Possible scenario for Covid-19

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I wouldn't consider the wash post to be a reliable source (nevermind requiring a login).

But where would they get numbers for Maskachusetts? Mass.gov doesn't report people that have recovered.
You asked for reports of people who never developed symptoms, and I supplied one. If you don't like the source, that's your lookout. There are many others, I just grabbed the first one I found. Again, broaden your information sources.
 
isn't it interesting that we can easily find reports of new confirmed cases and probable cases, but where are the reports of people recovered? Where are the reports of the people that never develop symptoms?

I believe covidtracking.com datasets have numbers recovered for states in the US.
 
The way to do that of course is to look at both sites and check their sources. In my experience, this can take some effort and time.
I only know the location of one of the sites, so at this point, there's nothing to compare.
 
The world has been here before. This is not new. And, we're a lot more technologically advanced than back then. The only disadvantage today is that social media exists and everyone is an "expert".

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I believe covidtracking.com datasets have numbers recovered for states in the US.

And I know for a fact that Maskachusetts doesn't report recovered patients. So, what's the source of the data for Maskachusetts?
 
And I know for a fact that Maskachusetts doesn't report recovered patients. So, what's the source of the data for Maskachusetts?

There are only two outcomes for a case: recovery or death. You can impute the number of recovered by taking cases out of the total 21 days after they were added. That number is what tells you about the current state of the epidemic, cumulative number of cases is meaningless for that.
 
where are the reports of people recovered? Where are the reports of the people that never develop symptoms?
FYI: Since recovered/asymptomatic cases are not being equally counted there are a number of models developed and being developed to calculate that data. Past preliminary modeling that is available publicly put recovered cases at the 97.5% to 99% of the confirmed covid cases as that data is generally collected. However, the asymptomatic side is a bit more varied from 18% to 30% with some as high as 70% of the population are asymptomatic. While there a quite a few studies/reports in the public domain most of the data is from the Jan-Apr months. Unfortunately the newer studies/models are still behind various private search engines or other pay walls.
 
The world has been here before. This is not new. And, we're a lot more technologically advanced than back then. The only disadvantage today is that social media exists and everyone is an "expert".
You have a problem with groupthink?
 
The world has been here before. This is not new. And, we're a lot more technologically advanced than back then. The only disadvantage today is that social media exists and everyone is an "expert".
Social media is not the problem and your photo is evidence of that. There was no social media in 1912 and yet people ignoring mask requirements was enough of an issue that some places had to threaten people with jail time for non-compliance. Social media isn't the problem, people are.
 
Rapidly headed toward this. Both via data manipulation and often just good old fashioned human error in all of it.

Why anybody would have expected the entire thing to be riddled with mass human error on a worldwide scale as large as the pandemic itself, considering we all KNOW how that works in everything else in life... boggles me.

It’s becoming easy to take ANY data set other than the Doc notes per patient individually and find omission, methodology, math, or other common errors in all of them now. And we ALL know even the Docs make errors in the source material.

Well at least I assume we all do. Nobody’s read their medical record and said, “That’s not even the symptom I talked to him/her about! I wonder if their transcription service clicked on the wrong patient.” LOL.

Nobody’s going to have this story “right” even a decade from now.

9ebf628b15e44a92170c0aa8876f8f1b.jpg
 
The world has been here before. This is not new. And, we're a lot more technologically advanced than back then. The only disadvantage today is that social media exists and everyone is an "expert".

6214018_6327.jpg
Am i the only one that has serious doubts about the authenticity of said photo?
 
Am i the only one that has serious doubts about the authenticity of said photo?

The photoshopper didn’t curve the font enough for the cardboard curve. LOL. Obvious.

The coming scourge of the internet is so called “deepfake” videos. Some amazing software out there if you want to make fakes from nothing but plenty of source material of a particular talking head or whatnot. Free even.

Humans still think the internet is reality. And humans in real reality can’t even be trusted to get it right on a witness stand under oath when they’re TRYING to tell the truth about something that happened an hour ago.

It’s like knowing from a book what a stalled wing is, and actually applying that knowledge. We ALL know humans are a disaster of inability to not have an instinctual emotional reaction to what is very likely completely fake. Otherwise Hollywood wouldn’t exist. But applying it to that video or image on the internet that was literally fed to us by an algorithm... nope.
 
Rapidly headed toward this. Both via data manipulation and often just good old fashioned human error in all of it.

Why anybody would have expected the entire thing to be riddled with mass human error on a worldwide scale as large as the pandemic itself, considering we all KNOW how that works in everything else in life... boggles me.

It’s becoming easy to take ANY data set other than the Doc notes per patient individually and find omission, methodology, math, or other common errors in all of them now. And we ALL know even the Docs make errors in the source material.

Well at least I assume we all do. Nobody’s read their medical record and said, “That’s not even the symptom I talked to him/her about! I wonder if their transcription service clicked on the wrong patient.” LOL.

Nobody’s going to have this story “right” even a decade from now.

9ebf628b15e44a92170c0aa8876f8f1b.jpg
Even with good, controlled, data, it's sometimes hard to 'prove' things. Much of the data on Covid is the result of many uncontrolled experiments. Hospitals don't report cases the same way, neither do cities, counties, states, or countries. In my opinion, it's definitely not 'nothing', even though I know very few who have been affected and I live in a city. Something is going on, but it may be better or worse than what we have been told, not to mention that we have been told a whole spectrum of things by different people and agencies. The thought that, in the end, all this data can be adjusted in order to come to some concrete conclusion doesn't seem possible. Also how one person reacts to the virus or any treatment will be different than how someone else reacts. It may end up to be statistically predictable, but predictions are not the same as results. That's like saying a percentage of GA flights result in accidents. It doesn't determine whether or not a certain individual will. I think people want more certainty, one way or another, than is possible.
 
Rapidly headed toward this. Both via data manipulation and often just good old fashioned human error in all of it.

Why anybody would have expected the entire thing to be riddled with mass human error on a worldwide scale as large as the pandemic itself, considering we all KNOW how that works in everything else in life... boggles me.

It’s becoming easy to take ANY data set other than the Doc notes per patient individually and find omission, methodology, math, or other common errors in all of them now. And we ALL know even the Docs make errors in the source material.

Well at least I assume we all do. Nobody’s read their medical record and said, “That’s not even the symptom I talked to him/her about! I wonder if their transcription service clicked on the wrong patient.” LOL.

Nobody’s going to have this story “right” even a decade from now.

9ebf628b15e44a92170c0aa8876f8f1b.jpg
The CDC has done some analysis on additional mortality. It suggests that the total impact on the death count is significantly higher than the Covid-19 counts that any of the counts that are currently being shown in the news.
 
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Why not both?
Because the math doesn't add up. Remove social media and leave only people, the problem still exists. Remove people and leave only social media, the problem disappears.
 
Because the math doesn't add up. Remove social media and leave only people, the problem still exists. Remove people and leave only social media, the problem disappears.

So technically... Covid is removing a small part of the problem? ;)

Ahh there’s always a silver lining... LOL!
 
The CDC has done some analysis on additional mortality. It suggests that the total impact on the death count is significantly higher than the Covid-19 counts that any of the counts that are currently being shown in the news.

<sigh> That "analysis" done by some reporter assumes that COVID-19 is the only variable.

Could there be maybe some other reasons for higher death counts than otherwise expected?

And don't forget that it takes time to get deaths reported.
 
Am i the only one that has serious doubts about the authenticity of said photo?

I dunno if its fake or not. But, here's more examples of the photo being used :

https://www.history.com/news/1918-spanish-flu-mask-wearing-resistance

https://www.theguardian.com/artandd...spreading-the-message-about-the-1918-pandemic

My point is that this is not new. We've been through similar circumstances before. And, it'll happen again. The only difference is the speed of communication (whether its quality communication or not).

I'm not an expert, but I happen to know a hell of a lot of experts seem to flock to POA.
 
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I haven't been able to find an example of the photo without the sign. The original photo is allegedly in a collection at the Mill Valley Public Library. I suppose that if someone was sufficiently interested, they could contact the library and ask someone to look at it.

https://californiarevealed.org/islandora/object/cavpp:70110
 
Social media is not the problem and your photo is evidence of that. There was no social media in 1912 and yet people ignoring mask requirements was enough of an issue that some places had to threaten people with jail time for non-compliance. Social media isn't the problem, people are.

Of course, you're right. Social Media is not "the problem". But, it is 'A' problem. And, IMHO, it only exacerbates other problems, like pandemics, politics, and interpersonal relations.
 
I haven't been able to find an example of the photo without the sign. The original photo is allegedly in a collection at the Mill Valley Public Library. I suppose that if someone was sufficiently interested, they could contact the library and ask someone to look at it.

https://californiarevealed.org/islandora/object/cavpp:70110
I’m no period expert, but the whole photo seems odd to me. Their clothing seems Ill fitting and more like props than real clothes.
 
Because the math doesn't add up. Remove social media and leave only people, the problem still exists. Remove people and leave only social media, the problem disappears.
I hope you're being deliberately facetious or obtuse. Social media is driven by people. Social media amplifies the worst aspects of humanity. Based upon your logic, I gather you agree that gun control of any kind is not the answer to preventing gun violence. After all, remove guns and people will still find ways to be violent. Remove people...the problem disappears.

Your point is....ummmm..... kind of......nonsensical?
 
Social media is driven by people. Social media amplifies the worst aspects of humanity.

Technically social media itself doesn’t amplify anything but what the screeching monkeys want amplified.

If someone wants to amplify good things with it, they can.

Thus.... more funny memes!!!!! :)
 
I hope you're being deliberately facetious or obtuse. Social media is driven by people. Social media amplifies the worst aspects of humanity.
Social media amplifies humanity. Period. So its going to amplify the best and the worst more or less equally.

Based upon your logic, I gather you agree that gun control of any kind is not the answer to preventing gun violence.
Nope. I am a gun owner but I am also all for better and more effective gun control.

Your point is....ummmm..... kind of......nonsensical?
I'll agree with you here. I was probably being a little too simplistic. Here's my main point. The way I see it, social media existing and being what it is enables bad things in people to come to light the same way that women existing and being what they are paves the way for rapists to come to light. But we would never (or at least should never) consider making the statement that women existing is part of cause of rape.
 
There are plenty of people around here freaking out but few seem to be following the reported statistics IMHO.

(Bryan Medical Center 200 ICU bed capacity with 161 ventilators)

June 29 - Bryan reported only one COVID patient on a went. 4 total COVID patients admitted.

(Que the July 4 holiday weekend traveling, lake parties, house parties, drinking etc. Looked like very few people cared about COVID risks based on what I saw, there were so many cars in the parking lot at Walmart on July 3 I just turned around and left)

Aug 6 - Bryan Medical Center CEO press conference --> 2 COVID patients on a vent and 9 total admitted.

Meanwhile, highly leveraged colleges are panicked about losing football season income.

Cities heavily invested in entertainment venues are losing money faster than a celebrity in divorce court.
 
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There are plenty of people around here freaking out but few seem to be following the reported statistics IMHO.

(Bryan Medical Center 200 ICU bed capacity with 161 ventilators)

June 29 - Bryan reported only one COVID patient on a went. 4 total COVID patients admitted.

(Que the July 4 holiday weekend traveling, lake parties, house parties, drinking etc. Looked like very few people cared about COVID risks based on what I saw, there were so many cars in the parking lot at Walmart on July 3 I just turned around and left)

Aug 6 - Bryan Medical Center CEO press conference --> 2 COVID patients on a vent and 9 total admitted.

Meanwhile, highly leveraged colleges are panicked about losing football season income.

Cities heavily invested in entertainment venues are losing money faster than a celebrity in divorce court.
July 7, they reported 5 cases
https://www.1011now.com/2020/07/07/...rease-in-covid-19-patients-over-coming-weeks/
Here's the lancaster county stats:
https://lincolnne.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/79eb4e7acdce4c9aa368c39604abe0cd
 
Even I was surprised that the Aug 6 inpatient count wasn't higher than are, we are 5 weeks post July 4th holiday weekend now.

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I'm surprised it is as high as it is. Not many people live out here.
 
Have to disagree. I don’t think there is any good scientific evidence the proposed interventions would have worked. The case of New Zealand is anecdotal and a very different situation with an isolated island with a relatively small population.

I also suspect it will invade New Zealand eventually as well or they will need to vaccinate everyone. You can only keep up draconian isolation and quarantine for so long.

But I understand you have a different theory about all this.
Hong Kong has 7.5 million people and 55 deaths. Shares an intimate land border with the original epicenter. Somehow they managed to not only control the virus, but have since still stayed relatively virus free. They had a recent spike, but the peak of that spike was 10 times lower per capita than our constant levels and is now 20 times lower after only 3 weeks.

If we were doing as well as them we would have 2500 deaths at this point and not 165,000. That is quite a difference.
 
Hong Kong has 7.5 million people and 55 deaths. Shares an intimate land border with the original epicenter. Somehow they managed to not only control the virus, but have since still stayed relatively virus free. They had a recent spike, but the peak of that spike was 10 times lower per capita than our constant levels and is now 20 times lower after only 3 weeks.

If we were doing as well as them we would have 2500 deaths at this point and not 165,000. That is quite a difference.

As I said, the recent paper in Lancet showed that it is unlikely coercive lockdowns are a causative factor in reducing Covid-19 mortality. These individual comparisons are essentially anecdotes.

There must be other factors that are responsible for some countries having lower deaths OR they are simply earlier in the virus spreading there and it will eventually happen. Another explanation in this case is that Hong Kong is controlled by China and since they are a totalitarian regime with a censored media their reports can not be trusted. (Why would anyone trust what such a government says?)
 
5) Numbers aren't accurate for multiple reasons. For example, in the US, there is a financial gain by reporting positive cases, so dishonest organizations would tend inflate the numbers
You mean to tell me that there isn’t a certain government official who has said all along that he doesn’t want the US numbers to be too high and pushed for lower testing and reporting our our cases? I seem to remember statements like “I’d rather have the people stay” offshore, he explained, “because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship.”

Plus the US case numbers are 5x to 20x lower than actual cases according to CDC reports.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/201...cial-labs-interactive-serology-dashboard.html
 
There must be other factors that are responsible for some countries having lower deaths OR they are simply earlier in the virus spreading there and it will eventually happen. Another explanation in this case is that Hong Kong is controlled by China and since they are a totalitarian regime with a censored media their reports can not be trusted. (Why would anyone trust what such a government says?)

Certainly with China there is a possibility that they just aren’t reporting accurate numbers. That would be consistent with their earlier claims that the virus didn't start in China and it all came from the US. I basically discount information out of China as inaccurate.

from what I’ve looked at comparing the US to the EU, the issue is certainly the detection of cases. The IFR (infection fatality rate) is about 3x higher in the EU than in the US, but the PFR (population fatality rate) is almost identical. The ways to explain this is a too low infection number reported in the EU, a too high number in the US or a little of both. In any case, the reporting of asymptomatic positive cases is probably where that difference comes from and is probably not important from a statistics standpoint.
 
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