What is the general state of GA?

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Brandon Hicks

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I've noticed a few threads on POA that seem to allude to the overall state of GA being in decline and I wondered A) if I'm reading into this correctly and if so, B) Why you all think that is?

I'm new to this forum, new to general aviation, new to this "hobby" (or whatever it is) so my perspective is very limited and still very much that of an "outsider", despite the warm welcome you all have shown. I have certainly had some of my preconceptions challenged as I have gotten more serious and educated and I have some of my own naive theories on why that may be but I'm more interested in hearing the opinions of those of you that have been around aviation for a while than I am of boring you all with my own opinions, lol. I'm also interested to hear what attracted people to GA in the first place.

Thanks all.
 
Brandon Hicks said:
I've noticed a few threads on POA that seem to allude to the overall state of GA being in decline and I wondered A) if I'm reading into this correctly and if so, B) Why you all think that is?
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The decline is quite pronounced, in particularly in the number of pilots, both absolute and per capita. The graduation rates are collapsing, too. In 2000, 27,000 people gained Private certificate. In 2016, only 17,000.
 
My somewhat uninformed opinion based on what I’ve seen in the 6 years I’ve been into this and reading about things....

The peak for GA was between post-WWII and sometime towards the late 70s. Since then popularity has dwindled, I strongly think due to high costs more than anything else.

Yet for those of us who have wanted it and have the means it keeps going. The draw is strong and the infrastructures we use for fun are still quite necessary for commerce and other needs. I recognize we may be past the golden age but I think it’s also alive and well and will continue to be for quite some time.
 
cowman said:
The peak for GA was between post-WWII and sometime towards the late 70s. Since then popularity has dwindled, I strongly think due to high costs more than anything else.
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I'm sure cost is part of it and certainly was/is for me. Young people in particular seem to be struggling more than ever with student loans and home ownership as well which will obviously come first. It is interesting however that the current state of some other expensive "hobbies" is better than ever right now though. The exotic/luxury sports car companies, for example, are setting all sorts of sales records and the collectible/historic auto market seems to set new auction records almost weekly. Demand is very strong for other "expensive" vehicles so it's hard to place all the blame on costs alone.

Also, experimental aircraft like the Cobalt Valkyrie, Icon A5. etc. seem to have very little difficulty raising ungodly amounts of money on concepts with little to nothing to show for them and with very little chance of commercial success? There is obviously still some interest in aviation by investors or non-aviation enthusiast no? Are people just too busy these days to bother with a PPL?
 
Brandon Hicks said:
... Are people just too busy these days to bother with a PPL?
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It is far too expensive and far too inconvenient.

The cost has outpaced inflation. When I started in 1990 you could rent a 172 for $43 dollars an hour and the instructor was $15. Today that same 172 cost $125 and hour and the instructor is $50-60. So basically the cost has tripled. While the dollar value has only about doubled in the same time frame ($1.00=$1.95).

Also at least where I am in 1990 every little airport had a fleet of small planes you could rent. Now the only places that have club or rental operations around here are in the bigger cities.
 
DFH65 said:
It is far too expensive and far too inconvenient.

The cost has outpaced inflation. When I started in 1990 you could rent a 172 for $43 dollars an hour and the instructor was $15. Today that same 172 cost $125 and hour and the instructor is $50-60. So basically the cost has tripled. While the dollar value has only about doubled in the same time frame ($1.00=$1.95).

Also at least where I am in 1990 every little airport had a fleet of small planes you could rent. Now the only places that have club or rental operations around here are in the bigger cities.
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Agree with all of that.

Though I still prefer to drive 45 minutes to the airport, pre-flight and load for 30 minutes, fly for 1 hr to Nashville, and pay the much higher gas bill... rather than drive for 2.5 hrs with road rage.
 
I'd have to go dig up the exact numbers but at one point I looked up what a new 172 would have cost in the 50s and then put it into an inflation calculator to see what it would cost today. The result was a new 172 cost around $75,000 in today's money back in the late 50's. What are they now, around $300,000? We're paying the $75 for 40 year old used airplanes. What happened? If a new plane could be had for under $100,000 imagine how cheap the used market would be. Flying would be downright affordable!
 
cowman said:
I'd have to go dig up the exact numbers but at one point I looked up what a new 172 would have cost in the 50s and then put it into an inflation calculator to see what it would cost today. The result was a new 172 cost around $75,000 in today's money back in the late 50's. What are they now, around $300,000? We're paying the $75 for 40 year old used airplanes. What happened? If a new plane could be had for under $100,000 imagine how cheap the used market would be. Flying would be downright affordable!
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If you think about it though and the trend continues, that really turns the idea of a plane as a depreciable asset completely on its head, relative to inflation. Not only are they a lot of fun but also a great store of value (try that one on the wife!). Screw savings, buy a plane! EDIT: This is actually very similar to the classic car market as well where many desirable classics are selling for many times more than they originally cost and there are cars that could be bought for $10,000 in the 90s that are sometimes worth millions today.

@DFH65 I'm not diagreeing with you but if CFI's were making way more (via inflation) than what they were in the 50's, there wouldn't be any airline pilots left. They may be charging 4x as much but I'd guess their "take-home" has tracked inflation along with most other occupations. Their expenses, insurance, overhead, etc. probably accounts for the rest of it. Is over-regulation, litigation, etc. responsible for the astronomical increase in the costs of these planes? Certainly the companies aren't doing any better and most seem like they are struggling to survive?

Not trying to pick or start any fights here, just thinking out loud here and trying to wrap my head this.
 
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Peer folk in my age group (late 30s early 40s) without a professional pilot background who are otherwise cursorily intrigued by it, simply do not have the economic means or the time to devote to PPL training, and ongoing aircraft ownership. They do consistently choose to be house poor as a rationalization for the former (they've gone so far as to suggest it is not only a legitimate need, but that I as an aircraft owner who chooses to not have more children or finance more house, am derelict in my responsibility to my dependents for not making the housing choices they do). That's obviously where I part company with the cohort. Beyond that nit pick, I certainly can validate there isn't much slop for people in my general position to participate in this avocation in earnest.

The new aircraft pricing structure is a 50K/yr millionarie, tax writeoff model from where I sit. It's not an honest pricing model meant to play with the private market, especially for those of us who reject the notion of financing a toy. It is invariably tethered to financing access to an even greater degree than even our national housing ponzi scheme pricing structure. That's why it greatly outpaces inflation when compared to 1950 pricing, regardless of whether it has net technological improvements to support the price baseline increase or not. Add the role fleet sales plays into it (commercial operation bound airplanes) and the rest is history.

Older folk here focus on their end, which is the notion that if only the powers that be allowed them the facilitation of medical allowances, they could save us all. I appreciate the sentiment, but boomers are not gonna be here in 30 years, so I don't consider them the panacea they consider themselves to be. Frankly they had a good run with the prevalence of the GI Bill cash cow during the 60s-80s and cheap airplanes mass produced to the degree it makes Cirrus look like chumps. The future is in allowing access to younger people, not the boomer+ cohort.
 
GA is fine, it’s not what it used to be due to large government, high taxes, and the “homebody” culture people are into today, same can be seen in hunting and camping and sailing and such.
 
@Brandon Hicks The CFIs are on par with inflation at the local school here a friend is a CFI the school charges $60 an hour and I think he gets $33 of that so it is right about double is the same as the inflation rate between then and now.

I assume the CFI's I was paying back in the day were getting the majority of the $15 bucks but that may not be true.
 
Also worth adding that medical is an issue as well. So many of these kids are on ADHD, anti-anxiety and anti-depression meds and with the current FAA standards they will never likely never fly.
 
Just taking a moderately informed wild guess, but I would say the high cost of new planes is a huge barrier for entry. Since not many new planes are therefore produced, the supply stays low and value of used planes appreciates. You have to be absolutely crushing it to afford a new plane like a Cirrus or even Cessna.
 
30 years ago individuals could get many of the same tax savings as corporations. eg. expense deduction for loan interest, expense if commuting more then 50mi, lower barrier for schedule C small business deduction, etc.

Only corporations get any of these tax incentives today.
 
Someone today posted a short analysis suggesting that aviation was indeed just as expensive in days gone past as it is now, if not moreso. In days gone past there wasn't quite the inventory of aged airframes. I still think the US GA pilot population was a direct result of Uncle Sugar training all those pilots in WWII. The farther we get from WWII the fewer our numbers, its just simple attrition.
 
NordicDave said:
30 years ago individuals could get many of the same tax savings as corporations. eg. expense deduction for loan interest, expense if commuting more then 50mi, lower barrier for schedule C small business deduction, etc.

Only corporations get any of these tax incentives today.
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Actually, our tiny aerospace-related LLC (and an LLC is not a corporation) gets many of those benefits, and an LLC can be formed in under one hour in most states, including getting a tax ID. We can write off a pretty darned big chunk of capital expenditures at once, if we need to, rather than depreciating them.
Still, I couldn't justify a company plane, given that our office and our primary customer are twenty minutes apart ...
 
cowman said:
I'd have to go dig up the exact numbers but at one point I looked up what a new 172 would have cost in the 50s and then put it into an inflation calculator to see what it would cost today. The result was a new 172 cost around $75,000 in today's money back in the late 50's. What are they now, around $300,000? We're paying the $75 for 40 year old used airplanes. What happened? If a new plane could be had for under $100,000 imagine how cheap the used market would be. Flying would be downright affordable!
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There are a few planes available new for that price. Are they practical? I don't consider anything with performance less than, say, a C182, to be really practical (for business and family travel.) That's one of the reasons I sold my Skyhawk; it just wasn't enough, and the jump to the next level was spendy, even for old and used.
If I was still into expensive hamburgers, and wanted a new plane, I could perhaps find several others of the same mindset, and share a new LSA, and just stomach the payments. But I don't like sharing planes, so I'll do without until I retire and hopefully sell my shares of the company, in the meantime renting as needed (and I hate rentals, too. I've been let down, once literally, by their condition.)
Now if a new four-seat 150+ kt cruise plane, having an 800 lb. payload with full fuel and baggage, and 800 mile+ range, and a modern panel and engine, could be had for $200K, I'm in.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
Actually, our tiny aerospace-related LLC (and an LLC is not a corporation) gets many of those benefits, and an LLC can be formed in under one hour in most states, including getting a tax ID. We can write off a pretty darned big chunk of capital expenditures at once, if we need to, rather than depreciating them.
Still, I couldn't justify a company plane, given that our office and our primary customer are twenty minutes apart ...
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You're right about the LLC, but the LLC needs an income source. My prior post was referencing "Johnny W-2 pay check" guy.
 
Its too pricey to be of use so you have to have an extra 5-10 grand a year to play around with all so you can rent a 1970s 172 with an inop vor, no wheelpants and a 1970s original p/i . If I didn't want to fly professionally I wouldn't do it unless I was into the 6 figures on salary and could afford a fun aircraft.

Flying competes with so much and doesn't win unless your flying for the shear love of flying. Its slower and pricier than airlines or cars except for a small window of distance. For some the calculus becomes "do I bugsmash 3-4 hrs a month at 95kts or do I own a boat the whole family can enjoy all weekend(or insert your hobby of choice)
 
1994 Naples Florida. A152 with CFI was $55/for PPL training. Landing fees were something you heard about at big airports, not small GA airports. Ramp fees for FBOs were non existent for the most part. 100 LL was $1.20/ gal.

Now most of those numbers have shot way up But also the student wants fancy stuff, G1000, Bose headsets, cool twinkling lights in the cockpit. There are some decent rentals out there for a lot less but many students don’t want a basic plane anymore.
 
I also think that the kids of today have so many other options of things to do that they don't want to waste time learning how to fly. When I was a kid our TV got 3 stations. Like what's on or go do something else. Now they have a couple hundred to choose from and I haven't even mentioned youtube. Then there's the video games. It's more fun (exciting) to them to play Microsoft FS and buzz the Vegas strip or the Eiffel Tower than to learn turns around a point. Times are a changin!!!

Now comes the money part. Back a few years we didn't have $200/ month cell bills and $150/month cable bills or $50/month Ritalin. Plus the playstation, xbox, Air Jordans and private school. If I didn't have all of those bills now, I could afford a lot nicer airplane and more hours in the air.

On the airplane side all I can say is avionics. $30,000 for an IFR panel that I don't use more than once a month is ridiculous. Even used dual VOR's with a indicators and an audio panel that I installed myself was over $8000. Most people just don't have that kind of money.

Other than that, GA is alive and well. :)

Except for leaded fuel. :(
 
Brandon Hicks said:
I've noticed a few threads on POA that seem to allude to the overall state of GA being in decline and I wondered A) if I'm reading into this correctly and if so, B) Why you all think that is?

I'm new to this forum, new to general aviation, new to this "hobby" (or whatever it is) so my perspective is very limited and still very much that of an "outsider", despite the warm welcome you all have shown. I have certainly had some of my preconceptions challenged as I have gotten more serious and educated and I have some of my own naive theories on why that may be but I'm more interested in hearing the opinions of those of you that have been around aviation for a while than I am of boring you all with my own opinions, lol. I'm also interested to hear what attracted people to GA in the first place.

Thanks all.
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When you say GA I think you are referring to the ‘hobby’ part of GA. GA refers to all aviation outside the scheduled airlines (and ?). Using aircraft for sport, recreation, personal transportation and such is what I think you are asking about.

Aviation has been a lifetime hobby for me but I’m of the generation that would put a man on the moon in the 60s. Aviation embodied the technology behind that effort, it was still hot, maturing rapidly, costs were down and capabilities up.

My Dad introduced me to modeling, particularly RC modeling, just as it was maturing. My brother and I flew all sorts of models and he stayed with it until this day. I chased ‘full scale’ flying and managed to get half way to a PPL before college.

After college I finished up the PPL but was smitten by the glider bug, just as I had been attracted to power-less models earlier. I flew and raced sailplanes for almost 20 years before picking up airplanes again.

A work move from the NYC area to the more aviation friendly ‘fly over’ country in NC let me buy into a very affordable fly-in community. I dropped the glider racing and became owner of a Maule. It’s hard to describe how enabling living with your plane can be.

The Maule was a very affordable plane that required a tail wheel endorsement and enabled an instrument rating. Personal aviation switched from being a sport my wife and I teamed up to compete in to a weekend traveling machine. The Maule was far from ideal for any of the missions we pushed it through but living with it made personal transportation practical. I’ve gone years at a time without driving over 100 miles per day and yet we were rarely home on weekends.

Now we knew what we wanted to do with a plane and found the best way to get a good traveling machine was to build it from a kit. Kit technology had matured to the point where assembling one was no more difficult than building models and Vans designs had the performance and capability we wanted. When the RV-10 came out we saw it as the perfect air chariot for two plus all the stuff we like to take... which sometimes translates into 2 + 2.

With a right-sized hangar in the back yard we were able to continue to fly the Maule somewhere most weekends while finding enough time to build the ‘10 over 5 years.

Personal flying with your own plane parked in the backyard is as good as it gets for this aviation loving hobbyist. I retired the month following completion of the ‘10 and sold the Maule a month later.

Seven years later I’m writing this sitting in a hotel room with a view of the NYC office building where I first met my mate over 35 years ago, having flown my plane into one of the NYC area GA airports to attend a funeral. Flying a plane around the NYC area seems just as unaffordable now as it seemed back then, which is part of the reason I chased gliders back then and lived across the river.

But going all the way back when I was a teenage RC modeler dreaming of flying the real thing someday, I can recall reading issues of Flying trying to price things out. A plane seemed to cost somewhat more than a year’s salary but the rising cost of fuel seemed like it might end the dream before it could get started.

Costs have risen but not so much that the dream be unfulfilled. The planes and the panel technology have advanced further than even this techie could imagine. All those high taxes and big government have provided a robust infrastructure that is free for me to use just as the interstate system is there for everyone else.

It’s difficult imagining what a personal flying dream looks like to someone setting out today. I know it is not hot or as attractive as it was to so many years ago. But personal flying has never been better in terms of safety, capability, and just plain fun.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 
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Well, here are a bunch of uninformed opinions, based almost exclusively on my own personal experience:

I started flying as a 33 year old about to start a family and about 10 years into my professional career. I've been an aviation enthusiast for life (huge understatement), but it's never seemed like a realistic passion to pursue, primarily due to the exorbitant cost. My wife has been saddled with a huge amount of student loans (her choice to take them on, I'm not whining... no "woe is me" stories here), we have a mortgage, etc, so investing tens of thousands of dollars into a hobby wasn't really a possibility. Now that we've worked through these loans and have a bit more money, I was able to go after my dream.

Once I finally had the blessing of a great job and the finances to make it happen, it proved to be a huge pain in the rear just to find a good flight school (and I'm in between Akron and Cleveland OH, not exactly the middle of nowhere). Once I found one, getting a CFI who could work around my professional schedule, didn't cancel all the time, etc proved to be a real challenge. Just completing the required training was quite the exercise in perseverance.

Now that we are looking at ownership, holy cow, look out! Expensive, expensive, expensive. The average Joe certainly can't afford a new plane, not even a 172, 182, or Cirrus. You're basically looking at buying a 40 year old "antique" (still expensive).

I haven't even mentioned the hassle of getting a medical... I'm on the far side of very fit (I run a 1:30:00 half marathon), eat healthy, 5'7", 135 lbs, and I worry about the 3rd class medical thing. If they find one thing that could be a problem, you have just encountered some real hoops to jump through. BasicMed starts to look a lot less risky.

Anyway, to sum up, flying GA is something you really, really have to want. It's very expensive, the schools are difficult to work with for a working professional, and half the country is medicated and can't get a third class medical.

My opinion is that unfortunately the future of GA isn't so rosy, but who knows? I've certainly been wrong before.
 
Unfortunately it has become a hobby for the wealthy. It just is not very accessible. It is the first thing to be cut when people are looking for money. Also, the more technologically advanced GA stuff is beyond expensive as well. Young people want technology, and unfortunately 1960s Cessnas with Steam gauges aren't cutting it. An example of this is a 172N at the local flight school rents for 140 bucks an hour. The 172SP with a G1000 rents for $400 an hour. A twin? $450 an hour. This is par for the course here. Completely un-accessible, and currently the reason I have not been flying for quite awhile. Not to mention the increased safety buffer of having technology to aid in situational awareness...
 
Brandon Hicks said:
I've noticed a few threads on POA that seem to allude to the overall state of GA being in decline and I wondered A) if I'm reading into this correctly and if so, B) Why you all think that is?
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Welcome to POA!
It really all comes down to cost and opportunity. Luckily GA around here thrives pretty well... CRQ, MYF, SEE, RNM, even SDM stay very active and often have split frequencies for TWR for congestion. Grant you, this is also SoCal, which is some of the busiest airspace in the world. At our local club Plus One has a ton of planes, and most of them fly often, and the weekends are booked solid. So in this area it thrives.. however... outside of here Falconkidding is right.. new planes are too expensive and don't offer you anything different than they did in 1960 (except for one maker *cough* I won't say who *cough*). The rental fleet is an embarrassment. Plus, most clubs have onerous terms (3 hr daily minimum??). Paying north of $120/hr to go 95 knots in a beat to death 1970s relic that you can't actually really take overnight, or use to get places, means all you are doing is burning a couple hundred dollars when you go flying and get nothing more out of it than just the thrill of "I was in the air!" .. and unfortunately that loses its fun after a while. Too many people get their PPL then say "what's next?" and fly less and less each month until they stop altogether

falconkidding said:
Its too pricey to be of use so you have to have an extra 5-10 grand a year to play around with all so you can rent a 1970s 172 with an inop vor, no wheelpants and a 1970s original p/i . If I didn't want to fly professionally I wouldn't do it unless I was into the 6 figures on salary and could afford a fun aircraft.

Flying competes with so much and doesn't win unless your flying for the shear love of flying. Its slower and pricier than airlines or cars except for a small window of distance. For some the calculus becomes "do I bugsmash 3-4 hrs a month at 95kts or do I own a boat the whole family can enjoy all weekend(or insert your hobby of choice)
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Your 444th post was on the money!!

**To revitalize GA:
--make the product cool and desirable again. One manufacturer did this and leads the pack.. and they're able to get brand new people in selling $1M planes. If someone could make something fresh for a quarter of that then we'd be well on the road to making GA fun and successful again. No LSA won't do it.. let's face it, most LSAs have zero utility and are ugly as all sin

--Change the perception that aviation is reserved for rich people. There are plenty of solid planes you can buy for well below $100K.. *WELL BELOW (like under $50K)*. Will there be a cost of ownership, sure.. $10K-$15K-ish extra per year for a Cherokee / 172, etc., but how much do people spend buying $50K cars, housing, cable, internet, phones, etc.. if you make $100K per year (good money, but no where near rich) you can afford an airplane if you budget for it right

--Fix the absolutely bonkers costs.. I get that regulations, etc., have driven costs up and that because Cessna/Piper refused to make any improvements to their assembly line despite decades of production and over 40,000 single engine deliveries (each) they can't sell a plane for under half a mil now.. but no doubt the floor is so high now on costs that plenty of brands just milk the perceived notion of rich buyers and extort us. All the costs around planes are insane.. even for non flying parts:

*take this tug.. which is just the back end of a cheap Black and Decker drill, some box tubing, and small drum.. $1,500 for that?!?! I can go to Homeless Despot and buy a solid weed wacker for $200. For $75 in parts I could build one of these tugs in a few hours in my garage with parts bought online. So the $1,500 is just extortion because "pilots are rich" .. you can't blame "onerous FAA regulations" on that

*or take this cooler, err, "portable AC", which is nothing more than a $10 PC fan strapped to a $20 cooler full of ice, but sells for $300?!?!?

*even foggles.. $25 for this? You can get sunglasses at the gas station for $5..

*why you would spend $60 on this timer when you can get one at WalMart for $5 is beyond me

*how about this $150 trapper keeper? The quality of which you can tell by the photos is poor

*why spend $30 on a backpack when you can spend 3X that and have one with wings that say "FLIGHT GEAR" on it

Anyway... you get the idea. There is this notion that pilots are rich and so everything carries an "aviation" premium on it. We need to stop that notion. I'm beginning to think I should have gone into the aviation tchotchke business... I could sell a piece of PVC plastic with a strap and some FARs printed on it, and call it "the deluxe aviation professional flight quick reference FAR board, only $79.95" - have them made in China for $0.75 a piece...



Sorry for the rant guys. These things don't need to be as expensive as they are but hide behind the veil of "it's for aviation!"
 
Without using numbers just my observations over the past 48 years there have been some slump times far worse than now, early 80's would be a good example. I was lined up waiting for 15 minutes at a local class D a couple of weeks ago and OSH 2018 was not exactly a dud. I wouldn't call the coroner just yet.
 
When I was young in the 1960’s my dad used to say, “Flying airplanes is for the rich folk.” Guess not much has changed.
 
Excellent comments thus far, so I'll just repeat what I said in an earlier "is GA dying" thread.

Yes, cost is a big factor. But even though I'm 62, I hang and work with folks a lot younger than me, and there are other good reasons why so many of them aren't interested.

First, they can fly commercial for a lot less. That was not true in the 70's. It's definitely true now. Just this past week, I got offers from Delta to fly to a resort for $200-ish, round trip.

Second, commercial is more comfortable and a lot quieter. To a kid who's used to modern cars, flying inside of a typical GA cabin is unacceptably loud, and they ain't gonna wear headphones just to be able to carry on a conversation.

Third, the technology. I'm probably gonna hurt some feelings with this (and I apologize), but to folks who've been raised on fuel injection and the equivalent of "FADEC" in automobiles since the 1980s, the idea of having to switch this, pull that, adjust this, trim that, prime this, turn the prop until it "burps" (my personal favorite, thank you, Rotax!), set the flaps, watch the temps, watch the manifold pressure, etc., etc ... WAY too much bother. As one 20-something said, "SCREW all that. For $30,000, I can get a very nice sports car and toss it around on some mountain roads."

I'm not even talking about the Dynon or Garmin vs. a six pack. It's the general idea. They see all those knobs and switches and crank handles and blinkies and think, "1950's, dude!"

So, we're back to the lack of innovation. Got to be careful not to get into a circular argument here. :)

Just my 2c worth. Once again. I still plan to get licensed and to fly, but when I try to talk others into joining me, they just flat ain't interested.
 
NordicDave said:
30 years ago individuals could get many of the same tax savings as corporations. eg. expense deduction for loan interest, expense if commuting more then 50mi, lower barrier for schedule C small business deduction, etc.

Only corporations get any of these tax incentives today.
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When plane purchased and used for business purposes, an individual gets the same tax treatment as corps.
 
OK, a little more, and this is going to sound like pure heresy to a true old timer, to someone who has been flying since Orville and Wilbur were kids.

We have the technology right now to mass produce safe, quiet light aircraft. We definitely have the technology to automate a lot of that pushing and pullin' and flap-settin' and forgetting to raise or lower the gear. It hasn't been done because there's no demand. But until it's done, there won't be demand, not from kids who grew up on technology. They'd be happy to pilot their own plane, but it needs to be *their* idea of fun.
 
You are trying to make it practical as if the whole point was just to get from point A to point B. That’s not why we oldtimers do it. It’s the pushing and pulling and setting, wrestling with adverse yaw and p-factor and making it all look easy and graceful that gives us all that satisfaction. What’s the use if any schmoe can do,it? May as well take up oil painting.
 
It's not dying as far as I can tell just yet, just morphing along with most everything else in society. Trends come and go.
 
Brad Smith said:
When I was young in the 1960’s my dad used to say, “Flying airplanes is for the rich folk.” Guess not much has changed.
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It hasn't. Flying was expensive then and it still is now.

In recent times, the number of private and commercial pilots has been on a slow decline, while the number of Airline Transport and and Sport pilots has been increasing. If you add up those pilots who are likely flying light GA planes, there has been a steady decline : https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/

Historically, pilots were rare until after the second world war, at which time the pilot population grew extremely rapidly, only to plunge until the middle 50's, at which time it started to grow steadily, until peaking in 1980. The private pilot population has been declining since then: https://www.aopa.org/about/general-aviation-statistics/faa-certificated-pilots

Last year, the number of private pilots remained almost steady, for the first time in a number of years. I suspect that has more to do with more prospective professional pilots starting on their ratings than increased interest in GA, but I have no data to support that conjecture.

If you look at the number of student pilots, it appears that there's been a big increase. The FAA has changed how long student certificates are in effect a couple of times in the last few years, which is why the numbers have grown. As someone else mentioned, the number of new private certificates earned has been steady at 17,000 - 18,000 for the last few years. If you look at the FAA airmen data, there are typically around 3 student certs earned for every new private, so I'd guess there are around 50,000 - 60,000 active student pilots at any given time.

Going back to the airmen's data, there's a chart breaking the pilot population down by age. If you look at the student column, you'll see that it skews very heavily to young pilots. There are as many student pilots in the 20 - 24 age group as there are that are 40 and above. That's not true of private ticket holders, there are a disproportionately large number of private pilots in the 55-70 age. Over the next 15 years these pilots will age out, and it's very likely that those age groups will shrink. After that, it may be that the number of private pilots stabilizes.
 
Ben2k9 said:
When plane purchased and used for business purposes, an individual gets the same tax treatment as corps.
Click to expand...

I was referring to the legacy tax code in the 70's & 80's that allowed an individual with a W-2 (Not a business) to deduct expenses for long distance commutes and deduct interest on the loan for aviation to get to work.
 
@Stephen Poole . Op here. You just nailed my “outsider” feelings on this perfectly.

I’m in my early 40s and I distinctly remember what prompted a deeper dive into aviation. I was flipppng through a non Aviation magazine like Wired or something similar and came across an article about the Icon A5. This was a little while ago and it was presented more as a real thing than a prototype but it completely reversed every preconception I had about GA. Holy **** this thing is cool! I thought. For less than a Ferrari and you can actually FLY! Land on remote mountain lake for fishing, cruise up to Martha’s Vinyard for dinner, etc. Definitely not the rickety rust bucket image that a piston prop plane made me think about. It was the future!

As I’ve leaned a little more, I realize how niave I was and just how impractical that particular toy may be but it doesn’t change the fact that it was this type of innovation that inspired me (and my wife) to start our PPL training and mentally “trying on” the lifestyle, freedom, and I dare say romance that GA can facilitate.
 
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The cost has gotten out of hand. I got my license in 1989 when I was making $9.00 an hour as a drywaller. A C-150 was $28/hour wet to rent. The "good" 172 had DME which commanded $42/hour. On rare occasions I would rent that just to experience the wonders of DME.

Despite my low pay I was able to purchase a new truck and pay rent while flying at least twice a week. There is no way someone in the lower middle class could afford to fly without making serious compromises in lifestyle.
 
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