How do you judge VMC?

[MauleSkinner]

Other than shadows, there really is no way to judge your distance from a cloud, AFAIK.

 

[Ravioli]

Is there a formula like this for figuring out what the tops are for say an overcast layer??

If there were, it would be in a book we should have read and it would be a question on the test we have to take. [Isn't lapse rate still a PPL written exam test question?]

 

[mwagg737]

Easy way to judge distance:

If everything is white... In the clouds
If things are visible... Below the clouds.


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[MauleSkinner]

If there were, it would be in a book we should have read and it would be a question on the test we have to take. [Isn't lapse rate still a PPL written exam test question?]

Does that give you tops?

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Mainly what I was looking for, and many here have posted very helpful ways to evaluate this, is to get a mental picture of what it is going to be like to fly on a day with some weather. Some of this I will just have to experience.

Every pilot develops their own personal weather minimums. These minimums will often change as we gain experience. We start with high minimums, they get lower over time as we gain experience. For many of us, they then get a bit higher as we gain the dreaded 'well I never wanna do that again...' type of experience. I'm not endorsing that, but it does seem to be a common path.

 

[avi8tor]

Does that give you tops?

No, it dosent I believe he is talking about the standard temperature lapse rate up to FL360. A good tool to get a good idea of cloud bases and tops is a Skew T Chart or sometimes referred to as a ruc sounding chart. It plots the temperature and dewpoint of a specific area by altitude. When the two lines meet that is your cloud base, where the two lines split are the tops of the clouds.

 

[MauleSkinner]

No, it dosent I believe he is talking about the standard temperature lapse rate up to FL360. A good tool to get a good idea of cloud bases and tops is a Skew T Chart or sometimes referred to as a ruc sounding chart. It plots the temperature and dewpoint of a specific area by altitude. When the two lines meet that is your cloud base, where the two lines split is the tops of the clouds.

I believe he was talking about tops, not bases, since he used the word “tops” in the post you replied to, not “bases”.

 

[exncsurfer]

As I mentioned, I do always read weather reports, METAR, TAF, NOTAMS, etc, and have been working on looking for trends to build up experience.

Mainly what I was looking for, and many here have posted very helpful ways to evaluate this, is to get a mental picture of what it is going to be like to fly on a day with some weather. Some of this I will just have to experience. Sometimes, maybe most, clouds for instance are contained at certain altitudes, or range of alt, and other times varied throughout, peppered all over and where a pilot might have to change course a lot to avoid.

Also, so far I find it very hard to judge distance from clouds. I hope this comes with time, but without feedback as to what the distances really were (verification somehow) I can’t really improve on that.

Not sure how I would judge, except someone here mentioned shadows on the ground, where I could get an idea when I know the ground distance, can see the clouds shadow and my own shadow.

But there were many many helpful posts here. Thanks!

Disclaimer, 100hr pilot here. The legal limits are usually too lenient for most personal minimums. Judging while in flight, if you have to wonder if you're legal, its probably getting too close. Nobody is out measuring distances so don't get hung up so much about judging what 2000 ft horizontal from you is exactly. For example if you see a hole and are contemplating going through and you're not sure if there is room for 2000 feet on either side of you, the hole is probably too small and if that is the biggest hole you see its probably too much cloud cover for transitioning over/under anyway. My 2 cents. Under a ceiling you can get pretty close legally, don't stick your head in it. Go outside when the clouds are low and get a sight picture. If the METAR says 1000 go outside and see what that looks like, try to picture half that distance closer. On top of a few/scattered layer, imagine how far down the land looked when you were at pattern altitude, now try to put the cloud shelf at or greater than that distance.

 

[N1120A]

Personal minimums are just that - personal. You decide what you are comfortable with in a given situation. JFK Jr., in a too often cited example, was flying in VFR conditions the entire way to the time he spiraled out of the sky and into the Long Island Sound. He was also flying on a moonless night with fairly significant haze, and decided to turn off his autopilot. The weather he was flying in would have been within the personal minimums, as reported, of almost any PPL - especially one who had advanced fairly well along in instrument training, as he had. The lack of moonlight, however, and flying over water, meant he lost basically any and all horizon and was essentially in IMC, despite being in VMC. Then again, I've had to scud run under cloud layers to maintain VFR (not to mention stay out of some ugly, icy clouds), prior to getting my instrument rating, at 2500' on a route I fly all the time. That was an operation I'd do over again any time, because I knew where I was going, had a well equipped plane and had the visibility to handle it.

Depends on the part of the country.
Southern California, that's hard IFR. In Alaska, that's good VFR.

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You clearly don't fly much in Southern California during marine layer season, especially when we get non-convective rain. We get lots of hard IFR, and that ain't it.

 

[Shepherd]

GBR sits in a valley surrounded by mountains that are 4-5 miles away. If I can see the tops of the hills I can fly in the pattern. Once I'm up I decide whether it's go/no go.
Sort of takes the stress out of the problem.
Come to think about it, all the airports in this area have the same sort of "indicators".
Finally, an advantage to flying in the northeast.