GA Boom and Bust

brien23

brien23

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Brien
Are we in the Boom period of GA and if so how much longer can it go. Aircraft that used to be high time at 5,000 hours are now the normal, trying to find a good Cessna 172M with a mid time engine at a affordable price a challenge. Gas price seems to be stable but parts and labor FBO price are up and up a lot. People thinking this Boom is the time to cash in and gouge GA could be the death of the Golden Goose.
 
My best guess is what you are seeing is a training boom driven by young people who would like to be professional pilots.

If you look at the FAA Civil Airmen Statistics, the single largest age group of private pilots is 60 to 64. There is also a bulge in the ranks of private pilots at age 20-24, and commercial pilots at age 25-29.

My suspicion is that most of those young people have their eyes on a flying career, and most of those who aren't able to do so will stop flying. Some will stay in GA, but with the tendency for most of the better paying jobs to be clustered around a limited number of large cities doesn't bode well for recreational flying. The other big headwind I see is that the legacy fleet is getting depleted and not being replaced with new airplanes.

I could be completely wrong, but what I suspect will happen is that the number of pilots flying personal GA will continue to slowly decline until the boomers age out. What people will be flying 20 years from now, I can't say.
 
There is a massive, worldwide pilot shortage. The US and Canada is the world epicenter of flight training due to the lower cost and much larger GA fleet to train with, with South Africa being the only real competition (it is actually cheaper to fly there and the weather is not unlike the good weather places in the US where people fly). Listen to the accents on the radio in California, Texas, Arizona and Florida and you'll know that the training isn't just folks headed into the old US regional to big airline route. That has caused a substantial increase in GA, because most people who train to fly start in GA.

172s are easy and well known, so they were snapped up first and are ridiculously overpriced. Cherokees have also gone up in price. This means that actual GA pilots don't see the point of splashing out big money on slower planes, so better aircraft have started seeing a market again. The other problem is that brand new airplanes are overpriced. Even Piper's new cheaper Cherokees are too expensive, let alone the eye watering prices to get something fast. So people buy older planes and invest something in their avionics.

Also, part of it is just that the internet lets us talk to each other. It isn't just folks spitballing at the airport anymore.

steingar said:
Economy goes up, so does GA. Economy come down, so does GA. We're the proverbial canary in a coal mine.
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Previously, that was true. Right now, not so much. There is a massive pilot shortage thanks to the fairly substantial increase in flight training costs, the ATP requirement for all 121 pilots and the parsimonious pay at regionals that has only recently started to increase.
 
Our local FBO has gone from four or so ratty old Cherokees, to (under new ownership and management) eight 172s, a 182, an Archer, Cherokee 180, an Arrow, a Bo, a Seneca and a Duchess. I'd say business is good, at least at the moment. We'll see how well they do when the bankers and brokers start to eat their young.
 
Substantial increases in energy cost and/or banking /securities fraud has preceded every recession for the last 50 years and aviation follows the economy.
 
When the massive airline hiring ends and the furloughs and weeping and gnashing of teeth begins, the light GA sales market collapses.
 
brien23 said:
Are we in the Boom period of GA and if so how much longer can it go. Aircraft that used to be high time at 5,000 hours are now the normal, trying to find a good Cessna 172M with a mid time engine at a affordable price a challenge. Gas price seems to be stable but parts and labor FBO price are up and up a lot. People thinking this Boom is the time to cash in and gouge GA could be the death of the Golden Goose.
Click to expand...

kicking dead horses or stirring the pot?

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/ga-going-to-be-great-year.119450/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/time-to-sell.113591/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/ga-pilot-decline.112134/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/will-general-aviation-survive.100240/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/pessimist-view-of-ga.89309/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/ga-boom-or-bust.88559/

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/student-starts-pilot-retention.78201/
 
The other thing that tracks quite well to the health of GA as it is related to ATP training is the average size of patterns flown. When a whole bunch of piston singles are flying 5-mile wide patterns you can bet the ATP training business is booming.
 
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