I’m calling the peak

Aviatorbrew said:
The Russian oil supply is only ten percent, That doesn’t add up to equal a $2.00 a gal increase in prices.
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That may be the impetus, it is not the direct cause. As buyers are forced to shift from contracts with prices set far enough in the past to be compedative, thier costs are increased far beyond the median price of unaffected contracts. Then there is a cascade effect as those who MUST have supplies are willing to outbid those who would LIKE to have supplies. Add in the real costs of breaking contracts and physically changing over... Some contengency and a little bit of speculation buying... Voila! A $2.00 increase.
 
Aviatorbrew said:
...
AG, back in his day, stated that “ the IC engine is the worst thing ever invented”
That is the push, get rid of oil
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Al Green? Alan Greenspan? Adolf Galland? Art Garfunkel? Amon Goeth? Alec Guinness? Andy Griffith?

Maybe Amon. Still tough to believe. He was a terrible person, but still, tough to believe he would disparage the IC engine.
My bet is on Alec Guinness, taken out of context when he couldn't get his British car started one day, and was just swearing at everything. Crazy Brits, gotta love 'em.
 
Albany Tom said:
Al Green? Alan Greenspan? Adolf Galland? Art Garfunkel? Amon Goeth? Alec Guinness? Andy Griffith?
My bet is on Alec Guinness, taken out of context when he couldn't get his British car started one day, and was just swearing at everything. Crazy Brits, gotta love 'em.
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Interesting people all, but none are the inventor of the internet!
 
Depends on your definition of "peak". If you mean end of the current steep rise in prices, yeah probably. Interest rates are definitely going up, and that is definitely going to affect buying power.

If you mean "peak" as in prices will fall, that is a bit more of a stretch. Price reductions usually takes some kind of very unusual external market force. Such events are rarely obvious except in hindsight.

I hope they do, as my life situation aligns with possible purchase of a 2nd home this summer, and I really hate the idea of buying at the peak. Buying at a plateau, that I could stomach.
 
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Ed Haywood said:
Depends on your definition of "peak". If you mean end of the current steep rise in prices, yeah probably. Interest rates are definitely going up, and that is definitely going to affect buying power.

If you mean "peak" as in prices will fall, that is a bit more of a stretch. Price reductions usually takes some kind of very unusual external market force. Such events are rarely obvious except in hindsight.

I hope they do, as my life situation aligns with possible purchase of a 2nd home this summer, and I really hate the idea of buying at the peak. Buying at a plateau, that I could stomach.
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well, sure, but what would be the fun of “calling the plateau”?
 
All I know is the listings for the few types of planes I'm interested in don't seem to last all that long, anymore.

OTOH, I grew up outside of Wichita, KS (if you didn't know) The AIR CAPITOL of the WORLD, and the common knowledge was (and probably still is) "When the economy gets a cold, Wichita gets pneumonia."
 
Skinnybird said:
Does the electricity fairy bring electricty? Or are mostly fossil fuels burned to produce it with loss encoutered in conversion and storage?
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About 61% fossil fuels to produce it, in the U.S.

outlet-graph-large.jpg


https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us.php
 
Back to the OP, recent stock market and interest rate changes would certainly seem to suggest less buyers entering the market. But could take a year or two for that to translate into a price correction, as supply slowly builds up.

I've noticed an increase in second homes for sale in the market I'm watching. But most of them are unrealistically high priced, which suggests FOMO at work.
 
Let's go Recession! Yeah! Wait - I'll have no money to buy anything as the stocks have crashed and inflation has ruined everything else........
 
It’d be great if there was something like Zillow for planes, so we could see the selling prices.
 
I heard a rumor that the FAA will introduce a NPRM at Oshkosh that will significantly expand the number of planes that can be flown with a Sport Pilot cert, they will not be classified as LSA’s but you will be able to fly them with a driver’s license as a medical. It would take effect in 2024. So if you have a ship that might fall into that category, might be wise to hang on to it for a bit.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
82 wasn’t my problem.
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Gotcha. I remember 82 better than 86, though neither was my specific problem. Effects from S&L debacle and other issues resulted in ‘86 having less an impact. When you’re at the bottom; you can’t fall far, so to speak.
 
TCABM said:
Gotcha. I remember 82 better than 86, though neither was my specific problem. Effects from S&L debacle and other issues resulted in ‘86 having less an impact. When you’re at the bottom; you can’t fall far, so to speak.
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86 was my first opportunity to understand what was going on and the fallout from that lingered long enough to affect me after I was paying my own way. 2008 was a big kick in the balls too but I changed jobs and got a six figure raise two years into that pile of turds and I did not have much invested so I avoided much of the pain. This time around I’m closer to being debt free and already own most everything I want so I’m just going to service my debt and save as much as possible to hedge against the inflation and still retire one day. I think a lot of people will be doing the same and demand for goods will drop. If that actually happens the wheels in this bus of spending will fall off and it will hurt. For a while.
 
82 I was in school, and 86 I had no money and no stocks / savings. I ignored 2008 because I had time to recover.

But inflation and recession - stagflation - is beyond evil. I remember it during the 70’s as a kid in school. Our middle class family got really, really squeezed. What did Jimmy Carter call it? The “Malaise”
 
WDD said:
82 I was in school, and 86 I had no money and no stocks / savings. I ignored 2008 because I had time to recover.

But inflation and recession - stagflation - is. Eying evil. I remember it during the 70’s as a kid in school. Our middle class family got really, really squeezed. What did Jimmy Carter call it? The “Malaise”
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My brother remembers the 70’s. He’s old.
I just hope we can get some better leadership. We have been on a bipartisan spending spree for many decades. Time to rein that in a little.
 
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Tarheelpilot said:
…. If that actually happens the wheels in this bus of spending will fall off and it will hurt. For a while.
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I don’t disagree. Lack of growth hurts, but debt kills in downturns/recessions/depressions. For the individual, it’s painful but creditors are the ones facing the problem.

What’s unknown is what happens if there’s a mass extinction of creditors…the assets are still out there, but *some* or more of the debt evaporates. That’s what may drive values to a cash market.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
My brother remembers the 70’s. He’s old.
I just hope we can get some better leadership. We have been on a partisan spending spree for many decades. Time to rein that in a little.
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Or is it Bipartisan spending because both parties are feeding at the trough?
 
WDD said:
…
But inflation and recession - stagflation - is beyond evil. I remember it during the 70’s as a kid in school. Our middle class family got really, really squeezed. What did Jimmy Carter call it? The “Malaise”
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QFT
 
Tarheelpilot said:
yes. I typed the opposite of what I was thinking. Thanks for the catch.
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I dont want to get banned for saying both political parties are full of cow crap. But somebody will probably be insulted.
 
It is partisan. It’s just that whatever part is in power spends, the other side complains. And then they switch places periodically.
 
It's a bit like asking if Larry or Curly was smarter.
 
WDD said:
It is partisan. It’s just that whatever part is in power spends, the other side complains. And then they switch places periodically.
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One of the parts is trying their darndest to make this switching come to an end
 
I talked to a broker today - he think's we're past peak now.
 
Carter and Biden have a lot in common as to their understanding of how an economy works, and what a president should do, or not do. Hopefully, this will not develop into a parallel event financially.
 
All oxes need to be gored.....Apple has a lil bit more to go. Once Apple is done it's just about over. Till rates come down more....
 
Whitney said:
Sales seem to be slowing, and the grossly over priced aircraft are not selling. My prediction is that prices will drop significantly before Christmas.
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Can you call that for ski condos in Colorado too, please?
 
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