GA pilot decline

Granted flying planes are more expensive now, but hell an Iphone is a grand, kids just aren't motivated to learn to fly to many other "easier" activities to participate in.
There are also many cheaper ways for young people to get their adrenaline rush that have nothing to do with electronics.

My take is that aviation is much more regulated and procedural than what most people do for "fun".
 
My take is that aviation is much more regulated and procedural than what most people do for "fun".

True, unfortunately When something comes easy, you usually let it go the same way. Most things in life that are easy aren't that rewarding when accomplished.
 
Interesting age distribution.

Looking at the age distribution chart, I don't see where it shows that the pilot population is declining. There are more pilots between 20-30 years old than between 50-60 years old
 
Looking at the age distribution chart, I don't see where it shows that the pilot population is declining. There are more pilots between 20-30 years old than between 50-60 years old
I expected a bell curve, not a dip in the middle of the curve.
 
I've been on automotive message boards since before Mosaic. As an amateur racer, I've always marveled that people will spend ~$100K modifying their street car for speed, handling and bling, (unsafe/unusable on the street) when for a fraction of that money, they could buy a formula Ford and go racing with SCCA. While a new Cirrus might be $1M, you could spend less than the cost of a Boxster on a very nice airworthy plane with money to spare for contemporary avionics. The cost of flying has certainly outpaced average wage increase, but in absolute terms I'll bet the cohort of potential aviators with adequate budget and free time is larger than it was in 1970. I think more than anything there is a lack of vision for flying. As flawed as the Icon project may be, seems like the industry needs more out-of-the-box approaches to re-ignite the romance of GA.
 
True, unfortunately When something comes easy, you usually let it go the same way. Most things in life that are easy aren't that rewarding when accomplished.
OK, but I'm not sure that my statement about aviation being highly regulated and procedural has anything to do with the ease or difficulty of the activity. There are plenty of challenging activities that are not as highly regulated. My point is that some may not like all the regulatory constraints that are a part of aviation.
 
Talking to my students, I don't see any lack of interest in things that require discipline, diligence, and even adherence to rules and regulations (though in practice they're not quite so good about adhering as one might like to see). Then again, most of them are working towards commissions in the armed forces. And among the handful with whom I've discussed my own involvement with aviation, every one of them considers it a very cool thing (though being a woman pilot probably counts for part of that too). But... not one of those students is actually a private pilot himself. I think the big barrier these days is money - especially the enormous debt students incur to attend college. Kind of destroys the wherewithal and the incentive to take up expensive hobbies, however cool they seem. Hopefully that might change someday, when they're financially more secure... assuming GA still exists in this country for anyone but the truly filthy rich.
 
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We need as many private/membership only flying clubs as we have flight training schools. Flying is like a 2 edge sword. You have to fly often to stay current and with the way the cost have been, there are lots of GA pilots with dormant licenses
 
Interesting age distribution.
I thought so too. Agree. Not sure I would call that "standard"!

There are also many cheaper ways for young people to get their adrenaline rush that have nothing to do with electronics.

My take is that aviation is much more regulated and procedural than what most people do for "fun".
Yeah.. and they're not all "cheap" thrills in the sense that they come easy. Might be my location, but most of my friends are big into rock climbing and "canyoneering" (whatever that is). It's remarkably inexpensive, and from the pics I've seen, even being just 50 feet up a rock wall somewhere in Joshua Tree looks quite exhilarating. My brother and his boys are big into free diving... not free, but compared to the cost of aviation a bargain

But you have a point, rock climbing and free diving have no real regulation or "hoops" to jump through.

We need as many private/membership only flying clubs as we have flight training schools. Flying is like a 2 edge sword. You have to fly often to stay current and with the way the cost have been, there are lots of GA pilots with dormant licenses
The flight schools make it really tough to stay proficient.. typically having crazy scheduling and onerous rules. Going up for the 2 hr local flight loses its fun after a while. You need to be able to allow people to take the plane for a whole day, or a weekend, and not punish them for that. And let them get into schedule master on their own, or some other scheduler. Many clubs you can't actually book a plane without calling and talking to someone

To that point, Plus One has done a great job. For a modest monthly fee you have access to a big fleet of planes that rent at very reasonable rates and have very forgiving rental and overnight policies
 
Same reason less people hunt, camp, shoot, build forts in the woods as kids, etc.

Less freedoms and less critical thinking being encouraged for kids.

You are exactly correct. My other passion is bow hunting. Hunters overall are declining rapidly. Kids don't go out in the woods anymore. They darn sure don't know how to handle a firearm or bow. Unless it was a video hunting game.
 
Granted flying planes are more expensive now, but hell an Iphone is a grand, kids just aren't motivated to learn to fly to many other "easier" activities to participate in.
Not going to start the whole ‘young people’ debate again, but that’s quite the generalization to say that kids aren’t motivated to learn to fly. Believe it or not, I really don’t think that kids today are much different from kids of past generations. Granted, social media and the age of electronics weren’t involved back then, but there were just as many kids who were lazy and unmotivated to do anything with their lives years ago, as there is today.

Heck, I was a ‘kid’ when I learned to fly and I knew what I wanted since I came out of the birth canal. It’s one of those things that if you WANT something you’re going to find a way to make it happen.

There are also many cheaper ways for young people to get their adrenaline rush that have nothing to do with electronics.

My take is that aviation is much more regulated and procedural than what most people do for "fun".
I’d say you’re spot on.
 
Even at a modest $120/hr to fly a rental beater.. that's still a full day of skiing, a nice dinner, etc. Flying kicks ass, but I do believe it's the costs primarily

...and the other stuff we've talked about in our other "make GA great again" threads

Maybe.

Maybe not.

Flying is expensive, yes, but not outrageously so by comparison.

For 120 bucks, I can take my wife or son flying for an hour. It costs me more than twice that to take two of us out on a dive boat for two 30 minute dives.

And when I was racing, I easily blew a grand or more for a race weekend that gave me about an hour of track time. If I crashed or blew a motor or something, it was much more.

The best recreational sport bang-for-buck I’ve found is motorcycling. A fast sport bike on a mountain road is a hoot, and cheap.
 
Kids 60 years ago had heroes who were pilots. They inspired. Who are the current generation's heroes? I don't know the answer. I am just asking the question.
 
Granted, social media and the age of electronics weren’t involved back then, but there were just as many kids who were lazy and unmotivated to do anything with their lives years ago, as there is today.
.

I didn't have electronics, social media, online games etc. We had to occupy our time and do fun things that were available to us at that time.
We had very few couch potatoes, sitting on your azz staring at nothing (4 TV channels, no cartoons) wasn't much fun all by yourself.
That's one of my points, there wasn't as many things to do and flying was really cool to kids at that time, more so than today I believe.
 
I didn't have electronics, social media, online games etc. We had to occupy our time and do fun things that were available to us at that time.
That's one of my points, there wasn't as many things to do and flying was really cool to kids at that time, more so than today I believe.
I understand, the point I was making though was that if the kid really wants to fly, than they’ll find a way. I grew up will all of the electronics and various gadgets too, but I didn’t let them stop me from learning to fly, because it was something I really wanted!

It really depends on the person and what they allow to motivate them.
 
From the high of 300,000 pilots in 1980 a steady 10,000 pilot decline in GA a year, and the FAA takes credit for the record low fatal Accident rate?
Is the rate is based on the number of pilots or number of estimated miles or hours?
 
From the high of 300,000 pilots in 1980 a steady 10,000 pilot decline in GA a year, and the FAA takes credit for the record low fatal Accident rate?

Accident rate, as in fatalities per 100,000 hours, not total fatalities

Not really. While most people can't afford new airplanes, they're still being bought and built en masse. Cirri are bought by consumers new, Cessna are bought by large flight schools and government agencies and Pipers are bought en masse by flight schools. Plenty of new airframes being introduced that in 10-20 years will be affordable to us peasants.
As far as pilot #'s well... time will tell.

GAMA Annual Report is here.

Look at the section titled "U.S.-Manufactured General Aviation Airplane Shipments by Type" in section 1.5. Single engine airplane manufacture fell off the shelf in 1981, and has never recovered. In 1977 and 1978 more than 14,000 singles were produced each year in the U. S. Last year it was 745. Cirrus built 345 airplanes, Piper built 90 singles , 18 twins, and 47 turbines. Cessna built 129 Skyhawks, 46 Skylanes, 40 Stationaires, and 26 TTXs. Those aren't healthy numbers.

Same reason less people hunt, camp, shoot, build forts in the woods as kids, etc.

Less freedoms and less critical thinking being encouraged for kids.

I'm not sure what critical thinking has to do with those activities, it has more to do with opportunity and desire. When I was a kid and we lived out in the country, we used to shoot frequently, once we moved back to the city we stopped, because there was nowhere to shoot.

There is no reason to do most of the things I as a kid did 40 years ago. We did not have video games, 300 channels on TV, an iphone that they can't set down and many other things that keep kids from enjoying the things I did.
I built model airplanes, rode my bike, etc. and would give my left nut to go to the airport and get a ride. Hell even just watch planes take off and land.
Granted flying planes are more expensive now, but hell an Iphone is a grand, kids just aren't motivated to learn to fly to many other "easier" activities to participate in.

Most of the things you and I did as kids, today's children don't think of doing because it's not of their generation, just like I didn't do the same things my father did.

Looking at the age distribution chart, I don't see where it shows that the pilot population is declining. There are more pilots between 20-30 years old than between 50-60 years
old

Look at just the numbers for private and sport pilots. People under 30 make up most of the student starts. The number I have been watching for the last five years or so is the number of new original private certificates issued, and it's been hanging around 17.000 for most of the decade. (It's in Table 17 of the US Civil Airmen Statistics.) Now go back to that number of student pilots, which is approaching 150,000. What are they all doing? My only conclusion is that most have stopped training but their medicals have not expired yet. I'd guess maybe 40,000 of those nearly 150,000 are actively training. It looks like a lot of people under 30 are flying, but once you remove the inactive students, the number is much less impressive. There is an uptick in activity in the 20-24 age group, which I suspect is being driven by pilots undergoing career training, but there's no data for that.

I've been on automotive message boards since before Mosaic. As an amateur racer, I've always marveled that people will spend ~$100K modifying their street car for speed, handling and bling, (unsafe/unusable on the street) when for a fraction of that money, they could buy a formula Ford and go racing with SCCA. While a new Cirrus might be $1M, you could spend less than the cost of a Boxster on a very nice airworthy plane with money to spare for contemporary avionics. The cost of flying has certainly outpaced average wage increase, but in absolute terms I'll bet the cohort of potential aviators with adequate budget and free time is larger than it was in 1970. I think more than anything there is a lack of vision for flying. As flawed as the Icon project may be, seems like the industry needs more out-of-the-box approaches to re-ignite the romance of GA.

I think there are a lot of guys who like the idea of going fast, but aren't too jazzed by the effort and discipline that it takes to go racing. Plus, anyone who has their ego invested in how fast they think they are, isn't going to like the wake up call they'll get when they first show up at the track and find out that they are many seconds off the pace.

I got my private in 1978, and was around for the boom times. Back then, flying was expensive and hangars were hard to come by. Now, flying is expensive, the airplanes are the same ones I flew in back then, and hangars are very hard to come by in many areas. The things that have really outpaced inflation are housing, education, and healthcare. Add to that how much more education someone starting out today has to have just to get an entry level career type job, and young people don't have a lot of money to spend. To make things worse, employers have been able to force down wages for entry level positions significantly since the Great Recession, and the wage levels are just now barely starting to inch up. We just last year got real median household income up to the level it was in 1999, which was the previous peak.

We need as many private/membership only flying clubs as we have flight training schools. Flying is like a 2 edge sword. You have to fly often to stay current and with the way the cost have been, there are lots of GA pilots with dormant licenses

That's of the drawbacks of flying. It takes a big commitment to get started, and a big commitment to continue. It's not like going boating or something that it's very easy to maintain proficiency, you have to keep at it or it stops being fun and starts being scary. Going back to Table 17, there were more that 38,000 student certificates issued but few than 18,000 privates. What happened to the other 20,000? Undoubtedly some ran out of money, but lots others decided it wasn't for them.

There are a couple of trends that make the future of GA a little iffy. There is a tendency for the better paying jobs, those that pay well enough to support a flying habit, to be concentrated in the cities, where airport space is at a premium and is expensive. Also, the training fleet is ancient. When I started in 1977, the airplanes I flew were only a couple of year old. Now, they're much older than many of the pilots that fly them. If I'd gone out to the airport and was told I was going to learn in a Luscombe with no radios, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have gone back. Technologically, that's what we're offering our new pilots, really old technology in really old airframes. I've said this before, but it bears repeating, if we have to keep flying the same airframes from the production boom of the late 60's and late 70's, then GA is going to fade out. At some point we must have some new airplanes.

The other problem is what are people going to use the airplane to do? As we've seen, pilots who only fly locally tend not to fly many hours, and I suspect tend to drop out as well. If you're wanting to use the airplane to go somewhere, now you need to be in some sort of ownership situation, maybe a club or a partnership. If you're going to stay overnight, you have to add that expense to your budget. Are you going by yourself, or taking a spouse, or an entire family? Now you need more airplane and a bigger travel budget, so the pool of prospective pilots who can afford that shrinks further.
 
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I find it interesting that the used aircraft market has been skyrocketing. If the supply of pilots is decreasing then where is the demand for these planes coming from?

It's very type specific. For a lot of airplanes it's still a buyers market. Check out the pathetic prices for older retractible singles, as one example.
 
Flight school I instruct at is pretty darn busy. 7-8 part time CFIs, 5 "old" airplanes. Newest are 1980 C172 & C152.

How many students are doing ab initio training towards a PPL with the intent of purely recreational/personal flying?

We see very few now, while demand from students wanting to fly as a profession is at record levels at the three FTUs at my home airport.
 
Our EAA Chapter has held three Rusty Pilot programs and have the fourth scheduled for September. We've had good attendance, not sure how many have reentered general aviation as a result.

I attended one of those there in January 2016. Then went to another at KCCO in Dec '16. Hadn't flown in 11 years. July '17 I finally did a flight review and got to flying again. I've flown over 30 hours now since the middle of March. About to take my commercial check ride. So yes, I did 'reenter' after attending those.
 
The uber-safety wonks have crept in like a cancer. Or maybe like jock itch. In the pilot population, I mean. Maybe half the pilots I know can quote trivial regs verbatim, but would crap their pants at getting far enough into a tough situation to actually broaden their experince. If you haven't scared yourself semi-regularly, U B a wonk. And U B part of the culture of sucking the joy out of flying.

The FAA has a part in the decline, as well - a bloated, grotesque, over reaching, and, essentially, strangling bureacracy. Heck, the internal groups can't even align themselves - it's not even unusual for one group to have no idea what another is doing in the same arena.
 
How many students are doing ab initio training towards a PPL with the intent of purely recreational/personal flying?

We see very few now, while demand from students wanting to fly as a profession is at record levels at the three FTUs at my home airport.

I'd say the majority are learning for purely personal flying. I'm sure there's some that will eventually pursue it for a professional career
 
The school in the closest "city" here has a 150, (5) 172s, 182, Arrow, Seneca, 172 seaplane and a Citabria. It is almost impossible to find time on the schedule in a 172. The 182 is very popular as well. The others fly at least once or twice a day. This is a city in a county with a with a population of about 750K people. There is at least one other flight school on the field with a couple of diamonds that I know does OK as well.

Unfortunately the outlying smaller airports are all but dead compared to what they used to be 20 years ago. It is almost impossible to find a rental outside of the bigger airports.
 
We started a club in March and adding our 4th aircraft this month and probably 5th in a couple of months...self serve and you dispatch yourself...overnights have not been an issue...we have several student pilots, all would like to make it a profession if they are under 30...and old guys are there for fun.
 
My take on this is that Uncle Sugar trained tens of thousands of pilots during WWII. A good sized cohort of those got the bug and kept flying, despite the unpleasant experiences of the war. Some flew airlines, some did other things and flew privately. There were lots of airlines flying little airliners, so there were lots of pilot jobs. There were lots and lots of military pilots to man the tip of the spear during the Cold War, and Uncle Sugar kept training them.

Some of the kids of those pilots got the bug and started flying. There were still airline jobs, though perhaps not as many, not as many airlines flying bigger jets. There were still lots of military jobs to fly in our internecine cold war conflicts.

Fast forward another generation, there aren't as many airline jobs, since there are fewer airlines flying bigger jets stuffed full. There are lots of regional airline jobs, but they pay sucks starting out and doesn't get too grand. The military is busy flying toys, so they haven't as many flying spots as they once did. And only some of the kids of the previous generation got the bug. Moreover, lots of them had to drop out as aviation got more expensive.

Each generation some drop out, and Uncle Sugar isn't making as many as he used to. The population will continue to dwindle. Moreover, even if we get into shooting war with someone, we'll fight it with flying robots and toys, not pilots.
 
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Regulation, more specifically, over-regulation, is the root of the decline of General Aviation. Overhaul the regs, and you revive GA, plain and simple. Amazes me how people can't figure this out.
One simple example: Sport Pilot.
During the 80's and 90's Ultralights became extremely popular. Everybody was flocking to the ranks. I was one of them. It was a time of enthusiastic innovation in materials and designs, and a really good time for light aviation. I had earned my Private certiicate in the late 80's, but due to unforseen family and financial issues I couldn't afford to fly, until I found Ultralights. I bought a kit, built my plane, and flew the crap out of it. Yea sure, I added some extra fuel, installed some brakes, and a few other goodies that made it better and safer, but now it was illegal. It was what they called a "Fat" Ultralight.

Long story short, our government decided they needed to "reign in" the renegades, and they forced the Sport regulations on the UL community. Rather than work with the community, they simply said this is how and why this will be, and it was over. Another blooming segment of private aviation snuffed. The end.

They always know better than us. Anybody old enough to remember the hype they spread about how great Recreational Pilot was going to be? Anybody wonder why pretty much any new single costs a half million dollars, or more? Why do we continue to quote statistics and make up so many excuses for why there's such a shortage of new pilots these days? Wake up sheeple.
 
Regulation, more specifically, over-regulation, is the root of the decline of General Aviation. Overhaul the regs, and you revive GA, plain and simple. Amazes me how people can't figure this out.

No. They have it figured out. But politicians do not want their constituency to have freedom. GA is freedom, and they hate it. They will kill it any chance they get. They know what will boost it, and they do everything to keep it from being boosted.
 
I wonder how much, if any, lack of interest in GA has to do with the hassle of flying commercial nowadays?

Back in the 50s and 60s, flying was a great adventure, pilots were looked up to, and people even dressed up to fly.

Contrast that to today's world where flying commercial is a hassle. Fees for everything, long security lines, take your shoes off, empty half your bags, cattle-car cramped seating, etc, etc, etc. And when was the last time the general public admired an airline pilot except when one avoids a tragedy in the news?

I wonder how many people out there might express an interest in learning to fly GA aircraft, if it weren't for a largely negative experience in flying commercial? Maybe if there was something about flying commercial that was inspirational to people, more people might take an interest in learning to fly?
 
My limited insight says that that there are many intertwining problems that have led to the overall decline of GA, but I am going to address only one of them as I see it: a total lack of effective marketing, at the national level and the local levels. The blame falls on the aircraft manufacturers, the trade groups, the flight schools. and whoever else has a vested interest in the success of GA. As I see it, almost all of the marketing is of the "preaching to the choir" type.

Regarding aviation, I would simplistically identify the market as being made up of three groups.
1) The "enthusiasts", or those that are taken by the thought of flying an airplane. Those in this group are the self-starters. It doesn't much (or any) prompting for them to get into the game. The ones in this group will already be reading about Matters Aviation on their own, so any ads that they see are just pointers for an idea or decision that has already been formed. Social movements, the perceived complexity of learning to fly, the competition for one's discretionary spending, and the perceived and real cost of flying, along with the perceived and real hassle of finding and getting to a suitable airport/flight school has acted to lessen this market over the years.

3) The "no way, no how" group. Those in this group will never join the aviation ranks, regardless of any persuasive efforts directed their way. Fear, finances, lack of imagination, total lack of interest, and a myriad of other issues will keep them on the ground, regardless of efforts directed toward them.

2) The "gee, I never thought of that" group. This is the untapped market. And it it is easy to be lumped into the #3 group. To illustrate this group, I'll use a personal example. First, let me say that, regarding flying, I was definitely in Group #1. But for another endeavor, I was in Group #2. (For my flight lessons, I walked/hitch-hiked 7 miles to get to the airport. How many would be willing to do that today? How many could do that today?) I grew up in the south central flatlands, with a little bit of ice and snow each winter. I watched the Winter Olympics, so I knew about snow skiing. But I never associated what I was seeing on TV with with any idea of me actually skiing. That idea was so far out of my range of experiences that the link between snow skiing and me was never made. Fast-forward many years. The lady that I was dating (and soon married) asked me if I wanted to join her, her brother, and some friends on a ski trip. A link had just been made; I said, "Sure." The upshot was we made many ski trips over the next several years. To me, this is where the marketing efforts of the GA business community are failing. There seems to be very little effort at planting the seed of the idea of flying, either at the national level or the local levels. The people in this group generally need a push to get them involved in something, but once in, they may very well stay in. The manufacturers seem to be focused on getting existing pilots to upgrade to new expensive aircraft. While that is certainly a valid market niche, it does ignore the just-getting-started market. At the local levels, the flight schools may (or may not) be doing a good job once someone walks through their doors, but very little effort is made in inducing the initial interest and in getting them to walk through the door in the first place. If I were the marketer for the manufacturers, I would be making very public efforts to attract this group's interest. This would eventually provide a payback in future aircraft sales and also provide more opportunities for the flight schools for training activities. If I were marketing for a flight school (small or large), I would be doing advertising, direct mail and newsletters, hosting seminars, making school presentations, offering inexpensive intro flights (a marketing expense, not an operational expense), and a lot more. In other words, I would become much more visible to this group,the ones that are currently not into flying but would be open to it if pushed to do do.

Just my $.02. Unadjusted for inflation.
 
It's expensive and it takes time. I wanted to fly since I was a kid, parents always told me it was too expensive. I wanted to fly when CAP came to the jr. high school to recruit, I was told I couldn't join because my parents didn't want me to join the militaryo_O and it was too expensive:rolleyes:. I wanted to fly when I was in college, but I didn't because my friends told me it was too expensive and I really didn't have any free time. I wanted to fly while I was in the Marines and I started, but immediately had to stop to be deployed. I wanted to fly when I was out, but was going to college and didn't have any money or time for real this time. I wanted to fly when I graduated and got a job, but I had very little time because then I had to take care of a family and travel for work and I still had no money due to my college loans (GI Bill didn't cover it all). Finally one day I woke up at 35 and said screw it all, I am going flying debt and family be damned. Finish my PPL and then didn't fly for 2 years and 4 months, back to paying off school loans.

I would love to fly the schools plane, but it always seems to be a pain to schedule unless I want to step up to a C182. If I want to take it on a trip, I get forced into paying for 3 hours a day. The pilot community around here seems none-existent or tight lipped. Doesn't seem to be any established clubs seeking new members or they don't have the right aircraft (I know of one seeking members, but they have a twin engine plane). There doesn't seem to be any co-ownerships or partnerships. In over three years I have finally found one local selling his share of a aircraft. Contacted him asking to see it in person or some photos, that I was interested. The response was I will try to get around to it sometime. There doesn't appear to be any boards at the local fields allowing people to post such things and haven't seen anything online.

My solution is to start my own partnership, but so far most people that have any kind of interest stop at, "its too expensive", one of them used to fly. Now that I am back flying again, I am trying to offer interested friends rides to help fan their interest. So far, I have one taker who is also bring his two sons that are old enough to get their PPL. Hopefully it will lead them toward aviation at least for fun. My kids love flying and can't wait to go, my wife seems to not care and seems to think its too expensive although I sure more than enough get spent on spring and fall soccer, dance, gymnastics, wine, amazon, Netflix, Xbox, swim lessons, weight watchers (that nobody is using?), cell phones that we really don't need, and she wants to get a boat. It's frustrating.
 
Heck, I was a ‘kid’ when I learned to fly and I knew what I wanted since I came out of the birth canal. It’s one of those things that if you WANT something you’re going to find a way to make it happen.

You’re talking about (.)(.) right? :)
 
I think the booming interest in drones may inspire some of them to consider flying airplane.
 
My limited insight says that that there are many intertwining problems that have led to the overall decline of GA, but I am going to address only one of them as I see it: a total lack of effective marketing, at the national level and the local levels. The blame falls on the aircraft manufacturers, the trade groups, the flight schools. and whoever else has a vested interest in the success of GA. As I see it, almost all of the marketing is of the "preaching to the choir" type.

Regarding aviation, I would simplistically identify the market as being made up of three groups.
1) The "enthusiasts", or those that are taken by the thought of flying an airplane. Those in this group are the self-starters. It doesn't much (or any) prompting for them to get into the game. The ones in this group will already be reading about Matters Aviation on their own, so any ads that they see are just pointers for an idea or decision that has already been formed. Social movements, the perceived complexity of learning to fly, the competition for one's discretionary spending, and the perceived and real cost of flying, along with the perceived and real hassle of finding and getting to a suitable airport/flight school has acted to lessen this market over the years.

3) The "no way, no how" group. Those in this group will never join the aviation ranks, regardless of any persuasive efforts directed their way. Fear, finances, lack of imagination, total lack of interest, and a myriad of other issues will keep them on the ground, regardless of efforts directed toward them.

2) The "gee, I never thought of that" group. This is the untapped market. And it it is easy to be lumped into the #3 group. To illustrate this group, I'll use a personal example. First, let me say that, regarding flying, I was definitely in Group #1. But for another endeavor, I was in Group #2. (For my flight lessons, I walked/hitch-hiked 7 miles to get to the airport. How many would be willing to do that today? How many could do that today?) I grew up in the south central flatlands, with a little bit of ice and snow each winter. I watched the Winter Olympics, so I knew about snow skiing. But I never associated what I was seeing on TV with with any idea of me actually skiing. That idea was so far out of my range of experiences that the link between snow skiing and me was never made. Fast-forward many years. The lady that I was dating (and soon married) asked me if I wanted to join her, her brother, and some friends on a ski trip. A link had just been made; I said, "Sure." The upshot was we made many ski trips over the next several years. To me, this is where the marketing efforts of the GA business community are failing. There seems to be very little effort at planting the seed of the idea of flying, either at the national level or the local levels. The people in this group generally need a push to get them involved in something, but once in, they may very well stay in. The manufacturers seem to be focused on getting existing pilots to upgrade to new expensive aircraft. While that is certainly a valid market niche, it does ignore the just-getting-started market. At the local levels, the flight schools may (or may not) be doing a good job once someone walks through their doors, but very little effort is made in inducing the initial interest and in getting them to walk through the door in the first place. If I were the marketer for the manufacturers, I would be making very public efforts to attract this group's interest. This would eventually provide a payback in future aircraft sales and also provide more opportunities for the flight schools for training activities. If I were marketing for a flight school (small or large), I would be doing advertising, direct mail and newsletters, hosting seminars, making school presentations, offering inexpensive intro flights (a marketing expense, not an operational expense), and a lot more. In other words, I would become much more visible to this group,the ones that are currently not into flying but would be open to it if pushed to do do.

Just my $.02. Unadjusted for inflation.

Richard Collins wrote a post about marketing efforts made by the industry years ago, back when the aviation market was at its peak. What they found was that they response rate was near zero. There are so few people out there who are potentially interested in flying but don't know it yet that it was impossible to reach them in a cost effective basis. Let's face it, the value proposition that GA flying offers is poor enough to where a very limited number of people are willing to take it.
 
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