What are your “outs”

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AA5Bman

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He who ironically no longer flies an AA5B
I’ve been thinking a lot about wintertime IFR flying in the mountain states, which is usually a no-go because of icing potential. But whenever these conversations come up, a common refrain is “always have an out.”

What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
 
AA5Bman said:
I’ve been thinking a lot about wintertime IFR flying in the mountain states, which is usually a no-go because of icing potential. But whenever these conversations come up, a common refrain is “always have an out.”

What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
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Plan? Every flight I’ve done. Use? Been lucky, never.
 
In winter, my out is generally VFR conditions.

Last winter I was doing a lot of trips between Durham NC and Pittsburgh. On the leg north, icy clouds in Durham would generally keep my grounded. But the usual icy clouds up north often meant ‘go’.

The last trip where I had to use my ‘out’ was one where there was a solid 4,000’ chunk of icy clouds from Lynchburg to well north of Pgh. My plan was to fly north until the forecast break in the clouds was spotted, descend, and fly underneath into KAGC. When I got to Erie it was clear that the cloud break was over Lake Erie somewhere.

My out was returning to Durham. It was a long 5 hours of flying, half of which was engaging but half a bore, which is not a bad thing for an ‘out’. I never took off my sunglasses off and I think I actually got a bit of a tan.




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AA5Bman said:
I’ve been thinking a lot about wintertime IFR flying in the mountain states, which is usually a no-go because of icing potential. But whenever these conversations come up, a common refrain is “always have an out.”

What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
Click to expand...
An out is usually VMC, either below you or off to one side. It can also be warmer temps below or (less usable) above.

Having an out is part of it, but another part is knowing the difference among different types of icing.

Clear or mixed icing means supercooled large droplets (SLD), which are terrifying, even in small amounts. Go nowhere near these in a piston aircraft, even with FIKI. Stay on the ground. Only turbine planes can handle SLD, and they do so by covering their wings with goop on the ground, then mainly by using their excess power to climb above it as fast as possible and their excess speed to create friction and warm the wing a bit. SLD is worst ahead of a slow-moving fall/winter/spring warm front (where it can still be well above freezing on the ground), but can also occur because of various types of lift (e.g. wind blowing over a ridge), or from lake effect (cold, dry wind, usually from the NW, blowing over open water like the Great Lakes). The one saving grace of lake effect is that it usually tops out by 8,000 ft with clear skies above, so you can overfly it if it's in the middle of your route; other types of SLD just mean stay home.

Rime icing is small-droplet icing, which isn't as bad, but you still don't want to be in it continuously unless you have FIKI. It occurs mainly in strato-cumulus-type clouds. If there's a thin SC layer around 3-6,000 ft, I don't worry about climbing through that without FIKI, as long as it's clear above and the forecast is for no more than light rime. There are usually clear breaks between those SC clouds, too, so there's a way down if you need it.

The potential trap with rime is when there are multiple layers of strato-cumulus, which is also common in winter in the northern US and southern Canada. You climb through the first layer, assuming that you'll find a clear space to cruise in between layers. That's usually true, but sometimes the bottom layer will rise and the one above you will come down until they join up, and that's when you need to have a good exit strategy. Flying IFR between layers in winter is an IFR equivalent of the VFR sucker hole, and I wouldn't recommend it without FIKI unless the layers are very far apart (e.g. a low SC layer, and a cirrus layer >10,000 ft above).

Rime won't generally accumulate fast like clear/mixed, but if you linger too long in it, you'll end up with an opaque, frosted-over windshield, which can be disconcerting. This is really the only place where FIKI in a piston plane improves your options, because you'll have a way to keep a spot on your windshield clear of rime, and pop off any that accumulates on the wings, so you can fly for longer in light/moderate rime icing.

My rule of thumb is to use my OAT probe (which is in the middle of the windshield in front of me, and painted black) as an ice detector. Thin surfaces ice up first, and as soon as I see rime starting to form on the probe, it's time to exit (different altitude, different route, etc). Don't wait around to see if things get better. Also, if I've seen any ice, even just a trace, I tie something around my flap handle to remind me not to use any flaps on landing.

D (from Canada)
 
David Megginson said:
...My rule of thumb is to use my OAT probe (which is in the middle of the windshield in front of me, and painted black) as an ice detector. Thin surfaces ice up first, and as soon as I see rime starting to form on the probe, it's time to exit (different altitude, different route, etc)...
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I took this picture last winter. Raining (mist) at ground level, while I was on a climb through 7000 feet I see this (so it was time for a descent):

IMG_1623.JPG
 
Weekend Warrior said:
I took this picture last winter. Raining (mist) at ground level, while I was on a climb through 7000 feet I see this (so it was time for a descent):

View attachment 82419
Click to expand...
Excellent example -- thanks for sharing it. I also react very fast when I see clear icing that that on my OAT probe.
 
David Megginson said:
An out is usually VMC, either below you or off to one side. It can also be warmer temps below or (less usable) above.

Having an out is part of it, but another part is knowing the difference among different types of icing.

Clear or mixed icing means supercooled large droplets (SLD), which are terrifying, even in small amounts. Go nowhere near these in a piston aircraft, even with FIKI. Stay on the ground. Only turbine planes can handle SLD, and they do so by covering their wings with goop on the ground, then mainly by using their excess power to climb above it as fast as possible and their excess speed to create friction and warm the wing a bit. SLD is worst ahead of a slow-moving fall/winter/spring warm front (where it can still be well above freezing on the ground), but can also occur because of various types of lift (e.g. wind blowing over a ridge), or from lake effect (cold, dry wind, usually from the NW, blowing over open water like the Great Lakes). The one saving grace of lake effect is that it usually tops out by 8,000 ft with clear skies above, so you can overfly it if it's in the middle of your route; other types of SLD just mean stay home.

Rime icing is small-droplet icing, which isn't as bad, but you still don't want to be in it continuously unless you have FIKI. It occurs mainly in strato-cumulus-type clouds. If there's a thin SC layer around 3-6,000 ft, I don't worry about climbing through that without FIKI, as long as it's clear above and the forecast is for no more than light rime. There are usually clear breaks between those SC clouds, too, so there's a way down if you need it.

The potential trap with rime is when there are multiple layers of strato-cumulus, which is also common in winter in the northern US and southern Canada. You climb through the first layer, assuming that you'll find a clear space to cruise in between layers. That's usually true, but sometimes the bottom layer will rise and the one above you will come down until they join up, and that's when you need to have a good exit strategy. Flying IFR between layers in winter is an IFR equivalent of the VFR sucker hole, and I wouldn't recommend it without FIKI unless the layers are very far apart (e.g. a low SC layer, and a cirrus layer >10,000 ft above).

Rime won't generally accumulate fast like clear/mixed, but if you linger too long in it, you'll end up with an opaque, frosted-over windshield, which can be disconcerting. This is really the only place where FIKI in a piston plane improves your options, because you'll have a way to keep a spot on your windshield clear of rime, and pop off any that accumulates on the wings, so you can fly for longer in light/moderate rime icing.

My rule of thumb is to use my OAT probe (which is in the middle of the windshield in front of me, and painted black) as an ice detector. Thin surfaces ice up first, and as soon as I see rime starting to form on the probe, it's time to exit (different altitude, different route, etc). Don't wait around to see if things get better. Also, if I've seen any ice, even just a trace, I tie something around my flap handle to remind me not to use any flaps on landing.

D (from Canada)
Click to expand...

Pretty much hit the nail on the head there. My out is to have VMC conditions that I can get to, preferably without having to shoot an approach to get there, as the approach could take too long to setup and execute. A 2,000+ foot ceiling in most flat parts of the word will allow you to descend through it while enroute.
 
I just flew from Portland OR to Los Angeles CA yesterday. I had two major routes under consideration, and I waited until both were "reasonable" because of ice.

One route is what I flew, basically "Interstate 5 South", lots of options and places to put down if things go sour, however, high MEAs. This is Medford, Sacramento, Bakersfield, and over the grapevine into LA. I'm non turbo so if I lose an engine, I will drift-down to 9k or less, and there are places on the route where I'd need to do some clever flying, mostly around Mt. Shasta. Mt. Shasta is also where I've had most of my ice encounters, so I pick my battles around there very carefully.

The main alternative is basically eastern oregon, and down the owens valley east of the high sierras (Bend, Reno, Bishop, and over Palmdale from the north) -- high chance of VFR, but punishing winds and turbulence (especially earlier this week), and quite sparse with few places to put down and get services.

My third "out" is the coastal T-routes offshore. Fun flying, but it's been cold enough lately that there was a risk of ice down to the 4K MEA or so. Normally it's my backup.

In my weather planning, I considered all 3 of these routes, and if I had one solid one and one "reasonably OK" backup, I'd go. Due to low temps and a bunch of icing pireps starting at 5K and continuing up to 13K, though, I delayed the flight 3 days.

I am not de-iced, I only have alky props. I made sure the system was in good working order for the flight. Of course, I ended up needing none of it.

Bonus: by waiting I got a tasty 20kt tailwind and was able to surf it on south, using a higher altitude and saving about 30 gallons of gas. Zoom Zoom! The savings paid for drinks last night. :D
 
I should add that all of my info about icing best practices previously was for relatively flatland/rolling hills east of the Rockies. High mountains are much less forgiving, and if you start to ice up in a pass/valley, there's no way out, so I'd do a zero tolerance for any type of icing forecast (even small chance of light rime) in e.g. the Alps, Rockies or western Canadian/US coastal ranges.
 
We investigate all manners of aircraft claims/crashes so we're pretty damn conservative. Personally, MVFR is as risky as I go in winter since all I have is prop deice. If it's overcast enroute and icing I don't go. Our company requires and encourages us to stay IFR current and proficient but we never HAVE to fly our plane. We can always take a rental car or airline(or both) if we want. I guess years of flying to plane wrecks and smoking craters will do that to you.
 
I won’t do IMC in the mountains in a single. I’ll do IFR maybe in VMC. That’s my first “out”.

Once aloft, in real mountains the first and best “out” is always downhill. It’s knowing techniques that always allow you to turn downhill that can be the hard lesson. (Don’t fly in the center of valleys and canyons. Get your ass over against the trees.

Whether on the upwind or downwind side may depend on actual observed up and downdraft behavior but typically downwind side has air rising as its lifted to go up and over the ridge and will provide the smallest turn radius if you have to turn around. Depends on the wind and the valley. Use ororgraphic lifting to your advantage. Also understand adabatic and katabatic winds.

Etc.

Icing in non-FIKI is another no effing way in big mountains.

And in many aircraft unless you’re on O2 you’re only a couple thousand AGL if that. There’s 58 14,000’ peaks and over 580 13,000’ peaks that all blend together west of here.

Generally my answer is no. IFR in light aircraft and that much high terrain is dumb. That’s my main out.
 
The typical need to actually use a planned out is due to weather being worse than forecast, and usually that means something along the line of going from "fairly acceptable weather" to "pretty awful weather". In a situation where you know the weather will be marginal along the route one trick is to reserve a rental car at an airport along the way, and either continue on to the destination or land there and re-evaluate your options. At that point you're safely on the ground with a car available and you can drive the rest of the way and return for the plane when the weather clears. That decision is much easier when made on the ground than it is when en route. (For instance, Kobe Bryant could have landed in Van Nuys and been driven 30 miles to the sports center, even after flying past it and seeing the terrain and lower ceilings further along the route. It could have been a planned out, which is always easier to exercise.)

I find that option particularly useful when taking passengers. I'll tell them before hand that if the weather looks bad we have a better option than continuing through it and that driving part of the way to get there is a a safer option. Passengers like the overt safety plan and most rental car companies don't charge for a reservation, so it's cheap insurance for a good option.
 
For meaning, I don't need to go any further than, to quote 91.103, the regulation on required preflight actions, "alternatives available if the planned flight cannot be completed." Except perhaps for an IFR flight in completely VFR conditions, it's something I consider every IFR flight (and most VFR cross countries too). One aspect is the destination alternate the IFR regs require; the other is consideration of the route itself, the impact of weather, and potential deviation destinations.

Someone already mentioned "downhill" in a mountain IFR flight (which once came in very handy). On a coastal flight, it might be the location of better weather inland, preferably with services. And while I might defer the final diversion based on then-current weather, at least a potential direction is something I think about in advance.
 
k9medic said:
I read this on the forum - "night, IMC or mountains, pick one of the three." For a single engine aircraft, it makes perfect sense.
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I think the biggest problem flying a single-engine plane in IMC over the mountains wouldn't be the risk of engine failure, but rather, limited choice of altitudes for coping with unexpected icing, turbulence, etc. With MEAs >=14,000 ft, You want something that can get comfortably into the flight levels, and that usually means pressurisation. There just aren't many pressurised piston singles, and the ones that exist, like the Cessna P210 or early pre-turbine Piper Malibus, are ... well ... challenging to maintain and operate (as Richard Collins wrote about in many articles).
 
AA5Bman said:
What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
Click to expand...

https://www.southwest.com

If there is any chance that I will be in ice then having a couple refundable tickets is my out. :D Suppose to fly to GA in two weeks - long range weather makes me think the tube is the right answer but we will see.
 
AA5Bman said:
I’ve been thinking a lot about wintertime IFR flying in the mountain states, which is usually a no-go because of icing potential. But whenever these conversations come up, a common refrain is “always have an out.”

What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
Click to expand...

An out means a way to get to where there isn't ice. What that is depends on the situation you're in - Which hopefully you considered well before you took off.

Many times the out is going to be above-freezing VMC below the cloud deck, with plenty of airports that have ceilings above the MIA. Sometimes - Especially around warm fronts - The out is to climb into warmer air above, though you need to catch the ice quickly and climb immediately so that you have the performance available to do so (turbos help too).

Since you asked about the "mountain states"... Yikes, that's a situation where available performance is already at a premium. Learn to use SkewTs and stay the heck out of the IMC, because you don't have a whole lot of outs.
 
Gosh this is a scary thread to read. It must be stressful at times to be a real pilot!
 
AA5Bman said:
I’ve been thinking a lot about wintertime IFR flying in the mountain states, which is usually a no-go because of icing potential. But whenever these conversations come up, a common refrain is “always have an out.”

What does “an out” mean to you? What are some scenarios where you had to plan or use your “out”?
Click to expand...
1) If there is high icing potential, Out 1 is not to launch.
2) If you're going to go, and don't have anti-ice or de-ice gear, use your temps aloft to stay out of the freezing levels (verify with your OAT)
3) If you're flying in freezing temps, use your XM/ADS-B NEXRAD to avoid any precipitation (Pitot heat on and Carb heat on at the first sign of carb ice)
4) If you're flying and start picking up any ice, make an immediate 180 and head back to where you had no ice and land.
5) If you're accumulating ice in an average GA aircraft, don't try to climb out of it unless you're already near the cloud tops. As you pick up ice, you'll gain weight and lose lift, and remember that icing gets worse the closer you get to the cloud tops. If you have altitude hold, turn it off and hand fly.
If you haven't seen it, watch this:
6) If you're landing with any ice, carry extra speed on the approach and avoid using flaps on landing.
 
If I'm pretty sure I'm going to pick up ice. I just don't go. If there is some potential but unknown I make sure there is somewhere I can go where the MEA will be below the freezing level. On one occasion I started to pick up some ice but I had arrived just a hour earlier (didn't pick up any ice)and I knew exactly where the tops were so I opted to continue climbing.
Each flight is going to be different for you. Sometimes the best experience is the flight you don't make. When I cancel a flight I pay extra attention to how the weather trends are what Pireps are popping up. I make perfectly safe flights today that I would have and should have (with what I knew) cancelled a few years ago.
 
In non FIKI planes stay below the clouds, land if needed, in a skywagon or PA18 that doesn’t take much.

That said, flying in a ton of ice in FIKI planes and seeing it build before it gets popped off, I’m VERY conservative when it comes to ice in non FIKI planes
 
Single engine, IFR, mountains and ice. Sounds like a good time for cigars and bourbon.

At one point in my life I wouldn’t think anything of such flights. I have become spoiled. If I’m not burning jet fuel I don’t like anything other than a fun vfr flight.
 
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