out on by being on top of their game. Landing in front of thousands of people at the world's greatest aviation celebration is already quite a rush, but when the controller takes valuable frequency time to say "Nice job, welcome to Oshkosh!"... There's nothing better.

Here I thought that you never had to ask a pilot what they did. The information is typically offered up without question. Unless it's asked in front of thousands of people, then they hide in the back. What better way to remind everyone that you are a pilot than nailing the procedure in a (high) pressure environment and putting the 2 mains in the center of the dot?

I just don't get these kids today... Get off my lawn!

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

If you want to be on the flight line....you gotta get there early....like Thursday.

Here are my friends from Texas.....I'll be there Monday.

It's noon (OSH time) Thursday and the first 2 rows of N40 are full of campers. Working on row 3. Is that normal?

edit: Third row is full now too.

 

[Rich Holt]

Here are my friends from Texas.

Got there early to avoid the heat wave back home. Good choice.

I really enjoyed the temperature swings in Wisconsin when I was there. 90s during the day, 50's at night.

 

[Country Flier]

People don't skip OSH for fuel prices - They skip other flying so they can still go to OSH.

I'm not sure why they think that getting rusty and then going into the busiest airport in the world is a good idea, but that's how it goes.

I think we'll see numbers similar to last year, which were higher than pre-Covid.

I've decided to skip this year due to...drum roll please...fuel prices! I've been before (albeit by ground transportation), I'll go again, but I'd rather do something else this year with my flying-fuel dollars.

 

[bflynn]

based on camping, it doesn’t seem as full compared to last year. But it’s early and I think some storms possible on Sat. We will see where we wind up.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

I'm driving in .....along with 100,000 others.

I've decided to skip this year due to...drum roll please...fuel prices! I've been before (albeit by ground transportation), I'll go again, but I'd rather do something else this year with my flying-fuel dollars.

 

[flyingron]

Seems slower than past years (even 2021), but the weather often causes deviations this early.

 

[CJones]

Seems slower than past years (even 2021), but the weather often causes deviations this early.

I posted this in the other thread as well.. I heard OSH Tower tell someone a few minutes ago that he is running North Arrival Tower, North Departure Tower, and Ground because they haven't had as many early arrivals as they expected to need to split it up.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Seems slower than past years (even 2021), but the weather often causes deviations this early.

"even" 2021? It was nucking futs last year.

I wouldn't expect there to be anywhere near enough traffic to be a reliable indicator this year. Let's talk again on Sunday night...