PA 28-235 Down in Illinois, 4 Dead, 5/31/2020

NTSB just published the prelim. All major components were located in the 455ft debris field. Also NTSB depicts a left 360 turn followed quickly by a tight 360 right before impacting ground / end of data points. A couple good images in the prelim, and also mention of a GoPro that is being analyzed (video footage would be very helpful in the investigation).


Longtime lurker, just made an account. I own a 235 so looking at this one carefully.

Thank you Kyle. I’ve owned my 235 for 22 years... I hope you enjoy yours as much as I do mine.

https://app.ntsb.gov/pdfgenerator/R...tID=20200531X82140&AKey=1&RType=HTML&IType=LA

Sad event. If the weather was IFR I would bet on spatial disorientation leading to loss of control..... this looks like that, but doesn’t match the weather profile. The only other SWAG that I have is CO poisoning leading to LOC.
 
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Given the altitude (5600') I would think if a wing separated it would be further than just a couple hundred feet from the rest of the wreckage, but that is pure speculation. We could compare the data to known in-flight breakups to see what the common distance is.
 
From this photo it looks pretty clear that the wings stayed attached. Honestly, that does make me feel better about the whole thing

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Any chance that they were just enjoying flying around on a pretty day and decided to do some low "fun flying" around that pond? Looks like they successfully did a very tight turn around that point and proceeded to head back the other way when they crashed

Not making an accusation, just asking. Couple good friends up flying having a great day? Spot your buddy's ranch and lake and decided to have some fun, and then miscalculate a turn? There have been videos here posted of people flying around rivers and ponds with some low level maneuvering

The GoPro, if running, and survived, might reveal some very tantalizing clues

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From this photo it looks pretty clear that the wings stayed attached. Honestly, that does make me feel better about the whole thing

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I don't think that's how the wreckage was found. Look at the wreckage diagram to see exactly where all the major parts landed.
 
From this photo it looks pretty clear that the wings stayed attached. Honestly, that does make me feel better about the whole thing

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You beat me to posting that picture. I can’t even imagine a 6K per minute descent other than 1) an IMC loss of control, 2) loss of consciousness, or 3) an intentional dive. The 235 is a stable ship. (Edited to acknowledge inflight breakup as evidenced by the wreckage diagram.)
 
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I don't think that's how the wreckage was found. Look at the wreckage diagram to see exactly where all the major parts landed.
It looked very suspicious how "intact" it is. But I thought it was a big no no to move wreckage bits, they should be photo'd in situ? Still, the level of destruction on those wings does not look like the other wing failures, which show an almost intact wing and a clean break right at the fuselage. I'd also imagine if there was real credibility to the wing separation theory we would have seen that more clearly mentioned in the link (unless I missed it)
 
You beat me to posting that picture. The wings stayed on to impact. I can’t even imagine a 6K per minute descent other than 1) an IMC loss of control, 2) loss of consciousness, or 3) an intentional dive. The 235 is a stable ship.

Intentional is beginning to cross my mind as well, although I really hate to speculate to that degree.
 
if a wing separated it would be further than just a couple hundred feet
FWIW: Aside from the distance, usually the wing would stay intact. Considering both wings failed in pieces, seems to indicate a sequential failure due to structural overload, in addition to the tail feather separation.
 
Given the altitude (5600') I would think if a wing separated it would be further than just a couple hundred feet from the rest of the wreckage, but that is pure speculation. We could compare the data to known in-flight breakups to see what the common distance is.

Based on the picture in post #84, given the flight path, it is easy to how if the wing did separate and fell relatively straight down, there are several places along the path that could have happened and still have it come down very near the final crash site.
 
From this photo it looks pretty clear that the wings stayed attached.
There is nothing attached to anything in that photo. With all major components located within 475ft it would certainly suggest that everything stayed on until impact or very shortly before. But yeah, there is nothing in that photo itself that would lead me to conclude the wings stayed on all the way down.
 
Based on the picture in post #84, given the flight path, it is easy to how if the wing did separate and fell relatively straight down, there are several places along the path that could have happened and still have it come down very near the final crash site.

Why would a wing fall relatively straight down? They flutter around like a leaf. Is it possible that they landed in the same place? Yes. Is it likely? No. Not at all.
 
It looked very suspicious how "intact" it is. But I thought it was a big no no to move wreckage bits, they should be photo'd in situ? Still, the level of destruction on those wings does not look like the other wing failures, which show an almost intact wing and a clean break right at the fuselage. I'd also imagine if there was real credibility to the wing separation theory we would have seen that more clearly mentioned in the link (unless I missed it)

Once NTSB takes the initial photos in situ, they move the pieces. I think what happened is once photos were taken in situ, they moved everything and laid it out.

That's a good point, if the wing separated at the spar I would definitely expect it to stay in 1 piece. The way they BOTH separated in pieces makes me believe it was big time overstress and not wing separation.
 
Why would a wing fall relatively straight down? They flutter around like a leaf. Is it possible that they landed in the same place? Yes. Is it likely? No. Not at all.

That was my thought. And the fluttering would cause it to land much further than just a few hundred feet from the rest of the components. They are fairly high during the initial maneuver.
 
You beat me to posting that picture. The wings stayed on to impact. I can’t even imagine a 6K per minute descent other than 1) an IMC loss of control, 2) loss of consciousness, or 3) an intentional dive. The 235 is a stable ship.

Fairly certain that image is not how the wreckage was found. Look at the wreckage diagram. Some was near the pond, some on the other side of the barn, etc. In my opinion that image was the pieces all placed back together after they were documented at their original location, to show that everything was present.
 
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This was the initial wreckage layout, approximately 450 ft between all the major components.
 

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Fairly certain that image is not how the wreckage was found. Look at the wreckage diagram. Some was near the pond, some on the other side of the barn, etc. In my opinion that image was the pieces all placed back together after they were documented at their original location, to show that everything was present.

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Kyle, thanks. I was working from my iphone, missed the wreckage diagram. I take back my prior comments... 6K per minute descent broke this ship apart. I still believe that a loss of one wing is an unlikely cause, but clearly this ship exceeded its limits.
 
This was the initial wreckage layout, approximately 450 ft between all the major components.
Look how close the inboard sections of the wings are. While the wings may have at some point separated I highly down this is an ERAU style accident
 
Secondary stall/spin?

The high speed, spiral lateral track, and 7,000fpm descent rate doesn't imply a stall spin, though it could result from a botched recovery from a spin which turned into a spiral dive. I don't think the data suggests a wing separation as the precipitating event either.
 
The change in spiral direction is quite interesting. I'd say this looks like a graveyard spiral, except in those they normally occur in IMC, and the direction doesn't change. As Mr Spock used to say, "Fascinating"
 
Look how close the inboard sections of the wings are. While the wings may have at some point separated I highly down this is an ERAU style accident

Yup agree. Next question is what caused the sudden decent rate and resulting overload.
 
Sorry. Occam's razor tells me that a few good friends flying on beautiful day, and that circular pattern there around the pond, maybe they were tooling around

That GoPro footage, if it's available, will be valuable
 
Why would a wing fall relatively straight down? They flutter around like a leaf. Is it possible that they landed in the same place? Yes. Is it likely? No. Not at all.

How many wings have you lost in flight?
 
How many wings have you lost in flight?

Thankfully zero. I most likely wouldn't be around to post if that number was any higher.

How many have you lost in flight to see that they fall straight down?

I have had model airplanes break wings in flight and I've seen videos of aircraft losing wings in flight. They flutter down like leaves. Heavy leaves to be sure, but aerodynamically they flutter around.
 
Sorry. Occam's razor tells me that a few good friends flying on beautiful day, and that circular pattern there around the pond, maybe they were tooling around

That GoPro footage, if it's available, will be valuable

I hope you are wrong... but your theory is as good as any at this point.

I’ve obviously never spun a 235... but I have done many in a 140. Things went to hell in a hand basket after the reversal from the left turn.
 
Thankfully zero. I most likely wouldn't be around to post if that number was any higher.

How many have you lost in flight to see that they fall straight down?

I have had model airplanes break wings in flight and I've seen videos of aircraft losing wings in flight. They flutter down like leaves. Heavy leaves to be sure, but aerodynamically they flutter around.

Exactly, hence the word "relatively" (as opposed to an object still being propelled by a thrust vector and still moving laterally due to that propulsion). If the crash sequence was in a straight line and the wings were closeby, I would agree that one could sumarily dismiss the possibility of separation.

However, this aircraft passed directly over the crash site at least one time and very nearly directly over the crash site once after that. It is not at all unreasonable to think that anything dropped during those last two passes could easily end up in the same vicinity.
 
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I hope you are wrong
I hope so too.. but that descending swooping turn thing is a fairly common "we're joyriding" thing to do. There was just a video posted here recently (incidentally also about a crash) where the pilot was going up and down a river, climbing, then doing a swooping low turn. It's a relatively "aggressive" maneuver
 
Speaking of that river accident in TN, I harken back to that 88% ‘pilot error’ statistic. Yes, maybe there was a control malfunction, ‘turnbuckle failure’ or something similar. At 4000+ AGL one has room & time to work things out, normally. Once the plane is under control many like to talk on the radio.

Tragic no doubt. I also say it’s good that a wing wasn’t found a mile from the crash site.
 
Holy Moly. A stall spin scenario wouldn’t result in that flight path, correct? That’s a fairly defined right turn and only shedded approximately 100’ through the first 180 degrees. And then what? He got in some descending right turn that tore the plane apart? CO poisoning almost seems like a likely possibility.

He also had a Stratus onboard so hopefully can get a more accurate data picture. I’ll continue following this thread. I don’t fly that type of aircraft but I am interested in learning what caused this sequence of events.
 
Didn't Piper have a turnbuckle AD for the elevator cables ?
 
What is to stop the wing from landing in the vicinity of the rest of the crash?

In general, the wing is going to flutter down like a leaf. It probably wouldn't go that far from the point where it departed. The fuselage and other wing would probably carry on in a pseudo ballistic manner for a bit further. The odds of a wing that separated at any meaningful altitude landing adjacent to the rest of the wreckage are small. Also, the investigators will be able to look at the damage to the wing and tell if it fell off and fluttered to the ground or if it was attached when the aircraft impacted the ground.
 
As for the photo. It says 'wreckage layout', I believe that means they moved the parts back into the shape of an airplane to aid in figuring out whether they have all the bits.

Based on how close the bits and pieces are together, it would seem to suggest that plane came apart towards the end, not at altitude.
 
the wing is going to flutter down like a leaf.
FWIW: it depends on how you define "flutter." How anything falls from altitude depends on direction of velocity, mass, drag, and gravity. People a lot smarter than me can actually map out debris fields based on those factors. For example, in this accident, there's a reason the fuselage/engine ended up ahead of everything else by the pond. Short of a flat spin with zero forward velocity how all the pieces lay is a very telling story. In my experience, as to wings themselves, most wings that depart in flight usually have fuel aboard that affects its trajectory where it follows the lawn dart mode once the drag streamlines the wing. The majority of debris that I know of that actually "flutters/floats" down after a catastrophic airborne failure is cowling, papers, luggage items, etc.
 
In general, the wing is going to flutter down like a leaf. It probably wouldn't go that far from the point where it departed.

Did you see the image of the flight path?
 
Did you see the image of the flight path?

Point is, the odds of it landing very near the fuselage are low, assuming the wing departed at altitude. It *could* happen, but isn't likely.
 
That 3,000ft descent in 26 seconds doesn’t look like a spin but it sure is a fast way of getting down. Very curious as to the outcome of this accident.
 
As for the photo. It says 'wreckage layout', I believe that means they moved the parts back into the shape of an airplane to aid in figuring out whether they have all the bits.

Based on how close the bits and pieces are together, it would seem to suggest that plane came apart towards the end, not at altitude.

That is pretty much the impression I have. Hard pull up at the end and just pulled the plane apart.
 
I was flying today on a longer trip, 5500 msl in WI. I saw several flocks of larger fowl not that far beneath my altitude. I was actually mildly surprised at how high they were, white birds. For the most part, birds are less a threat higher up.
 
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