You’ll probably catch it more than once

denverpilot

denverpilot

Tied Down
Joined
Nov 8, 2009
Messages
55,469
Location
Denver, CO
Display Name
Display name:
DenverPilot
I’m sure this will get locked because of unrelated commentary, but... for informational purposes... and new input for your personal risk analysis.

Called this back in March. By hard numbers. Most coronaviruses do this. Betting against that was always a statistical sucker bet.

The real question is, does the body react better to the follow ons. Always was.

The secondary question is how often and do different people’s immune systems respond differently. Likely. Again by the numbers. We already see that by age, comorbidity, etc.

Title is misleading. He’s the fourth worldwide. The first in the US and first confirmed by genomics.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/local...aid-to-be-first-confirmed-case-in-us-2106957/
 
Heh, I just read a few weeks ago they'd "confirmed" you had at least 3mo of immunity after recovery. I'm thinking it's going to be a while before anyone has definitive answers on this thing.

I think there's little doubt this thing is going to be with us for a long time, possibly forever. If reinfection is possible and they can't come up with a vaccine with lasting effects what then? Surely we're not going to keep up with the masks and all these restrictions forever. Heck, most people I know have already resumed their normal activities, just putting on masks when forced to do so.
 
I had it in July, and pretty sure I had it in January also (after returning from Milan).

The biggest PITA is that is lasts awhile and it’s hard to be very productive while you’re sick.
 
one question: reinfected with the same variant or was it a different variant?
 
I believe what I’m reading these days is that there are different strains. It will probably be a while before we get it down to targeted strains that we can fight like we do the flu.

it will be very important for everyone to get the vaccines, but they will always be version 1.0, so a lot of people claim they will shy away.
 
So, instead of 3 years of self isolation and destroying our economy, it’s forever. I’m not surprised. I suggested as much back in March or April.
 
For most people, if they develop an immune reaction to the virus that immunity will last for quite some time, if not permanently. The only reason influenza can avoid this is that the different strains that arise from year to year are immunologically different.
 
Salty said:
So, instead of 3 years of self isolation and destroying our economy, it’s forever. I’m not surprised. I suggested as much back in March or April.
Click to expand...

Good news: the incipient mass civil unrest will soon have us longing for the good old days of quarantine back in march and april.
 
steingar said:
For most people, if they develop an immune reaction to the virus that immunity will last for quite some time, if not permanently. The only reason influenza can avoid this is that the different strains that arise from year to year are immunologically different.
Click to expand...

I believe that’s why they tested this guy with the genomic tests, but the article isn’t clear what the results were.

Mixed messages about different strains of the thing already including one theory that it’s why NYC has been significantly more deadly than elsewhere... European vs Asian strains. The west coast earliest arrival hasn’t even come close to how many NYC has had die.

Problem with that theory is that NYC continued to have four direct flights per day from Wuhan throughout the entire month the focus was stupidly on cruise ships in California harbors.
 
If this is true (a big IF), then there's no hope for a vaccine.
 
OneCharlieTango said:
If this is true (a big IF), then there's no hope for a vaccine.
Click to expand...

Oh there’s vaccines and then there’s vaccines.

Something that interrupts the mechanism but not perfectly, is the type of thing that’s been done in other drugs.

Might not call it a vaccine per se. Just makes the body reaction less.

People want that binary ok or not okay thing psychologically — while the real medicine world is miles and miles away from that for all sorts of diseases and disorders.

They’re fairly unlikely to get their wish.

When dad joked he wanted us to buy him a sports car, we got him a nice Matchbox replica for his birthday. :)
 
denverpilot said:
People want that binary ok or not okay thing psychologically — while the real medicine world is miles and miles away from that for all sorts of diseases and disorders.
Click to expand...
This. Not only in medicine. People want binary for all sorts of things.

Groundpounder said:
The CDC just said that 6% of all Covid-19 deaths were in people that did not have a underlying symptom. That is less than 10,000 deaths. We shut the country down for that. What a complete joke.
Click to expand...
If we continue the discussion along these lines, this will be another locked thread.
 
If I may (and I do believe that I'm well within the rules for POA), let me say that the definition of "underlying medical condition" is a pretty wide net... almost to the point of making it a non-discriminater. I wonder how many people (especially us old guys) don't have an underlying medical condition.

My point being that looking at the 6% number could easily lead to incorrect conclusions.

I think that is as far as I can go with this subject on POA
 
Bob Noel said:
If I may (and I do believe that I'm well within the rules for POA), let me say that the definition of "underlying medical condition" is a pretty wide net... almost to the point of making it a non-discriminater. I wonder how many people (especially us old guys) don't have an underlying medical condition.

My point being that looking at the 6% number could easily lead to incorrect conclusions.

I think that is as far as I can go with this subject on POA
Click to expand...

You're completely right. When hypertension counts as an underlying condition, it becomes a meaningless term. OTOH "cases" has also become meaningless.

Delete if beyond TOS.
 
The data released also doesn’t have any correlation between whether the condition was severe, mild, actually part of the cause of death or just present...

There’s a reason Docs use words along with codes and numbers as patient records.

Once you remove the words, the numbers have no context.

I dug into the actual report a tad and searched for the respiratory categories. There was something like 12, about half had the word “chronic” in front of them. The other half were vague without any way to determine if they were involved or the person just had them.

The household nurse and I were taking about it and basically they’re just hunting for whether there’s a huge correlation to any particular co-morbidity. Doesn’t look like it in the actual report. Just looks like the “duh” we already knew, new illnesses affect already ill people - AND cause new illnesses in people.

An example. Coded as Covid + COPD. It makes a big difference if the patient notes say...

“Patient reports minor COPD for years, doesn’t appear to be main cause of death.”

Vs ...

“Patient family says history of severe COPD and patient admitted already on 10L of supplemental O2.”

Can’t see that in a spreadsheet / numbers analysis. Not the way this one is designed, anyway.

Also didn’t correlate to age. A huge natural correlation to existing conditions we already know about. Very rare to be past 50 without any “chronic” conditions.

About all one can glean from it is that viruses like to go after the sick, or make you sick. A total duhhhhhhhhhhh for everyone.

Covid / Pneumonia - duuuuhhhhhhhhh
Covid / Heart failure - duhhhhhhhhhhh
Covid / Constipation - hold up there Chief!

LOL. Have to go read the individual numbers and so far all the math nerds are finding it pretty dull. No big new revelations.
 
Everskyward said:
Straining causing cardiac arrest. ;)
Click to expand...

I feel like this should say “stroke”. LOL

You remember all the local news stories here about someone dying of “snow shoveling” every year!

It wasn’t the 6000 cheeseburgers they ate and the 150 extra lbs. It was the snowstorm. Haha.

Sadly I personally knew a guy who died trying to lift a frozen sandbag that had frozen to his pickup truck bed one winter, because it triggered his first and last heart attack. He was a nice guy too. Wrote books on Matlab which is fairly crazy software and he knew how to make it do things I never thought possible.

Family found him dead in the garage behind his pickup truck. Dead of “frozen sandbag.”
 
Groundpounder said:
The CDC just said that 6% of all Covid-19 deaths were in people that did not have a underlying symptom. That is less than 10,000 deaths. We shut the country down for that. What a complete joke.
Click to expand...
A huge percentage of COVID patients require hospitalization for their symptoms. The fear was that COVID patients were going to overrun hospitals here the way they did in Italy. Looks really bad in the news. So they shut down the country. No joke, sorry. I really wish it was.
 
Groundpounder said:
The CDC just said that 6% of all Covid-19 deaths were in people that did not have a underlying symptom. That is less than 10,000 deaths. We shut the country down for that. What a complete joke.
Click to expand...
It's been well known since day one that people who are compromised in some way are far more likely to die from it than people who are completely healthy. just because someone has diabetes or is obese or has moderate heart disease doesn't mean they did not die from covid. You can live a long time with those afflictions otherwise.
 
steingar said:
The fear was that COVID patients were going to overrun hospitals here the way they did in Italy. Looks really bad in the news. So they shut down the country. No joke, sorry. I really wish it was.
Click to expand...


This didn't even come close to happening here.

Now the positive cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations are pretty much flat
 
bnt83 said:
Now the positive cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations are pretty much flat
Click to expand...

This is because we are finally starting to test and close to the frequency we should have been testing since the beginning; i.e., we are getting testing for asymptomatic and mild cases so they will (hopefully) isolate and not spread it around.
 
GaryM said:
North NJ came pretty close to maxing out hospital capacity a few months ago; I believe downstate NY did as well. Happily, that's no longer the case.
Click to expand...


I get that in some of those areas like Vegas, where the ratio of beds per 100k people are lower, they did.


Here is a tiny slice of SE Nebraska, Bryan Health has the 24 hr trauma unit in Lincoln and where I almost died, I pick them for stats because management themselves are reporting these numbers on their YouTube channel press conferences and its pretty easy to pick # out. It looks like their total capacity across all campuses are 684 beds, small comared to catholic health initiatives which looked like they have 2000 total beds, but I did not find their covid stats.

While going through these videos they did report two patients that were holdovers, on ventilators but no longer testing positive and were dropped from the ventilator and positive count. They still could be on vents today for all I know.

upload_2020-8-31_10-1-42.png
 

Attachments

  • upload_2020-8-31_10-1-11.png
    upload_2020-8-31_10-1-11.png
    27.2 KB · Views: 4
Last edited:
Another factor to consider when you are looking at "available ICU bed" type numbers, is that many hospitals instituted emergency plans and received emergency authorizations to expand their ICU capacities starting back in March. What you see as "available ICU beds" may not be what is the normal condition for an area, but reflective of the emergency-use numbers.
 
Jeff Oslick said:
Another factor to consider when you are looking at "available ICU bed" type numbers, is that many hospitals instituted emergency plans and received emergency authorizations to expand their ICU capacities starting back in March. What you see as "available ICU beds" may not be what is the normal condition for an area, but reflective of the emergency-use numbers.
Click to expand...

Right, or even remotely staffed for that many occupied beds. That is what they reported so I used it.

i really thought there would be a large obvious spike after the July 4th holiday weekend but they had more in may than in this table I put together.
 
Another reason the re-infections/co-morbidities are getting more scrutiny is they are trying to work out a universal matrix to compare and track covid and future viruses. For example, there have been ongoing discussions that the current use of a simple death rate per 100K does not take into consideration people densities, general health, etc. of various populations at the regional, national, and global levels.

One study I read focused on obesity (BMI 30+) and how that specific underlying condition affected the death rate in various countries. One factoid that I did not know was that given the US is a modern, western country it ranks #1 globally in obesity. So when applying those stats to the US population it shows about 99M people are in that high-risk covid category.

The interesting part was that just the US 99M obese group in more than the entire populations of Germany, France, or the UK which are normally used to compare covid mitigative actions to the US. The study believed this type of disparity clouds the analytical models being used. But there appears to be more reports like this coming out both publicly and privately.

Seems about the only common thread between these reports/discussions when it comes covid facts is there are only two that they know for sure: 1) you will get covid and live, or you will get covid and die.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top