Corona Virus Numbers???

Status
Not open for further replies.
There are a number of folks I've personally heard about who have had flu-like symptoms that they had looked at and determined they weren't that - and were sent home. Not saying they were or weren't, but there are some really odd things and I for one am of the opinion this has already spread a lot farther and isn't contained at all.
 
This is my take on the current situation.

Mass hysteria - happens all the time. A person is smart, people are dumb. Doesn't take much to create a panic. Just look at the bread shelves before a snow storm or the water aisle before a hurricane.

Media hysteria - Again happens all the time. Nothing better sells better than gloom, doom, and despair...except for maybe blood and guts.

The government response - This one is baffling me honestly. Aside from a little political posturing in an election year, a full blown government reaction is coming with pretty well bi-partisan support. The government is taking action that they know good and well will cause deep socio-economic harm, but what they know of the threat of this virus is taking precedent. I can only assume they are hearing or seeing things from China, Italy, the CDC, and god knows who else, that we the general public and universal skeptics aren't seeing.

I consider myself a universal skeptic. The media hype and public panic I could easily dismiss. The governmental reaction, at least has me puzzled, if not concerned. If you would have told me two weeks ago that this is where we would be today, I wouldn't have believed it. Makes me wonder what is coming in the next days/weeks/months.
 
JGoodish said:
Just to be clear regarding my posts: I am
Not arguing that I’m right and the doomsayers are wrong, but when you start throwing out stats like “beds per person” without both explaining the relevance AND citing data which suggests that the stat is material to the argument, it ends up being another red herring.

Last I saw, the WHO stats were showing that just over 80% of confirmed cases exhibited only mild symptoms. It’s probably a good risk to say that this number is higher based on unidentified cases. I would assume that there may be unidentified cases which are fatal also, but there doesn’t seem to be a run on hospitals at this point. So I’m trying to get a more solid basis for the hysteria.
Click to expand...
This keeps popping up. The WHO didn't say 80% exhibit mild cases. They said 80% exhibit mild or moderate symptoms. Moderate symptoms likely include pneumonia. Pneumonia in many cases are going to require hospitalization. The WHO didn't break down what percentage of that 80% is mild and what percentage is moderate. That also means that 20% exhibit severe or critical symptoms. Those are very bad, definitely requiring hospitalization. That's a whole lot of hospital beds (which was the point that @tspear was making). The US only has 45,000 Intensive Care Unit beds spread out across the country. It wouldn't take much to overwhelm that capacity. Italy has more beds per 1000 people than we do.

Country -- Hospital Beds/1000 people
South Korea -- 12.3
China -- 4.3
Italy -- 3.2
USA -- 2.8
 
Jeff Oslick said:
It's almost like South Korea prepared for a war...
Click to expand...
Maybe they saw World War Z, saw how bad the zombies kicked their ass and prepared for this one. I wonder if Israel has already walked off a city or two :)
 
@Sluggo63 - thanks for sharing the video and sorry it took so long to respond. When I first saw his name it was so familiar. He is a UofM guy who studies CWD around here, never realized how many other disease epidemic events hes worked and studied.

First thing that ****es me off. Everyone says wash your hands. According to this guy it's a nice practice but ain't gonna help. Of course everyone is saying the mask doesnt help so two weeks ago I figure it's stupid and dont bother. He says the good ones will actually help. Aarggh.

From his talk and the John's Hopkins stuff it would seem my lame guess of 10:1 (undetected to tested and verified) was low. Looks like the experts are thinking 25x or 50x, not 10x. So if Italys current numbers are used wed be going from 6 per 1000 to around 30 per 1000 total or 3% infected. I'm still not seeing the larger numbers such as half the population, etc. But getting more freaky.
 
WannFly said:
What’s up with people stock piling toilet papers??
Click to expand...
Johnny Carson must be laughing his skeletal *** off right now.

Back in the shortage-era of the '70s, he made a joke about that toilet paper was going to be next. People took him seriously, and TP was in short supply for a while.

Ron Wanttaja
 
On the other hand if the state marketed it as the only way to prevent the chinese flu was diet and exercise, I bet most people would have been like “uhhhhh, well, like it probably won’t kill me, I mean doesn’t sound that bad....uhhh honey change the channel maybe the Kardashian’s is on” lol
 
WannFly said:
What’s up with people stock piling toilet papers??
Click to expand...

Fiber to add to meals.?? :lol::lol:

Walmart here in town, you can still get water but the food aisles are getting emptier. Pretty much picked clean today and no promise of when the stock will be replenished.

My wife is worried, we are down to 50 pounds of rice.

But TP.... I have no clue why TP is being hoarded and also being use as cash.... maybe because we don't have trees, so no leaves for back up TP.
 
If the available products shortages in the stores isn't resolved soon (6 months or so) I may have to resort to MREs for a few months. Praying it doesn't continue long enough to require breaking into the C-RATS.... :D
 
James331 said:
... Overall everyone is dooooooooooooomed, so might as well give me all your stuff.
Click to expand...

You were the only one here who anticipated this well in advance. Hard to beat a sailboat for "social distance" :)
But where on that little boat are you going to put all our stuff? ;)
 
James331 said:
On the other hand if the state marketed it as the only way to prevent the chinese flu was diet and exercise, I bet most people would have been like “uhhhhh, well, like it probably won’t kill me, I mean doesn’t sound that bad....uhhh honey change the channel maybe the Kardashian’s is on” lol
Click to expand...
Story making the rounds of the early days of the epidemic. A store set up three displays, with sanitizer gel, surgical masks, and hand soap. Guess which of the three did NOT sell out.

Ron Wanttaja
 
gkainz said:
If the available products shortages in the stores isn't resolved soon (6 months or so) I may have to resort to MREs for a few months. Praying it doesn't continue long enough to require breaking into the C-RATS.... :D
Click to expand...

First-In, First-Out? Eat the oldest crap first, lol.
 
GRG55 said:
You were the only one here who anticipated this well in advance. Hard to beat a sailboat for "social distance" :)
But where on that little boat are you going to put all our stuff? ;)
Click to expand...

I don’t know, but a couple of weeks ago I laid in a month supply in the bunker. Water, food, TP, ammo...we be set. See ya all in a month.
 
So I think it’s officially the end of the world. Just came back from Costco and Walmart, here I’m freaking fargo where there ONE confirmed case in all of ND, there are no TP, soap, any kind of sanitizing wipes or gel nowhere to the found. The food isle is getting empty too.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
This is just my opinion but I think this is a media manufactured “crisis”. If it weren’t for the media hyping it, I think it would be a ho hum event. And then the politicians are piling on.
Click to expand...

I hear this thought a lot, but I really struggle with it. The CDC, NIH, and WHO are not treating it as a ho hum event. Neither is the Anthony Fauci. I follow how we can blame the news for editorializing, but should the message from science be withheld just to keep a passive population?
 
This all has to be a tough thing for gov officials trying to do the right thing. Has to be tough getting the right messaging out knowing that some people are going to panic and hoard no matter what and some people are going to ignore it no matter what.

I'm personally not making any changes to my routine but I'm not high risk population and the weekly grocery shopping is the most contact I have with large groups of people in a typical week anyway.
 
Its been blowing and snowing out of the north. Going on 2 days . Self quarantined with not another living soul(except wife and dog) for a mile in any direction. But dang got to go to big city in couple days for wife's heart catherization . Reports there that the same nonsense of TP and empty shelves . What the heck ? Schools closing for 2 weeks, border with Canada possibly being shut down The country has gone Bat S*** Crazy.
We live South of Canadian border 5 miles in rural Montana farm ranch country. Calving losses are greater then virus victims at this point .
There is a 24 hour crossing point with lots of Federal and Brokerage jobs.
Some are worried as they live hand to mouth in a paycheck to paycheck situation.
School Teachers worried it may mess up summer vacation . They get paid on contract for 187 days of which a few are PIR days. So 2 weeks shut down does not affect their pay but rather their summer plans.
The other people who are able to work from home via Internet not so badly affected.
Interesting times for sure.
 
write-stuff said:
I hear this thought a lot, but I really struggle with it. The CDC, NIH, and WHO are not treating it as a ho hum event. Neither is the Anthony Fauci. I follow how we can blame the news for editorializing, but should the message from science be withheld just to keep a passive population?
Click to expand...
Thing is Russ, there is a difference between responsible reporting and hyping it beyond all reason. I think the media has reached the latter.
 
wanttaja said:
Story making the rounds of the early days of the epidemic. A store set up three displays, with sanitizer gel, surgical masks, and hand soap. Guess which of the three did NOT sell out.

Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...
Around here, the liquid-soap shelves are picked clean, while bar soap remains. Apparently the masses don't know the difference between liquid soap and hand sanitizer.
 
So the Ohio governor says there are currently 100,000 infected in his state. The biggest ratio of detected to undetected I've seen was 25x to 50x according to John's Hopkins.

Let's go with the 50:1 number to give the governor the most undetected cases. Maybe I have this wrong but that would mean there would have to be 1,960 currently detected cases in Ohio. But 5hrs ago there were 26 detected cases.

And if there were 1,960 detected cases I would think at least 5% are over 80 or have special medical conditions. That would mean just under 100 (98 to be precise) would be hospitalized. But it's not clear if their 26 active known cases are all in the hospital. So that number doesn't add up either. WTF.
 
The stores around me that don't have the 'popular items' on shelves have them in storage and behind the counter. They're protecting their supply from crazy people. You have to ask, it's worth a shot.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Thing is Russ, there is a difference between responsible reporting and hyping it beyond all reason. I think the media has reached the latter.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I hear that a lot, too. Probably one of those opinion things. I suspect there is a relationship between people who don't think this is a dangerous situation and those who think it's being overhyped by the press.

If it's nothing to worry about to begin with, then yes, any stories with a warning message could be considered hype.
 
write-stuff said:
If it's nothing to worry about to begin with, then yes, any stories with a warning message could be considered hype.
Click to expand...

Well there’s also the issue of everyone knowing long ago everything anyone will ever know about this thing until it’s over... but they’re covering it 24-7 with. Instant hyperbole like they know something new. LOL.

“Breaking news! There’s still a virus and it’s still virulent and it kllls some folks!!!”

And now to our live reporter licking a patient...
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Thing is Russ, there is a difference between responsible reporting and hyping it beyond all reason. I think the media has reached the latter.
Click to expand...

I have yet to meet an infectious disease or public health doc that isn’t panicky as all hell.

Precautions are wise, and maybe the focus is good for the average population. It seems a lot of members on the various forums I discuss are focused on the public reactions that seem to be abnormal.

It’s true that most of the average population is on some level of minor freak out to OMG Zombies! in response to the past week.

It’s almost like the whole of the country just found out they’re 24hrs from a major hurricane hitting and there’s no time for evac.
 
Well I take a 40min boat ride to work everyday. My company is taking everyone's temperature before they are allowed on. You are turned away if you have a fever, and told to visit a doctor.
 
Sinistar said:
So the Ohio governor says there are currently 100,000 infected in his state. The biggest ratio of detected to undetected I've seen was 25x to 50x according to John's Hopkins.

Let's go with the 50:1 number to give the governor the most undetected cases. Maybe I have this wrong but that would mean there would have to be 1,960 currently detected cases in Ohio. But 5hrs ago there were 26 detected cases.

And if there were 1,960 detected cases I would think at least 5% are over 80 or have special medical conditions. That would mean just under 100 (98 to be precise) would be hospitalized. But it's not clear if their 26 active known cases are all in the hospital. So that number doesn't add up either. WTF.
Click to expand...

One possible explanation is that infections are trending to require hospitalization around 7-9 days after first symptoms. And symptoms come 5-10 days after infection. So you could see all those people in the hospital in two weeks.
 
GRG55 said:
You were the only one here who anticipated this well in advance. Hard to beat a sailboat for "social distance" :)
But where on that little boat are you going to put all our stuff? ;)
Click to expand...

Frankly the boat has been great on so many levels since I got it.

I debated it years ago before I got my house, should have done it back then.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top